RSS Twitter

Archive for November, 2010

Wednesday, November 24th, 2010

Mortgage applications bounced back last week on the back of a double-digit increase in purchase applications.

The Mortgage Bankers Association said its market composite index rose 2.1% for the week ended Nov. 19 with a 14.4% gain in purchases, which is the largest increase since May. Refinancing applications fell 1% from the week earlier to the lowest level since June. The composite index rose 1.1% and purchase index climbed 9.6% on an unadjusted basis.

Once again, the numbers represent a large swing from the prior week when the overall index fell 14.4% with a 16.5% drop in refinancings and a 5% decline in purchases, which was the first dip in a month.

"The increase in purchase applications last week aligns with other incoming data suggesting that consumers are feeling somewhat more confident with their financial situation," said Michael Fratantoni, MBA's vice president of research and economics. "While the increase was magnified somewhat by the comparison to the holiday week, the level of purchase applications on a seasonally adjusted basis is now at its highest level since the expiration of the homebuyer tax credit."

In four-week moving averages, the seasonally adjusted market index is down 3.2%, the purchase index is up 4% and the refinance index is down 4.8%. Refinancings accounted for 78.6% of all mortgage applications last week, down from 80.3% the week earlier.

The MBA said the average interest rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage continues to move away from generational lows, rising to 4.5% last week from 4.46%. The average rate for a 15-year fixed mortgage fell to 3.83% from 3.87% a week earlier.

According to the Zillow Mortgage Marketplace weekly update, rates for a 30-year, fixed-mortgage retreated somewhat last week to 4.27%, down from a four-month high of 4.34% the prior week. Earlier in November, the average rate hit a record low of 4.07%, according to Zillow.

Write to Jason Philyaw.

Tuesday, November 23rd, 2010

LeaseTrader.com, a third party car lease database, recently released a report that analyzes the financial stability of an industry by the car leases its industry employees are terminating.

The report found that 43% of Realtors are "escaping" their expensive car leases in 2010, down from 68% in 2008, while 32% of financial executives are following suit, down from 63% in 2008.

Hallelujah, the housing finance industry is stabilizing!

The study sounds loosely correlated, I know. But if we, for a minute, pretend that everyone in industries such as finance, first of all, leases a car (who wants to own now-a-days with all the new models coming out every other day?), and drives a car over $40,000, we could have some true and uplifting data on our hands.

Never mind economic outlooks or market statistics telling us that things are terrible. Forget about low interest rates as a sign of nonexistent demand. Things are good enough that the head honchos on Wall Street no longer have to give up their pretty toys to pay their bills.

Then again, maybe this is just the backlog of Realtors and financial execs who didn't deleverage in 2008.

Write to Christine Ricciardi.

Tuesday, November 23rd, 2010

Half of homeowners who are delinquent on their mortgages would rather rent than buy a home, according to Fannie Mae's third quarter national housing survey.

This is the first time the rental preference has exceeded the percentage of people who would rather buy. Fifty percent said they would rather rent, up 10% from January, while 45% said they would buy a home, down 11% since January.

According to the quarterly survey, 68% of Americans think it's a good time to buy a home, down 2% from the last survey conducted in June, while 29% of Americans think it's a bad time to buy a home, up 3% from June. Eighty-five percent of respondents said they think it is a bad time to sell a home, up 2% from June.

“Consumer attitudes toward buying a home are more negative since last quarter,” said Doug Duncan, vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae. “Our survey shows that Americans’ declining optimism about housing and their personal finances is reinforcing increasingly realistic attitudes toward owning and renting.”

Americans believe rental prices will increase more than home price by a ratio of 4 to 1, according to Fannie Mae, but that won't deter the attractiveness of the market.

Fannie Mae found that an almost equal number of Americans expect home prices to increase in the next year as think prices will decrease, with 25% thinking they will increase (down 6% from the last quarter) and 22% believing they will decrease (up 4%).

Fannie Mae said in its economic outlook that home sales are expected to bottom out during the fourth quarter.

Write to Christine Ricciardi.

Tuesday, November 23rd, 2010

Housing and housing finance present the largest risk to the overall economy, according to Morgan Stanley analysts, who said they were too optimistic last year when they predicted "only a modest recovery in housing" for 2010.

Analysts said there are many options available to fix the nation's "dysfunctional housing and mortgage markets, but the political will to deploy them is scarce."

The analysts suggest additional loan modifications or refinancings, or principal writedowns may help ease the problems facing the industry.

Banks have tightened lending standards and there's a shadow inventory of some 8 million units that create a vicious circle, according to Morgan Stanley. And without substantial policy reform, the imbalance won't correct itself for years and home prices may fall another 10% before reaching bottom in 2012, the analysts said.

