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Archive for August, 2010

Friday, August 20th, 2010

The nation's homeowners paid a median of $1,000 in monthly housing costs in 2009, while renters paid a median of $808 per month, according to the 2009 American Housing Survey released Thursday by the US Census Bureau and the US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). And while the number of Americans who own homes are falling, the number getting into reverse mortgages is gaining considerably.

Compared to 2007, the number of homeowners that owned their home free and clear decreased 1.3% to 24.2m in 2009 from 24.9m. The amount of regular and home-equity mortgages increased 1.4% to 50.3m from 48.7 in 2007. Reverse mortgages increased 59% to 252,000 from 159,000 while line of credit options decreased to 1.7m from 1.8m.

Federal Housing Administration (FHA) mortgages propelled 2.2% to 6.3m. Veteran Affairs (VA) mortgages decreased 0.3% to 3.7m in 2009. Rural Housing Service/Rural Development (RHS/RD) mortgages held steady only increasing to 435,000 in 2009 from 426,000 in 2007.

The majority of homeowners in 2009, 35.8m or 46.9%, had a primary mortgage term between 28 and 32 years.

The survey also measures homeowner/renter satisfaction with neighborhood and satisfaction with the home. The 2009 survey indicates that respondents were generally content with where and how they were living:

  • 70% rated their homes an 8, 9, or 10 out of 10, with 28% giving their home a 10
  • 84% of residents in newly constructed homes rated their homes between an 8 and 10, with 45% giving their home a perfect score
  • 68% rated their neighborhood highly, with 25% giving it the "best" rating

And in a further drilling down of household expenditures as it relates to purchases, in terms of renters versus owners, it turns out that having a mortgage represents a larger ability to feed oneself. The report said 9.3m renters, or 26.4%, in 2009 lived below the poverty level compared with only 6.4m homeowners, or 8.4%, that lived below the poverty level.

Three years ago, homeowners paid a median of $927 in monthly housing costs, an average of 20% of their household income. The median household income for homeowners was $59,886 and 8.8% were living below the poverty line. Renters in 2007 spent a median of $755 in monthly housing costs, an average of 30% of their household income. The median household income was $28,921 and 20.2% were living below the poverty level.

The American Housing Survey is released every two years and covers a wide range of topics with regard to housing conditions, including presence of air conditioning, safety equipment provided, type of heating used, presence of air conditioning and homeowner mortgage characteristics.

Write to Christine Ricciardi.

Friday, August 20th, 2010

Servicers participating in the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) pushed the total number of permanent modifications to 434,716 through July, an 11% increase from the more than 389,198 the previous month, according to the Treasury Department.

The Treasury launched HAMP in March 2009 to provide incentives to servicers for the modification of loans on the verge of foreclosure. In order to receive a permanent modification through the program, borrowers must make three monthly payments during the trial period and submit all documentation.

The increasing number of permanent modifications means servicers are starting to work through the amount of aged loans still in the trial stage. Over the last six months, the amount of these loans has dropped from 166,00 to 118,000.

In July, servicers converted 45,518 trial modifications into permanent status with 4,089 permanent modifications canceled for a total 12,912 since the program launched. This includes 272 mortgages that borrowers paid off.

The Treasury this month also released the amount of trial modifications that have been canceled by eight particular servicers: Bank of America, CitiMortgage, GMAC, JPMorgan Chase, Litton Loan Servicing, OneWest Bank, Wells Fargo, and American Home Mortgage Servicing. Through June, these servicers have canceled 409,981 trial modifications. More than 45% of these loans were put into an alternative modification, but more than 30% have yet to placed through any other process including short sale or foreclosure.

More than 11% of the canceled trial modifications, or 47,000 mortgages, have either been foreclosed on or have entered the process. Just over 2% have gone through a short sale or deed-in-lieu, and on almost 6% of them, the borrower has become current.

According to the Treasury, the most common causes of canceling a trial modification are: insufficient documentation, another default during the trial stage, or the borrower was deemed ineligible, meaning the loan was already at 31% of the household's monthly income.

Overall, servicers have canceled 616,839 trials since the program launched last year, up 18% from the previous month.

The Obama Administration set an early goal for 3m to 4m borrowers to receive aid under HAMP before the program expires at the end of 2012. After 16 months, servicers have reached over 14% of that mark, up from just over 13% in June.

Servicers have offered 1.5m three-month trial modifications through July and have started 1.3m of them.  There are currently 255,934 active trial modifications. Servicers reported 25,362 new trials in July, an increase from 38,728 new trials in June.

Borrowers receiving a permanent modification received an average 36% discount on their monthly payments for an average of more than $500 a month. According to the Treasury, borrowers with a permanent modification are guaranteed lower payments for five years and fixed terms at current market rates for the remaining life of the loan.

