RSS Twitter

Archive for April, 2010

Tuesday, April 20th, 2010

The US-based Risk Management Association (RMA), a trade group that pushes sound practices in financials, said that recent proposed rules from the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision — that are designed to strengthen banks ability to operate smoothly — may in fact have the opposite effect once in practice. Furthermore, defining the wording around mortgage servicing rights practices under the new requirements remains unclear.

The RMA is a member-driven organization, with a board comprised mainly of bankers and risk managers from medium to large financial institutions. The Capital Working Group consists of senior staff at major banking companies responsible for risk measurement and management, including the management of bank capital positions.

The Basel committee serves under the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), an international organization with basically the same wants as the RMA. Currently, the BIS committee is pushing for the implementation of Basel 2 standards by 2012. The Basel 2 standards are recommendations on banking practices with an eye on risk management.

The RMA's main concerns surrounds new leverage ratio requirements set forth by the BIS, as well as the shifting status of mortgage servicing rights on the balance sheet.

The proposal to adopt a 1,250% risk weight for certain positions that previously have been deducted 50/50 from Tier 1 and Tier 2 capital, results in effective capital allocations that are all out of proportion to risk, said the RMA in a letter in its role as advisor to the BIS.

"These effective capital requirements are complicated by supervisory requirements in the US that lead to effective capital ratio requirements above the Basel II minimums," said the letter, written by Suzanne Wharton, an associate director of risk management and the RMA attorney, Edward DeMarco.

Further, the letter does not specifically name current legislation in Congress, namely H.R. 4173 which would establish a Systemic Risk Council, though this is considered a sticking point by bankers as adhering to the Congressional Council would likely be mandatory and Basel 2 adaptation is optional. The US regulation would require 15-to-1 cap on leverage ratios for these companies.

"When the 1,250% risk weight is used, instead of the 50/50 deduction, the resulting supervisory requirements can easily result in a total capital requirement above 100% and, sometimes, a Tier 1 capital requirement above 100%," the RMA said in the letter to the BIS.

Under Basel II modifications, mortgage-servicing rights are defined as "certain intangibles." Being classified as intangible describes a status akin to difficult to value with certainty, and therefore cannot provide liquidity in a downturn, explains the larger complaint sent to the BIS.

"In the case of Mortgage Servicing Rights (MSRs), however, the term 'intangible' is inappropriately applied. MSRs are a written, tangible, legal contract like any other financial asset," says the letter.

"MSRs have an ongoing market for their value, and firms can sell MSRs and their associated servicing facilities and staff, both in a going concern situation as well as in conservatorship or receivership. For these reasons, we believe that MSRs should not be deducted from regulatory capital."

Write to Jacob Gaffney.

The author holds no relevant investments.

Tuesday, April 20th, 2010

Driven to bankruptcy by massive downgrades of its failed subprime mortgage-related assets, now-defunct Lehman Brothers presents several lessons for lawmakers writing the policy response to ongoing financial fallout, expert witnesses told the House Financial Services Committee today.

Sen. Ed Perlmutter (D-Colo.) cited a recent report on the causes of the Lehman bankruptcy, which found regulators supposedly knew of accounting gimmicks that allowed the firm the liquidity freedom to take on increasingly risky investments, but did not enforce corrective action. The regulator quickly named in the failure to prevent risk-taking at Lehman was the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

"Each agency was making mistakes, and I think SEC was at the heart of it," Perlmutter told the Committee.

The SEC faced harsh criticism from Committee members, as well.

Saying the SEC did not enforce its existing regulatory authority and "failed to do their job in the first place" when Lehman was still collapsing, Rep. Spencer Bachus (R-Ala.), criticized it and other regulators that call for increased authority in the financial reform bills passed in the House and heading to the Senate floor this week.

Perlmutter said, however, that provisions of the reform bill would create an "oversight council" where the SEC and other regulatory agencies would be "forced" to discuss financial institutions and developing systemic risks.

