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Archive for July, 2010

Wednesday, July 28th, 2010

The housing market continues to be sluggish and recent regional upticks in sales spurred by the homebuyer tax credit will decline across the country going forward, according to the latest edition of the Federal Reserve's Beige Book.

In addition, reports on employment conditions — arguably the sector to have the most impact on future growth in the housing market — reported mixed, but moderate improvement.

The Beige Book — formally called the "Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions" — is a report on overall economic conditions, according to comments received from business and other contacts by the 12 Federal Reserve district banks.

While the Boston and St. Louis districts reported increased home sales year-over-year in May and June, the Boston, Philadelphia, Atlanta, and Kansas City districts said future sales will be weak. New construction continues to struggle, particularly in the Atlanta district, where weakened construction dropped even further since the last Beige Book, published in early June.

"Homebuilders in the Cleveland District do not expect a turnaround in new home construction any time this year. Builders in the Chicago District are not introducing new inventory without a signed contract on a home," the report said. "Housing starts were expected to decline for the second half of the year in the Dallas District and to increase slightly over the next three months in the Kansas City District."

Employment reports were mixed, with gradual improvements in most districts. New York, Chicago, Minneapolis, Richmond, and Atlanta all reported improvements, while Boston and Dallas reported steady conditions.

Temporary employment is on the rise in the Philadelphia, Atlanta, Richmond, Chicago, and Minneapolis districts, as employers continue to to rely on temporary staff over permanent hires.

In the commercial real estate sector, contacts reported flat or slightly increased vacancy rates, putting downward pressure on rents. In addition, construction remains weak system-wide. The Philadelphia District reported projects funded with federal stimulus money were near completion, and there are no prospects for additional major construction. The Chicago District reported public infrastructure construction picked up.

Outlook for commercial construction ranged from further declines in activity to slow growth across the districts. Developers reported difficult credit conditions in the Cleveland, Richmond, St. Louis, and Kansas City Districts, the report said, adding that in the Dallas District, a few developers are going out of business.

The banking outlook was mixed, with noticeable but modest increases in activity and demand by the Richmond and Kansas City districts.

"Demand for commercial loans was flat to increasing in the Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Chicago, and Kansas City Districts," the report said. "In contrast, St. Louis reported a decrease in commercial loans outstanding, while New York, Atlanta, and San Francisco reported restrained or decreasing demand in this lending category."

Credit standards remain tight, but credit quality improvement was observed in the Philadelphia, Richmond and Chicago districts. In the Dallas District, nonperforming loans have stabilized and are not expected to worsen, the report added.

Write to Austin Kilgore.

Wednesday, July 28th, 2010

It's never been cheaper to borrow money to buy a house, but when it comes to refinancing more borrowers are choosing to pay down their mortgage principal rather than increase it by borrowing against their home's equity.

Borrowers that contributed additional cash to pay down their mortgage principal when refinancing tied for the second-highest rate in 25 years, according to the latest Freddie Mac quarterly report.

During Q210, 22% of homeowners that refinanced their first-lien mortgage paid down part of their principal balance during the process. The cash-in rate peaked at 36% in Q409, and the Q210 rate ties Q204 for the second highest since Freddie Mac began tracking the data in 1985. The rate was 19% in Q110 and 16% in Q209.

According to separate monthly volume reports from April to June, Freddie Mac's total refinance volume was $54.6bn during Q210, down nearly 60% from $134.5bn during Q209.

Freddie Mac generates the refinance data by taking a sampling of properties where it has funded two successive loans and the second loan is for refinancing rather than purchase.

The Freddie Mac weekly survey of mortgage rates put the average interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) at 5.08% at the beginning of Q210. Rates peaked at 5.21% during the second week in April and hit the 5% threshold during the first week of May. Since then, weekly rates have fluctuated, sometimes setting new records, and never topping 5%.

The greatest percentage of borrowers are opting to borrow less by cashing in during their refinance. Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist said there is a logical explanation for the trend.

