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Archive for June, 2010

Tuesday, June 22nd, 2010

The US housing market will experience a second recession, forcing banks to post additional loan-loss reserves, analyst Meredith Whitney said.

"Most investors are not baking in a double-dip in housing," said Whitney, founder of New York-based Meredith Whitney Advisory Group.

Tuesday, June 22nd, 2010

Barclays's purchase of Lehman Brothers Holdings' brokerage in the falling markets of September 2008 occurred in "the riskiest week of my life," the UK bank's chief executive said.

"Markets were collapsing," Barclays group chief executive John Varley told a federal judge today in Manhattan. "We needed to ensure there was a buffer between assets and liabilities. We needed to be able to look regulators in the eye and say the deal would be capital accretive."

Tuesday, June 22nd, 2010

I’ve conducted thousands of interviews with mortgage executives since I started covering this business back in the '90s. During many of those interviews, I’ve asked leaders of some of the industry’s most successful companies how they came to work in home finance. I have yet to hear a single executive tell me that they left high school intent on entering a university in the hope of one day becoming qualified to run a mortgage company.

People just end up here, for whatever reason. I’m no different. A writer who loves technology, I found myself writing about the mortgage industry one day and found something like a home here. I’ve enjoyed it immensely. But looking back, there were clues that might have predicted this. One of my early jobs was courthouse researcher for a title and abstract company.

Back in the '80s, title companies were working pretty much they way they had since the beginning, at least in the rural Midwest. When a new order came in, the boss would hand me the names of the grantors and grantees and I’d trot across the street to the courthouse and make my way into the County Recorder’s vault and start poking around in the big, dusty, leather-bound record books. Later, I’d head over the tax assessor’s office and the county clerk’s, looking for any past due taxes or recent judgments.

I’d compile my findings and carry it all back across the street to the office. I never dreamed that one day title companies would be on the leading edge of home finance innovation.

But that’s exactly what I’m finding. In fact, I’m working on a story now about this very topic for my next column in the print edition of HousingWire Magazine. It turns out that the new RESPA changes have prompted some forward thinking title companies (and the technology firms that support them) to step up and offer some new tools.

I think this is interesting because for most of the time I’ve been reporting on this business, title companies were the ones most engaged in keeping everything exactly the same as it has always been. Sure, the bigger firms will argue with me and tell me about all the client-facing innovation they’ve engaged in over the years to keep their clients happy. The truth is that title insurance has been, at least for the recent past after the sector’s consolidation, dominated by a few giant companies that have been so resistant to change that when one innovative company stepped forward with a new title product a few years back, the other firms in the space sued it nearly to death. Change has not been viewed as a friend to the title insurance business.

There are, of course, many excellent reasons why title companies hate change and they are generally immediately preceded by a dollar sign. But one of the consequences of an administration that is desperate to create change before the rest of its former constituents give up on it completely is, well, change.

I seriously doubt that the new RESPA rules will have any impact on borrowers’ ability—or willingness—to shop around during the mortgage origination process. But then, I would have said I had no faith in the changes causing anything but kicking and screaming on the part of title companies, and there I would have been wrong.

I’ll tell you more about some innovative title industry execs in a future Beyond Binary column. Until then, I’ll be watching this sector to see what these guys do next.

Rick Grant is a veteran journalist, covering mortgage technology and financial markets. Follow him on Twitter: @NYRickGrant

Tuesday, June 22nd, 2010

Austin, Texas-based financial services provider Amherst Securities Group is actively expanding its commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) platform. The firm added John Caputo as its primary CMBS trader.

Effective Monday, Caputo joined the firm's New York office. He brings nearly 20 years of commercial real estate experience — including as a loan underwriter, desk trader and bond portfolio manager — to the position.

"There is a tremendous opportunity for Amherst to expand its mortgage trading efforts into the CMBS market," said Amherst chairman and CEO Sean Dobson, in a press statement. "We are convinced that John's extensive trading and loan credit background will be critical to our success as we build out this important new platform at Amherst."

Caputo previously managed the residential MBS and CMBS trading efforts at hedge fund C12 Capital Management. Prior to that, Caputo worked as a CMBS trader at Barclays Capital and at Saloman Brothers/Smith Barney/Citi.