SEC chairman Mary Schapiro, appearing in another panel before the Committee, said that capital adequacy rules under the Basel framework were flawed and assumptions regarding liquidity risk proved overly optimistic in the case of Lehman.

US Treasury Department secretary Timothy Geithner indicated the regulatory environtment bred increasingly risk-laden business practices at Lehman, including the firm's reliance on the "repo" market. Repos are loans collateralized by assets on dealers' balance sheets, which financial institutions use to finance securities inventories, typically on an overnight basis.

"Financing long-term, risky assets with short-term debt was a reliable formula for rapid growth and robust earnings during the boom," Geithner said in prepaerd remarks (download here). "But these activities were vulnerable to fragility and rapid deleveraging when conditions deteriorated, as they inevitably did."

Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke told the Committee the Lehman failure presents two key lessons in forming policy decisions. First, he said, lawmakers should eliminate gaps in the financial framework that allow the formation of large, complex and interconnected firms.

"Second, to avoid having to choose in the future between bailing out a failing, systemically critical firm or allowing its disorderly bankruptcy, we need a new resolution regime, analogous to that already established for failing banks," Bernanke said in prepared remarks (download here). "Such a regime would both protect our economy and improve market discipline by ensuring that the failing firm’s shareholders and creditors take losses and its management is replaced."

Write to Diana Golobay.

Tuesday, April 20th, 2010

The national real estate market is in better shape than analysts anticipated given the largest employment declines in more than 70 years, but regional markets with the highest job losses, and the related overabundance of commercial properties vacant as businesses fail, will take longer to dig out of the recession, according to a report from Cushman & Wakefield (C&W).

C&W, a real estate advising firm, said in its Economic Pulse report, that the recession did not hit all real estate markets equally. For instance, vacancy rates in Miami, one of the cities with largest job loss in the country, increased from 11.1% to 19.6% from the December 2007 national vacancy trough. Another unemployment heavy market, Phoenix, saw its vacancy rate increase from 14.6% to 23.4%.

According to the US Department of Labor, Arizona has the 19th highest unemployment rate in the country at 9.6% in March, and Florida has the fifth highest rate at 12.3%.

C&W reported these empty buildings will begin to fill eventually, but it will only be a modest recovery at first as businesses backfill existing space before increasing occupancy.

“Nevertheless as employment rises, space will be absorbed off the market and vacancy rates will begin to decline. Those cities that experienced moderate employment declines have the best potential for growth,” according to the report.

Employment isn’t the only factor though. The new supply of office space built before the current struggles in the commercial sector could also quell a speedy recovery, but according to C&W, construction did not surge at that time. Nationally, new completions of commercial real estate in 2009 represented only 1.3% of total inventory, compared to 3.2% in 2001.

However, areas like Seattle are completing enough construction to increase its inventory by 10%, boosting its vacancy rate from 12.6% last year to 21.4% today.

C&W did say on a national level, vacancy rates are below the last peak in 2003 and well below the level in of the early 1990s, suggesting a better emergence form the current recession than in those past.

Write to Jon Prior.

Tuesday, April 20th, 2010

Real estate investment trusts (REITs) could serve as the vehicle for a new wave of public-private partnerships to boost infrastructure maintenance and development across the United States, according to report (download here) by analysts at Deloitte.

Such projects can range from toll roads and rail transportation to hospitals and prisons. In addition, recent Internal Revenue Service (IRS) regulations now allow REITs to invest in electric and gas distribution systems, providing yet another avenue for REIT investment.

So-called infrastructure REITs could fill the gap between the financial demands for infrastructure updates and the limited funds available through the public tax coffers, Deloitte said.

“Increased access to private capital through public-private partnerships would be a welcome complement to traditional infrastructure financing using tax-exempt bonds, and advantages of using a REIT structure over the traditionally-used fund model may be the right incentive to generate interest, “ said Lou Weller, a principal at Deloitte Tax.

