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Archive for May, 2010

Thursday, May 20th, 2010

Mortgage rates dropped again this week, setting new records in two weekly surveys, the result of investor flight from European investments.

The Freddie Mac (FRE: 0.00 N/A) weekly survey put the average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) at 4.84% with a 0.7 origination point for the week ending May 20, down from last week’s average of 4.93%. A year ago, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.82%. This week’s rate is the lowest since December 10, 2009, when the average was 4.81%.

The 25-year-old Bankrate.com weekly survey of large banks and thrifts put the average rate for a 30-year FRM at 4.96% with a 0.5 origination point, the lowest in the history of the survey. It’s down from last week’s average of 5.07%. A year ago, the Bankrate.com average was 5.24%.

Despite the end of the Federal Reserve mortgage-backed securities (MBS) purchase program, mortgage rates are at their lowest point all year. As Europe responds to the Greek debt crisis, the euro is plummeting compared to the dollar. Investors are turning to American investments that, for the moment, seem safer. However, some argue that debt levels in the US are also as risky as in Europe.

“People rush to us for 'safety,' although we're Greece — we just haven't gotten there yet,” Anthony Sanders, distinguished professor of real estate finance at George Mason University, told Bankrate.com “Right now we're the port in the storm.”

Sanders added US interest rates will rise once European and Chinese economies recover.

Freddie said the 15-year FRM averaged 4.24% with an average 0.7 point, down from last week’s average of 4.3% and a year ago, when the average was 4.5%. That’s the lowest average rate for the product since Freddie Mac started tracking it in 1991.

Bankrate.com put the 15-year FRM at 4.34% with a 0.5 point, down from last week’s average of 4.45%.

Freddie said the five-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 3.91% with a 0.6 point, down from last week’s average of 3.95% and a year ago, when it averaged 4.79%. It’s also the lowest average rate for the product since Freddie Mac began tracking it in 2005. Bankrate.com put the average rate for a five-year ARM at 4.14% with a 0.5 point, down from last week’s average of 4.27%.

Freddie said the one-year Treasury-indexed ARM averaged 4% with a 0.6 point, down from last week’s average of 4.02% and a year ago, when it averaged 4.82%. It’s the lowest average rate for the product since October 2004, when it averaged 3.96%.

Write to Austin Kilgore.

The author held no relevant investments.

Thursday, May 20th, 2010

The government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) Fannie Mae (FNM: 0.00 N/A) and Freddie Mac (FRE: 0.00 N/A) forced lenders to repurchase $3.1bn of mortgages out of their securities and off their books in Q110, up 64% from nearly $1.9bn one year earlier.

During Q110, lenders repurchased approximately $1.8bn in loans from Fannie, measured by unpaid principal balance, compared with $1.1bn in the year-ago quarter. The repurchases arrived as Fannie posted a Q110 net loss of $11.5bn.

According to a regulatory filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the company expects the amount of outstanding repurchase and reimbursement requests to remain high through 2010.

"We conduct reviews of delinquent loans and, when we discover loans that do not meet our underwriting and eligibility requirements, we make demands for lenders to repurchase these loans or compensate us for losses sustained on the loans, as well as requests for repurchase or compensation for loans for which the mortgage insurer rescinds coverage," Fannie said in the regulatory filing (down here).

Brother GSE Freddie saw $1.3bn of loans repurchased during Q110, up from $789m, according to an SEC filing (download here). In the same quarter, Freddie lost a net $6.7bn.

Freddie noted that some lenders fail to repurchase due to a lack of financial capacity. At the end of the quarter, Freddie had outstanding repurchase requests on loans with unpaid principal balance of $4.8bn, up from $3.8bn in the previous quarter.

About 34% of Freddie's outstanding repurchase requests  were outstanding more than 90 days. Three of Freddie's larger seller/servicers had more than 30% of their repurchase requests outstanding for more than 90 days at the end of the quarter.

"Enforcing repurchase obligations with lender customers who have the financial capacity to perform those obligations could also negatively impact our relationships with such customers and ability to retain market share," Freddie said.

At fellow mortgage finance giant Ginnie Mae, lenders bought back $15.5bn of loans in Q110, up from $4.9bn in the year-ago quarter.

Write to Diana Golobay.

Disclosure: the author holds no relevent investment positions.

