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Archive for June, 2010

Wednesday, June 16th, 2010

Mortgage defaults and foreclosure activity decreased in California from April to May, according to ForeclosureRadar, which tracks filings across the state.

Notices of default fell 17% from April to May, and 43% from May 2009. Notices of trustee sale dropped 11% in May and decreased 35% from last year. Past foreclosures, the amount of properties banks repossessed, dropped 5% in May and 13% from a year ago.

"I would love to say [the decrease] was due to short sales or loan modifications, but I see little evidence from residential home sales, or HAMP reports to support that theory. The question we should all be asking is, if it is not by foreclosure, short sale or loan mod, then how do lenders plan to deal with delinquent loans?"  Sean O’Toole, CEO of ForeclosureRadar. "Increasingly seems that they, and the regulators that in the past have forced the liquidation of non-performing assets, are simply waiting and wishing for a return to peak prices reached during the bubble."

The amount of real-estate owned (REO) inventory fell, too. REO properties dropped 2% from April and 18% from a year ago. Homes in pre-foreclosure fell 5% from last month and 17% from last year.

The time it took to foreclose on a property dropped slightly to an average of 235 days from 239 in April. O’Toole said the most telling statistic in May is that it now takes an extra two months for banks to foreclose on a home compared to a year ago, when the process averaged 180 days.

The average amount of time it took banks to resell a property after foreclosure grew to 252 days in May from 247 in April.

Write to Jon Prior.

Wednesday, June 16th, 2010

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), acting as conservator, directed Fannie Mae (FNM: 0.00 N/A) and Freddie Mac (FRE: 0.00 N/A) to de-list their common and preferred stock from the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and any other national securities exchange.

The price of the government-sponsored enterprises' (GSEs') common stock hovered near the NYSE minimum average closing price of $1 for more than 30 days for most months since the conservatorship took effect in September 2008, FHFA said in a statement today. Most recently, Fannie's closing stock price remained below the required $1 for the past 30 trading days.

Fannie said in an e-mailed statement today it received notification from the NYSE on Tuesday that the company no longer met the continued listing standards.

According to NYSE rules, Fannie is now in a condition that requires either a delisting from the exchange or a "cure" to restore the stock price above the $1 mark. But the alternatives to pursue such a cure, FHFA noted, would not guarantee the minimum price level can be maintained in the near-term.

Because Freddie's share price has kept close to the $1 mark — and in light of the GSEs' similar conservatorship status — FHFA decided to initiate the delisting process.

"A voluntary delisting at this time simply makes sense and fits with the goal of a conservatorship to preserve and conserve assets," said FHFA acting director Edward DeMarco, in a statement.

DeMarco noted the action "does not constitute any reflection on either Enterprise's current performance or future direction, nor does delisting imply any other findings or determination on the part of FHFA as regulator or conservator."

Once delisted, Fannie and Freddie stock is expected to be quoted on the Over-the-Counter Bulletin Board (OTCBB).

Write to Diana Golobay.

Disclosure: the author holds no relevant investments.

Tuesday, June 15th, 2010

Sen Harry Reid (D-NV) joined the call for an extended first-time homebuyer tax credit, introducing an amendment to the proposed American Jobs and Closing Tax Loopholes Act of 2010 being considered by the Senate.

The bill — House Resolution 4213 — passed the House vote in December and moved through the Senate Committee on Finance in March. Reid's amendment would extend the homebuyer tax credit by three more months.

"There is growing concern that because of the time it takes for banks to complete transactions such as short sales, many of these home purchases would not be complete before the deadline through no fault of the homebuyer," according to a statement from Reid's office.

He is joined in the effort by Sen Robert Mendendez (D-NJ) and Sen Chris Dodd (D-CT), who co-sponsored the proposed amendment.

Under the tax credit's current deadline, qualifying purchases that were under contract by April 30 must close by June 30. Under the proposed amendment introduced by Reid, that closing deadline would be pushed to Sept. 30, 2010 in an effort to ensure the qualifying sales can close.

"In addition to making it easier for thousands of [buyers] to purchase their first home, it helped reduce the sitting inventory of homes," Reid said in a statement. "By extending the transaction deadline, we can ensure that everyone taking advantage of this credit can complete the purchase of their new home."

