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Archive for June, 2010

Monday, June 21st, 2010

Bank of America is scaling back its global ambitions with the recent sale of stakes in international banks.

It’s a sharp reversal from a strategy former Bank of America CEO Ken Lewis touted on a visit to San Francisco and mentioned frequently to the investment community.

The nation's largest bank saw the investments as a way to participate in growing economies around the world while leveraging its skills as a retail-banking powerhouse.

Monday, June 21st, 2010

Expect Bank of America Corp. to sell more of its assets to meet a government order to raise capital. And soon.

With less than two weeks remaining, BofA still hasn’t met a government deadline to raise $3 billion in equity by selling pieces of the $2.3 trillion company.

The Charlotte-based bank is required to raise the additional equity as part of its repayment of a $45 billion taxpayer bailout.

Monday, June 21st, 2010

Servicers participating in the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) conducted 340,459 permanent modifications through May 2010 since the program launched in March 2009, up from 299,092 through April, according to the Treasury Department.

The Treasury launched HAMP to provide incentives to servicers for the modification of mortgages on the verge of foreclosure. In order to receive a permanent modification, borrowers must make three monthly payments during the trial period and submit all documentation.

In May, servicers converted 47,724 trial modifications into permanent status, a 30.1% decrease from 68,291 conducted in April. In May, there were 6,357 permanent modifications canceled, include 124 mortgages that borrowers paid off.

The Obama Administration set an early goal for 3m to 4m borrowers to receive aid under HAMP before the program expires at the end of 2012. After 14 months, servicers have reached over 10% of that mark.

Servicers have offered 1.5m three-month trial modifications through May and have stared 1.2m of them.  There are currently 467,672 active trial modifications. Servicers reported 30,099 new trials since April.

Borrowers receiving a permanent modification received an average 36% discount on their monthly payments for an average of more than $500 a month. According to the Treasury, borrowers with a permanent modification are guaranteed lower payments for five years and fixed terms at current market rates for the remaining life of the loan.

HomeEq, the former servicing arm of Barclays Capital and recently bought by Ocwen Financial Corp. (OCN: 13.96 +1.53%), converted 86% of its trial modifications into permanent status, the highest of any servicer. It has converted 3,054 permanent modifications and holds 16,233 HAMP-eligible loans.

Ocwen converted 83% of its trials into permanent status, totaling 13,384 permanent modifications. Carrington Mortgage Services had the third highest conversion rate at 79%, totaling 1,914 permanent modifications.

The big-four banks all had similar conversion rate numbers. Wells Fargo (WFC: 29.60 +1.89%) led them with 26% converted to permanent status, totaling 40,759 permanent modifications.

JPMorgan Chase (JPM: 37.21 -0.75%) converted 25% for a total of 47,467 permanent modifications.

CitiMortgage, the servicing arm of Citigroup (C: 30.87 +1.61%) converted 25% as well, totaling 34,675 permanent modifications.

Bank of America (BAC: 7.29 -0.14%) holds the highest amount of permanent modifications of any participating servicer, at 62,969, a 24% conversion rate. BofA holds more than 478,000 HAMP-eligible loans. According to BofA, it conducted nearly 70,000 permanent modifications as of May, but because of a reporting delay, an additional 7,000 will be on the June HAMP report.

Write to Jon Prior.

The author holds no relevant investments.

Monday, June 21st, 2010

The amount of billings for architects increased for the first time since the middle of 2007, on the back of rising demand for smaller houses, according to a survey from the American Institute of Architects (AIA).

Kermit Baker, AIA chief economist, said it is the first encouraging sign in two years that an economic recovery is near.

“The home improvement market, including both additions and structural alterations as well as remodeling projects, continues to be the healthiest sector of the market,” Baker said.

AIA conducted a survey of 500 architecture firms that concentrate practices in the residential sector. AIA also found that American homebuyers are showing greater interest in smaller homes and lot sizes.

