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Archive for June, 2010

Friday, June 25th, 2010

A conference of House Representatives and Senators agreed early this morning on a sweeping financial regulatory reform bill after weeks of reconciliation between separate House and Senate versions.

The reconciled bill establishes the Consumer Finance Protection Bureau, ends taxpayer-funded bailouts, brings greater regulation to the derivatives market and provides grants through the US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) to help mortgage borrowers facing foreclosure.

The bill is a major step forward in protecting against future mortgage-related financial fallout, after weeks of discussion in the Congressional committee that reconciled the House and Senate bills.

"I worked from day one to clean up the mess that Wall Street and special interests caused with their greed, bringing our economy to the brink of collapse," said Rep Mary Jo Kilroy (D-OH) in a statement. "Wall Street failed Ohioans and Americans when they took bets on no-win investments that led the economy off a cliff. Taxpayers shouldn't ever foot the bill of foolish risk takers who think they can rely on the government bailing them out when they mess up."

The bill requires banks to hold 5% of any asset-backed securities issued, and introduces a $19bn tax on large financial institutions. However, exemptions are available for FHA and VA mortgages.

It also includes a framework for winding down large failed institutions, with funding initially coming from the Treasury Department. The language leaves open the possibility for the Treasury to recoup some of the costs, but "the mechanics…are unclear" as to how that would happen, according to Paul Ashworth, senior US economist at Capital Economics.

Ashworth noted there remains a "watered-down" version of the Volcker Rule, named for former Federal Reserve Board chair Paul Volcker, in the final bill. Under the bill, depository banks are required to curb proprietary trading and limit the size of — but not ban — direct investments in hedge funds or private equity funds.

"In our view, many of the provisions in the bill would help to reduce the risk of an identical crisis developing," Ashworth said. "Several of those provisions will collectively reduce the scope for large financial institutions to increase leverage and take excessive risks with the deposits entrusted to them."

He noted that the reconciled reform bill will not prevent another crisis, but will help ensure commercial banks do not take speculative risks.

"This time it was sub-prime mortgages and exotic asset-backed securities but, even though the effects are often similar, the causes of the crises always differ," Ashworth said. "Whether it is savings and loans, junk bonds, dot-com stocks, railroad stocks, Florida swampland or even tulips, there is always someone somewhere who is willing to borrow money to make what turns out to be an ill-advised speculative investment."

Write to Diana Golobay.

Additional reporting by Jacob Gaffney.

Friday, June 25th, 2010

Fannie Mae (FNM: 0.00 N/A) is sifting through borrower data to determine who is strategically defaulting and who is not after announcing more efforts this week to crack down on those who walk away from their homes. And if the GSE determines someone strategically defaulted, then they say they will hold the borrower accountable for all associated costs of getting the house back on the market, in areas that lawfully allow deficiency judgments.

Often when a home forecloses, Fannie Mae brokers and contractors discover vandalism and missing appliances and fixtures when they ready the home for resale, the GSE said. The cost of making those repairs and replacements will be included in the determination of the deficiency amount, a Fannie Mae spokesperson said, in addition to the difference in the mortgage balance and the proceeds from the foreclosure sale.

Those who Fannie Mae and its servicers deem strategically defaulted will not be able to secure a Fannie Mae-backed mortgage for seven years after the foreclosure and could face legal action in order for the company to recoup mortgage debt.

Fannie will base its assessment of who is and who isn’t walking away from their home on income verification, information on the borrower’s credit report, and borrower documentation related to the disposition of prior mortgage loans, the spokesperson for Fannie said.

When a borrower applies again for a Fannie Mae-backed mortgage, he or she would have to produce evidence of hardship or extenuating circumstances to get the loan.

“Borrowers who worked with their servicers to address delinquency and/or avoid foreclosure, will be viewed more favorably than those who do not,” the spokesperson said.

According to the announcement this week, Fannie is instructing its servicers to monitor delinquent loans on the verge of foreclosure and recommend cases where the company can pursue deficiency judgments.

Write to Jon Prior.

The author held no relevant investments.

Friday, June 25th, 2010

Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annual rate of 2.7% in Q110 from the previous quarter, according to the third estimate from the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).

