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Archive for September, 2010

Wednesday, September 29th, 2010

The continued disruption in the commercial real estate space may be about to claim a new victim. An email from Fitch Ratings today warns that iStar Financial — a real estate investment trust with $11 billion of undepreciated assets and $2.2 billion of undepreciated book equity — is facing imminent default.

"Absent a significant improvement in commercial real estate fundamentals which would result in iStar receiving a substantial amount of loan repayments from its borrowers, it is inevitable that the company will need to effect a coercive debt exchange (CDE) with its second lien noteholders to avoid bankruptcy," according to the email from Fitch Ratings.

In an email from iStar, Andrew Backman, the senior vice president of investor relations downplayed the significance of the Fitch declaration. "Fitch stated that if the company effected a coercive debt exchange (CDE) with its second lien note holders, Fitch would consider it a default as outlined in Fitch's global criteria report Coercive Debt Exchange Criteria," he said. "A Fitch default is not a default under any of our loan agreements.  iStar continues to operate its business as usual.  We have ample near-term liquidity and we continue to assess all of our various options to re-align our asset and liability maturities."

Fitch has now downgraded iStar’s Issuer Default Rating (IDR) as follows:

–IDR to 'C' from 'CC';
–First priority credit agreement to ‘B-/RR1’ from ‘B/RR1’;
–Second priority credit agreement to ‘CCC/RR2’ from ‘B-/RR2’;
–2011 second lien notes to ‘CCC/RR2’ from ‘B-/RR2’;
–2014 second lien notes to ‘CCC/RR2’ from ‘B-/RR2’.

Fitch has affirmed the following security ratings at their current level, as ‘C’ is the lowest assigned financial obligation rating:

–Unsecured revolving credit facilities at 'C/RR5';
–Senior unsecured notes at 'C/RR5';
–Convertible senior floating-rate notes at 'C/RR5';
–Preferred stock at 'C/RR6'.

Fitch’s estimates of iStar's liquidity to currently be in a substantial cash shortfall.

The rating actions are also driven by continued weakening of the quality of iStar's loan portfolio. For the quarter ended June 30, 2010, iStar recognized $109 million of loan loss provisions, and iStar has recognized over $750 million of loan loss provisions over the last 12 months. As of June 30, 2010, non-performing and watch list loans collectively represented nearly 54% of iStar's total gross loan portfolio, compared with 50% as of June 30, 2009.

"Challenging property-level fundamentals, combined with the decline in commercial real estate values over the past several years, have decreased the ability of iStar's borrowers to repay loans," Fitch states. The rating agency predicts iStar will have trouble monetizing its portfolio in the current environment. And facing a liquidity deficit of over $2 billion may lead to an inability to fund obligations from upcoming debt maturities over the next 24 months.

58% of iStar's unencumbered loans and other lending investments are non-performing, Fitch added.

Write to Jacob Gaffney.

Wednesday, September 29th, 2010

In an attempt to ignite the sedated secondary market, Bank of America (BAC: 7.29 -0.14%) and privately held United Midwest Savings Bank have bundled first-mortgage loans into pools for securitization.

Bank of America pooled about $32.1 million of loans purchased from other lenders and United Midwest assembled a pool of nearly $8 million, according to the Small Business Administration.

This marks the initial attempt to provide some liquidity to lenders through MBS or fixed-asset financing under the First Mortgage Loan Pooling program that is part of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act passed last year.

The SBA will back about $25.7 million of the loans in the BofA pools and $6.4 million of the United Midwest pools. The federal agency provides a government guarantee on pools of eligible 504 first-mortgage loans assembled by approved originators who sell them to third-party investors. Lenders retain at least 15% of each loan, pool originators assume 5% of the risk, and the SBA guarantees the remaining 80%.

"The 504 loan pool guarantee program is one more tool we've added to SBA's toolbox to expand access to capital for America's small businesses," SBA administrator Karen Mills said. "By jump starting the 504 secondary market, more banks will have greater opportunity to strengthen their liquidity and in turn increase their lending to small businesses and entrepreneurs."

Write to Jason Philyaw.

Wednesday, September 29th, 2010

The U.S. Department of the Treasury announced today intentions to sell trust preferred securities (TRUPS) it acquired from Citigroup (C: 30.87 +1.61%) during the bailout in 2009. The sale will constitute a complete net profit gain under the Asset Guarantee Program. Citi will not receive any of the proceeds.

The Asset Guarantee Program is part of the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act and allows the Treasury to hold assets for financial institutions critical to the function of the nation's financial system for a premium. In January 2009, the Treasury alongside the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, the Federal Reserve and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, signed a shared-loss agreement with Citi to absorb potential losses of $301 billion.