Thursday, May 20th, 2010

The Business Loan Connection is a service that links mortgage originators with warehouse credit. Business Loan Connection principal Robert Rubin has been a licensed Michigan Real Estate Broker since 1966 and possesses more than 35 years experience in the real estate finance industry. For this installment of In This Corner, Rubin talks about the importance of aligning originators with appropriate lenders.

How did you get the idea to start The Business Loan Connection?

I started it in November of 2009, but I've been in the mortgage and real estate business since 1964 and in the ensuing years have had my own very successful mortgage banking operation. In 2007, when everything hit the wall, I saw that I couldn't keep the company going.

I used to say trees don't go through the clouds. I just didn't listen to myself. I had opportunities to sell my business, and I didn't because — who would ever have thought, even though I knew from an economic standpoint we're in a free market and what goes up can go down.

I emerged from that using my knowledge in the area I worked so long in, mortgage banking, to establish my current operation, which benefits from the many friends I’ve made who are running mortgage warehouse operations for banks. I am very discerning with the type of client I bring them. When I bring them someone, I've already pre-qualified them. It's important to keep the level of integrity high with my banking connections.

What's changed since 1964 that The Business Loan Connection is necessary?

The thing that changed was the availability and liquidity of credit. Before, everyone, if they could breathe, they'd get a mortgage. This had to come to an end. There were a lot of substandard properties that were going through and that's how the whole bubble burst.

Credit has tightened substantially since then. How can originators overcome the tight credit situation?

I think they have to align themselves with sources of loans that are going to bring in higher quality people. For example, someone who becomes a niche player in jumbo loans and really markets themselves well and phrases everything in terms of looking for those clients who are really solid citizens from a credit standpoint that is a way to enter the market.

I have an old friend from Connecticut who's doing this and the word is out. Now with the doors opening up in terms of securitization, he's going to do very well. So, it's really going into markets where you have a better assurance of getting things through and having people in the field who aren't just looking today, but who are looking at this as a profession.

What standards do you use to measure the success of matching an originator with a lender?

Was I able to get them the line that best fit their needs? Was I able to place them with the best lender for them? Was I able to deliver what they requested- line amount, acceptable rate, ability to grow facility, acceptable haircut? How responsive was the bank to my client and my client to the bank – was there a sense of urgency throughout the process? Was the bank happy with the presentation of the application and the response time of my client? Was everyone on the same page at all times? Did I leave the bank with the sense that they want to do more business through me? Did I meet my clients' expeditions?

Wednesday, May 19th, 2010

Jules Kroll, founder of Kroll (KROL: 0.00 N/A) and current principal of K2 Global Partners, plans to shake up the credit rating agency (CRA) sector, with the launch of Kroll Bond Rating this summer. The man credited with modernizing the intelligence and security sectors will use his analytical and consulting experience to go head to head with Moody’s Investors Service, Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings.

His first target: mortgage-backed securities (MBS), a market segment that’s seen one issuance so far in 2010.

“We need to pick the spots where the incumbents have had the greatest harm to their credibility and that's mortgage-backed securities of a commercial and residential nature,” Kroll said in a televised interview with Fox Business.

Instead of relying on the issuer paid model for running the CRA — a model Kroll said has been “condemned in an outright basis” — a consortium of institutional investors will own 30% to 40% of the company, and before investing in a product, will require a Kroll bond rating. Kroll said the range of potential investors include public pension funds, corporate pension funds, endowments and universities, with each owning a small segment of the company.

Another difference with Kroll’s rating agency is that issuers will have to pay for the rating up front — a move Kroll said will cut down on so-called “rate shopping,” a practice blamed for many unworthy subprime MBS getting unwarranted triple-A ratings.

As for the rating methods Kroll Bond Rating will use, Kroll said the company will rely less on predictive modeling, something he said other CRAs are over-dependent on.

“They would make certain basic assumptions and feed the numbers into the system,” he said. “They did all their work based on what companies and institutions provided them.”

“I've got my own approach, and that is basically due diligence,” he said. “We're going to combine the skills of audit, the skills of diligence, along with the skills of rating and modeling in a much more robust analysis of what's behind companies, structured products and financial institutions and really do the homework that investors need to see done.”