At the same time, continued high levels of unemployment and weekly jobless claims are weighing on the economic outlook.

Real GDP — measured as the national output of goods and services produced by labor and property — grew 5.6% in Q409. The newly revised Q110 estimate is 30 basis points, or $9.6bn, lower than the previous estimate.

Today's estimate is based on "more complete" data than was available in recent months, the BEA said today. It marks the second downward revision, from 3.2% initially projected in April and the later-revised 3% estimated in May.

The first-quarter real GDP growth primarily reflects positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures, private inventory investment, exports and non-residential fixed income, BEA said. These gains were somewhat offset by contracting state and local government spending and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are subtracted from GDP, also increased.

Economist and fellow at the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) Lawrence Souza tells HousingWire a quarterly GDP growth of 5-6% is needed to bring down the national unemployment rate a single percentage point. At that rate, normal levels of employment at 95-96% of the available labor force (4-5% unemployment rate) could be achieved by 2015.

Weak private-sector employment numbers missed analyst expectations in May. Total non-farm payrolls grew by 431,000 in May as the 2010 Census added 411,000 temporary employees. The added jobs helped bring the unemployment rate down slightly to 9.7%, from 9.9% in April.

In May alone, employers took 1,412 separate mass layoff actions, resulting in the loss of 135,789 jobs, according to the US Department of Labor's (DOL) Bureau of Labor Statistics. Layoffs continue, with the DOL receiving 457,000 initial unemployment insurance claims in the week ending June 19, a decrease of 19,000 from the previous week, based on seasonally adjusted data.

Write to Diana Golobay.

Friday, June 25th, 2010

The sweeping financial regulatory reform bill agreed to this morning includes a provision sought by U.S. Rep. Chaka Fattah (D-PA) to help unemployed homeowners facing foreclosure.

A conference of House representatives and senators agreed early this morning on the financial reform bill after weeks of debate. It must still go to a full House and Senate vote but is expected to reach President Obama’s desk for a signature by July 4.

The provision provides $1bn to unemployed homeowners and is patterned after a program introduced by Fattah when he was a Pennsylvania state legislator. Pennsylvania's Homeowner's Emergency Mortgage Assistance Program (HEMAP) has provided $236m to tens of thousands of unemployed workers to stave off the foreclosure, according to Fattah’s office. Fattah had originally sought $3bn for the federal reform bill provision.

A spokesman in Fattah’s office said they are still awaiting final word from the House-Senate committee on how the provision would be funded. There were discussions last year about using untapped Troubled Asset and Relief Program (TARP) monies as the funding mechanism.

Under the program, qualified homeowners will be able to borrow up to $50,000 to assist them with their mortgage payments, provided that they have a reasonable prospect of resuming mortgage payments within 24 months.

"This funding will help so many Philadelphians and homeowners across the country who risk losing their homes after falling on hard times through no fault of their own,” said Philadelphia Mayor Michael A. Nutter in a prepared statement.

Write to Kerry Curry

Friday, June 25th, 2010

After announcing this week that it intends to crack down on strategic defaulters, Fannie Mae (FNM: 0.00 N/A) issued a servicing guide (download here) Friday implementing another new policy — requiring servicers to verify income, liabilities, and monthly expenses for all borrowers prior to granting a permanent standard Fannie Mae mortgage modification.

Previously, servicers were allowed to evaluate borrowers for standard mortgage modifications using stated information from the borrower.

Now, the servicer must not agree to change the terms of a mortgage until it verifies the borrower has a hardship, determines that a permanent standard Fannie Mae mortgage modification is the appropriate foreclosure prevention alternative and obtains Fannie Mae’s prior written approval, the guideline said.

Items that must be verified include salary and other income with paystubs or benefits checks, bills and a credit report.

If a borrower that receives a Fannie Mae modification becomes 60 or more days delinquent within the first year after the effective date of the modification, the new policy requires servicers to "immediately" work with the borrower to pursue either a preforeclosure sale or deed-in-lieu of foreclosure, or commence foreclosure proceedings, in accordance with applicable state law. If the servicer determines another modification is appropriate for the borrower, the servicer must first obtain Fannie Mae's prior written approval.