“Interest rates on fixed-rate mortgages are at 50-year lows, making refinancing attractive if borrowers qualify," Nothaft said. "Similar rates on savings instruments like CDs are also very low, which makes the choice of paying down mortgage principal very attractive to borrowers with extra cash reserves."

“If you pay down your mortgage balance you save the interest you would pay on the loan — about 4.6% at today’s rates," Nothaft said, adding that it's a better option for borrowers compared to earning a percentage point or less in certificates of deposit (CDs) and money markets and lacks the riskiness of stock market investments, which have not performed well in the past couple of years.

Declining property values may be another factor that has more borrowers paying down mortgage principal. A borrower may want to refinance to take advantage of low rates, but need a lower loan-to-value (LTV) ratio or meet other underwriting standards to complete the deal.

In Freddie's sample pool of mortgages, the median change in value of the refinanced properties was a depreciation of 5% in Q210, up from a depreciation of 4% in Q110 and appreciation of 1% in Q209.

Since 2002, the median change has always been appreciation in value, peaking at 34% in Q206. But since the median change was flat in Q309, the rate of depreciation increased every quarter. That decrease in value is decreasing the refinance borrowers on the other end of the market — "cash out" borrowers that increase their loan balance by at least 5%.

The rate of cash-out refinancers reached a record low of 24% in Q409, increased to 28% in Q110 and declined slightly to 27% in Q210. Since 2002, the cash-out rate peaked at 88% in Q206 and Q306, and was 37% in Q209.

With more borrowers paying down their principal during a refinance and fewer borrowing additional funds, the net home equity converted to cash was at its lowest level in 10 years, Freddie Mac said — $8.3bn in Q210, compared to $8.4bn in Q110 and $21.9bn in Q209.

When borrowers refinanced in Q210, they got a median interest rate reduction of 90 basis points (bps), a 16% discount that will save borrowers more than $1,300 over the life of a $200,000 loan, Freddie said. That's unchanged from Q110, but less than the median discount of 125 bps in Q209.

Write to Austin Kilgore.

Wednesday, July 28th, 2010

Flagstar Bancorp, Inc. (FBC: 0.68 +3.03%), the holding company for Flagstar Bank, reported Wednesday a net loss of $97m, or $0.63 per diluted share, for Q210.  This follows a Q110 net loss of $81.9m or $1.05 per diluted share.

The company reported a decrease in non-performing assets to $1.2bn, down from $1.3bn in last quarter.  According to the earnings statement, the reduction in non-performing loans was offset by an increase in real estate owned properties (REOs). The allowance for loan losses equaled 7.2% of loans held for investment and 52.3% of non-performing loans, up from 7.1% of loans healed for investment and 47.4% of non-performing loans.

REO assets increased to $198.2m in Q210 from $167.3m in Q110.  Flagstar attributed this rise to increases in commercial REO as "legacy loans cycle through the loss mitigation process."

Flagstar reported a gain on loan sales to $64.3m or 1.53%, up from $52.6m or 1.05% in Q110. Loan production, comprise mostly of residential first mortgage loans, increased to $5.5bn from $4.3bn while loans serviced increased to $50.2bn (average servicing fee of 32.4 basis points) from $48.3bn (average servicing fee of 33 basis points.).

Despite quarterly losses, chairman and CEO of Flagstar Joseph Campanelli said the company is "encouraged by a number of positive results in our core business."

He said Flagstar experienced a 26% increase in mortgage originations, a 16% increase in gain on sale margin, a 2% increase in core deposits, an 8% increase in Bank net interest margin, and a 14% reduction in total delinquent loans from the prior quarter.

Write to Christine Ricciardi.

Wednesday, July 28th, 2010

Fannie Mae and a third-party consultant are revising redefault rates for mortgages modified under the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) released by the Treasury Department earlier in the month.