According to the survey, the economic downturn and growing concerns over rising utility costs have created a demand for smaller homes and lot sizes.

The findings echo a report from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) that showed the average floor space of the single-family home averaged 2,438 square feet in a 2009 report from the Census Bureau, down from 2,521 in 2007.

“We continue to move away from the ‘McMansion’ chapter of residential design, with more demand for practicality throughout the home,” Baker said. “And with that there has been a drop off in the popularity of upscale property enhancements such as formal landscaping, decorative water features, tennis courts and gazebos.”

Baker added that there has been a steady decline in square footage in home design in recent years.

“The preference instead seems to be for more flexible, open and informal layouts that allow for both ease movement and fostering a space more conducive to family living,” Baker said.

Write to Jon Prior.

Monday, June 21st, 2010

The Obama Administration released the first edition of its monthly housing scorecard that tracks housing market indicators as well as efforts by the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) and the Making Home Affordable programs to prevent foreclosures.

The monthly report (download here) is an aggregate of housing initiative reports, including the most recent Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) numbers, which showed that servicers completed 47,700 permanent modifications in May, down approximately 30% from the 68,100 completed in April. Since the program launched in March 2009, a total of 340,459 modifications have gone permanent and are active through the program, or approximately 11.3% to 8.5% of the projected 3m to 4m modifications the program is expected to generate by its expiration in December 2012.

"For the first time we have comprehensive data that shows how all of the administration's unprecedented housing recovery efforts are working and the results they're producing in our neighborhoods and communities," Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) secretary Shaun Donovan said in a conference call with reporters.

"The scorecard we release today helps the public connect the dots so that people can see for themselves how the steps we took are impacting their families, their neighborhoods and our economy," Donovan continued.

The scorecard also reported that more than 839,000 borrowers received counseling from a HUD-approved agency during Q110, bringing the total number of borrowers receiving counseling to 3.56m since April 1, 2009.

The report also cites Federal Reserve Board data that showed during Q110, aggregate home equity in the United States increased $28.6bn, bringing the total increase in home equity to more than $1trn since April 1, 2009.

A section of the scorecard covers housing indicators, including the HUD and Census Bureau home sales data, the Standard & Poor's (S&P)/Case-Shiller home price index, mortgage origination data, mortgage delinquency rates, as well as CoreLogic (CLGX: 14.56 +0.62%) projections on the number of underwater homeowners.

Write to Austin Kilgore.

The author held no relevant investments.

Monday, June 21st, 2010

Most of us know all too well the four Cs of underwriting: capacity, character, collateral, and credit. The four Cs have in many ways defined risk-based pricing on mortgages for decades, and are a convenient way to segment the myriad failures that led our economy to the precipice, as well.

I can’t help but wonder, however, if it’s finally become time in this country to add a fifth C to the mix. Call it “calculation”—as in a borrower’s ability to understand basic math. Picture the following scenario:

Want a mortgage on that gorgeous three bedroom Spanish Mission-style stunner you’ve had your eye on? Great! Before I draw up the papers and quote you a mortgage payment, I just need you to answer five questions for me:

1. What’s half of 300?

2. What’s 10 percent of 1,000?

3. 6,000 is two-thirds of what number?

4. What’s 2 million divided by five?

5. Let’s say you have $200 in a savings account. The account earns ten per cent interest per year. How much will you have in the account at the end of two years?

Call it the Mortgage Aptitude Test, or MAT. After all, the SAT, GMAT, LSAT and other proficiency exams are all prerequisites to the pursuit of higher education—yet we don’t test applicants on their basic math skills before handing them the single largest debt they will ever be asked to manage in their lifetime?

The five questions above, by the way, aren’t random. Nor are they part of some post-graduate educational hangover I may have. They’re taken from a 2007 study, and used in academic research to assess an individual’s degree of financial literacy; I stumbled across them again in a recent Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta working paper led by Columbia University assistant business professor Stephan Meier (hat tip here goes to Bob Tedeschi at the New York Times, as well).