Morgan Stanley also said the risk of mortgage putbacks is restricting the supply of credit, as banks are only lending to borrowers with pristine credit and proper housing equity. Still, the analysts expect loan originators to see losses of $85 billion to $165 billion from the putbacks with large-cap banks bearing the burnt of the losses.

Analysts said policymakers should first focus on repairing housing by reducing the supply and demand imbalances and restore market functioning. Then reforms can be implemented "to assure longer-term financial and economic stability."

Write to Jason Philyaw.

Tuesday, November 23rd, 2010

The mid-term elections are over and many new politicians are getting ready to settle into new offices in Washington and many other state capitals, cities, towns and boroughs across the country. Political upheaval is often the byproduct of over-promising change and the lackluster delivery of the same. The new crop of politicians will learn this lesson soon enough, a lesson that most successful loan originators learned long ago. As they do, they'll learn that the sweet smell of success that comes from winning at the polls often has a pretty nasty aftertaste.

If you search for the terms “public service” and “thankless job,” you will find that a great many people have spent time voicing their disdain for the combination of political work and extremely low constituent satisfaction that seems to go into the making of every public service cocktail. Shaken or stirred, it still tastes bad. On the one hand, the American public seems to want government to do everything for them. On the other, they want government to work from a very small footprint and cost nothing. Swish that around in your mouth for a while.

Of course, if you're a mortgage lender, you know exactly what this tastes like. On the one hand, mortgage originators were told to get every American they could into a home and to get as much mortgage product as possible into the conduits that connected them to the big Wall Street firms. After successfully completing that task, the nation's largest investors wrote down all the reasons that they would be given when they asked lenders to buy some of this product back. Meanwhile, the customers, who were never given any weight at all in the mathematical equation of success (as long as they were alive and capable of providing their signature on a bunch of documents) have now emerged as a powerful political and public relations force that is drawing all sorts of negative attention to the firms that survived the crash.

The firms that did the very best job of meeting the success criteria in place during the early years of this century are in the most trouble now from the plaintiff's bar and legislators who demand to know why so many corners were cut and why the system doesn't make more sense to borrowers. Doesn't taste so good, does it?

Of course, politicians and lenders aren't the only professions that typically suffer from chronically low customer satisfaction. Just about any “necessary evil” pursuit falls into the category: the undertakers who bury our dead, the people who put our pets down at the animal shelter, the mechanic who smiles as he hands over the estimate for our most recent car repair. We'd never visit any of these folks if we had our way. In fact, we only do when we don't get our way, which tends to make us mad.

I think it was Garth Graham, back when he was working at Mortgage.com, who first put the thought into words for me. He said, “Rick, nobody wants a home loan. They just want the home.” It's true. The Miracle on 34th Street would have ended quite differently if, instead of a perfect new house the new family found on Christmas day, it was a shiny new pre-qualification letter from a local mortgage lender.

There's a very old saying that suggests that misery loves company. Perhaps that's why legislators are spending so much of their time focusing on the mortgage lending industry. When they get done tinkering, we'll have a brand new agency focused, in part, on the regulation of mortgage lending. We'll also have a shiny new report detailing all of the causes of the financial crash. We'll have a new rule book for the government-sponsored enterprises (I seriously doubt they're going anywhere). We'll have a bunch of new rules, covering just about every part of our business. And, we'll likely have a lot more REO, despite the best efforts of a bunch of attorneys who will at least be well compensated for those efforts.

All of these changes will carry with them a promise that the American public will take to mean that the evils that came to their homes during the most recent financial meltdown will never visit them again. That may smell sweet to many Americans and make many politicians proud, for awhile.

It won't last. Qualifying for a loan will get tougher, costs will continue to go up, the cost of compliance will drive more firms from the business. Trying to solve a communication problem by layering on additional compliance steps in typical government fashion will succeed about as well as it ever has and, eventually, politicians and homeowners will learn what most mortgage lenders already know. There's a nasty aftertaste that will doubtless follow that thankless job.

Rick Grant is veteran journalist covering mortgage technology and the financial industry.

Follow him on Twitter: @NYRickGrant

Tuesday, November 23rd, 2010

After a one-week turn around in mortgage rates, the 30-year, fixed-mortgage rate fell again to 4.27%, according to the Zillow Mortgage Marketplace weekly update.

This is still 20 basis points above the historical low hit two weeks ago.

Zillow said the current 15-year, fixed-average rate is 3.64% and the rate for a 5-1 adjustable rate mortgage is 3.03%. That type of mortgage maintains a steady rate for five years and then is adjusted annually thereafter.

Regionally, 30-year rates vary, but the majority of states witnessed a decline. California's average rate dropped to 4.23% last week from 4.36% prior. Rates in New York also fell substantially to 4.23% from 4.34% the previous week, while Pennsylvania's rate decreased to 4.25% from 4.41%, and Washington saw its average rate slump to 4.26% from 4.32%.

