Archive for September, 2010
Consumers are practically shrugging off the lowest mortgage rates in history.
They have their reasons for hesitating to buy homes or to refinance existing mortgages, freeing up cash to spend:
Eleven million residential properties are worth less than the mortgages on them. Nearly 15 million Americans are unemployed.
Millions more are worried about their jobs; and still more are determined to cut their spending and pay down their debts, ignoring the siren song of cheap money.
A survey released yesterday on the subject of the markets’ expectation for the future size Federal Reserve balance sheet has me curious regarding what another round of quantitative easing (QE) would mean for the equity markets. 70% of survey respondents believe the Federal Reserve will resume QE with the average expected increase in balance sheet size being $500 billion.
Several people have already weighed in with their opinion on what QE2 would mean for the markets. David Tepper, president & founder of Appaloosa Management, says there are only two scenarios (h/t pragcap.com):
1. The economy improves and stocks rise; or
2. The economy will decline and the Fed will induce a rally in stocks via QE.
According to David Rosenberg, chief economist at Gluskin Sheff, Tepper is forgetting a third scenario in where,
“the economy weakens to such an extent that the Fed does indeed re-engage in QE, but that it does not work. So the “E” goes down and the P/E multiple does not expand.”
Most policymakers in Washington agree the economy needs help.
One problem: The subject dominating the economic policy debate right now — the Bush tax cuts — ranks low among temporary measures that might offer the best bang for the buck.
And making the tax cuts permanent without paying for them would be expensive and could constrain the country's economic growth prospects in the medium- and long-term.
Those are two key points that Douglas Elmendorf, director of the Congressional Budget Office, offered to the Senate Budget Committee on Tuesday.
Are you delinquent on your first mortgage but still making monthly payments on your home-equity credit line or second mortgage?
If so, a finance and real estate professor from DePaul University has some controversial advice for you: Stop paying on your second immediately.
Rebel Cole believes you are simply throwing good money after bad. If you are seriously delinquent on the first mortgage, you're likely headed for foreclosure unless both of your lenders agree on a modification or principal-reduction plan. But because you continue to make payments on the second, the bank that holds that revenue-producing note might have minimal motivation to participate in a workout, he thinks. Cole estimates that between 1 million and 3 million homeowners are in this position nationwide — making it a big problem.