Investment sources tell HousingWire that investment strategies may shift away from municipal bonds, as the typical returns aren’t as high for municipal bonds as returns attained by REITs. In addition, there is increasing concern that municipal bonds aren’t as safe as they once were considered, as depressed property values and decreased consumer spending is resulting in lower tax collections, putting municipal governments as risk for default, according to the investor.

However, the report said the pros outweigh the cons as REIT funding for public-private partnership projects are more liquid, provide for incremental scalability, easier access to capital markets and enjoy tax benefits.

But critics argue the proliferation of such projects may result in higher costs for taxpayers and decreased accountability. In addition, critics argue once these projects get underway, firmly entrenched in the private sector, it’s difficult to bring them back into the public fold.

“Because private-public partnerships are, first and foremost, commercial relationships, they are fundamentally changing the values and processes of democratic governments,” the Canadian Union of Public Employees (CUPE) said in a 2005 position paper. “Public-private partnerships are undermining democratic public institutions because the commercial relationships are inherently secretive, unaccountable and often very risky.”

Deloitte also said there are downsides to using REITs in such arrangements. Most investments generate significant tax losses in the first 10 to 15 years of operation and these losses would not pass through to REIT shareholders as they would to partners in a traditional P3 arrangement.

Also, Deloitte said if significant distributions to investors come from refinancing project assets, these would be taxable to REIT shareholders, even where there are no earnings and profits. In other public-private partnerships deals, the partners in a partnership would not face this treatment due to the ability to increase “outside basis” by allocating shares of debt from a partnership to its partners.

Deloitte said there are other issues, including how REIT tax rules would impact the ability for infrastructure REITs to produce revenue. Under current law, no less than 75% of a REIT’s gross income must come from real estate rents. But it may be difficult for public-private partnerships involving toll roads, bridges, parking facilities, or transportation hubs like airports, seaports, or rail yards to qualify revenues as “rents from real property” under applicable tests, Deloitte said.

Despite the limitations, Deloitte said some are looking for ways to use REITs in public-private partnerships transactions. Proposals include a legislative fix to create REIT-like Infrastructure Investment Trust (IIT) or a system allowing infrastructure assets to be owned or leased by a Taxable REIT Subsidiary (TRS).

“If the use of public-private partnerships to fund, rehabilitate, or develop infrastructure continues to proliferate in the United States, the role of REITs will likely be examined more closely,” Deloitte said in its report. “REITs represent a well-understood vehicle to access capital markets and allow the public to participate in owning qualifying infrastructure assets, aspects which may be attractive to both the public and private sector.”

Write to Austin Kilgore.

Additional reporting by Jacob Gaffney

Tuesday, April 20th, 2010

Selling technology is a tough business, as I pointed out in my most recent column for the print edition of HousingWire. It is difficult and expensive to develop good tools, can be very difficult to educate a market to the point of purchase and then requires additional work to ensure adoption. Overall, it’s very hard to effectively market new technologies, especially when you’re up against competent competitors. Lawsuits, in contrast, are relatively simple to initiate.

Lawyers who work in the consumer electronics space can attest to this. For many years, companies working here have spent about as much time in front of judges as they have in front of consumers. Palm is a case in point.

Palm didn’t bring the first digital assistant to market, but the company did bring a competent team of marketers to bear and quickly began to gain market share. Part of what made the product cool was a handwriting recognition technology it bought from 3Com. Unfortunately for Palm, 3Com bought the technology from U.S. Robotics who, a federal judge later upheld, infringed on a technology originally developed by Xerox. Ouch.

Meanwhile, NCR, a provider of office technology since our granddads were young lads, had a strong client base and not all that much need of marketing. That is until Palm starting tearing into its market. In 2001 NCR filed suit against Palm, alleging that the company infringed on patents it won ten years earlier. A year and a half later, a federal court judge ruled that NCR’s case was unfounded, but the damage was done. Reeling from multiple lawsuits, the company never caught up.