Citi agreed to pay a dividend payment of 8% on the government preferred stock.

The TRUPS the Treasury is now trying to sell were part of that agreement. The agreement also included 7.7 billion shares of Citi's common stock.

Citi terminated the shared-loss agreement in December 2009 following the completion of a $20 billion securities offering and repayment to the Troubled Asset Relief Fund, which canceled $1.8 billion worth of TRUPS originally allocated to the government. The Treasury kept $2.2 billion of the premium which was originally $4 billion in securities.

It said that, because the Treasury was "never required to make any payment under the arrangement and has no further obligation to do so, all proceeds from the sale will constitute a net gain to the taxpayer under the [AGP] program."

The offering does not include $800 million in TRUPS held by the FDIC. Those assets are required to be turned over to the Treasury unless they incur any losses on debt of Citigroup guaranteed by the FDIC under the Temporary Liquidity Guarantee Program. It also doesn't include the warrants for Citigroup's common stock issued under the AGP or the 7.7 billion shares of government common stock, which the Treasury has been disposing of separately.

The Treasury currently owns about 18% of Citigroup's shares.

BofA Merrill Lynch, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, UBS Investment Bank, and Wells Fargo Securities will act as joint lead managers for the offering.  Citigroup Global Markets Inc. will act as global coordinator but not as an underwriter or a sales agent.

Write to Christine Ricciardi.

Wednesday, September 29th, 2010

While the recession officially ended in June 2009, the recovery is in a tender stage still "vulnerable to shocks," a Federal Reserve economist told business leaders Wednesday.

"It is going to be a long, slow recovery," said Harvey Rosenblum, executive vice president and director of research at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. In fact, it doesn't yet feel like the recession has ended for many because of the slow growth. Rosenblum spoke at a real estate symposium sponsored by the North Dallas Chamber of Commerce.

Consumer confidence is still low with people concerned that their wages could decline in the coming months, he said, and a double dip in housing remains a concern as home prices continue to fall.

Housing prices, he said, may have another year or two to let out the air that was in the bubble.

Inflation, or the lack thereof, is also a concern to the nation's economists. Inflation, currently at a rate of about 1%, is expected to stay steady. While the Fed usually complains that inflation is too high, now it is concerned that it is too low and is aiming for it to come in at a higher rate, Rosenblum said.

Low inflation with declining inflation trend could mean a rising deflation "tail-risk," he said.

Rosenblum said the economy is suffering from a "post-bubble disorder" that very well could have deflationary consequences. The major housing and financial crises suffered over the past couple of years have affected the strength of the recovery, he said. Because of that, the economy is growing at about half the rate that it would have normally coming out of a recession.

Manufacturing is leading the nation's recovery while services growth, although coming back, isn't as robust as the manufacturing sector. Jobs are growing at a rate of more than 2% in Texas compared to less than 1% nationally.

Most economists expect the unemployment rate to continue to decline as the recovery takes hold, but business owners shouldn't expect sharp declines but rather a slow jobs recovery.

Companies that are more internationally focused have fared better than companies focused solely on the U.S. economy, he said.

Rosenblum did wear a yellow tie to his speech as a metaphor, he said, that things are sunnier right now than they have been in a long time.

"We are getting back on the track," he said, "there were a lot of excesses," he said noting the housing bubble and questionable mortgages during the heyday of the housing boom. "We are making some critical adjustments to things that were unsustainable."

But he also questioned whether further stimulus was the way to propel the economy forward.

"We are like drug addicts waiting for more stimulus to make things happen," he said. We are finding the need for "a bigger and bigger dose to get the same effect." Washington, he noted, is divided on whether the nation needs more or less stimulus.

And that uncertainty has businesses sitting on the sidelines, unsure of what to do, he said, predicting that "the fog" may lift by next spring when the nation has a better feel for who is in power. The cost of doing business, whether via health care reform or tax changes bandied about by Congress, has them on hold. That, he said, is nothing the Fed can do anything about.

Write to Kerry Curry.

Wednesday, September 29th, 2010

Fitch Ratings is contacting its rated servicers to review internal foreclosure processes after recent problems at GMAC Mortgage will cause higher losses on residential mortgage-backed securities.

Last week, GMAC, now Ally Financial, admitted employees signed foreclosure affidavits in 23 states without knowledge of the documents or a notary present. Moody's Investors Service put its servicer rating and billions of dollars in affected RMBS up for review. Several state attorneys general offices have launched investigations.

Fitch said high loss severities already projected on defaulted loans in those 23 states will limit any further rating downgrades on affected RMBS exposed to these loans. But the credit rating agency said probes into the foreclosure process could lead to servicer downgrades.