Here’s what the 5 questions can tell you, depending on how people answer each. Those with the lowest level of numerical aptitude answer 1, 2, or 3 incorrectly or answer question 1 correctly but miss on 2, 3 and 4. The next lowest level is comprised of those people who answer any of the first four questions incorrectly, followed by the group that answer the first four correctly, but miss on question 5. Of course, those with the highest level of aptitude answer all 5 questions correctly.

The Atlanta FRB paper is a fascinating read—what Meier and his colleagues find in a study of borrower behavior is that (gasp!) those subprime borrowers with poor analytical aptitude (those in the lowest group described above) are roughly three times more likely as other subprime borrowers to go into foreclosure. Those subprime borrowers with high analytical skills? An incredibly lower likelihood of foreclosure.

What makes the study most interesting to me is that this trend of analytical aptitude affecting foreclosure likelihood holds true even when the authors control for all sorts of extraneous factors usually thrown around as explanations for default risk— including socio-economic characteristics, consumer preferences, household financial status, employment history and status, FICO score, and loan-level characteristics.

Here’s the real kicker: across numerous studies using the above questions to assess analytical aptitude, roughly 16% of Americans tend to fall into the lowest-level analytical category. It’s certainly not an insignificant number. Think of 10 of your friends; and then realize that it wouldn’t be surprising if 2 of them fit the bill here.

Most of us, BTW, fall into group two—those that answer at least one of the first four questions incorrectly.

Meier and his colleagues conclude their analysis with the following missive:

The results suggest that the correlation between mortgage delinquency and financial literacy is not due to financially illiterate borrowers taking on too much debt, or choosing excessively risky mortgages. We are able to control for many details of the mortgage contracts, but find that the correlation is not sensitive to their inclusion in the econometric models. This suggests that limited numerical ability might lead to other mistakes over the course of time, like too much spending, too little savings, or inappropriate reaction to income and/or consumption shocks.

Remind me again why we aren’t administering something like a MAT prior to the decision to lend? Especially if aptitude in analytics is a direct predictor of default behavior that transcends the lending instrument, job status, even FICO scores—all of our usual risk indicators?

The questions this research brings about, too, are fascinating: would a more effective focus on math programs in our school systems actually help drive better borrower behavior later on in life? Are those students that are denied an education in basic math being set up for later failure? Is analytical aptitude something that is truly a function of the quality of education, something that can be taught if enough people are given access?

Frankly, I know I’d much rather see a debate around these sort of issues than read another press statement from ___(insert Congressperson looking for a vote)___ about how we need to change the GFE and HUD-1 forms to make them easier for consumers to understand. Because this study makes it damn clear that bar is going to be set pretty low, if so.

After all, if someone doesn’t know that 150 is half of 300, any number on any form is likely one number too many.

Paul Jackson is the publisher of HousingWire.com and HousingWire Magazine. Follow him on Twitter: @pjackson

Monday, June 21st, 2010

A co-founder of Internos Real Investors, a London-based real estate fund manager with nearly $2bn in assets, is predicting a double dip recession in Europe and naming pockets of property investment on the continent in a recent research report.

Jos Short, former CEO of Pramerica's real estate private equity business, founded Internos in 2008 with Andew Thorton, former COO of Invesco real estate investments in Europe. In his Summer 2010 outlook Short says he can no longer write in terms such as there is "caution about economic times" saying that they strongly suspect "a second cyclical downturn in parts of Europe."

"In 2-5 years time, which countries or perhaps which sectors in Europe will have been able to achieve real estate stability, even growth, through the feared dip?" Short asks in his decisive eye bulletin, adding that the double dip will likely not lead to contagion globally.

Short recommends stocking up on German property investments above all else. France is also likely to offer strong property investments as, outside the Eurozone, Scandinavia looks to perform well.

Considering the long-term scarcity predicted for senior housing and an expected student boom, investments in rental properties is considered a favorable asset class, as is self-storage properties, a relatively new concept in Europe, Short says.