The Huffington Post broke the story this week. The Treasury reported in July that those 3,643 mortgages permanently modified in Q309, 7.8% had fallen into 60-plus day delinquency six months after the conversion from a trial period. Of the 126,527 mortgages that received permanent modifications in Q110, 4.1% have fallen behind by 60 days or more. Those initial results drew extensive criticism.

But Barclays Capital released a report soon after charging the Treasury of misleading the public by ignoring HAMP-modified loans 90 or more days delinquent in the report. A footnote the table provided by the Treasury read, “a HAMP permanent modification is canceled for non payment if it is more than 90 days delinquent.” Barclays analysts interpreted this to mean that the Treasury removed these loans from the delinquent numbers.

In place of that table the Treasury responded in a revised June report:

“Since the Making Home Affordable report was posted on July 20th, Fannie Mae, which administers the program, has reported to Treasury an issue in its implementation of the delinquency statistic methodology used to report performance of permanent modifications. Fannie Mae is now revising the data, and Treasury has retained a third‐party consultant to provide additional review and validation. Upon completion of that independent review, a revised table will be provided.”

A report released in June by the Office of Thrift Supervision (OTC) and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) reported a different view of the HAMP redefaults.

At three months after a HAMP modification, 7.7% of were 60 or more days delinquent, compared to 11.3% overall. At three months, 16.7% of HAMP modifications were 30 or more days delinquent, compared to 24.6% of all modifications, according to the report.

Write to Jon Prior.

Wednesday, July 28th, 2010

In his opening statement to the HM Treasury this morning in the UK, the governor of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, warned that the gradual improvement in credit availability is now largely halted, and that markets are growing more volatile.

King said this development is proof the same problems that caused the credit crisis in the first place have yet to be adequately tackled. King provided the opening remarks to the Bank's quarterly presentation to the Treasury.

"The ability of some countries to achieve necessary fiscal consolidation are affecting confidence in the ability of banks to repair their balance sheets," King said.

"Imbalances are likely to be larger this year than last, and will probably still be around three-quarters of their level at the peak immediately prior to the crisis. Until these underlying problems are resolved, uncertainty about the outlook for the world economy will remain."

King said that the UK economy struggles to move away from consumption towards net exports, and to raise the national savings rate. Without doing this, inflation can't be capped, employment won't improve and the economy will not rebalance. He added that bank rates, currently 0.5%, at some point will need to return "to more normal levels."

In the actual presentation, Paul Fisher, executive director of Markets and a member of the Monetary Policy Committee, said that despite bank-led stimulus packages like the £200bn ($312bn) Asset Purchase Program, there are few signs of a durable recovery.

Like King, Fisher argued that drags on banks, such as sovereign debt woes and changes to capital buffer programs like Basel, must be implemented slowly in the future, as "an insufficient supply of credit – especially to support investment by businesses – would be a major drag on the recovery going forward."

Write to Jacob Gaffney.

Wednesday, July 28th, 2010

[Update 1: Adds lending volume increases at Chase and Citi]

The big four banks are increasing lending to small- and medium-sized businesses in an effort that could support growth and job creation in the sector.

Wells Fargo (WFC: 29.60 +1.89%) and Bank of America (BAC: 7.29 -0.14%) increased small business lending 30% and 25% over 2009, respectively. A spokesperson for JP Morgan Chase (JPM: 37.21 -0.75%) told HousingWire that small business originations, including credit cards, are up 37% in the first half of 2010. A spokesperson for Citigroup (C: 30.87 +1.61%) said small business lending doubled at the bank over the last six months.

The rise in lending comes as small business owners are preparing for an expected tight credit environment, cutting back on spending and hiring, according to a third-quarter 2010 (Q310) survey conducted jointly by Wells Fargo and Gallup.

Wells found that, as of Q310, fewer small business owners expected revenue, cash flow, capital spending and hiring to increase at their companies over the next 12 months than the previous quarter.

"Slower consumer spending growth appears to be weighing on small business confidence," said Wells senior economist Scott Anderson. "Small businesses are scaling back on hiring and capital spending plans in the third quarter and remain concerned about the overall financial health of their companies."

