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Archive for September, 2010

Wednesday, September 22nd, 2010

While many market participants provided a somewhat rosier outlook for home prices in a new survey, the average of the respondents still projects a 2.2% decline in the second half of the year.

MacroMarkets said data from its September home price expectations survey show market analysts expect a 0.8% drop in home prices the full year with no improvement next year. Previous surveys showed steeper declines.

“For the first time since May when we started conducting this survey, the consensus from our expert panel shows some improvement in the outlook for nationwide home prices in 2010,” said Robert Shiller, MacroMarkets co-founder and chief economist. "These survey results and other recent housing market data are consistent with a scenario of downward-correcting prices in the wake of unsustainable, tax incentive-induced second-quarter performance.”

Terry Loebs, MacroMarkets managing director, said other data from the survey indicates the housing market "remains unusually risky in the near-to-intermediate term."

The survey of 114 economists, real estate experts, investment and market strategists is conducted monthly and based upon the projected path of the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index over the coming five years.

Write to Jason Philyaw.

Wednesday, September 22nd, 2010

In the wake of reform enacted to promote homeownership, analysts at the Center for Economic and Policy Research are saying that ownership may not be the smartest option. In a report released today, The Gains from Right to Rent in 2010, the CEPR suggests that giving homeowners the right to rent their house at a fair market price could be a game changer in the nation's foreclosure crisis.

The report dissects the benefits of a drafted bill, H.R. 5028, also known as The Right to Rent. Under the legislation, homeowners entering the foreclosure process would be able to occupy their homes for up to five years, while paying rent to a lender. Rent would be based on fair market price as determined by an independent appraiser and adjusted annually.

"This would give homeowners an important degree of security, since they could not simply be thrown out on the streets," wrote Dean Baker and Hye Jin Rho, co-director of and research assistant at CEPR. "This policy should also benefit neighborhoods in the most hard-hit areas, since they would not have large numbers of vacant homes following foreclosures."

The CEPR report, which compares the costs of owning a home and renting in 16 major metropolitan statistical areas around the U.S., found that homeowners would see substantial reductions in costs by becoming renters if they rented in a bubble-inflated market. Savings are much less, however, if the market was not affected by the housing bubble.

For example, in the Los Angeles MSA, homeowners would save $1,586 per month by becoming a tenant. The median home price in 2006 and 2007 was $608,600. Based on that number, CEPR found the monthly cost of ownership as $3,128 versus $1,420 to rent.

New York/New Jersey, Sacramento, San Diego and San Francisco savings are all over $1,000.

In Detroit, however, the marginal saving is only $89 between owning and renting  home. MSAs including Baltimore, Chicago, Cleveland, Minneapolis, Philadelphia, Phoenix, and Tucson had a difference of less than $500.

“With roughly one-in four mortgages underwater, the loan modification plans put forth so far have done little to help homeowners facing foreclosure,” said Baker.  “Right to Rent, on the other hand, would benefit millions, provide families with real housing security, and could go into effect immediately.”

And it could fill adequate demand. According to a survey done recently by Apartments.com, 60% of respondents said they prefer renting to buying a home. Almost 30% said they had never rented before but are currently looking for an apartment.

The CEPR report includes an appendix with cost analysis for 100 MSAs around the country. Amounts for houses are based on costs for a house that sells at 75% of the median house price. The basis for rental costs is the Department of Housing and Urban Development's Fair Market Rent for a two-bedroom apartment. The calculations used assume the homeowner faces a marginal tax rate of 15%. View the full report here.

Write to Christine Ricciardi.

Wednesday, September 22nd, 2010

Servicers participating in the Home Affordable Modification Program converted 33,342 trial modifications into permanent status in August, down 26.7% from the 45,512 in July.

The Treasury Department launched HAMP in March 2009 to provide incentives to servicers for the modification of loans on the verge of foreclosure. Since then, the participating servicers have provided 468,058 permanent modifications. Borrowers must submit all documents and make three monthly trial payments to receive a permanent modification.

The Obama Administration set an early goal for 3 million to 4 million borrowers to receive aid under HAMP. After 17 months, servicers have reached more than 15% of that mark, up from slightly higher than 14% in July.

If servicers gain an average of 1 basis point every month, they would not reach 3 million permanent modifications for another 85 months, or another seven years. But HAMP is set to expire at the end of 2012.