"I am confident that the combination of John's credit and trading expertise, Amherst's proprietary analytics and our strategy efforts will enhance Amherst's ability to evaluate and offer commercial mortgage-backed securities trading opportunities to our clients," said Amherst head of CMBS strategy Darrell Wheeler.

Write to Diana Golobay.

Tuesday, June 22nd, 2010

Mortgage servicers refinanced 53% more Fannie Mae Mae and Freddie Mac loans under the Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP) in Q110 than in the previous quarter, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA).

Delinquencies are improving as well in the Fannie and Freddie portfolios. According to the FHFA, the amount of loans behind by 60 or more days declined for the first time in two years, dropping by more than 23,000 to roughly 1.7m in Q110.

The servicers refinanced 291,600 Fannie and Freddie loans at the end of Q110, up from 190,180 at the end of Q409. Since April 1, 2009, servicers refinanced more than 3.9m Fannie and Freddie loans.

Monthly, refinancing dropped slightly in March 2010 as the 30-year mortgage rates fluctuated narrowly over the past few months, hovering around 5%.

Servicers prevented 75% more foreclosures in Q110, using modifications, short sales and deeds-in-lieu with refinancing.

Servicers tripled the amount of permanent modifications of Fannie and Freddie loans under the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) to 136,000 at the end of Q110, up from 43,000 at the end of Q409. More than 448,000 borrowers entered a HAMP three-month trial modification at the end of March.

About two-thirds of the modifications conducted in Q409 reduced monthly payments for borrowers by more than 20%, according to the FHFA.

Write to Jon Prior.

Tuesday, June 22nd, 2010

JP Morgan Chase (JPM: 37.21 -0.75%) shuffled three senior executives as part of a push to broaden international banking operations, the company said today.

JPM named Heidi Miller president of international business operations — a new role at the firm. Miller will spearhead efforts to streamline and prioritize JPM's overseas obligations and previously served as head of treasury and securities services (TSS) at the firm.

Succeeding Miller is Michael Cavanagh, previously chief financial officer (CFO) since 2004. JPM also named Doug Braunstein, former head of investment banking for the Americas, as the new CFO, succeeding Cavanagh.

The reshuffling comes as part of JPM's international expansion. JPM added Miller's new role to help accelerate growth of business lines outside the US.

Miller will lead expansion in JPM's global corporate bank along with investment bank CEO Jes Staley and new TSS head Cavanagh. Miller will also chair a newly-created international operating committee, which consists of JPM's senior global leaders. She will develop an international business strategy alongside senior colleagues, identifying growth opportunities around the world and accelerating expansion in countries like China, Brazil, India and Russia.

"In developing great leaders and building a strong company, we focus on continually broadening the experience of our executives and working to deploy their talents and expertise across the organization," said JPM chairman and CEO Jamie Dimon, in a statement. "Our firm has developed an excellent management bench, and today's moves reflect our goal of building on our team's experience and providing them with new opportunities to make our company even better."

Write to Diana Golobay.

Disclosure: the author holds no relevant investments.

Tuesday, June 22nd, 2010

In the first month after the deadline to sign a contract for the homebuyer tax credit, the annual rate of existing home sales declined 2.2%, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The numbers reflect borrowers closing during the period leading up to the end of June, when the $8,000 tax credit on buying a first-time home expires. To qualify, potential homeowners needed to put in an offer on the house by the end of April.

Those transactions are measured in today's report from NAR. "We are witnessing the ongoing effects of the home buyer tax credit, which we’ll also see in June real estate closings," said NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun.

NAR said gains in the West and South were offset by a decline in the Northeast, while the Midwest region was steady from the previous month.

The seasonally adjusted annual rate of existing home sales was 5.66m units in May, down 2.2% from the upwardly revised rate of 5.79m in April. The April rate was revised from a 7.6% increase to an 8% increase. However, May closings are 19.2% above the annual rate of 4.75m units in May 2009. NAR's existing home sales index measures completed sales transactions of single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops. Nationally, all types of housing declined month-over-month.