After it breaks into the MBS rating market, Kroll said his firm will start rating other financial products, including municipal bonds, which he called “the next big tsunami that’s going to hit the street.”

Write to Austin Kilgore.

The author held no relevant investments.

Wednesday, May 19th, 2010

FBI investigations of mortgage fraud increased 400% in 2009, compared with five years earlier, according to an Office of Thrift Supervision (OTS) report on fraud and insider abuse (download here).

The FBI investigated more than 2,100 mortgage fraud cases in 2009. The OTS said at least 63% of all pending FBI mortgage fraud investigations during fiscal year 2008 involved dollar losses of more than $1m each.

The OTS attributed the growth in the number of investigations to declining economic conditions, liberal underwriting and declining house values.

"With the rapid growth of markets such as real estate and the development of new technology associated with refinancing and computer-driven underwriting methods, the opportunity for mortgage fraud continues to escalate," the OTS said. "Warehouse lines have been particularly vulnerable, with their 90-day window of 'purchasing' mortgages and awaiting ultimate repayments from final investors."

According to the OTS, equity stripping and property flipping are among the more common fraudulent activities. Additionally, 80% of all mortgage fraud involves collaboration or collusion by industry insiders, according to the report.

Mortgage fraud schemes continue to adapt to a changing economy, including today's housing market where 14% of all mortgages are delinquent or in foreclosure proceedings, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. For example, OTS noted that foreclosure rescue scams usually involve upfront payments in exchange for promises of resolution that are never delivered.

"Ultimately, the scam results in unsuspecting victims losing their homes to foreclosure," the OTS said. "While this type of fraud is not perpetrated directly against the savings association, the end result can have a negative impact on the association."

The OTS noted red flags for a number of fraudulent mortgage schemes, including straw borrower schemes, "builder bailout" schemes and flipping schemes. For example, in a straw borrower scheme, borrowers may purchase properties listed as primary residences but located outside their home state. Or an investment property may be represented as owner-occupied.

In a typical "builder bailout" scenario, OTS said, no-money-down sales may appear or silent second mortgages may be involved. Additionally, the sales price may be upwardly adjusted and the appraisal may be inflated.

In a flipping scheme, the appraisal may be fraudulent and the buyer's income may be inflated. OTS also warned that the property may have been owned by the seller for only a short time, and that the seller may not be listed on the title.

Write to Diana Golobay.

Additional reporting by Jacob Gaffney

Wednesday, May 19th, 2010

Friday's downgrade, by Standard & Poor's, of several triple-A tranches of re-securitized real estate mortgage investment conduits (re-REMICs) brings to mind the early days of the crisis when it became apparent that triple-A paper isn't invincible.

In looking at 12 transactions from 12 US RMBS re-REMIC, S&P lowered the ratings of 308 tranches, mainly triple-A, to junk status, mainly to triple-C.

The primary credit analyst of the report, Cesar Romero, writes that "the downgrades reflect our assessment of the significant deterioration of the loans backing the underlying certificates."

But isn't this a no-brainer? The resecuritization of REMICs into higher-grade paper was a strategy that helped issuers meet lower capital requirements, were they not?

A double or triple-A re-REMIC with a risk weight of 20% requires 1.6 cents for every $1 of investment. Single-A, 4 cents, triple-B, 8 cents and so on. For junk paper an issuer needs $1 for every $1 invested.

During the booming issuance last year, Amherst Securities warned against investing without due diligence, calling the ratings inconsistent. And, after all, if two ratings didn't work for MBS, why would one only work for re-REMICs?

So wouldn't any investor going after this type of investment be a high-risk player to begin with?

According to Deloitte partner Marty Rosenblatt, who authored a report on the Re-REMIC "phenomenon," in studying two 10-Q Q309 reports from banks that used Re-REMICs in order to help clean up their balance sheets it is noted that "the aggregate cash flows and their timing have not really changed" as a result.

One bank sponsored its Re-REMIC and sold none, the other arranged 14 and sold two, recording a loss of $40.6m at the time of the sale, Rosenblatt found.

So the bank recorded a loss with the sale? Interesting.

I'm not suggesting that a credit rating of triple-A on a previously terrible MBS does not sweeten the deal, but let's be honest with ourselves. For the most part, the CRAs themselves largely steer clear of Re-REMICs.