Servicers have offered more than 1.5 million trials to borrowers who qualify for the program and have started 1.3 million of them, but canceled 46,699 trials in August, 28% more than permanent modifications completed in the same month.

According to the Treasury, the most common causes of canceling a trial modification are: insufficient documentation, another default during the trial stage, or the borrower was deemed ineligible, meaning the loan was already at 31% of the household's monthly income.

Servicers are working through the backlog of borrowers stuck in trial modifications. In August, the amount of borrowers in a trial for more than six months fell to fewer than 95,000 from 118,000 in July.

Richard Simon, a spokesman for Bank of America, which has completed more permanent modifications than any other in the program (see below), said trials are declining as servicers work through that backlog.

"This continues the expected decline in trials across the industry as the servicers reach decisions on eligibility for permanent modifications, particularly on aged trials, and the inflow of new trial modifications has slowed, reflecting the change in government guidance requiring full documentation of trial mods," Simon said.

Borrowers receiving a permanent modification received an average 36% discount on their monthly payments for an average of more than $500 a month. According to the Treasury, borrowers with a permanent modification are guaranteed lower payments for five years and fixed terms at current market rates for the remaining life of the loan.

HomeEq, the former servicing arm of Barclays Capital recently acquired by Ocwen Financial Corp., was the top HAMP servicer for the fifth-consecutive month. It converted 91% of its trial modifications into permanent status, the highest of any servicer. It has converted 4,948 permanent modifications and holds 13,965 HAMP-eligible loans.

Wachovia Mortgage FSB converted 80% of its trials into permanent status in August, which makes it the second highest for two months in a row, but the percentage fell from 81% in July. The company has conducted 7,893 permanent modifications and holds 25,937 HAMP-eligible loans.

Ocwen moved back into third, converting 71% of its 29,871 HAMP-eligible portfolio into permanent status during the month. It has totaled 17,970 so far.

The big-four banks all had slight conversion rate increases in August. CitiMortgage, the servicing arm of Citigroup, led them by converting 33%, totaling 47,236 permanent modifications, up from 44,276 the previous month.

JPMorgan Chase converted 31% for a total of 60,932 permanent modifications through August, up from 58,489 in July. Wells Fargo had a 29% conversion rate, totaling 48,830 permanent modifications, up from 46,732 in July.

Bank of America held the highest amount of permanent modifications of any participating servicer in August, at 79,859, up from 76,330 in the previous month, a 26% conversion rate. BofA holds 383,482 HAMP-eligible loans, down from 416,879.

Write to Jon Prior.

Wednesday, September 22nd, 2010

The Obama Administration's latest scorecard on the housing market touted advances in refinancing and house prices in August.

The Department of Housing and Urban Development and the Treasury Department compiled data for the monthly scorecard. According to the administration, stabilizing housing prices leveled off in the past year after 30 straight months of declines. Homeowners added $95 billion in home equity in the second quarter.

The scorecard did acknowledge "a dip" in home sale figures in July after the expiration of the homebuyer tax credit. But since April 2009, record low mortgage rates have helped more than 7.1 million families refinance, saving more than $12.7 billion.

According to the scorecard, more than twice as many modification agreements have been begun compared to foreclosure completions. Servicers started more than 3.3 million mod agreements between April 2009 and July 2010, including 1.3 million through the Home Affordable Modification Program and more than 1.6 million through proprietary programs.

Through HAMP, servicers have now completed more than 33,000 permanent modifications in August, pushing the total to 468,000 since the program launched in March 2009. But the amount of permanent HAMP mods completed in August was 27% below the amount done in July.

“Over the last 17 months, the Obama Administration has taken comprehensive action to keep interest rates at record lows, provide incentives to responsible homebuyers, and help millions of families stay in their homes,” said HUD Assistant Secretary Raphael Bostic. “But we’re certainly not going to stop fighting to turn things around."

Write to Jon Prior.

Wednesday, September 22nd, 2010

The regulatory framework included in Basel 3 and the Dodd-Frank Act "will significantly lower the probability and severity of future financial crises" while protecting taxpayers by limiting excessive risk-taking by financial institutions, according to Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner.

Testifying before the House Financial Services Committee, Geithner said the new capital requirements for banks included in Basel 3 are meant to curtail the need for taxpayer bailouts of so-called "too-big-to-fail banks."

