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Archive for November, 2010

Wednesday, November 17th, 2010
The scariest number for anyone invested in the real estate market is this: 23.2%. That's the record-high share of mortgages that are now underwater, as estimated by Zillow.

Negative equity is the prime factor driving a record number of mortgage holders into delinquency. Delinquencies will lead to foreclosures, which will drive down home prices, creating more negative equity — a very dangerous cycle.

In some parts of America, a gob smacking percentage of homes are underwater. In Las Vegas, for instance, four out of five mortgages are now underwater.

Wednesday, November 17th, 2010

The Dodd-Frank bill has "eroded" the benefits of the federal thrift charter and it's unclear if existing institutions will "prosper" under the supervision of the Office of Comptroller of the Currency, according to the current thrift regulator.

Office of Thrift Supervision acting director John Bowman noted that state regulators are trying to persuade thrift managers to convert to a state bank charter.

"Only time will tell how many OTS-regulated thrifts choose state supervision over the OCC, or decide to stay with OCC, but eventually abandon their thrift charters in favor of national bank charters," Bowman said at an international financial conference in Tokyo.

Wednesday, November 17th, 2010

Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., the investment bank in bankruptcy since 2008, sued Nationsfirst Lending Inc. alleging it failed to honor contracts to repurchase faulty mortgage loans.

Some of the loans misrepresented borrowers’ identities and occupancy intentions, and involved kickbacks to an unlicensed loan officer in a purported “sale by owner” contract, Lehman said in a complaint filed Nov. 12 in federal court in Santa Ana, California.

Nationsfirst “has refused, and continues to refuse, to repurchase the mortgage loans” and “to indemnify Lehman” for unspecified losses, Lehman lawyers said in the complaint.

Wednesday, November 17th, 2010

Fitch Ratings plans to look more closely at property valuations and loss-coverage multiples when assigning ratings for fixed-rate commercial mortgage-backed securities transactions.

Analysts said key tenets of the agency's fixed-rate CMBS methodology remain the same, but further downgrades are expected especially in the middle to lower part of the capital structure of the space.

"CMBS portfolio performance deteriorated significantly in 2009-2010 after exhibiting relatively benign performance in 2007-2008," analysts said. "Income levels across Fitch's rated portfolios declined by approximately 16% from year-end 2008 to year-end 2009 and specially serviced loans and loans of concern increased significantly during 2010."

Moody's Investors Service has downgraded tens of billions of dollars worth of CMBS the past few months because of higher expected losses for the pools due to increased delinquencies from troubled loans. Still, some analysts think CMBS stand to benefit the most from the Federal Reserve's decision to purchase another $600 billion of Treasury securities, which has become known as QE2.

Fitch plans to add a new performing loan stress test to the term and maturity stresses already in place for the securities to "better address new and future transactions, of which Fitch expects to see significant growth." And Fitch will now base property valuations "on a capped income approach rather than a static market value decline to reflect improvements in portfolio data."

Analysts also added a deterministic test to assess pools that have poor diversity or high concentrations of what Fitch considers risky assets, and loss-coverage multiples were changed to accommodate for movement through the current stress cycle.

The current stressed-loan calculations for loans that fail maturity stress tests will be adjusted by their debt-service coverage ratio instead of time to maturity, Fitch said.

Write to Jason Philyaw.

Wednesday, November 17th, 2010

Homebuilder's confidence in the housing market rose slightly in November as prospective buyers gave more consideration to making a purchase.

The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo (WFC: 29.60 +1.89%) Market Index, increased one notch to 16 in November from the previous month. The index measures builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and expectations for the next six months. Any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good.

"Many builders are reporting that while the quantity of buyer traffic through their model homes has not improved dramatically, the quality of that traffic seems to be getting better – meaning that more people appear to be serious about buying in the near future," NAHB Chairman Bob Jones said.

Analysts at Fiserv and Standard & Poor's hold a less rosier view. Both issued reports this week forecasting a further drop in home prices of at least 7% as demand shrivels.

The home sales expectation component of the homebuilder index rose two points to 25 in November. The outlook for gauging prospective buyer traffic rose one point to 12, but was unchanged at 16 for current sales.

Still Jones said homebuilders continue to fret about financing new construction.

"Builders remain very concerned, however, about the lack of available financing for new-home construction at a time when inventories of completed new homes are quite thin; after all, you can't sell what you can't build," Jones said.

Write to Jon Prior.