With as many as 1/3 of all mortgage defaults occurring by borrowers strategically deciding to walk away, Fannie Mae announced a plan to crack down on strategic defaulters with a policy announced Wednesday that prevents strategic defaulters from getting another Fannie Mae-backed mortgage for seven years.

Fannie Mae will also take legal action against borrowers who strategically default in order to recoup mortgage debt. These would be limited to locations that allow deficiency judgments.

Write to Austin Kilgore.

The author held no relevant investments.

Friday, June 25th, 2010

Mortgage rates hit all-time lows this week, amid a weak demand for new mortgages.

But even so, according to fixed income researchers at Credit Suisse (CS: 26.78 +0.26%), the majority of borrowers remain unable to take advantage of the exceptionally low rates that would reduce monthly payments. They find that only 38% of borrowers that could benefit from a refinance can actually do so due to a variety of barriers.

In commentary released this week, the analysts wrote that 73% of 30-year fixed-rate mortgages (FRM) are "refinanceable," meaning the new rate would be at least 50 basis points (bps) less than the old rate.

But the cost to refinance is higher in the current market and only 61% of 30-year FRM borrowers could see their mortgage rate reduced by at least 75 bps, the discount needed to make it cost effective for a borrower to refinance.

The pool of potential refinancers decreases even further because of stricter underwriting standards that will keep many refinancers on the sideline, keeping mortgage prepayment levels muted unless rates drop even further, the analysts wrote.

But if rates continue to decline, an increasing number of borrowers that would qualify for a refinance mortgage would find it cost effective to do so, increasing prepayments. Given current averages rates of 4.75% on 30-year FRMs, Credit Suisse estimates total prepayments of Agency mortgage would total $85bn, compared to average prepayments of $71bn during the previous three months. If mortgage rates decreased further, averaging 4.25% to 4.5%, prepayments would increase to $100bn to $110bn.

The increase in mortgage prepayments in relation to mortgage rates is tracked in the chart above. Strong borrowers are those with good credit scores, while weak are considered riskier borrowers.

"A meaningful increase in paydowns could result if mortgage rates rally by another 25bp-30bp," the report said. "This could have a modest adverse affect on the supply/demand outlook for Agency MBS [mortgage-backed securities]."

"We estimate that the supply/demand slack in Agency MBS in 2011 worsens by $50bn to $100bn if mortgage rates rally to a range of 4.5% to 4.25%, respectively," the report added.

Write to Austin Kilgore.

The author holds no relevant investments.

Friday, June 25th, 2010

The US housing market crash triggered the 2008 financial crisis and fueled a wave of mortgage defaults and foreclosures over the past two years. Now, growing numbers of well heeled Americans, their portfolios hammered by depressed markets, have stopped repaying loans or even walked away from mortgages.

"The affluent are not immune to the recession. It just took a while to manifest itself," said Jay Welker, chief executive of Wells Fargo Private Bank. "In this economy, the high net worth segment has had to de-leverage itself as well."

Friday, June 25th, 2010

Hedge fund manager John Paulson, president of Paulson & Co, is famous for his negative view on the US housing market that turned into a huge money-maker for his fund.

But Paulson refuted any suggested that his activities had any effect on the mortgage market, instead putting the responsibility on the shoulders of mortgage brokers.

Friday, June 25th, 2010

Senate Democrats abandoned on Thursday efforts to provide fresh aid to cash-strapped state governments and extend emergency unemployment benefits for millions of jobless workers, leaving in limbo President Obama's push for more spending to bolster the economy.

The decision came after the Senate failed again to muster 60 votes to advance a package of tax cuts and emergency economic provisions.

Friday, June 25th, 2010

The Financial Services Authority plans to make all mortgage advisers "personally accountable," as it introduced new rules for companies that deal with consumers who are behind on their mortgage payments.

The regulator, which started reviewing the mortgage market in October, said today all mortgage sales staff and firms must be FSA approved.



Origination/Lending
Kenneth Bacon, executive vice president of the Fannie Mae multifamily mortgage business, is retiring after 18 years at the mortgage...

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Servicing/Default
The serious delinquency rate for Federal Housing Administration mortgages reached 9.6% in December, the highest level in more than two...

Read More »