The handheld organizer market has since morphed into the smart phone market and things have really heated up.

Recently, Apple, AT&T, LG Electronics, Motorola, Research In Motion (RIM), Samsung, and Sanyo have all been named in a lawsuit for infringing on patents from a company called Smartphone Technologies. It got some coverage in the press, but not much because over the past year or so, Apple has sued HTC, Kodak sued Sony Ericsson and Samsung, Nokia sued Samsung, LG Group, Toshiba and Hitachi, and RIM sued Sharp and Motorola. And that’s just a sampling of the court’s business in that space. Keeping up with who has sued whom has become a veritable cottage industry.

All of these companies share something in common. They all offer technologies that are very difficult for the average consumer to differentiate between. A plasma TV is an LCD TV is a high-def TV, isn’t it? Of course not. But it’s a whole lot easier to get a judge to give you a win than it is to get a couple million consumers to agree on your brand.

Look at AT&T and Verizon. Despite the fact that the former knew for a fact that its 3G network was not as extensive as that of Verizon, it filed suit to force the company to quit making map comparisons in its national television advertising. When a judge rejected AT&T’s request to force Verizon to stop the ads, AT&T dismissed its lawsuit.

Recently, AT&T has pulled out all the stops in the 3G network upgrade process when it looked like Apple would allow Verizon to have a shot at its iPhone handset. Ah, how much easier it would have been for the company to just have its day in court, get a judge to shut down the competitor and worry about making a better product later.

Companies in our space are also subject to court room shenanigans. One of the realities of the modern mortgage business is that you can’t do anything without adequate technology. If you want a competitive edge, you want to get the best technology. Eventually, it will become clear to market participants that there are only a handful of technology solutions that actually provide superior efficiencies and it will get tough to tell them apart.

Those are the guys you can usually count on ending up in court because it’s really, really hard to get buyers to see the difference in products, at least compared to filing legal paperwork.

Last Friday, First American CoreLogic took its case to court, filing a suit against a host of industry players that it claims have been infringing upon one of its property valuation technologies. The company made the move one week ahead of one of the industry’s most important technology conferences.

Generally, plaintiffs hope to settle out of court and gain concessions from their competitors, which could include the cessation of more effective advertising campaigns or even cash payments for licensing technology.

While going to court is a valid strategy when used by a company that has a vested interest in protecting its intellectual property, too often it’s more akin to a playground bully, pushing around smaller companies in order to gain an unfair advantage.

Larger players sometimes use this strategy to bleed off their competitor’s cash or stop their marketing, even though they know they will probably eventually lose and may have to reimburse court costs. It appears that AT&T was pursuing this strategy and would have won big if it could have blown a hole in Verizon’s successful marketing campaign.

Is First American hoping to put a damper on some marketing messages at MBA Tech? I’m not sure yet, as the company just filed its suit last Friday. I’ll be watching it with great interest.

Tuesday, April 20th, 2010

The recovery of the global financial system remains delicate as institutions around the world still have work to do repairing ailing balance sheets, according to a new report from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

An organization of 186 countries forms the IMF, which works to foster global financial cooperation and stability. In its Global Financial Stability Report, the IMF warned that with markets less willing to support leverage, whether on bank or sovereign balance sheets, and still liquidity reserves remain dry, new stability risks threaten the global market.

Sovereign risks in highly indebted countries like Greece are spilling over into recovering banking systems, which could undermine financial stability.

The uncertain stability reduced expected writedowns in banks from $2.8trn to $2.3trn in Q110, according to IMF. Some bank capital positions even improved substantially. However, there are some segments of country banking systems that remain poorly capitalized and could still face major risks.