Wednesday, November 17th, 2010

Southern California home sales dropped in October to their lowest level in three years amid doubts about the drawn-out housing recovery, tight mortgage lending and the expired homebuyer tax credit.

The median price paid for a home rose on a year-over-year basis for the 11th consecutive month, but was the year’s smallest increase with just a 1.1% uptick in pricing over October 2009, according to MDA DataQuick of San Diego.

The percentage of sales that were foreclosures declined from year-ago figures, the company said.

A total of 16,744 new and resale homes sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties last month, down 7.4% from 18,091 in September, and down 24.3% from 22,132 in October 2009.

MDA DataQuick said last month’s sales were the lowest for an October since 2007, when 12,913 homes sold, and the second-lowest since 1988, when DataQuick’s statistics begin.

"In addition to a lousy economy, the housing market still has a couple of nasty bottlenecks it has to contend with," said John Walsh, MDA DataQuick president. "First, sales of newly built homes are at a low, mostly because builders can’t build at a low enough price to compete with the inventory of resale homes, many of which are short sales or foreclosures."

"Also, lenders still haven’t opened the mortgage money spigot for buying move-up and prestige properties. These properties have come down in value by about half as much as entry-level homes. But trying to finance a higher-end purchase can be a real grind, even for well-qualified buyers," he said.

The median price paid for a Southern California home was $283,000 in October, down 4.2% from $295,500 in September, and up 1.1% from $280,000 in October 2009.

Foreclosure resales accounted for 34.7% of the resale market in October, up slightly from a revised 33.6% in September but down from 40.4% a year ago. The all-time high was 56.7% in February 2009, DataQuick reported.

Government-insured FHA loans accounted for 35.8% of all mortgages used to purchase homes in October, relatively flat from September and a year ago.

Absentee buyers — mostly investors and some second-home purchasers — bought 21.8% of the homes sold in Southern California in October, paying a median of $204,500. Buyers who appeared to have paid all cash – with no indication that a mortgage was recorded — accounted for 27.1% of October sales.

Flipping — buying and reselling a home within a six-month period — accounted for 3.7% of the sales, flat with September but up from 2.9% a year earlier.

Write to Kerry Curry.

Wednesday, November 17th, 2010

National home prices fell for the second-straight month in September after rising, albeit slightly in some cases, in the first six months of 2010, according to the CoreLogic (CLGX: 14.56 +0.62%) home price index.

The data analytics company said its HPI fell 2.8% in September from a year earlier, following a revised drop of  1.1% in August. Excluding sales of distressed properties, home prices decreased 0.73% from the year-ago September.

"We’re continuing to see price declines across the board with all but seven states seeing a decrease in home prices," said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic. "This continued and widespread decline will put further pressure on negative equity and stall the housing recovery."

CoreLogic said its HPI is now down more than 29% since peaking in April 2006. Excluding distressed sales, home prices are down nearly 20% over that time.

The five hardest-hit states in September include Idaho, which saw prices drop 14%, Alabama 9%, Mississippi 8.3%, Florida 7.7%, and New Mexico 7.5%. (Click on chart to expand.)

Five states experienced increases of less than 1% in home prices for September: Maine 0.38%, Alaska 0.44%, Virginia 0.77%, Nebraska 0.78% and California 0.86%. North Dakota at 1.73% and New York at 2.67% saw the largest home-price gains of the month, according to CoreLogic.

Earlier this week, Standard & Poor's said home prices will drop between 7% and 10% through 2011, erasing any improvements prices have recently made. And Fiserv, a financial services technology provider, said it expects a 7.1% drop over the next 12 months with some markets falling into a double-dip.

Write to Jason Philyaw.

Wednesday, November 17th, 2010

Mortgage Cadence, a mortgage software firm, integrated the newly launched Fannie Mae EarlyCheck technology platform directly into its own origination system — the company first to do so, Mortgage Cadence said.

Users can now check details on their loan application without leaving Mortgage Cadence's origination system, Mortgage Cadence Orchestrator.

EarlyCheck was developed as part of Fannie's Loan Quality Initiative, designed to prevent bad loans from being funded. The system allows lenders to validate data on a loan application at any point during the origination process. EarlyCheck was released in late September.

In another effort to promote compliance with government-sponsored enterprise rules, CoreLogic Credco released an origination suite Tuesday called FinalCheck. The suite consists of three systems to verify borrower data and help lenders satisfy data requirements set forth the GSEs on loan applications.

John Bauer with CoreLogic Credco  said the suite will reduce the number of rejections from the GSEs.