Lower expectations for business prospects contributed to a 17-point decline in the quarterly Wells/Gallup survey to -28 — the lowest score in the history of the survey. An index score of zero indicates small business owners overall are neutral about market business prospects.

The survey found that 38% of respondents expect their companies' revenues to increase "a lot or a little" over the next 12 months, down from 48% in Q210. Additionally, 37% expect capital spending to fall "a lot or a little" over the next 12 months, up from 29% in the previous quarter.

Two measures of future expectations reached their lowest points in the 29-quarter history of the survey. Of all respondents, 43% expect their companies' cash flow to increase, down from 53% in the previous quarter. Additionally, 13% expect their companies to add jobs, down from 18% in the previous quarter.

Availability of credit seems to have improved modestly over last quarter, with 32% of respondents indicating credit was "somewhat" or "very" difficult to obtain over the past 12 months, down from 36% in April. Business owners expect credit to remain tight over the next year, with 42% anticipating credit to remain "somewhat" or "very" difficult to obtain.

Wells and other top banks are boosting lending to small businesses in an effort to support the sector. Small business lending at Wells Fargo grew by nearly one-third in Q310 over the previous quarter, according to Marc Bernstein, executive vice president and head of the Small Business division.

"The weakened economy has been particularly hard on small businesses and our bankers are making every effort to help them through this period with financial solutions and guidance," Bernstein said. "We grew small business lending by 30% over the previous quarter and — in an effort to increase approvals — took a 'second look' at declined applications, while continuing to apply our disciplined credit and underwriting principles."

BofA is also lending more to small- and medium-sized businesses in an ongoing effort to support job creation. The bank loaned $45.4bn to small and medium businesses through the first half of 2010 — $19.4bn in Q110 and $26bn in Q210. The first-half total is up $9bn or nearly 25%, from the same period in 2009.

The company in December 2009 pledged to increase lending to small and medium businesses by $5bn in 2010, from $84.1bn in 2009.

"Small and medium-sized businesses are central to the nation's economy and will be a critical part of the recovery — both as an economic engine for production and growth and as a source of good jobs," said David Darnell, president of Global Commercial Banking at BofA.

"In large measure, these businesses have weathered enormously difficult conditions," Darnell added. "During that time, they have very clearly told us that while getting loans is important, what they continue to need most is more demand for their goods and services."

Write to Diana Golobay.

Disclosure: the author holds no relevant investments.

Wednesday, July 28th, 2010

Texas joined the West Coast in the complete conversion of Wachovia bank branches to Wells Fargo (WFC: 29.60 +1.89%) this month. The bank now has over 700 banking locations and 1,000 ATMs across the state making the brand the largest network of retail banks in Texas supporting an estimated 1.91m households.

The ongoing Wells Fargo/Wachovia integration is the largest in modern banking history.

This upcoming weekend Kansas will start by converting eight Wachovia financial centers as well as eight ATMs and will support an estimated 204,000 households throughout the Sunflower State.

The integration proved a worth strategy yet again during Q210 boosting profits from the merger to a total of $17.9bn over the six quarters the merger has been in process. Full integration of California's Wachovia branches was finished in Q210 in addition to the transfer of all credit card, mutual funds and trust businesses to Wells Fargo. Arizona, Colorado, Illinois and Nevada are also complete.

Conversion of Eastern markets, including Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Deleware, Washington D.C., Maryland, New Jersey and New York is scheduled to begin in Q310.

"The merger integration activities are proceeding on track," said chairman and CEO of Wells Fargo John Stumpf. "[T]he combined company continues to produce financial results including revenue synergies better than our original expectations."

Write to Christine Ricciardi.

Wednesday, July 28th, 2010

The governor of West Virginia announced an unparalleled housing strategy, and is now offering the best mortgage rates the state has ever seen — a 30-year fixed-rate of only 3.5%.

Not only that, but the program includes a 0% down payment policy and families are still eligible for closing cost assistance loans.