Write to Diana Golobay.

Tuesday, June 15th, 2010

Bank of America (BAC: 7.29 -0.14%) has conceded it incorrectly uploaded numbers to the Treasury Department’s electronic reporting system used for tallying permanent modifications under the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP), leading to a numerical mismatch.

When BofA reported 70,000 permanent modifications conducted under HAMP through May, it blamed an uploading error for the 7,000 permanent modifications that the bank claims will be missing on the Treasury report later this month.

BofA missed a six-day window to report any pending modifications set to become permanent. The Treasury usually takes these numbers and credits them to that month, but because BofA missed the window, the 7,000 permanent modifications will bet tacked on to the June total and not the May one, according to an official at the Treasury.

No other servicer had problems uploading their numbers for May, which as one spokesperson for BofA said “had more to do with our inputting method than anything.

The Treasury official did not provide an exact date for when the May HAMP report would be released.

Borrowers must make three monthly payments and submit all documentation during the trial stage before receiving a permanent modification to their mortgage. In April, the participating servicers in HAMP reported 300,000 permanent modifications through HAMP.

Write to Jon Prior.

Tuesday, June 15th, 2010

The US economics team at financial firm Morgan Stanley (MS: 18.56 +2.26%) says in their latest research report that recent gains in the nation's economy point to a remote chance of a so-called double dip — where recent upticks in economic activity are only temporary — citing low mortgage rates as a key driver in drawing this conclusion.

"The dip in conventional 30-year mortgage rates to about 4.8% has triggered a minor refinancing boom; reduced debt service will further add to discretionary spending power for many mortgage borrowers," according to the report. "Taking these offsets into account, we expect net financial conditions to be roughly unchanged."

In their latest report, titled "Defying the Double Dip," authors Richard Berner and David Greenlaw look at several macroeconomic factors in coming to this result.  Lower fuel costs and greater infrastructure spending, for example, are providing relief to the American economy at-large, something they don't see changing anytime soon.

"To be sure, the recent surge probably overstates the new upswing, but there remains ample unspent Federal funding," the economists write, "and officials are unlikely to turn off the spigot in an election year when incumbents are threatened."

The report cites "powerful offsets" like the strong dollar, along with low mortgage rates, as potential hedges against the risk of a double dip. Indeed, they concede there are large market worries over growing sovereign debt levels, especially in Europe, where higher borrowing is expected to be favored over austerity measures in the short term.

Paul Ashworth, a senior economist for Capital Economics, did not agree totally with the Morgan Stanley assessment in a note on US manufacturing levels today.

"It is possible we will see a more marked decline in the coming months, as Europe's woes start to affect global trade and domestic inventory rebuilding begins to slow," he wrote.

Ashworth adds that the recent appreciation in the dollar, particularly against the euro, and lower commodity prices mean that over the next 12 months the rise in import prices over the past year will be largely reversed.

"This is another reason to suspect that both headline and core consumer price inflation is going to fall to 0.5% by year-end."

The Morgan Stanley economists recognize the concern that a stronger dollar in concert with the sovereign crisis may promote deflation, but aren't on-board with the theory.

"In contrast, we think the fundamentals for pricing power are gradually improving," they conclude, again with the view of stability in the short term. "Climbing rents, accelerating prices at the early stages of the processing pipeline, and rising import prices all are starting to signal that inflation is bottoming."

Write to Jacob Gaffney.

Disclosure: the author holds no relevant investments.

Tuesday, June 15th, 2010

The shadow inventory of distressed properties that back residential mortgage-backed securities will take nearly three years to clear at the current sales rate, according to the credit rating agency, Standard & Poor’s (S&P).

The shadow inventory is the amount of homes with delinquent mortgages yet to move through the foreclosure process. S&P narrows the definition down to the amount of outstanding properties 90 days or more delinquent, in foreclosure, or in REO status but not yet on the market.

S&P puts the total principal balance of the shadow inventory at $480bn or 30% of the entire non-agency market.

“Given this backlog, we believe that average home prices could fall again if demand doesn’t rise in step with the potential influx of supply,” said Diane Westerback, S&P credit analyst.