The national median existing home price was $179,600 in May, up 2.7% from May 2009, NAR said. Distressed homes accounted for 31% of sales in May, compared to 33% in the previous month and in May 2009.

In the single-family home sector, sales declined 1.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.98m in May from a pace of 5.06m in April. Single-family sales are up 17.5% from a year ago. The median existing single-family home price was $179,400 in May, 2.7% above a year ago.

Prices were higher year-over-year in 16 of 20 major metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) NAR tracks and sales of existing single-family homes were up in 18 of 20 markets compared to May 2009.

Existing condo and co-op sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 680,000 in May, down 6.8% from the April rate of 730,000. Condo and co-op sales are up 32.6% from the rate of 513,000 in May 2009. The median existing condo price was $181,300 in May, up 3.4% from a year ago.

Regionally, the drop in existing sales of all property types in the Northeast pulled down the national rate. The annual rate of 890,000 in May was down 18.3% from April, but up 12.7% from a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $240,200, down 2.2% from May 2009.

The West experienced the largest increase in existing sales. The annual rate of 1.29m is up 4.9% from April and up 15.2% from a year ago. The median price in the West was $221,300, up 7.4% from a year ago.

The South was also up slightly. Existing sales were at an annual rate of 2.15m in May, up 0.5% from April and up 22.9% above a year ago. The median price in the South was $159,000, up 1% from May 2009.

The Midwest was even from a month ago. The annual rate of 1.33m is up 22% from a year ago and the median price was $150,700, up 2.2% from a year ago.

NAR president Vicki Cox Golder said that while distressed sales at roughly the same level as a year ago, the gain in home prices is a sign that the market is in a good position to stand on its own without further government stimulus.

"Very affordable mortgage interest rates and stabilizing home prices are encouraging home buyers who were on the sidelines during most of the boom and bust cycle," Golder said, citing Freddie Mac data that showed the national average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 4.89% in May, down from 5.1% in April.

A separate survey of NAR members reported first-time homebuyers accounted for 46% of home sales in May, down from 49% in April. Investors accounted for 14% of transactions, down from 15% in April. The remaining sales were to repeat buyers. All-cash sales accounted for 25% of transactions, down from 26% in April.

The total supply of housing was 3.89m at the end of May, down 3.4% from April. That's an 8.3-month supply of housing at the current sales pace, down from an 8.4-month supply in April.

Write to Austin Kilgore.

Tuesday, June 22nd, 2010

Newer modifications provided under the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) are less likely to default due to "better" borrowers entering the program, and adjustments servicers and the Treasury Department are making, according to a report from Barclays Capital.

"These are borrowers who have managed to keep paying through times of severe economic distress and turned delinquent only recently," according to the report. "We believe that these are inherently better quality [borrowers] who have a higher propensity to pay once modified."

The Treasury launched HAMP in March 2009 to provide incentives to servicers for the modification of loans in default. Those servicers have conducted more than 340,000 permanent modifications and started 1.5m three-month trials through May 2010. The Treasury originally estimated that 375,000 mortgages would be permanently modified by the end of 2009, but by December only 66,000 reached this status. The Treasury has yet to update its expectations for 2010, despite the modify rate ratcheting up.

Analysts at the credit rating agency, Moody's estimated that home prices were likely to drop another 8% from Q409 to the end of 2010, citing the "underwhelming" success of HAMP. Analysts at another credit rating agency, Fitch, forecasted that 55-to-75% of modified mortgages would re-default.

But according to BarCap, new modifications are less likely to fall into that range, for many reasons.

The Treasury and the Department of Housing and Urban Development made an adjustment to the program in January 2010, requiring servicers participating in the program to collect all financial documentation from a borrower before moving him or her into the three-month trial. This policy was to start June 1, 2010, but some servicers such as Bank of America (BAC: 7.29 -0.14%) put the policy into place before. This adjustment, according to BarCap has resulted in stronger borrowers entering the program, reducing the chances of re-default.

Newer modifications not only have lower interest rates, but oftentimes also principal discounts, resulting in more "meaningful" reductions in monthly payments, the BarCap report states.

Write to Jon Prior.

Monday, June 21st, 2010

The amount of REO inventory held by lenders is expected to peak in August 2011 at 545,000 properties, according to analysts at Barclays Capital.

