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Archive for July, 2010

Thursday, July 22nd, 2010

Home prices are up in two leading economic indicators today, but instead of reacting positively, the housing industry remains troubled by the not-so-good news.

The 25-MSA Radar Logic residential property index (RPX) Monthly Composite for May finds that home prices increased 2.1% on a year-over-year basis, but adds that gains were not large enough to be described as a recovery. When looking at more than the numbers, Michael Feder, CEO of Radar Logic said the bigger picture points to more evidence of weakness, than strength.

"The patterns in this month's data are, in fact, troubling," said Feder. "Activity has rebounded over the last year, but there has been a shift toward lower priced housing.  We have not seen the recovery in prices that we would have expected with the return of volume."

U.S. house prices rose 0.5% between April and May, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency's (FHFA) monthly House Price Index report.  This is 1.2% lower than one year ago.  The Pacific Census Division (Hawaii, Alaska, Washington, Oregon and California) saw the greatest rise in prices at 1.8% while the East North Central (Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio) saw a drop of 0.6%.

Although house prices seem to be on a slight yet steady rise after going up by 0.3% in March and 0.9% in April, Capital Economics economist Paul Dales is not convinced the trend will continue.  He believes that housing market activity has yet to translate into double-dip prices and that the market could be as much as 5% below current levels by the end of next year.

"Admittedly, house prices on the seasonally-adjusted FHFA measure increased by 0.5% m/m in May.  That was the third rise in as many months," Dales said in data response Thursday.  "But prices in May were probably boosted by the lingering effects of the surge in demand generated by the homebuyer tax credit. Now that demand is falling, it won't be long before prices start to fall too."

In a statement from RPX, sales of foreclosed homes by lenders and mortgage servicers, which Radar Logic calls "motivated sales," decreased as a percent of total sales over the last year. These properties still accounted for 24% of home sales across the 25 MSAs tracked by Radar Logic. Motivated sales do not include short sales, bank-sanctioned sales by home owners for less than their outstanding mortgage balance. If short sales were included, motivated sales would account for a considerably larger share of total sales.

"The implication is that there is little volume in the sectors that are most likely to contain the 'underwater' loans, and as a result, the market is not absorbing this overhang," Feder added. "Unless this inventory overhang is remedied through market or structural forces, it will certainly continue to stifle any early recovery in housing."

Write to Christine Ricciardi.

Thursday, July 22nd, 2010

The nation's largest private mortgage insurer, MGIC Investment Corporation (MTG: 4.14 +6.98%) appointed Mark Zandi, the chief economist of Moody's Analytics, to its board of directors today.

MGIC provides $202.4bn in private mortgage insurance coverage to 1.3 million homes as of June 30, 2010.

"We are extremely pleased that MGIC will have the benefit of Mark's experience with macroeconomic models, financial markets and public policy. We look forward to the valuable insight and perspective that Mark will bring to our Board," said Curt Culver, MGIC's chairman and CEO, in a statement.

At the Moody's Investors Service subsidiary Zandi's research often focuses on mortgage foreclosure rates, personal bankruptcy and the economic impact of various tax and government spending policies.

The role of counsel is one that Zandi is familiar with, having testified before Congress and serving as an occasional advisor to the Obama administration as well as senior Republican policymakers.

Write to Jacob Gaffney.

The author holds no relevant investments.

Thursday, July 22nd, 2010

Bank of America Corp.'s plan to sell the insurance unit it acquired with Countrywide Financial Corp. may result in it liquidating properties faster after homeowners stop paying on debt underlying mortgage bonds, according to Amherst Securities Group analyst Laurie Goodman.

Loans underlying Countrywide's securities without government-backed guarantees have been slower to liquidate than those managed by other servicers, according to analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co., Barclays Plc and Amherst, an Austin, Texas-based broker of securitized debt.

Thursday, July 22nd, 2010

The number of Californians entering foreclosure slid dramatically in the second quarter to a three-year low as the fallout from the worst of the housing crisis continued to abate.

Default notices, the first stage of the foreclosure process initiated by banks on troubled homeowners, plummeted 43.8% in the second quarter over the same period last year to 70,051, and 13.6% from the first three months of the year, research firm MDA DataQuick of San Diego said Wednesday.

Thursday, July 22nd, 2010

The regulator of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac on Wednesday said he sees better quality on new home loans backed by the two companies, which were at the center of the US housing crisis.

"We've seen a significant improvement in the quality of new business as a result of tighter underwriting standards, and we're seeing better performance on the loss mitigation side as a result of more aggressive modifications and other foreclosure prevention activities," Edward DeMarco, acting director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, said in a speech in Dallas.

Thursday, July 22nd, 2010

Home values in major Bay Area cities are rising again. But a look at homes sold here at the height of the bubble and again in recent months gives an up-close view of how much the region's housing market remains off its peak and shows how widely individual homeowners' experiences have varied.