“The credit recovery will be slow, shallow, and uneven as banks continue to repair balance sheets,” according to the IMF report. “Notwithstanding the weak recovery in private credit demand, ballooning sovereign needs may bump up against limited credit supply.”

Suki Mann, a credit analyst for French investment bank Société Générale is somewhat more confident in a recovery, arguing that recent events in Greece and Iceland are minimally impacting the global credit markets. "The earnings season is stepping up a gear and we believe it will offer an upbeat assessment of the corporate sector; the economic data should continue to point to recovery, notwithstanding the side effects of the volcanic eruption; and, credit spreads will continue to go tighter," he said.

Looking ahead, the IMF said policymakers need to take further action to continue reducing systemic risks. It called for governments to design credible plans to consolidate and resolve weakened institutions such as the famed destructions of Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers if the market is to support credit and avoid similar crises in the future.

Write to Jon Prior.

Tuesday, April 20th, 2010

The Financial Services Authority (FSA), the market watchdog in the UK, will begin a formal enforcement investigation into Goldman Sachs (GS: 111.77 +2.96%) in the wake of the recent action by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Last week, the SEC charged Goldman for allegedly defrauding investors in a financial product tied to subprime mortgages. The SEC alleges Goldman and Fabrice Tourre, a vice president in the firm, misled and even omitted key facts about a synthetic collateralized debt obligation (CDO), ABACUS 2007-AC1.

Over the weekend, UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown called for the FSA to look into the matter.

“I want a special investigation done into the entanglement of Goldman Sachs and the companies there with other banks and what happened,” Brown said on BBC television Sunday. “There are hundreds of millions of pounds have been traded here and it looks as if people were misled about what happened. I want the Financial Services Authority (FSA) to investigate it immediately.”

The FSA stated today it would be liaising closely with the SEC in this review.

A spokesperson for the German government told a newspaper there that it too would seek information from the SEC before it takes its own legal steps.

As the civil cases mount from around the world, private companies could betaking action as well. The Wall Street Journal reported American International Group (AIG: 25.25 +0.44%) is considering potential claims against Goldman and other banks for its heavy losses on deteriorating mortgage assets. A spokesperson for AIG said the firm is not commenting on the report.

Amid the litigation, Goldman gained early in 2010. The investment bank reported a $3.46bn net income for Q110.

Write to Jon Prior.

Tuesday, April 20th, 2010

The watchdog of the federal bailout efforts criticized the US Treasury Department's recent revisions to the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP), saying the changes could slow the effectiveness of a program that has shown "very little progress" so far.

The Special Inspector General Troubled Asset Relief Program (SIGTARP) took Treasury to task in its latest quarterly report to Congress (download here), which studies the continued financial unraveling in the US mortgage market.

While foreclosures and bank repossessions rose in Q110 above year-ago levels — 16% and 35%, respectively — HAMP results in "very little progress" so far, SIGTARP said, with only 230,000 permanent modifications completed over 12 months of operation (illustrated below). This represents only 8.2% of the foreclosures initiated in 2009, and fewer than only the most recent quarter's bank repossessions.

SIGTARP previously criticized Treasury for its "disappointing" rate of permanent modifications. In a March report, the watchdog said significant risks of re-default remain among even the permanent modifications, and the Treasury’s management and expectations of the program lack transparency.

Just days after the March report, Treasury launched major revisions to HAMP, including new provisions to address unemployed homeowners, and to require consideration of principal write-downs for underwater borrowers.

SIGTARP said these changes appear designed to expand HAMP participation and improve the permanent modification rate and re-default risk.

"However, the program changes, as announced, also raise several issues that could impede HAMP’s effectiveness and efficiency," SIGTARP said. "Treasury’s urgency in rolling out the new initiatives, laudable as it is, risks significant costs in the form of ill-defined goals, incomplete program guidelines, increased vulnerability to fraud, incentives that may prove ineffective, and the potential for arbitrary treatment of participating borrowers."