"The new standards are designed to ensure that major banks hold enough capital to withstand losses as large as what we saw in the depths of this recession and still have the ability to operate without turning to the taxpayer for extraordinary help," he said.

Geithner expects the mandates to result in a "more stable and more resilient" financial system because they constrain risk taking while making banks stronger and more capable of absorbing losses.

"Capital requirements are the financial equivalent of having speed limits on our highways, anti-lock brakes and airbags in our cars, and strong building codes in communities prone to earthquakes," Geithner said.

He said the capital requirements that were in place prior to the crisis were too low and too many banks "in many parts of the world were allowed to operate with low levels of capital relative to the risks they took on."

Some have blasted the time frame in which the Basel 3 requirements will take effect. But Geithner said the timeline for implementation is appropriate because raising capital requirements too fast would hurt the economic recovery.

"To limit that possibility, the agreement gives banks a meaningful transition period to meet the new standards," he said.

The requirements don't start taking effect until the beginning of 2013, and banks don't have to fully comply with the minimum common-equity requirement of 4.5% of assets until the beginning of 2015. The whole process won't be completely in place until 2019.

Geithner said U.S. banks are well positioned to adapt to new global rules because the stress tests performed in early 2009 forced banks to raise more common equity.

Write to Jason Philyaw.

Wednesday, September 22nd, 2010

Yesterday I moderated a panel at the Mortgage Bankers Association mortgage operations conference, in Grapevine, Texas, on both the challenges and necessity of automating mortgage loan quality.

Kelly Kraus, the product development manager at Fannie Mae, made an interesting point in that while most technological products remain optional, some still come as higher recommended. For instance, the Fannie Mae Early Check helps clear up "fatal eligibility checks" for preparing loans for the secondary market.

It's basically an automated check list for use under the Loan Quality Initiative to look for problems, and it will tell you, for example, to be sure that any Social Security number being provided is "not associated with a deceased person," for example, Kraus said. This automatically helps clean up the underwriting and prevent rejection from a GSE.

Ed Gerding, a fraud consultant at CoreLogic, noted also that technological implementation gives the impression of forward thinking, and that "the appearance of innovation drives down buy-back risk."

At a panel such as this, these speakers no doubt see paper as disease in the system: rotted flesh that needs cutting away. And there is logic in that, but the process needs to go ever further. The act of electronically bundling loans for the secondary market is great from a process and compliance standpoint. It's a great way to provide loan level transparency to investors. But it's still a mid-tier data entry process.

Investors want accessible loan level data. Why does all the information sent to investors go via electronic delivery, but the documents provided to borrowers at closing is a 250-page book?

The mortgage process still has too many paper-steps. This slide provided by Abdias Lira, a software architect from Wolters Kluwer, tracks the creation of a mortgage to show just that. (Click to expand.)

At some point, that data will need to be entered into an electronic platform and systems can only be as strong as the personnel entering that information.

Cynthia Wortham, a compliance director at Prime Lending, asked if anyone in the audience still manually populates the date of the good faith estimates and argued for the automation of the process.

The face-to-face appeal of mortgage origination will never be replaced. But any data gathered at the time need only be entered once, and automated for the length of the loan. Investors can then cherry-pick the information in pools in ways that suit their individual needs.

And this would also solve the argument investors had years ago, that when they asked for loan-level data, they become inundated with info … most of it unnecessary to their goals. Today, the situation is different in the era of Dodd-Frank. My point from last week's column and this week remains intertwined, and summed up nicely by Wortham: "We are expected and required to comply," she said. "Missing or inaccurate data is unacceptable in the eyes of many investors and state and federal examiners."

Jacob Gaffney is the editor of HousingWire.

Write to him.

Wednesday, September 22nd, 2010

Fannie Mae, which administers the Home Affordable Modification Program for the Treasury Department, released guidance for servicers participating in the Second Lien Modification Program (2MP).

Fannie requires servicers to implement 2MP by Jan. 1, 2011. Fannie released the guidance Tuesday in a letter to servicers. All Fannie servicers are required to join the program, and the top-four banks have committed, too.

Under 2MP, only second liens originated on or before Jan. 1, 2009 will be eligible for a modification if its corresponding first lien has been modified under the HAMP. Through August, more than 468,000 distressed loans have been given a permanent modification.