Write to Jacob Gaffney.

Disclosure: the author holds no relevant investments.

Monday, June 21st, 2010

National housing prices increased 2.6% in April 2010 compared to April 2009 in the CoreLogic (CLGX: 14.56 +0.62%) monthly home price index (HPI).

It's the second month in a row that prices have increased from the same month one year ago. The April increase comes after a 2.3% year-over-year increase in March. The HPI was upwardly revised from an original projection of a 1.7% increase for March.

Month-over-month, the national average HPI increased 0.8% in April compared to March, up from the 0.1% increase from February to March. The chart below shows year-over-year prices changes by state:

Since the HPI peaked in April 2006 to the current HPI level, prices are down 29.5%. In April 2009, all of the 100 core based statistical areas (CBSAs) CoreLogic tracks experienced a year-over-year decrease. Since then, the number of CBSAs with positive year-over-year gains has increased every month. In April 2010, 60 of 100 markets experienced increases.

“The monthly increase in the HPI shows the lingering effects of the homebuyer tax credit,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic. “We expect that we will see home prices remain strong through early summer, but in the second half of the year we expect price growth to soften and possibly decline moderately.”

Hawaii lead all states in year-over-year price appreciation at 13.4%, followed by Massachusetts (7.4%), California (7.3%), Virginia (6.5%) and New Hampshire (5.2%).

Idaho leads all states in year-over-year price decline in April, with the HPI down 7.2%, followed by Illinois (5.8%), Nevada (4.6%), Maryland (4.3%) and Washington (3.7%).

When distressed sales are removed from the equation, CoreLogic said prices increased 2.2% year-over-year in April, better than the 1% increase in the non-distressed HPI during March.

From peak to current, excluding distressed properties, the change in the HPI is -21.1%.

Excluding distressed sales, Hawaii again leads all states in year-over-year price increases at 10.6%, followed by California (8.4%), North Dakota (6%), New York (3.7%), and Virginia (3.6%).

The states with the worst HPI levels excluding distressed sales were Nevada (5.6%) Michigan (4.1%), Arizona (3.4%), Florida (3.4%) and Washington (3.1%).

Write to Austin Kilgore.

The author held no relevant investments.

Monday, June 21st, 2010

A look at stories across HousingWire’s weekend desk…with more coverage to come on bigger issues:

During a conference call later this morning, the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the Treasury Department will announce the creation of a new monthly national housing scorecard. The Obama administration initiative will combine housing market indicators along with the progress of the administration's homeowner assistance programs, including efforts by the Federal Housing Administration and the Making Home Affordable programs to help homeowners.

In addition to HUD secretary Shaun Donovan, HUD assistant secretary Raphael Bostic, Treasury assistant secretary Herb Allison, HUD senior advisor for mortgage finance Bill Apgar and Treasury home preservation office chief Phyllis Caldwell are expected to participate in the announcement.

The White House called on Republicans to stop efforts to block Congressional action on a series of legislation and political appointments — including a bill that would extend the closing deadline for the homebuyer tax credit.

Last week, senators passed an amendment to the American Jobs and Closing Tax Loopholes Act of 2010 that would extend the June 30 deadline to close on a house sale to Sept. 30 for first-time and existing homebuyers to be eligible for the homebuyer tax credit. The legislation also includes spending on extended unemployment benefits and spending on educational initiatives.

"Unfortunately, the Republican leadership in the Senate won’t even allow this legislation to come up for a vote," President Obama said in his weekly address (watch here). "And if this obstruction continues, unemployed Americans will see their benefits stop. Teachers and firefighters will lose their jobs. Families will pay more for their first home."

Obama was also critical of the standstill on 136 political appointees that have not been confirmed by the Senate and legislation that would increase the liability on corporations responsible for natural disasters.

"I know the political season is upon us in Washington. But gridlock as a political strategy is destructive to the country," Obama said. "Whether we are Democrats or Republicans, we’ve got an obligation that goes beyond caring about the next election. We have an obligation to care for the next generation."