SIGTARP recommended Treasury identify participation goals and expected costs for each HAMP program and subprogram, as well as launch a fraud awareness campaign and include warnings with each new program announcement. The watchdog also urged Treasury to adopt the Federal Housing Authority's appraisal standard for all principal reduction and short sale programs.

SIGTARP said the Treasury should reevaluate the voluntary nature of its principal reduction program, to both ensure the greatest extent of the program as possible and prevent servicer conflicts of interest. It also recommended the Treasury reconsider the length of three-month minimum term of its unemployment forbearance program.

"Questions remain as to whether the real estate markets have truly found bottom or are headed for further decline," SIGTARP said. "In sum, notwithstanding that the financial system appears to be stabilizing and record profits are returning to Wall Street, the plain fact is that too many Americans on Main Street are still in imminent danger of losing their businesses, their jobs, and their homes."

Unemployment — which remains a significant factor in a borrower's ability to make mortgage payments and apply for HAMP modification — is becoming more and more permanent. SIGTARP noted the duration of unemployment remains at a record high. At the same time, smaller and regional banks are suffering — with 50 having closed so far in 2010 — meaning the supply of credit continues to contract.

Bailout efforts through the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) — which funds $50bn of the $75bn HAMP program — remain costly. SIGTARP said that, despite $205.9bn of reapaid TARP funds, the program is still expected to cost taxpayers $127bn. These costs are concentrated in programs supporting American International Group (AIG: 25.25 +0.44%) ($50bn), US housing ($49bn), and the automotive industry ($31bn).

Write to Diana Golobay.

Disclosure: the author holds no relevant investments.

Tuesday, April 20th, 2010

Lloyds Banking Group has delayed meeting investors on a planned residential mortgage-backed bond sale because of air travel disruptions, one of the banks managing the sale said on Monday.

Plans for the bond deal were announced last Thursday, but investor meetings could not take place because of transport disruptions caused by the volcano eruption in Iceland, which has grounded flights for the past five days.

The meetings will be rescheduled when there is clarity over travel arrangements, one of the managing banks said.

A Lloyds’ spokeswoman confirmed the postponement of the meetings, but declined to comment further.

Tuesday, April 20th, 2010

The Goldman Sachs Group (GS: 111.77 +2.96%) posted a $3.46bn net income for Q110 on growth in its fixed income business.

The firm's fixed income, currency and commodities division generated $7.39bn of quarterly net revenues — a 13% growth from the previous quarter — reflecting strong mortgage performance.

Mortgages included a loss of $800m, excluding hedges, on commercial mortgages and related securities.

Asset management and securities services added $1.34bn of net revenue for the firm, 8% lower than the year-ago quarter. While net revenues in asset management were essentially unchanged from the year-ago quarter, securities services net revenues fell 21% from last year. Goldman attributed the decline to tighter securities lending spreads.

Goldman's annualized return on average common shareholders' equity was 20.1% for the quarter.

“While we are encouraged by growth prospects for the economy, we continue to put a premium on strong capital and liquidity levels, and disciplined risk management," said CEO Lloyd Blankfein, in the quarterly report (download here). "In light of recent events involving the firm, we appreciate the support of our clients and shareholders, and the dedication and commitment of our people.”

The positive results arrive after the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Friday charged Goldman and one of its vice presidents for allegedly defrauding investors by misstating and omitting key facts about a financial product tied to subprime mortgages.

Goldman reported $881bn of total assets as of March 31, 2010, up 4% from year-end 2009. Total capital at the end of Q110 was $253.35bn.

Write to Diana Golobay.

Disclosure: the author holds no relative investments.



Origination/Lending
Kenneth Bacon, executive vice president of the Fannie Mae multifamily mortgage business, is retiring after 18 years at the mortgage...

Read More »

Servicing/Default
The serious delinquency rate for Federal Housing Administration mortgages reached 9.6% in December, the highest level in more than two...

Read More »