HomeEq, the former servicing arm of Barclays Capital and recently bought by Ocwen Financial Corp. was the top HAMP servicer for the fourth consecutive month. It converted 90% of its trial modifications into permanent status, the highest of any servicer. It has converted 4,403 permanent modifications and holds 14,564 HAMP-eligible loans.

Wachovia Mortgage FSB, which converted 81% of its trials into permanent status, made it back to second. It has conducted 5,539 permanent modifications and holds 27,571 HAMP-eligible loans.

Carrington Mortgage Services dropped back into third. It had a conversion rate at 80% in June, totaling 2,109 permanent modifications.

The big-four banks all had slight conversion rate increases in July. CitiMortgage, the servicing arm of Citigroup, led them by converting 31%, totaling 44,276 permanent modifications, up from 40,813 the previous month.

JPMorgan Chase converted 30% for a total of 58,489 permanent modifications through July, up from 54,722 in May.

Wells Fargo had a 28% conversion rate, totaling 46,732 permanent modifications, up from 44,628 in May.

Bank of America holds the highest amount of permanent modifications of any participating servicer in July, at, up 76,330 from 72,232 in the previous month, a 25% conversion rate. BofA holds 416,879 HAMP-eligible loans.

Write to Jon Prior.

The author holds no relevant investments.

Friday, August 20th, 2010

In one year, commercial real estate has seen both a drop in prices and a doubling up in delinquency rates, research analytics firms tracking the market find. Price values are down to nearly half the levels seen at the peak of the market, while the risk of default is rising and the commercial real estate foreclosure book continues to add pages.

National property prices on commercial real estate dropped 9.1% in June from last year, according to Moody's commercial property price index. The rate declined 0.9% over the first half of 2010, and while prices remain 4.2% above the current recession low of October, they are down 41.4% from the peak in October 2007.

Moody's bases the index on the dollar volume of repeat sales transactions in commercial real estate. Analysts reported $2.1bn of these transactions in June, up from $1.5bn in May and $800m in April. Moody's managing director Nick Levidy said the increase in sales could mean prices have fallen far enough to meet new demand.

"The increase in dollar volume in each of the past two months, taken together with this month's 43% increase in the number of repeat sale transactions, may be an early indication that buyers and sellers are starting to agree on market-clearing prices," Levidy said. "If this is in fact occurring, we would expect transaction volumes to rise steadily and price volatility to ebb in the months to come."

Analytics firm Realpoint found delinquency rates on these loans that have been securitized, CMBS, reached 7.79% in July, more than two times the 3.15% reported a year ago. It's also more than 27 times the recorded low point, a 0.28% delinquency rate in June 2007.

The delinquent unpaid balance for CMBS loans reached $60.8bn in July. While it did increase $387.9m from the previous month, it's nearly 90% below the previous six-monthly average of $3.14bn in increases.

Commercial loans that were either 90-plus days delinquent, in foreclosure, or REO grew in the  aggregate for the 31st consecutive month, reaching $49bn in July. That figure is nearly triple the year ago and up 9% from the previous month.

Realpoint said the delinquency rate could reach between 9% and 10% by the end of the year with the potential to reach 11% under more heavily stressed scenarios.

With the drop in prices and the continued increase in delinquencies on existing loans, those on the servicing side are seeing places to stretch their business. Clayton Holdings, which provides risk analysis and loss mitigation services, made a recent hire for its commercial servicing division, a move that underscores the company's expansion into commercial real estate.

Cathy Marquardt, the new associate vice president of commercial servicing at the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), said while existing commercial loan servicers are seeing increased levels of default, the future remains uncertain.

"On a more macro level, the key challenge is managing P&L (profits and losses) and resources in light of the uncertainty in the market and the lack of clarity about what the industry will look like in the future," Marquardt said.

Write to Jon Prior.

Friday, August 20th, 2010

Credit Suisse is going long on two mortgage insurance stocks citing declining default rates and book value stabilization as positive indicators.

Research analyst Douglas Harter wrote that he expects private mortgage insurers to regain market share next year and in 2012 because improving default rates give insurers increased ability to profit from new business.

These factors led the company to place outperform ratings on The PMI Group (PMI: 0.00 N/A) and Radian Group (RDN: 2.66 +2.70%), setting target prices of $5.50 for PMI and $12 for Radian.

The firm maintains a neutral rating on MGIC Investment Corp. (MTG: 4.14 +6.98%) with a $9 a share target.

Credit Suisse said defaults of mortgages from the problematic vintages of 2005 to 2007 will peak in the second half and start declining thereafter. Analysts also expect the insurers to regain market share after recapitalizing and benefiting from price increases by the Federal Housing Administration (FHA).

Still, overall economic weakness impacts the insurers' portfolio and hinders new insurance origination, and further regulatory reform could also hurt the industry, analysts said.

Write to Jason Philyaw.

