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Archive for August, 2010

Wednesday, August 18th, 2010

Architectural billings increased slightly after two relatively soft months, but the increase represents a decline in demand for design services according to a report released by the American Institute of Architects (AIA) Wednesday. The new projects inquiry index, a measure of people asking for architecture work, dropped substantially from 57.7 to 53.1.

The firm reported that its monthly Architecture Billings Index (ABI) rose almost two full points to 47.9 in July from 46.0 in June. The index was 45.8 in May and 48.5 in April. The AIA sets a benchmark value of 50 for its indexes: anything above that number is considered to be positive and anything below negative.

The ABI’s monthly data is derived from questionnaires distributed to a panel of AIA member-owned firms. Participants are asked whether their billings increased, decreased, or stayed the same in the month that just ended. According to the proportion of respondents choosing each option, a score is generated, which represents an index value for each month.

AIA reported the new project inquiries index declined substantially in July to 53.1 from 57.7.

Kermit Baker, AIA's chief economist, told HousingWire in June that the decrease in demand for design services is counteraction against over improving or over investing in a home. In 2005, credit was cheap and house prices were appreciating rapidly. Over the five years, however, Baker said the houses became smaller.

“There’s a greater concern over affordability,” he said in an interview. “Now, we’re seeing less of [special design floorplans] and more of the general purpose space, more open space in design, more flexible space.”

The regional buildings index was highest in the South at 47.9, followed by the Northeast at 47.2, the Midwest at 46.7, and the West at 45.2.

The index was the highest in the commercial/industrial sector (50.4), followed by the institutional sector (47.9), the multi-family residential secotr (47.5) and the mixed practice sector (42.9).

Write to Christine Ricciardi.

Wednesday, August 18th, 2010

Investors are moving more money than ever before out of stocks and into bonds, widening a valuation gap and convincing JPMorgan Chase & Co. and BlackRock Inc. that now is the time to buy equities.

About $33bn flowed out of funds owning US shares this year even as the economic recovery sent free cash flow for American companies excluding banks to 6.8% of their market value.

Wednesday, August 18th, 2010

Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research announced Wednesday the appointment of Michelle Meyer as senior US economist of the Developed Markets Economics Research team. In this position, Meyer will drive the group’s housing-industry forecasts as well as support the rates and currencies trading desk.

She will report to Ethan Harris, head of Developed Markets and Economics Research.

Meyer's "expertise in researching the housing market, along with her ability to analyze macroeconomic indicators and fiscal policy issues, will be a valuable asset to our clients," according to Harris.

Meyer joins the BofAML global research from Barclays Capital, where she served as senior US economist. Prior to that, she was a US economist at Lehman Brothers for over three years. Meyer earned a B.A. and an M.A. in economics from Boston University.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research tracks more than 3,100 stocks globally and ranks them in numerous external surveys.

Write to Christine Ricciardi.

Wednesday, August 18th, 2010

US bankruptcy filings have reached the highest level since 2005, government data released on Tuesday show, as the economy slows and the unemployment rate hovers just below double digits.

There were 422,061 bankruptcy filings between April and June, according to the Administrative Office of the US Courts, up 9% from 388,148 in the prior three-month period, and up 11% from 381,073 a year earlier.

Wednesday, August 18th, 2010

Mortgage refinancings rose 17.1% last week and now account for 81.4% of total mortgage applications, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

The association said in its weekly survey that the refinance index for the week ended Aug. 13 reached its highest level since May 2009, and the refinancing share of overall mortgage applications last week was at the highest rate since January 2009.

Mortgage rates hit all-time lows earlier this year and are still at levels not seen for decades, with many lenders currently offering 15-year fixed-rate loans lower than 4% and 30-year fixed in the 4.25%-4.5% range.

MBA's seasonally adjusted market composite index, which measures weekly gross mortgage loan applications, rose 13% from the prior week. The seasonally adjusted purchase index declined 3.4% from a week earlier and is 38.6% lower than the same week a year ago, according to MBA.

In a separate survey, Mortgage Maxx said household application activity for the week rose 5.9% from the previous week.

The firm's Mortgage Application Index — or MAX — measures household activity in the application process by adjusting total application volume to count multiple submissions from a single household as one participant.

MAX publisher Paul Descloux said the index "shows strength as the 10-year treasury again reaches crisis mode yields. Not only have long dated mortgages fallen to 4.5%, but some old favorites like 5/1 interest only are down in the low 3’s."

Write to Jason Philyaw.

Wednesday, August 18th, 2010

Bank of America (BAC: 7.29 -0.14%) pushed its total number of permanent mortgage workouts under the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) to 76,300 in July, a 5.9% increase from June.