"Any servicer with a significant portion of their portfolio in judicial foreclosure states will be either directly or indirectly impacted by the attention focused on this problem," said Diane Pendley, managing director and head of U.S. RMBS operational risk for Fitch.

While Fitch said the problems at GMAC could be a result of high foreclosure volumes, a servicer's rating will be downgraded if it is determined that its process is not adequate.

Fitch will look at the operational deficiencies at each servicer, including its impact on the portfolio of existing foreclosure inventory. Fitch will also monitor the risk of broader foreclosure moratoriums and class action suits that would weigh on a servicer's financial condition.

If Fitch finds that a servicer has filed deficient foreclosure affidavits like GMAC did, it will expect an amended filing, a simple substitution for active foreclosures but may prove more difficult on completed cases. These longer liquidation time lines and higher legal costs may lead to higher loss severities for affected RMBS transactions.

Write to Jon Prior.

Wednesday, September 29th, 2010

Consumers are practically shrugging off the lowest mortgage rates in history.

They have their reasons for hesitating to buy homes or to refinance existing mortgages, freeing up cash to spend:

Eleven million residential properties are worth less than the mortgages on them. Nearly 15 million Americans are unemployed.

Millions more are worried about their jobs; and still more are determined to cut their spending and pay down their debts, ignoring the siren song of cheap money.

Wednesday, September 29th, 2010

A survey released yesterday on the subject of the markets’ expectation for the future size Federal Reserve balance sheet has me curious regarding what another round of quantitative easing (QE) would mean for the equity markets. 70% of survey respondents believe the Federal Reserve will resume QE with the average expected increase in balance sheet size being $500 billion.

Several people have already weighed in with their opinion on what QE2 would mean for the markets. David Tepper, president & founder of Appaloosa Management, says there are only two scenarios (h/t pragcap.com):

1. The economy improves and stocks rise; or
2. The economy will decline and the Fed will induce a rally in stocks via QE.

According to David Rosenberg, chief economist at Gluskin Sheff, Tepper is forgetting a third scenario in where,

“the economy weakens to such an extent that the Fed does indeed re-engage in QE, but that it does not work. So the “E” goes down and the P/E multiple does not expand.”

Wednesday, September 29th, 2010

Most policymakers in Washington agree the economy needs help.

One problem: The subject dominating the economic policy debate right now — the Bush tax cuts — ranks low among temporary measures that might offer the best bang for the buck.

And making the tax cuts permanent without paying for them would be expensive and could constrain the country's economic growth prospects in the medium- and long-term.

Those are two key points that Douglas Elmendorf, director of the Congressional Budget Office, offered to the Senate Budget Committee on Tuesday.

Wednesday, September 29th, 2010

Are you delinquent on your first mortgage but still making monthly payments on your home-equity credit line or second mortgage?

If so, a finance and real estate professor from DePaul University has some controversial advice for you: Stop paying on your second immediately.

Rebel Cole believes you are simply throwing good money after bad. If you are seriously delinquent on the first mortgage, you're likely headed for foreclosure unless both of your lenders agree on a modification or principal-reduction plan. But because you continue to make payments on the second, the bank that holds that revenue-producing note might have minimal motivation to participate in a workout, he thinks. Cole estimates that between 1 million and 3 million homeowners are in this position nationwide — making it a big problem.

Wednesday, September 29th, 2010

While Fannie Mae issuance declined in August, the government-sponsored enterprise's gross mortgage portfolio increased 3.8% from a year ago.

The Fannie Mae gross mortgage portfolio reached $809.1 billion in August, up 3.8% from $779.4 billion a year ago. It did drop at a compound annualized rate of 4.1% in August.

Fannie Mae reported $47.9 billion of total issuance of mortgage-backed securities in August, down 22.7% from a year ago but a 12.2% increase from the previous month. Its MBS issuance peaked in June 2009 at more than $130 billion.

The serious delinquency rate in the Fannie Mae portfolio dropped for the fifth month in a row to 4.82% in July, the latest month of available data, from 4.99% in June. It’s still 65 basis points above the rate last year.

Today, the House Committee on Financial Services is holding a hearing on the future of the GSEs.

Michael Bodaken, president of the National Housing Trust will say in written testimony released yesterday that the serious delinquency rate on Fannie and Freddie Mac single-family mortgages rose from 3% in 2005 to 11.5% in 2009.

Write to Jon Prior.



Origination/Lending
Kenneth Bacon, executive vice president of the Fannie Mae multifamily mortgage business, is retiring after 18 years at the mortgage...

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Servicing/Default
The serious delinquency rate for Federal Housing Administration mortgages reached 9.6% in December, the highest level in more than two...

Read More »