In April, REO remained relatively flat, increasing 0.8% from March to 526,000. The influx was primarily due to an increase in REO from the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs), according to BarCap.

Analysts also reported that properties are taking roughly 23 months to move from foreclosure to REO. Servicers are showing signs of caution, not wanting to shock the fragile housing recovery with too much inventory, according to analysts. And foreclosure moratoriums are the first line of defense. Moratoriums announced by the major banks and GSEs are the latest example.

Servicers are also easing on the rate of foreclosure. The inventory of foreclosed homes, not yet in REO, fell to 1.95m in April, a 2.6% decline from 2m. It’s the first drop since 2005.

Analysts said the tide in default servicing has shifted. For the past year, fewer loans moved from current status into delinquency as programs like the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) kept foreclosure numbers from climbing. Now, however, homes are moving from foreclosure into REO at a faster rate as delinquencies have peaked. Because of this, analysts said the foreclosure stock is likely to decline in the months ahead.

Write to Jon Prior.

Monday, June 21st, 2010

A recent commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) conduit transaction backed by a diverse pool of loans from JP Morgan Chase (JPM: 37.21 -0.75%) and Ladder Capital Finance marked not only one of the first CMBS deals since 2008, but perhaps the beginning of credit revival for commercial real estate (CRE), according to Moody's Investors Service.

The $716m JPM CMBS, expected to close next week, signals the possible revival of a key type of securitized commercial mortgage deal, and the expansion of loan leverage, writes Moody's senior analyst Joseph Baksic, in commentary today.

Following the JPM deal, at least one other transaction was in the works. Standard & Poor's (S&P) recently assigned triple-A ratings to senior classes of Impact Funding's multifamily mortgage pass-through certificates, series 2010-1. The agency noted moderate leverage in the transaction, with a 69% loan-to-value ratio among the loans, which are well-seasoned at an average 60 months.

"The capital markets have historically financed a substantial share of commercial real estate debt, but during the financial crisis, the disruption of the CMBS conduit securitization market significantly limited the availability of credit to commercial real estate borrowers," Baksic said. "As the cost of borrowing associated with higher leverage financings has recently become less prohibitive, an increased number of commercial real estate sponsors have been able to obtain higher leverage loans at lower spreads to refinance their maturing loans."

Baksic added: "Concurrent with this improvement in credit conditions, several more CMBS deals similar to the recent conduit transaction are in the pipeline."

The JPM deal, marking the first conduit offering in nearly two years, represents a significant step in jump-starting CMBS issuance. Getting to this stage in restarting CMBS required multiple other steps, according to the Moody's commentary.

Single-loan transactions restarted first, Baksic wrote. Late in 2009, three single-loan, multi-property, low-leverage securitizations debuted. At that time, the cost of borrowing was high enough to be "prohibitive" for most CRE sponsors that needed higher leverage loans at lower spreads to refinance their maturing debt.

"These single-loan offerings attained attractive rates largely because the loans were made on unencumbered properties, allowing for low leverage," Baksic said.

In April 2010, the Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) and Natixis Real Estate Capital issued the first multi-borrower large-loan transaction. The offering included six  loans and low diversity and leverage similar to previously issued single-loan securitizations. This pooling of multiple loans from multiple borrowers was a key step in reviving the CMBS market.

The latest offering by JPM and LCF represents yet another step toward more traditional CMBS conduit offerings, as it securitizes diverse multi-borrower pools of higher-leverage loans.

The deal, JP Morgan Chase Commercial Mortgage Securities Trust 2010-C1, is backed by 36 loans secured by 96 commercial properties with an aggregate principal balance of approximately $716.3m, as HousingWire reported. Moody's noted the increased diversity reduces the exposure to idiosyncratic risk held by senior certificate holders.

The portfolio bears a weighted average loan-to-value of 80.4%, a low leverage ratio under previously accepted conduit standards during the market peak in 2007. The LTV ratio is still higher than the ratios for the three CMBS single-borrower securitizations offered in 2009, Moody's said.

Write to Diana Golobay.

Disclosure: the author holds no relevant investments.



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Servicing/Default
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