The current rate in Texas increased week-over-week, up to 4.32% from 4.31% last week, as is Florida's, up to 4.27% from 4.25%

Rates in Massachusetts remained at 4.35%.

Zillow bases its averages on real-time mortgage quotes from lenders registered with the company. The national average comes from thousands of daily quotes by anonymous borrowers through the Seattle-based company's website.

Write to Christine Ricciardi.

Tuesday, November 23rd, 2010

Moody's Investors Service continues revamping ratings on Alt-A, adjustable-rate residential mortgage-backed securities with the downgrade of 272 tranches of debt issued by Countrywide Financial.

Analysts also confirmed ratings of 15 tranches from 38 transactions of option ARM loans sold by the failed lender. The combined value of the securities is $19.1 billion.

Bank of America (BAC: 7.29 -0.14%) acquired Countrywide in 2008. In October, former Countrywide CEO Angelo Mozilo agreed to pay a record $67.5 million penalty to settle Securities and Exchange Commission charges that he and two other former executives misled investors by overrating the credit strength of borrowers of their subprime mortgages.

Moody's said the "rapidly deteriorating performance" of option ARM pools coupled with the macroeconomic conditions that remain "under duress" prompted the most-recent ratings changes.

Earlier this year, the ratings agency also updated loss expectations on these types of loans that were issued from 2005 to 2007. Most of the lowered ratings on the Countrywide RMBS slid further down the noninvestment grade chain to Moody's single-C categories. Any rating below triple-B is considered junk. When the credit crisis first began to unfold, rating agencies often maintained the quality of triple-A ratings. But as ratings criteria tightened, subprime RMBS tranches bore the brunt.

Moody's said continued high levels of unemployment and housing market weakness perpetuate uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment. And analysts continue to see "increasing potential for a double-dip recession, which could cause a further 20% decline in home prices."

Last week, Ambac Financial Group said it sued a handful of trusts, including many Countrywide entities, that sold MBS, claiming the sponsors of the debt misrepresented the securities at the time of the sale. Ambac's main operating unit also is reviewing a number of loans included in RMBS it insures to see if there are "breaches of representations and warranties made by the sponsors of such securities" when they were issued.

Write to Jason Philyaw.

Tuesday, November 23rd, 2010

The Federal Reserve slashed its outlook for the U.S. economy for this year and 2011 and projected that it could take several years for the economy to return to health.

According to minutes from the Fed's November 3 meeting released Tuesday, more than half of the central bank's policymakers thought it would take about five or six years for unemployment, growth and inflation to return to more normal levels. Other Fed members warned the full recovery could take even longer than that.

The much weaker forecast is the major reason that policymakers decided earlier this month to announce a plan to try and jumpstart growth by pumping an additional $600 billion into the economy through the purchase of long-term bonds.

Tuesday, November 23rd, 2010

First a safe and happy holiday to all.

This week The IRA is evolving to a formal listseve for distribution. Readers of The IRA will now be able to manage their subscriptions directly. We'll also be making some changes to the landing zones for the professional and consumer web sites in coming days. Comments are always welcome.

The Federal Reserve, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp and Office of the Comptroller recently held a meeting to discuss the requirements of the Dodd-Frank law to remove all references to the rating agencies from the law. The meeting hosted by Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo, FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair and acting Comptroller John Walsh, specifically focused on ANPR OCC-2010-0016 from the OCC which asks a series of questions about how to essentially replace the use of third-party ratings in the regulatory process.

It seems fair to say that the Dodd-Frank legislation has created a big operational problem for regulators, who generally view the current system of quasi-monopolies that provide credit ratings to banks and other investors as adequate. As we stated in our written comments, generally speaking the rating agencies and broader analytics community have done a reasonably good job in assessing the credit risk of "plain vanilla," SEC registered corporate, municipal and RMBS/CMBS securities in the secondary market going back more than a century. Less so with banks and sovereigns where politics plays a bigger role. And obviously the excursion into the primary market for exotic subprime mortgage securitizations and CDOs was a very bad idea.

Tuesday, November 23rd, 2010

A federal grand jury in Kansas City has indicted nine people in an $11 million mortgage fraud scheme that touched properties in half a dozen area communities.

Prosecutors alleged Monday that the conspiracy ran from early 2005 to August 2006 and involved more than $11 million in loans on 16 homes in Lee’s Summit, Liberty, Blue Springs, Parkville, Independence and Oak Grove.

The lenders did not know that home buyers received more than $2 million from the loan proceeds, the indictment alleged.



Origination/Lending
Kenneth Bacon, executive vice president of the Fannie Mae multifamily mortgage business, is retiring after 18 years at the mortgage...

Read More »

Servicing/Default
The serious delinquency rate for Federal Housing Administration mortgages reached 9.6% in December, the highest level in more than two...

Read More »