The second lien can be either current or delinquent, but it must hold an unpaid principal balance of more than $5,000.

Second liens with no interest charged are not eligible. Servicers cannot extinguish full or partial principal options, and they cannot defer or waive accrued interest. Borrowers must have a fully executed 2MP modification agreement before Dec. 31, 2012.

Lender Processing Services will maintain a database of second liens that could be eligible for 2MP to better inform servicers of the corresponding first-liens moving through HAMP.

The terms of the first-lien HAMP modification will be used for the second-lien mod. Therefore, because a loan is required to be in delinquency before it enters HAMP, servicers will conclude that the second-lien would be delinquent as well.

The servicing waterfall for second liens through the program starts with a capitalization of accrued interest and servicing advances, moves to a reduction of interest rates, term extension, and principal forbearance.

The modification of the second lien will not become effective until the first-lien is modified through HAMP and the borrower has made all required 2MP trial period payments.

Servicers participating in the program must offer a 2MP trial period within 120 calendar days after receiving the first and second-lien matching information from LPS.

Write to Jon Prior.

Wednesday, September 22nd, 2010

Titan Capital Group said Keith Danko has joined the volatility-trading hedge fund firm as partner and will assist the founder, Russell Abrams, in running the company.

Danko will focus primarily on business development and work at the company's headquarters in New York.

Prior to joining Titan, Danko was chief executive of U.S. operation at CQS, a London-based alternative investment firm. Before that, he was chief executive and chief investment officer of ACAM Advisors, a firm that specializes in funds of hedge funds.

Earlier in his career, Danko worked for Goldman Sachs (GS: 111.77 +2.96%) where he structured and managed the first U.K. multi-tranche collateralized mortgage obligation, as well as the first U.K. auto-loan securitization.

"We are extremely pleased to have Keith on board and look forward to benefiting from his experience and long track record of success. We believe he is a great addition to Titan's already strong team," Abrams said.

Titan Capital Group is an alternative-investment manager specializing in volatility trading strategies. The firm was founded in 2000 and operates offices in New York and Hong Kong.

Write to Christine Ricciardi.

Wednesday, September 22nd, 2010

Investor attitudes have reversed abruptly in recent months. As late as last March, most translated the year-long robust rise in stocks, foreign currencies, commodities and the weakness in Treasury bonds that had commenced a year earlier into robust economic growth—the “V” recovery.

As a result, investors early this year believed that rapid job creation and the restoration of consumer confidence would spur retail spending. They also saw the housing sector’s evidence of stabilization giving way to revival, and strong export growth also propelling the economy. Capital spending, led by high tech, was another area of strength, many believed.

Not So Fast
A funny, or not so funny, thing happened on the way to super-charged, capacity-straining growth. In April, investors began to realize that the eurozone financial crisis, which had been heralded at the beginning of the year by the decline in the euro, was a serious threat to global growth. Stocks retreated, commodities fell and Treasury bonds rallied and the dollar rose. It is, after all, just one big trade among these four markets, so their correlated actions on the down as well as the upsides aren’t surprising.

Wednesday, September 22nd, 2010

Lehman Brothers Holdings is considering selling its largest real estate asset, apartment-complex owner Archstone, which it acquired in a $22 billion leveraged buyout.

Bloomberg reports Gerard Uzzi, a lawyer for Lehman creditors, said in a court filing that the sale would be made to two affiliates — Lehman Commercial Paper Inc. and Luxembourg Residential Properties Loan Finance also known as Luxco. The terms of the sale have yet to be defined, according to the filing.

Uzzi said in a footnote that the deal might represent "the most valuable give-up" by Lehman to its affiliates. Archstone has required two bailouts from its bankers in the last two years.

Lehman Brothers won court approval in May for a second attempt at savings the firm's investment in Archstone. The restructuring agreement gave Lehman authority to join Barclays and Bank of America Corp. (BAC: 7.29 -0.14%) in converting $5.2 billion worth of Archstone loans to preferred equity, according to Bloomberg.

In 2009, the three firms committed an additional $484 million in financing to Archstone.

Write to Christine Ricciardi.



Origination/Lending
Kenneth Bacon, executive vice president of the Fannie Mae multifamily mortgage business, is retiring after 18 years at the mortgage...

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Servicing/Default
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