But the shadow inventory isn’t equally distributed across the US. Although the shadow inventory remains at historic levels, it varies from city to city. S&P reviewed the top-20 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) included in the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices.

S&P found the largest shadow inventory in New York City. There, it would take 103 months to clear the distressed properties, or more than 8 years. The national average is at 34 months. Phoenix had the smallest shadow inventory. That market would take 16 months to clear the amount distressed properties yet to hit the market.

Estimates on the shadow inventory, and the time it will take to clear, vary firm to firm. Morgan Stanley most recently said it could take four years to clear. Barclays Capital reported that it could peak at 4.7m in the summer of 2010. The research firm, Capital Economics, said the shadow inventory could reach 5.5m by the end of 2011.

Write to Jon Prior.

Tuesday, June 15th, 2010

When Bank of America (BAC: 7.29 -0.14%) reported 70,000 permanent modifications conducted under the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) through May, it blamed an uploading error for the 7,000 permanent modifications that the bank claims will be missing on the Treasury report later this month.

The Treasury, however, denies this and reports that there are no known errors with its electronic reporting system, according to an official at the government entity.

For May, BofA reported more than 70,000 permanent modifications conducted since the program launched in March 2009 through May 2010.

But, BofA said in the company statement that “[i]t is likely that more than 7,000 permanent modifications were not recorded as complete.”

As a result, BofA said that the Treasury HAMP report due out later this month will show 63,000 permanent modifications instead of the 70,000. This, said Rebecca Mairone, default servicing executive for BofA Home Loans, is due to “issues that we experienced in uploading some files to the computerized system.”

But a Treasury official told HousingWire there were no known errors in the Treasury’s system of record that would have prohibited all of the Bank of America permanent modifications from being entered and validated in the system of record.

The Treasury reports the amount of permanent modifications conducted through HAMP based on the numbers uploaded in the Treasury system of record by the participating servicers.

The Treasury official said that as servicers pushed more conversions from trials into permanent status, the Treasury public report issued every month showed pending permanent modifications in order to give servicers credit for permanent modifications that may not have been officially reported.

Borrowers must make three monthly payments and submit all documentation during the trial stage before receiving a permanent modification to their mortgage. In April, the participating servicers in HAMP reported 300,000 permanent modifications through HAMP.

Write to Jon Prior.

Tuesday, June 15th, 2010

After reaching a three-year high last month, homebuilder confidence was down for the first time in two months in the June National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo (WFC: 29.60 +1.89%) Housing Market Index (HMI).

Confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes fell back to levels last seen in February, before the upward swing experienced leading up to the contract deadline for the homebuyer tax credit. The HMI was at 17 in June, down five points from a value of 22 in May.

The confidence index results come on the heels of a report by the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University, which found that new housing permits are also off sharply, suggesting that starts will remain below normal levels for some time.

“The home buyer tax credit did its job in stoking spring sales and we expected a temporary pull back in the builders’ outlook after the credit expired at the end of April,” said NAHB chairman Bob Jones, a home builder from Bloomfield Hills, Mich. “However, the reduction in consumer activity may have been more dramatic than some builders had anticipated, which resulted in their lower confidence levels.”

The index is derived from a survey of builders' perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months, categorizing them as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” In addition, the survey asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” The scores for each component are used to calculate the index. A reading more than 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

NAHB's chief economist David Crowe said some softening in the market following the expiration of the homebuyer tax credit was expected.

“In the coming months, an improving economy, rising employment, low mortgage rates and stabilizing home values should help the housing market move forward," Crowe projects.

"But as today’s HMI data shows, builders still remain very cautious and are aware that several factors could impede the nascent housing recovery, including serious problems in obtaining financing for the production of housing, faulty appraisal practices and competition from short sales and foreclosed properties.”

In addition to the overall index value, the index for current sales conditions was at 17, down five points from May. The index for sales expectations was down four points to 23, the lowest its been since March 2009. The index for prospective buyer traffic was down two points to 14.

Regionally, the Northeast — a smaller region subject to volatile shifts — dropped 17 points to 18, after increasing 14 points in May. The West experienced a four-point decline to 15, while the Midwest and South both experienced three point declines, putting the regional indices at 14 and 19, respectively.