New commercial mortgage-backed security (CMBS) issuance was one of the most popular topics discussed during last week's Commercial Real Estate (CRE) Finance Council's June convention, according to analysis published by Barclays Capital (BarCap).

A number of speakers agreed that the new origination and securitization volume year-to-date is lighter than what was initially expected, BarCap said, adding on the origination side, loan supply remains low, as borrowers’ demand for conduit-style loans is not as high as initially expected and as the availability of properties not encumbered by debt and suitable for conduit securitization remains somewhat limited.

Another concern at the conference was the future of warehousing, as the accumulation of loans for further securitization is still challenging for the conduit platforms, the report continued. CMBS continues to face competition from insurance companies that are quoting loans at prices that the conduit platforms cannot afford. As a product, CMBS needs improved brand recognition to remain competitive, the report added.

On the residential side of the market, it appears residential rental yields are returning to "normal" levels, according to weekly commentary published by JPMorgan (JPM: 37.21 -0.75%).

Rental yields bottomed in 2007, but are now back to pre-housing bubble levels, JP Morgan analysts wrote. The impact of this is that as foreclosures force more homeowners to become renters — JPMorgan puts that number at more than 2m during the next three years — the market needs real estate investors.

The chart below tracks rental yields nationally and in the West:

While JPMorgan expects the market's low mortgage rates should remain that way for the foreseeable future, the availability of credit is low, and that's hurting investors ability to get into the residential rental market. The rental market also needs job growth to bring more renters into the market.

For the second week in a row, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC) reported only one bank failure over the weekend. The Nevada Financial Institutions Division closed Reno-based Nevada Security Bank. As receiver, the FDIC entered into a purchase and assumption agreement with Roseburg, Oreg.-based Umpqua Bank, which did not pay a premium to assume all of failed bank's $$479.8m in total deposits.

The five Nevada Security Bank branches reopened as branches of Umpqua Bank. Umpqua Bank will purchase "essentially all" of the failed bank's $480.3m in assets. The estimated cost the FDIC Deposit Insurance Fund is $80.9m. It is the 82nd bank failure of 2010, compared to 40 by the third week of June 2009.

Write to Austin Kilgore.

The author held no relevant investments.

Friday, June 18th, 2010

Ginnie Mae is delaying changes to its multiple issuer pool requirements.

Ginnie president Ted Tozer told HousingWire in April the change was expected to be in place in time for the June mortgage-backed securitization (MBS) issue.

The changes, which reduce the minimum dollar amount and the count of loans eligible for submission for securitization, will now go into effect beginning in the July and August MBS issues.

Ginnie will reduce the minimum number of loans for delivery into the multi-lender program down to one from three. It will also reduce the minimum dollar amount to $25,000 from $250,000 and require the coupon rates in half or whole percentages.

"At the request of the industry, Ginnie Mae is delaying the implementation in order to be able to phase in the requirement that the coupon rate be in whole or half percentages, to allow its business partners additional time to clear out their securitization pipelines," the company said in a statement.

The new minimum-dollar mount and one-loan minimum requirements apply to multiple-issuer loan packages received on or after July 6, 2010. The requirement related to half and whole coupon rates will take effect Aug. 1, 2010. All loan packages submitted for August issuance and beyond must meet the half or whole rate requirement or face rejection by Ginnie.

The changes in minimum requirements are designed to support liquidity at approved mortgage lenders and securities issuers.

Additionally, beginning in the fall of 2010, issuance for Ginnie II multiple-issuer pools can occur on a daily basis, rather than once a month. This will clear warehouse credit lines more often and will support liquidity at these firms.

Write to Diana Golobay.



Origination/Lending
Kenneth Bacon, executive vice president of the Fannie Mae multifamily mortgage business, is retiring after 18 years at the mortgage...

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Servicing/Default
The serious delinquency rate for Federal Housing Administration mortgages reached 9.6% in December, the highest level in more than two...

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