"Nearly 6% of applicants will have their debt-to-income increase by more than 3% between pre-qualification and pre-funding, making those loans a candidate for rejection or a buyback. An additional 6.83% of loan applicants will have a debt-to-income that exceeds 45% at pre-funding, putting those loans at risk as well," Bauer said. "The FinalCheck suite of products plays a critical, proactive role in monitoring debt-to-income ratios and other loan risk factors that could surface just prior to loan submission."

The first piece of the suite, CreditCheck, performs a “gap” analysis on credit information between pre-approval and prefunding. The second system is AppCheck, which searches against proprietary CoreLogic loan application databases and the Mortgage Electronic Registration Systems, or MERS, for undisclosed loans. FraudCheck is the final part of the suite and verifies that neither the borrower or loan participants are on a Department of Housing and Urban Development or other investor exclusionary list.

Corelogic Credco is a division of financial analytics firm CoreLogic (CLGX: 14.56 +0.62%).

Write to Christine Ricciardi.

Disclosure: The author holds no relevant investments.

Wednesday, November 17th, 2010

Calling for increased private-sector involvement in housing finance, James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis said mortgage financing "turned out to be an exceptionally weak link" as the current economic crisis unfolded.

Hosting a conference to discuss the role of government-sponsored enterprises in mortgage finance, Bullard said Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac don’t work as they were intended to and the "current situation (is) an opportunity to reform housing finance according to best principles and sound lending practices."

"To the extent possible, we need to let the private sector provide the bulk of U.S. housing finance going forward, without the incentive-distorting set of government programs and taxpayer guarantees that caused our current system to collapse," Bullard said. "Those programs meant well, but ended up costing everyone dearly."

He said the private sector may be able to allocate credit more efficiently and better shelter taxpayers from insolvency risk. The continual changes in the size and scope of the federal programs also hurt the market.

"The extent of congressional meddling in this market has been astonishing to the point where one can barely identify what the private sector outcomes would be in the absence of intervention," Bullard said. "It makes little sense to try to design programs that subsidize everyone. If everyone is subsidized, then no one is subsidized."

Bullard, who is a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, wants to see subsidies to lower-income and first-time buyers disentangled from housing finance and more broadly defined. He also wants the subsidies to be reviewed regularly and subject to congressional approval for appropriation of funds. He suggested folding these functions into the Department of Housing and Urban Development.

He believes loan-to-value ratios of 80% or less adequately insure against most housing price fluctuations. Additionally, homeowners with higher loan-to-value ratios "could be required to purchase default insurance or to increase the amortization component of their mortgage payments."

Increased transparency and insurance requirements may also improve the system, according to Bullard. Home loans bundled into mortgage-backed securities should be constrained to loans with average principal balances and loan-to-value ratios of 80%. And in an attempt "to avoid one-sided bets, financial intermediaries could be required to purchase insurance or otherwise appropriately hedge their MBS portfolios.

Write to Jason Philyaw.

Wednesday, November 17th, 2010

A fund to compensate homeowners caught in the foreclosure robo-signing scandal is being considered but is not a done deal, according to Iowa Attorney General Tom Miller's office.

A spokesman for Miller's office told HousingWire that a fund is not currently being set up but is "one of many options being considered."

Major lenders including Bank of America (BAC: 7.29 -0.14%), JPMorgan Chase (JPM: 37.21 -0.75%), Ally Financial (GJM: 22.57 0.00%) and Wells Fargo (WFC: 29.60 +1.89%) are under a joint investigation from the 50-state attorneys general and 11 federal regulators for allegedly signing foreclosure affidavits en masse and without properly reviewing the documentation.

Miller's office is leading the AG investigation.

"It’s very early, there are no details, and this is by no means a done deal," the spokesman said. "Again, it’s a preliminary discussion on one of many potential options."

At any rate, aggrieved homeowners should not get their hopes up, as sources involved in logistical management of issues such as this say that such a fund, if approved, would take a long time to finance.

Testifying before the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee Tuesday, Miller said the AGs do not view robo-signing as a technical issue, rather an affront to state courts.

"We view this as a chance to solve some or much of this problem that has built over the last three years," Miller said. "We want to figure out a way that leaves the situation a lot better than when the mess started."

Write to Jon Prior.



Origination/Lending
Kenneth Bacon, executive vice president of the Fannie Mae multifamily mortgage business, is retiring after 18 years at the mortgage...

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Servicing/Default
The serious delinquency rate for Federal Housing Administration mortgages reached 9.6% in December, the highest level in more than two...

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