Friday, August 20th, 2010

Moody’s Investors Service foresees more downgrades than upgrades during the the second half of the year for collateralized debt obligations in commercial real estate, as the increase in defeasance rates is greatly accelerating.

Analysts said cash flows from CRE continue to remain stressed and ratings actions reflect higher risk associated with declining debt-service coverage ratios. During the second quarter, Moody’s downgraded 753 CMBS transactions while a mere 35 transaction were upgraded. Defeasance activity — that is when a borrower in a commercial real estate securitization substitutes some type of capital-generating collateral in lieu of a hard payment — for the first half of 2010 was almost 300% higher than during the same period in 2009 and is equal to almost 80% of the level achieved for full-year 2009. The largest shares of defeasance in order by vintage are 2005, 2002 and 2004, at 16%, 15% and 14%, respectively, according to the Moody's report. Additionally, the mulitfamily sector made up the largest share of collateral in defeasance.

Moody’s also unveiled new metrics to measure base expected loss and stress scenario loss that represent a "potential performance path under defined uniform conditions" to "shed additional light" on refinance risk.

While 62.4% of five-year loans that matured during the first half were paid in full, 6.2% paid off with losses and Moody’s expects short-term mortgages maturing this year face significant refinancing challenges due to little or no amortization in many of the loans.

Meanwhile, Fitch Ratings said almost half of an expected 126 CMBS loans set to mature in September are already in special servicing and analysts expect the trend to continue into next year. Fitch said 17% of the 2,198 CMBS loans maturing in 2011, or $26.5bn, are already in special servicing.

"Most maturing loans already in special servicing are either delinquent or in foreclosure," said Fitch senior director Adam Fox. "Recent vintage loans have little or no amortization and are maturing in a higher mortgage rate environment with stricter underwriting standards" making it difficult to refinance the loans.

Write to Jason Philyaw.

Friday, August 20th, 2010

One in four real estate professionals surveyed by the analytics firm Clear Capital said the BP oil spill has caused home sales along the Gulf Coast to come to a "halt."

More than half of the respondents who said the oil spill was having a negative impact also reported the incident had pushed home values down 5% to 15%. But the impact isn't just on values. More than 3% of respondents reported actual property damage from the spill. Many said sales have come to a stand still.

In Mobile, Ala., home sales dropped 25% in June from last year, and other areas in southeastern Alabama and Florida reported decreased sales and property values because of the spill. In Panama City, Fla., professionals reported a 32.5% drop in sales volume from a year ago.

"The results of our survey reflect the overall uncertainty of where and by how much the oil spill is affecting individual local markets," said Alex Villacorta, senior statistician at Clear Capital. "While social stigma appears to be the largest factor influencing the slowdown in home buying activity, it is clear the effects of the spill are being felt well inland from the coast."

But the expiration of the homebuyer tax credit can't be spared blame, either. Pending home sales nationwide plummeted 30% in May after the expiration, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), and July home sales have dropped another 27% from last year, according to the real estate brokerage chain RE/MAX.

"Many of these local markets in the Gulf have already experienced significant price declines over the last few years as well as a recent drop off in sales volume after the tax credit expiration," Villacorta said. "Additional downward pressure in the form of stigma and loss of employment will only serve to further dampen home price recovery."

Other firms are trying to determine the effect the spill is having on real estate values. This week, Greenfield Advisors, which specializes in complex real estate valuation and advisory services, launched a new website to determine that impact.

"Given that the data reveals a huge impact in housing markets due to real or perceived influences, the changing nature of public sentiment regarding the spill will undoubtedly drive market changes," according to the Clear Capital report.

Write to Jon Prior.

Thursday, August 19th, 2010

Several loss mitigation servicers are evolving their strategies in order to stay competitive in high-touch servicing as more and more firms continue to enter the door knocking industry.

Last year, Freddie Mac enlisted Titanium Solutions, a loss mitigation provider, to go to homes with delinquent Freddie Mac mortgages that weren't returning  servicer letters or phone calls. Freddie Mac said sending someone in person would help borrowers overcome roadblocks preventing them from starting the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) trail period.

Now many companies are following suit to provide high-touch loss mitigation services to other investors who hold delinquent mortgages.

Financial Asset Services, Inc. (FAS), a firm that traditionally offered online loss mitigation services such as short sale processes and REO dispositions, is launching its own high-touch servicing platform. FAS agents will now go door-to-door to get hold of delinquent borrowers, in an effort to get people current again on their mortgages — a move they say is due to strong client demand.

FAS boasts that servicers can potentially lower their loss severity on a delinquent mortgage with this face-to-face strategy because it motivates the borrower to consider options such as a short sale or deed-in-lieu instead of foreclosure.