Thursday, July 22nd, 2010

The number of people applying for initial state unemployment insurance benefits rose 37,000 to 464,000 in the week ended July 17, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected an initial claims level of 450,000.

The Dodd-Frank financial reform legislation includes a $1bn emergency mortgage relief program for unemployed homeowners.

Thursday, July 22nd, 2010

In the last formal speech of his five-year term as Comptroller of the Currency, John Dugan said the financial crisis had exposed glaring gaps and differences in the regulation of different types of financial institutions and made clear the need for an updated capital framework.

"The fact is that our financial regulatory system was designed to be extremely bank centric," he said in a speech to the Exchequer Club. "Extensive rules and tremendous supervisory resources were focused on banks, with far less of both devoted to other types of financial firms. As these other types of firms became much more significant in the delivery of financial services through the growth of securitization, structured products, and derivatives, our bank-centric regulatory apparatus was not adjusted to keep pace."

Thursday, July 22nd, 2010

Deutsche Bank AG research analyst Pankaj Jha left the firm after it told clients one of his reports contained "significant similarities" to an article from Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc.

Jha left his position in New York as a mortgage-bond analyst this week, according to people familiar with the matter who declined to be identified because they weren't authorized to discuss it. Jha and John Gallagher, a spokesman for the Frankfurt-based bank, declined to comment.

Thursday, July 22nd, 2010

While Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) often gets a bad rap in the press, panelists at the loss mitigation conference in Dallas Thursday were less inclined to call the program a failure although they pointed to some weaknesses.

“I think overall it’s working really well for the borrowers, although there’s a lot of bad press around it,” said Bryan Bolton, senior vice president of loss mitigation with Citigroup (C: 30.87 +1.61%). But it’s also meant more work for servicers, he said.

“It has increased a lot of touch points for us. We’ve had to add a lot of staff,” Bolton said.

Bolton was one of four panelists at SourceMedia’s “Best Practices in Loss Mitigation” conference in Dallas Thursday. The panel, which discussed HAMP, HAFA and other loan modification options, was moderated by Kathy Castle, managing associate with Auriemma Consulting Group in New York.

Reporting and tracking requirements for HAMP changed almost on a weekly basis early in the process, said GMAC’s Katie Brewer. Now that it’s been in place awhile, loss mitigators have established more of a rhythm with the program, she noted. Brewer is vice president of loss mitigation with GMAC ResCap.

For smaller servicers, the overall cost of added documentation required by HAMP has been more onerous, panelists noted.

While success rate for HAMP hasn’t been what the government or servicers hoped, changes that made along the way will help improve it, but the continuous changes are also part of the frustration in trying to manage the program, said Mark D. Spangler, assistant vice president, section manager, with Huntington Home Savers Group. The group is part of Huntington National Bank.

Longterm, HAMP “wasn’t meant to be an end-all, be-all” and there are many other programs out there to assist borrowers, Brewer said.

Some borrowers are clearly unable to afford modifications, as a result there’s been a growth in short sales and other programs, panelists noted.

“It’s becoming a substantially larger part of our liquidation,” said Patrick DellaValle, vice president at RoundPoint Capital Group. The firm has been ratcheting up its incentive compensation for short sales, he noted. “It’s a win-win for both the servicer and the borrower,” he said.

At GMAC, the firm is looking at denied and failed modifications and seeking to get borrowers into short sales, but such discussions with borrowers can be very difficult, Brewer said. GMAC has a specialized group to work with borrowers through the short-sale process, including connecting them up with real estate brokers in their area. “We’ve really worked to handhold, and we’ve added some technology to streamline the process,” she said.

Bolton said Citigroup is offering fairly aggressive incentives to encourage borrowers to go the short-sale route, but isn’t getting many takers. Borrowers realize they have a timeline of about two years before a foreclosure works its way through the system, he said, so they are opting to stay put.

Outside of HAMP, lenders are coming up with some of their own innovative programs to reach borrowers who may not qualify for the strict debt-to-income ratio that HAMP uses to determine qualification.

Spangler, at Huntington, said the bank has seen some success with taking its loss mitigation group and splitting it up into specialties. The bank has a GSE team, a bank-owned portfolio group and a consumer group for second mortgages. Another team looks only at short sales. The idea is to reduce the borrower handoffs, he said.

RoundPoint has customized modification programs that include looking at residual income. The firm considers both principal forbearance and principal forgiveness as “carrot” incentives to get borrowers into an affordable payment and to restore equity.

Looking at a borrower’s cash flow is key in considering private modification programs, panelists said.

Going forward, DellaValle said he expects to see lower ratios of loss mitigators to borrowers for more individualized attention. Servicers also need to consider some credit counseling for borrowers, many who have too much debt with expenses ranging from multiple car loans to premium cable channels.

“There’s going to be a focus going forward on spending more time with each borrower,” DellaValle said.

Write to Kerry Curry.

Disclosure: the author holds no relevant investments.



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