This program, run by the West Virginia Housing Development Fund, is able to achieve the rate through a $35m bond issue.

The mortgage does come with a few stipulations. The mortgage deal is available on a first-come, first-serve basis to only 280 qualified West Virginian families. The WV Housing Development Fund will move anyone into a targeted county, but any applicant wanting to move to a non-targeted county must be a first-time homebuyer.

"I am so pleased with the diligent work that the West Virginia Housing Development Fund has done to bring this tremendous housing opportunity into fruition for so many West Virginians," said governor Joe Manchin in a press release. "I am confident that this new mortgage program will be a win-win for both our citizens and the state's housing industry."

The West Virginia Housing Development Fund said they will start taking applications for loans immediately.

Write to Christine Ricciardi.

Wednesday, July 28th, 2010

According to figures released by the research department of the Bank of Federal Reserve Philadelphia, June housing permits in Delaware and New Jersey show new builds well above the national average, up 26.6% and 43.5% respectively.

According to the June 2010 Census Bureau release, residential units authorized by building permits from May to June also increased in Pennsylvania by 11.4%, below the national housing permits increase of 15.4% for the month.

The Philly Fed monitors permits in the three-state region. Over the past 12 months, permits in the nation declined 1.1 percent. Year-over-year, housing permits in the three states also increased; in Delaware by 24.1%, New Jersey, 43.2%, and Pennsylvania 27.6%.

"To remove the seasonality and monthly volatility in permits, we apply a seasonal adjustment and a three-month moving average to total permits," according to a statement by the Philly Fed.

"According to our seasonally adjusted moving-average series, total permits fell in all three states and the nation from May to June. Residential construction remains weak compared with the past decade, and the modest pace of growth present in the early part of 2010 faltered somewhat in June."

The multifamily sector experienced a sharp swing in June, with a double-digit drop in starts and a double-digit increase in new permits. Some have questioned the future performance of the sector, including a Credit Suisse report that said while real estate investment trusts (REITs) that specialize in apartment buildings are far exceeding other types of REITs in 2010, a number of headwinds may slow the sector's continued momentum for the rest of the year. In addition, Fitch Ratings reported that in June, the multifamily delinquency rate for commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) rose to 13.82%, from 13.65% in May.

Write to Jacob Gaffney.

The author holds no relevant investments.

Wednesday, July 28th, 2010

Fannie Mae is widening its interaction with insurers of mortgages it owns or securitizes as part of an effort to improve the accuracy of insurance coverage information.

Fannie-owned and -guaranteed mortgages with loan-to-value ratios higher than 80% — indicating less than 20% down payment provided by the borrower at the time of closing — require mortgage insurance.

The company is moving to improve the quality and accuracy of loan-level mortgage insurance coverage data. To do this, Fannie may at some point have to validate mortgage insurance policies and other information.

The GSE issued a servicing policy update (download here) requiring seller/servicers to instruct each mortgage insurer it partners with to provide Fannie with any information it may request concerning the mortgage and insurance policy.

"These instructions do not relieve seller/servicers of their obligations…to report mortgage insurance coverage terms completely and accurately to Fannie Mae, nor do they imply that the mortgage insurer rather than the seller/servicer will be the initial source of this data," Fannie said. "Rather, these instructions will facilitate Fannie Mae's ability to validate such terms directly with the mortgage insurer."

Fannie said it might require information about the origination, servicing and coverage of mortgage insurance policies — including any cancellation or rescission of coverage and the reasons and supporting documentation for such actions.

Seller/servicers must notify their current mortgage insurers — and begin notifying any new mortgage insurers — of the policy no later than Oct. 1, 2010. The policy will also apply to new Fannie-approved seller/servicers as they begin doing business with mortgage insurers after the effective date.

Providing insurers with written instructions at the outset of their relationships with Fannie-approved seller/servicers will ensure mortgage insurers' cooperation and the streamlining of data delivery, the company said.

Write to Diana Golobay.



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