"Utilizing door knocks is a cost effective way for mortgage servicers to reach out to homeowners that may have 'gone dark' in the default process," said Jeffrey Flory, director of Sales and Marketing at FAS. "If [agents] are fortunate enough to make contact and the homeowners is willing to talk, they can have a constructive discussion of some of the options that may be available to them."

And FAS isn't the only firm seeing the benefits in this platform. Field Choice, a field service firm established in 2009, jump-started a high-touch servicing division two months ago. Ted Trapp, director of operations at Field Choice, said his company first sends a letter to notify the borrower that someone is going to come to their house.

"Door knocks in general raise the awareness of the delinquency to the borrower significantly," Trapp told HousingWire. "The interesting part is that they recognize that they got our letter, so it does seem to give our agents a little more authority when they're talking to the person."

Field Choice offers lenders to send its agents a "trial batch" of 20 orders at a discounted rate, usually 50% according Trapp, to get clients in the door. From there on out, said Trapp, the service speaks for itself.

Success rates for high-touch servicing are varying. Trapp said Field Choice's client count has been limited to one in the past two start up months, but with that client the firm has an almost 100% success rate. Flory told HousingWire that, even though FAS's first batch was around 400 orders, no statistical success rate will be available for four to five months.

High-touch servicing is different from agency debt collection in the fact that the servicers never take possession of the delinquent payments. Agents have to be compliant with the Fair Debt Collection Practices Act (FDCPA), but they are not licensed to handle delinquent funds.

Write to Christine Ricciardi.

Additional reporting by Jacob Gaffney.

Thursday, August 19th, 2010

In the first part of 2010, the Florida Office of Financial Regulation (OFR) passed a mandate that mortgage processors and underwriters must become licensed as loan originators. According to an email sent today from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), the trade group successfully convinced the OFR to reverse this requirement.

"[Mortgage] processors and underwriters support the origination function and have limited contact with borrowers, and, moreover, many companies have erected firewalls between the origination and underwriting functions to preserve the integrity of the loan process and in response to the Home Valuation Code of Conduct," said the email from the MBA, explaining its argument to the state of Florida for rule reversal.

Additionally, underwriters who work for one employer also will not be subject to the existing requirements that loan processors file certain mortgage brokers or mortgage lenders declarations with the state of Florida.

In issuing its opinion, the assistant general counsel for the OFR, Jenny Kim, said that the state of Florida considers a "loan originator" as anyone who "processes a mortgage loan application." Underwriters did not clearly fit this description, Kim writes, as they instead provide support work under the supervision of an originator, according to Section 1503(4) of the S.A.F.E. Act.

"Please keep in mind that in-house underwriters that work for a licensed lender must be supervised by a licensed loan originator in order to comply with the S.A.F.E. Act and Florida statutes," Kim concludes.

Write to Jacob Gaffney.

Thursday, August 19th, 2010

Bay Area home sales for July fell to the lowest level in 15 years and the year-over-year decline is the largest for any month since May 2008.

MDA DataQuick said 6,773 homes were sold during the month across the nine-county area of central California, which is down 22.8% from a year ago and 19.1% lower than June.

The San Diego real estate research firm said the expiration of the federal homebuyer tax credit hampered sales for the month. But the July numbers haven’t been this weak since 6,666 homes sold in 1995 and are off 28.8% from 1988, when DataQuick began collecting the data.

“There’s been a pause in the market,” MDA DataQuick president John Walsh said. “Some potential buyers – including those who held off until the tax credits expired – will take their time to assess market conditions, searching for signs of renewed price cuts. Depending on the economy and other factors, that might be what some of them find, especially in areas with a growing number of homes for sale – particularly distressed properties.”

Sales of foreclosed properties accounted for 26.1% of July’s total. That number is up slightly from 25.6% in June yet down from 33.6% a year ago. DataQuick said foreclosure sales peaked in February at 52% of all sales that month.

Some 10.3% of all new loans in July were adjustable-rate mortgages, down from 12.2% last month but up from 6.6% a year ago. The average monthly ARM rate over the last decade is nearly 50% and ARMs hit a low of 3% in January 2009, according to DataQuick.

FHA loans accounted for 23.3% of Bay Area purchase lending last month, down from 25% percent in June and from 24.1% a year ago. Two years ago FHA loans were just 12.7% of purchase mortgages.

Write to Jason Philyaw.

Thursday, August 19th, 2010

The GSEs were the talk of the finance world the world over this week, thanks to a widely anticipated gathering at the US Treasury earlier this week to discuss the future of mortgage finance in the United States.

While HousingWire editor Jacob Gaffney was in DC covering the news on the ground here in the US, publisher Paul Jackson was staying up late to make an appearance on BBC Radio 5's award-winning "Wake Up to Money" show. Because even across the pond, what happens with the GSEs is news.

Click below to listen to the interview. We tend to think HW's publisher acquitted himself quite well, thank you.

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