The Treasury Department launched HAMP in March 2009 to provide incentives to servicers for the modification of loans on the verge of foreclosure. BofA converted 4,300 trial modifications into permanent ones in July, about half of the amount done in June. In order for a borrower to receive a permanent modification, he or she must make three monthly payments in the trial stage of the program and submit all documentation.

But BofA has completed nearly 100,000 permanent modifications through its own programs outside of HAMP this year. Some of these loans were given second looks after falling out or not qualifying for the government's program.

Early problems with collecting necessary documentation for those in the trial stages of HAMP led to thousands of loans spending more than three months there. After the Treasury required a borrower to submit all documentation before entering the trial, servicers began working through this overflow.

BofA has trimmed its active trial modifications from 221,395 loans in January to under 85,000 in July, according to the Treasury.

According to the bank, the slower pace of new trial modifications follows a transition from accepting verbal financial information to requiring full documentation and underwriting before putting a borrower into a trial.

"When a customer is found to be ineligible for HAMP or falls out of a trial modification, we consider an alternative home retention program, and if no viable solution is available, a dignified exit from homeownership," said Rebecca Mairone, default servicing executive for Bank of America Home Loans.

While HAMP guidelines outline specific debt-to-income ratios, owner-occupancy and trial payment performance, Mairone reiterated that BofA continues to find other ways to avoid foreclosure either through other modification programs or the government's Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternatives (HAFA) program, which urges servicers to do short sales and deeds-in-lieu of foreclosure.

Last week, BofA announced it was testing its own co-op short sale program for borrowers who do not qualify for either HAMP or HAFA.

Write to Jon Prior.

Wednesday, August 18th, 2010

The Securities and Exchange Commission's lead regulator of the mutual fund industry is leaving in November, after successfully revamping investment-adviser controls and curtailing adviser pay-to-play abuses.

Andrew "Buddy" Donohue had been director of the division of investment management for four years. A SEC spokesman said there hasn't been any discussion about a successor and Donohue didn't outline his plans after November.

The SEC said Donohue helped implement a new mutual fund summary prospectus and investment-adviser disclosure brochure, and proposed to replace some distribution fees with a reformed regulatory framework. He also recently proposed ways to improve fund advertisements and marketing.

SEC Chairman Mary Schapiro said Donohue's "vast knowledge of mutual funds and the investment advisory landscape has been invaluable in advancing several vital regulatory initiatives."

Write to Jason Philyaw.

Wednesday, August 18th, 2010

HSBC Bank USA is considering the possible sale of its US-based mortgage unit, HSBC Mortgage Corp., and notified employees Monday of the possible options being considered although no firm timetable for a potential decision was provided. The bank, the U.S. subsidiary of London-based HSBC Holdings Plc (HBC: 42.59 +0.97%), bases much of its US operations in New York state.

Options for the mortgage subsidiary include "a sale, merger or other business combination," according to a statement from the bank, which also said the mortgage company may look to sell substantially all of its assets. It's also possible that no changes at all will be made, the bank said.

Bank spokesperson Neil Brazil stressed to the press that HSBC is not looking to exit US mortgage originations, but is instead assessing how it conducts its mortgage business in the United States.

"We are still very much in the mortgage origination business. That's not a part of the business that we're looking to exit at all," Brazil told The Buffalo News, a local news service that originally broke the story. "The bank will still be making mortgage loans to our bank customers. This is a review of the process of how we do that."

HSBC's mortgage operations currently employ roughly 1,500 in the US, according to the company, and the company was the 21st largest mortgage originator in the US during 2009.

But Europe's largest bank has been moving to reduce its exposure to unsecured lending and exiting unprofitable businesses for the past two years, tranferring its North American consumer finance operations into a run-off portfolio following heavy losses from subprime lending.

Beyond considering options for its US-based mortgage business, the bank is in the process of divesting from other assets and recently announced that a deal to sell the remainder of its vehicle finance loan portfolio, which totaled $4.3 billion at the end of June, would close in Q310.

HSBC's North American operations posted a pretax profit of $492 million in the first half of 2010, helping the bank increase profits by more than 100% through June of this year.

Paul Jackson is the publisher of HousingWire.com and HousingWire Magazine. Follow him on Twitter: @pjackson

The author holds no relevant investments.

Wednesday, August 18th, 2010

Narayana Kocherlakota, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, spoke Tuesday on behalf of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), harping on the troubling implications of the job market and saying unemployment isn't something monetary policy can fix.

The unemployment rate, as Kocherlakota explained, has a direct relationship to the job-opening rate which is tracked by the US Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics. When job openings rise, the unemployed can find jobs more readily and thus drive down unemployment.