Of the downgrade Friday by S&P, Moody's Investors Service rated only two, DBRS didn't rate any, and Fitch Ratings stopped rating similar Re-REMICs long ago.

By way of comparison, the Moody's Deutsche Mortgage Securities, Re-REMIC Trust Certificates, Series 2007-RS6, rated triple-A (cut to triple-C by S&P) was downgraded to single-B in June of 2009 and in January 2010 put on watch for possible further downgrade.

The other, Residential Mortgage Securities Funding 2008-7, Ltd. Pass through certificates, originally triple-A, was downgraded to Caa1 in June of 2009 and in January 2010 put on watch for possible further downgrade.

In all, Moody’s only rated about 15 RMBS resecuritizations in 2009, in a market of more than 120. "The senior pieces of those deals that we rated remain at triple-A to date," a Moody's spokesman tells me.

So, even the CRAs keep these deals at arms length. Late last year, Fitch reported that it would no longer provide ratings on any Alt-A related re-REMICs.

And DBRS spokesperson Quincy Tang said DBRS continues to rate RMBS re-REMICs, "although on a limited basis compared to our peers."

"We have taken some rating actions on the 2007-2008 vintage re-REMICs in August of last year, and are currently viewing the 2009 vintage re-REMICs," Tang adds.

But despite the clear warnings, re-REMICs have been and will be sold. From an accounting perspective selling at least 10% of a re-REMIC is favorable as less means proceeds must be recorded as collateralized borrowing on balance sheet.

But let's not assume that the whole thing is some conspiracy to double-dupe the so-called hapless investors who careless stumble into this space.

Can't we give ourselves more credit than that?

Jacob Gaffney is the editor of HousingWire and HousingWire.com.

Write to him.

Wednesday, May 19th, 2010

Home sales in the Portland metro area jumped 49.1% in April from a year ago as the first-time homebuyer tax credit drew to a close, according to the Regional Multiple Listing Service (RMLS) in Portland.

The deadline for buyers to sign contracts and qualify for the $8,000 credit for first-time purchasers and $6,500 for existing homeowners expired April 30. But the real estate industry is still unsure what the end of the tax credit will mean. When it expired, some noticed a drop-off in buyer interest, some like Eugene Petrusha, an REO broker with America’s Best Realty in Portland.

“In April, we were getting 60 phone calls a day,” Petrusha said. “This month it’s closer to 25.”

He said most of the sales are bank-owned as everything else is overpriced. The median sales price, according to the RMLS, did drop in April by 3.1% to $282,100 from a year ago. But the time these homes spend on the market is dropping, too, down to 127 days in April from 138 days a year ago.

Oregon has the 13th highest foreclosure rate in the country for April, according to RealtyTrac. There, one in every 427 homes received a foreclosure filing, a level that’s held stead since last year. It declined 0.63% from April 2009 and 6.8% from the previous month.

Write to Jon Prior.

Wednesday, May 19th, 2010

As miracle cures go, clearinghouses for derivatives seem to be everyone's favorite. By requiring that most swap contracts be settled daily through institutions that collect and spread financial risk, Congress and Treasury claim that we can all sleep better at night without fear of more AIGs.

Sorry to break this reverie, but if this is true, why does Senator Chris Dodd's financial bill give clearinghouses access to the Federal Reserve's discount window? That's the special Fed lending facility that is typically available only to banks that can't get the funding they need elsewhere. Does the Senator know something most Americans do not?

Wednesday, May 19th, 2010

Federal Reserve policy makers last month said they were in no rush to sell $1.1trn of mortgage-backed securities, with a majority preferring to wait until after the central bank starts raising interest rates.

“Most participants favored deferring asset sales for some time,” while others wanted to announce a schedule or start sales soon, the Fed said in minutes of its April 27-28 meeting in Washington, released today. Officials lowered their projections for inflation, excluding food and fuel, while keeping forecasts little changed for economic growth and unemployment in 2011 and 2012.

Wednesday, May 19th, 2010

As The New York Times conducted reporting for an article examining how Goldman Sachs handles conflicts with its clients, the newspaper submitted a list of questions to Goldman on May 13-14, along with a follow-up on May 18. The inquiries dealt with Goldman’s philosophy and practices in serving its clients’ interests. Consider the questions and the responses received from Lucas van Praag, a Goldman spokesman.



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