Paul Dales, a US economist at the Toronto-based Capital Economics said the confidence index decline supports the view that homebuilders got ahead of themselves by extrapolating forward the surge in demand generated by the tax credit. Dales added the declines in projected business are a wake-up call to the fact that the market will struggle to stand on its own two feet without the tax credit.

"Although this survey does not have a very close relationship with the data on actual home sales, it does nonetheless suggest that sharp falls in the latter are imminent," Dales wrote. "Overall, the double-dip in both activity and prices that we have been expecting for some time appears to have begun."

Write to Austin Kilgore.

The author held no relevant investments.

Tuesday, June 15th, 2010

Fannie Mae (FNM: 0.00 N/A) granted another extension to a reimbursement program for servicers who pay delinquency resolution counseling fees for troubled borrowers.

According to an e-mailed servicing policy update, the government-sponsored enterprise (GSE) extended the period of time for servicers to request reimbursement for counseling provided by members of the Hope Now private sector alliance of mortgage servicers, investors, insurers and non-profit counselors.

Servicers may now request reimbursement for counseled cases initiated on or after July 1, 2010 through June 30, 2011. The cases must be invoiced no later than Sept. 30, 2011 and the reimbursement requests must be submitted on or before Nov. 30, 2011, Fannie said.

According to a lender letter (download here), the reimbursement initiative was previously extended from its initial Dec. 31, 2008 deadline, through June 30, 2010. Servicers can receive a maximum $150 per case for each mortgage owned or securitized by Fannie and serviced under the GSE's special servicing option.

According to data tracked by Hope Now, completed loan modifications, trial modifications and other workout plans surged 92% to 1.36m in Q110, from 710,000 in the year-ago quarter.

"Alliance members have demonstrated their commitment to helping homeowners, their ability to find workable solutions and their willingness to implement multiple intervention solutions to stabilize markets and homeowners," said Hope Now executive director Faith Schwartz in May.

Write to Diana Golobay.

Disclosure: the author holds no relevant investments.

Tuesday, June 15th, 2010

I've called out real estate agents in this space in the past, asking them, in effect, when they thought they might start learning to sell real estate again.

My comments were motivated in part by observing an industry that seems to be waiting around for the government to give would-be homeowners another good enough reason to buy. Our motivation, in short, should not hinder on answers to questions such as, "Will the tax credit be extended?"

While I think that selling real estate is the job of the real estate agent and what they do to earn their commission, I also realize that it's no easy job, not in this market. I don't think mortgage lenders are doing anything to make it any easier.

If you read the news as often as I do, you've probably noticed the same trend. Many of the stories I see in the mainstream media—and all of those that deal with the federal government's approach to the economy—seem to be offering readers a view into when the government might step in and make their lives easier. If not TARP or HAMP or HAFA then some other program is bound to come down the pike to make it possible for people to feel successful again.

This is ridiculous to me.

At the risk of annoying loyal readers, and not all of you are sitting back waiting for your own personal bailout, but I feel compelled to point out that we'll all be a whole lot better off when the government quits trying to fix things and lets us all get back to work.

For real estate agents, getting back to work means getting back out into their neighborhoods and getting all of the answers to the questions prospective homeowners are likely to ask when they look at a new piece of property. It means getting their databases back in shape and calling on old customers for leads and listings. It means putting some ads in the paper, getting that Website spruced up and reconnecting with a community that wants to be growing, as all communities do (even if their residents do not want them to).

For lenders, it means putting down the newspapers that talk about what the government is going to do next and refocusing on the borrowers in their communities, the renters that still have some faith in the American Dream and who are just looking for someone trustworthy to help them navigate the process.

Waiting around to see if the government is going to offer a new tax cut for first time homeowners is not what I'm talking about here. I'm talking about getting back to work.

I was as happy as the next journalist to see that mortgage lenders, free of the bad influence of Wall Street investment bankers, were tightening up their guidelines and making more loans using more common sense and some human underwriters. But the industry must not forget that their business isn't just risk mitigation. It's mortgage lending.

To make that happen, we'll need to quit waiting on some federal agency and get back to work.



Origination/Lending
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