Kocherlakota said the inverse relationship, a decrease in job openings to an increase in unemployment, was "extremely stable" during the 2000/2001 recession, the subsequent recovery, and throughout the early part of the current recession.

However, he said that stable relationship began to disintegrate in 2008 and over the past year completely shattered. Between July 2009 and June 2010, the job openings rate increased 20%, but the unemployment rate actually increased slightly during this period.

"What does this change in the relationship between job openings and unemployment connote? In a word, mismatch," Kocherlakota said. "Firms have jobs, but can’t find appropriate workers. The workers want to work, but can’t find appropriate jobs."

As of August 11, the current job-opening rate is 2.2%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Kocherlakota said unemployment should be closer to 6.5% at that rate and under a stable relationship relative to job fillings rather than the current 9.5%.

Kocherlakota suggested many things as the cause to a mismatch in the job market — geography, skills, demography — but said the problem is one the Fed can't do anything to fix.

"Monetary stimulus has provided conditions so that manufacturing plants want to hire new workers. But the Fed does not have a means to transform construction workers into manufacturing workers," he said. "Most of the existing unemployment represents mismatch that is not readily amenable to monetary policy"

Once again last week, the FOMC kept the federal funds rate between 0% and 0.25%. This means it is planning to keep short-term interest rates relatively low as an effort to sustain unemployment at the current level.

"The FOMC is saying: We’re keeping interest rates low to keep unemployment from going any higher," explained Kocherlakota. "And we feel safe in doing so because there seems to be little threat of inflation."

Write to Christine Ricciardi.

Tuesday, August 17th, 2010

In a rare move, members at many levels of the US government are meeting with securitization investors and industry trade groups to hammer out a strategy going forward to reactivate the private investor base of the securitization market.

Early on in a Tuesday meeting, called Funding Mortgages and the Role of Securitization at President Obama's housing finance summit, it became apparent that the hammer will need to strike from many angles.

Call it a working lunch: representatives from the NY Federal Reserve, FDIC, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the Committee on Financial Services gathered around a table in a tiny conference room on the fifth floor of the Treasury. Sitting next to them were representatives from investments banks and other private investor bases.

Munching on the box lunches that are now considered a hallmark of the Obama administration, the government made it clear that reducing its exposure to the American housing markets is of tantamount importance.

In order to do this, a much larger return of third-party investor money will be necessary. One panelist estimated that FHA represents 80% of the housing origination market and that a lot more competition would be welcome.

The investors will need some more convincing.

Lewis Ranieri of Ranieri & Co. was particularly outspoken on this point. For him, the enforceability of regulations will be key. He said that fraud remains rampant through the collateral. FICO scores drift negatively sometimes months after a mortgage is written, which could "only be true if there is a tremendous amount of leveraging up that is not natural," for the borrower.

Of course, newly passed financial reform should address some of these concerns going forward. But, Ranieri said the final draft of the law seems watered-down.

"Dodd-Frank is better than nothing, but it should be much better than nothing," he said.

One overriding issue is where the borrower holds a second lien. Ranieri suggested making the restructuring easier in this regard, as even with short sales the second lien holder often blocks the sale. Tom Deutsch, the head of the American Securitization Forum, adds that Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) is also of little help in these instances.

Going forward the private market seems satisfied that seconds will not be allowable without the consent of the lender of the first.

Deutsch suggested that as private investor money starts to trickle back into the market, government-led competitors in the bond market, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, should "allow themselves to be crowded out," as Ted Tozer, the president of Ginnie Mae looked on from audience seating.

Other balls were juggling in the air: should RMBS have b-piece (first-loss owners) investors as with CMBS, who can control the servicing of the assets to a larger degree and thereby removing the taxpayer as a potential loss holder?

Is there confidence in risk retention, some form of comfort? Panelists agreed that it is not a panacea, and didn't see the logic in a 5% standard.

Toward the end, the conversation once again return to regulation, marking the only long silence from the panelists. "With RMBS you need the SEC to be in charge," said Ranieri. The investors and the trade groups agreed that loan-loss provisions need to be reserved during the windup now, in order to cover for the bad times, Deutsch said.

Alan Boyce of Absalon, a big promoter of the Danish RMBS model, said that the US will need to switch from FASB accounting to the Europe-wide IASB in order to meet this type of demand easier. With Basel 3 reform in the pipeline, not doing so will make it extremely difficult to be a mortgage originator in the United States, he said.

Write to Jacob Gaffney.



Origination/Lending
Kenneth Bacon, executive vice president of the Fannie Mae multifamily mortgage business, is retiring after 18 years at the mortgage...

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Servicing/Default
The serious delinquency rate for Federal Housing Administration mortgages reached 9.6% in December, the highest level in more than two...

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