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Archive for May, 2010

Tuesday, May 25th, 2010

A group of US House Democrats is strategizing to strip the most contentious derivatives language from legislation to overhaul the financial-regulatory system.

Representative Michael McMahon, a New York Democrat who played a role in shaping the House derivatives language passed last year, said he will work to remove a provision in the Senate legislation that would force commercial banks such as Goldman Sachs Group and JPMorgan Chase to move their swaps- trading operations to subsidiaries.

Tuesday, May 25th, 2010

Like an Apollo moon shot, the pending financial regulatory overhaul is a noble, necessary undertaking.

Yet its success depends on so many intricate, human systems—panels, oversight committees and refashioned bureaucracies—that we should prepare for multiple malfunctions along the way. The new law will hurtle us somewhere, just probably not where Congress intends. That seems especially so for a pending overhaul of the credit-ratings agencies, which famously flubbed their duties during the mortgage boom last decade.

Tuesday, May 25th, 2010

Banks are boosting efforts to sell distressed US home loans, according to two buyers of the debt.

Lenders have sought bids on about $10bn of troubled mortgages in recent months, more than in all of 2008 and 2009, and probably disposed of about $3bn of those, Jon Daurio, chief executive officer of Kondaur Capital Corp., said Monday during a panel discussion at the Mortgage Bankers Association conference in New York.

Tuesday, May 25th, 2010

If [anyone has] been in the market for a mortgage recently, you've no doubt noticed how difficult it can be to get approved.

Paul McFadden, a loan officer with The Legacy Group in Bellevue, Washington, says, "These days, the number of mortgage applications that get approved is probably three out of 10. In the heyday, it was nine out of 10. Normally five or six out of 10 would be the ratio."

Tuesday, May 25th, 2010

Depositors in the United Kingdom (UK) could lose money if their bank fails, under proposals by one of Britain’s most prominent banking chiefs. Peter Sands, chief executive of Standard Chartered, said that people with savings above any sum guaranteed by law — £50,000 [US$71,731] in the UK — should be hit with other providers of capital if a bank fails.

Sands aired the idea yesterday when Northern Rock, which was nationalized in 2008, lifted a guarantee on deposits put in place in September 2007 by Alistair Darling to stop a run on the bank.

Tuesday, May 25th, 2010

The shadow inventory of homes with delinquent mortgages yet to move through the foreclosure process would take 47 months to clear at the current sales rate in the market, according to a newly-published housing finance report from Morgan Stanley (MS: 18.56 +2.26%).

The report which takes a broad overview of the market, shows the trend for originations flattening, as credit availability remains "negative" and the desire of Americans to form households is "neutral".

The inaugural issue of Housing Market Insights is aptly titled: "The Long Road Home" and is generated by the investment bank's securitized credit department. Mixed with the above consumer sentiment and market realities, the analysts also note some hard figures.

Roughly 7.5m first-lien borrowers fell behind on their mortgage as of March 2010, about 15% of the 51m total borrowers. Of the 7.5m, more than 5m made a payment in the last three months, which means more than 10% of all mortgage borrowers are seriously delinquent, according to the report.

While many believe the shadow inventory represents the foreclosed inventory that has yet to reach the market. Since the US government introduced delays in the foreclosure process, such as the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) and the Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternatives (HAFA) program, Morgan Stanley measures the “shadow inventory” as the amount of homes that will need to be liquidated through the REO process.

The shadow inventory includes all loans behind by 90 days or more, already in foreclosure and a vast majority of laons that are 30-to-60 days delinquent. Morgan Stanley even includes a portion of current loans that will eventually default.

Morgan Stanley put the total number of homes in the shadow inventory at 8m at the end of Q110, and at the current sales rate, that would take 47 months to move through.

Morgan Stanley is not the only firm trying to measure the shadow inventory. Barclays Capital reported that it could peak at 4.7m in the summer of 2010. The research firm, Capital Economics, said the shadow inventory could reach 5.5m by the end of 2011.

“Given the sheer number of potential homes for sale and the weak pace at which demand is trending, the bottom of the housing market may last another 3-4 years, during which annual appreciation may reach only as high as inflation or income growth, meaning real asset values will remain unchanged or lower throughout this period,” according to the Morgan Stanley report.

Write to Jon Prior.

Tuesday, May 25th, 2010

The purchase price of homes fell 1.9% in Q110 compared with the previous quarter, and 3.1% compared with the year-ago quarter, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA).

The yearly depreciation slowed by more than half from the 7% decline seen at the same time last year. The monthly index rose 0.3% in March after falling 0.2% in February.

Inflation-adjusted house prices, however, fell 6.3% over last year.

Of the nine Census divisions, the South Atlantic and Middle Atlantic showed the most divergent quarterly price movements, FHFA said. Prices fell 3.1% in the South Atlantic but only 0.3% in the Middle Atlantic.

Purchase-only prices rose in four states and Washington DC in the most recent quarter, and in eight states and Washington DC over the last four quarters:

The FHFA index on all transactions, including purchase and refinance mortgages, fell 1.6% from the previous quarter and 6.8% from last year.

The FHFA house price index is based on mortgages acquired by Fannie Mae (FNM: 0.00 N/A) and Freddie Mac (FRE: 0.00 N/A).

FHFA's quarterly results arrive after a separate index put Q110 national house prices 3.2% below the previous quarter, but 2% above year-ago levels.

Write to Diana Golobay.

Disclosure: the author holds no relevant investments.

Tuesday, May 25th, 2010

Weeks after lots in the stalled Liberty Harbor development were unsuccessfully put up for auction for unpaid property taxes, a bank has filed to foreclose on some lots owned by the developer of the property, Gary Waxman.

Waxman did not immediately return a telephone call Monday, nor has he spoken with Brunswick Mayor Bryan Thompson in some time.

The foreclosures come on the heels of a tax auction at the beginning of the month.

Tuesday, May 25th, 2010

The US thrift banking industry reported $1.82bn in total profits for Q110, while foreclosures among these institutions continue to rise, according to the Office of Thrift Supervision (OTS).

Thrift banks focus on taking deposits and originating home mortgages, with at least 65% of lending dedicated to the latter. These institutions are usually smaller than retail and commercial banks and tend to be community-centric. The OTS regulates 758 institutions.

As of Q110, there were $448bn in total originated mortgages. However, only $22.66bn of this (non-accrual mortgages) was originated in the first quarter, down from $28.3bn a year ago.

The $1.82bn in industry gains in Q110 grew from $442m in Q409 and marks the third-straight profitable quarter. A year ago, the thrift banking industry reported $1.62bn in losses.

But foreclosures among these institutions are on the way back up. The OTS reported more than $12bn worth of foreclosures in Q110, up from $10.8bn at the end of 2009. From Q209 to Q309, the amount of foreclosures did drop from $16.2bn to $15.4bn, but in 2010, the total is climbing again.

To combat the losses, the industry kept the amount of loan loss provisions elevated in Q110, adding $2.71bn in total.

“The substantial additions to loan loss reserves have bolstered the industry’s reserve levels to at, or near, record levels,” according to the OTS.

Despite the rising foreclosure numbers and loan loss provisions, however, more than 97.2% of the industry reported being above the “well-capitalized” regulatory standards.

Write to Jon Prior.

Tuesday, May 25th, 2010

The Conference Board's US Consumer Confidence index rose to a new cycle high of 63.3 in May, from 57.7 (was 57.9) in April, 46.4 in February, and 56.5 in January. Yet despite the climb from the dismal February reading, we are still in recession territory, though we are at least now well above the 47.3 all-time low from before this cycle, seen in February 1992, and the pre-1992 record low of 50.1 in May 1980.



Origination/Lending
Kenneth Bacon, executive vice president of the Fannie Mae multifamily mortgage business, is retiring after 18 years at the mortgage...

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Servicing/Default
The serious delinquency rate for Federal Housing Administration mortgages reached 9.6% in December, the highest level in more than two...

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