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Archive for February, 2010

Tuesday, February 23rd, 2010

Jonathan Griffin, Michael Pawlak and Chris Iuso all are chasing bargains on foreclosed homes here.

It should be easy. Las Vegas is one of the foreclosure capitals of the U.S., with about one in four households behind on house payments or in mortgage foreclosure. Yet all three of these shoppers—a professional real-estate investor, a county official with federal funds designated for stabilizing neighborhoods and an installer of security systems who needs a new place to live—are frustrated.

"I thought it would be a heck of a lot easier," said Mr. Iuso, a renter who wants to buy a home but has been outbid eight times, usually by investors able to pay cash.

Bargain hunters here and in many other metropolitan areas are up against a paradox. By far the biggest wave of foreclosures since the Great Depression was expected to be a bonanza for anyone with cash or the ability to get a loan.

But prospective home buyers say it is increasingly difficult to find foreclosed homes at attractive prices in desirable neighborhoods.

Tuesday, February 23rd, 2010

It snowed this month in much of the United States. And that may create unnecessary fears that a double-dip recession is upon us.

Why?

The Labor Department employment report to be released on March 5 will say that it is for February, but the fine print will say it is for a particular week. Both the household survey (which produces the unemployment rate) and the employer survey (which produces the job count) ask about workers in the week during which the 12th of the month fell.

For February, that was the week of the 7th to the 13th. There were blizzards on the East Coast the previous weekend, and again during the week.

Tuesday, February 23rd, 2010

Later this week, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will present his semi-annual report on monetary policy to the Congress. In it he will probably go to great lengths to reassure policymakers that the Fed intends to keep flooding the economy with liquidity for a while longer.

But instead of keeping the pedal to the metal, Bernanke should be talking about hitting the brakes.

Even though unemployment is high and business has lots of spare capacity, inflation has returned — although you wouldn't know it from a glance at the behavior of the consumer price index.

However, if you examine the CPI more closely, you will see a different picture altogether. Among other things, this means looking at the top-line number, which includes food and energy.

Tuesday, February 23rd, 2010

Home improvement retailer Home Depot (HD: 44.87 -0.18%) reported a profit of $342m, or $0.20 per share, for its fiscal year fourth quarter ending January 31.

That’s an improvement from last year’s fiscal fourth quarter, when Home Depot lost $54m, or $0.03 per share. But it's lower than Home Depot’s Q309 net earnings of $689m, or $0.41 per share. Home Depot said its sales performance was driven by gains in kitchen and bath, paint, flooring and plumbing as well as its international businesses.

For the year, Home Depot reported net earnings of $2.66bn, up 17.7% from $2.26bn a year ago.

Q409 sales were $14.57bn, down 0.3% from Q408, and comparable store sales for US stores were negative 1.1%. However, total company comparable store sales for the fourth quarter grew 1.2%, the Atlanta-based chain said.

Results were impacted by a $163m pre-tax write-down of Home Depot’s investment in HD Supply, a wholesale distributor in the US and Canada.

“Despite the tough economic environment, we were able to make solid progress against our key initiatives in 2009,” said chairman and CEO Frank Blake. “For the year, we grew US share by more than 100 basis points.”

In 2010, Home Depot will open six new stores and projects store sales growth of 2.5% and earnings per share from continuing operations to grow by 15.5% to $1.79.

Write to Austin Kilgore.

The author held no relevant investments.

Monday, February 22nd, 2010

Miami is now home to Fannie Mae’s (FNM: 0.00 N/A) first regional help center for distressed borrowers with mortgages the government-sponsored enterprise (GSE) owns.

The center, the first of a number of planned centers to open nationwide, has housing advisors to meet with borrowers face-to-face to discuss and execute loss mitigation strategies in an attempt to avoid foreclosure. Fannie Mae is working with civic and community leaders from Miami-Dade County, Neighborhood Housing Services of South Florida and major mortgage servicers to establish and run the center. The center is only for borrowers with a mortgage held by Fannie Mae and by appointment only. The center’s staff can review borrowers’ loans as well as help with preparing a Making Home Affordable workout plan application.

“The center in Miami and our future centers across the country will build on Fannie Mae's long-standing community development network and strong partnerships with local governments nationwide,” said Fannie Mae executive vice president Terry Edwards. “We are committed to helping struggling borrowers understand all of the options available to them to avoid foreclosure and to provide them with the assistance they need in the most streamlined manner possible.”

Officials hope the center will provide options for borrowers and deter local scams and groups that charge fees for modifications and foreclosure prevention services.

“Many homeowners don't realize what their options are before or during the foreclosure process. There are ways to keep your home, and my thanks go to Fannie Mae for assisting families in understanding their mortgage situations are not hopeless,” said Miami-Dade County commissioner Dorrin Rolle.

Write to Austin Kilgore.

Monday, February 22nd, 2010

New safe harbor rules for securitizations proposed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC) will create uncertainty among investors and hamper the reopening of the private-label securitization market as the federal government becomes set to withdraw for the market, according to industry trade bodies the American Securitization Forum (ASF) and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).

A trade association for the securitization industry, ASF penned a letter (download here) to the FDIC voicing this concern.

Late last year, the FDIC approved an advanced notice of proposed rule-making regarding safe harbor protection of failed institutions’ assets being transferred for securitization.

The FDIC's proposed rule revises a safe harbor on securitized assets of failed banks that the ASF said was originally meant to give investors peace of mind that the FDIC would not seize assets being transferred for securitization. Under the proposed new rule, the safe harbor would be amended to include numerous preconditions regarding a transaction's capital structure, disclosure, documentation, origination and compensation.

“The sample regulatory text for conditions to a FDIC safe harbor would, I believe, go far towards correcting the weaknesses in securitization that contributed to the crisis and is very consistent with the direction of legislation in the House and Senate,” said FDIC chairman Sheila Bair in December.

The ASF is asking the FDIC to not include all of the proposed requirements as a condition for safe harbor eligibility, and instead adopt "clear, bright-line conditions that allow investors to rely upon the safe harbor without fear that its benefits could disappear."

"Under the FDIC’s proposals, investors will bear the burden of the loss of the safe harbor if any of the securitization preconditions are not satisfied by the sponsor." said Ralph Daloisio, chairman of the ASF Board of Directors, and a managing director at investment bank Natixis, in a statement. "As an investor, it is imperative that I be able to determine whether the safe harbor will apply so that risks can be appropriately assessed and a transaction can be efficiently priced."

But the effect of the proposed safe harbor would not be limited to investors, the ASF said. The proposals could bring fundamental change to the economics of securitization for sponsors. ASF said the burden could even lead to the elimination of securitization in some sectors and prevent insured depository institutions from re-engaging in the securitization market.

The MBA also penned a letter to the FDIC requesting a withdrawal of the proposed rule, saying it "threatens any semblance of certainty that was beginning to emerge in this important market." This certainty is essential to investors and lenders to make sound investment decisions.

"As a result, financial institutions will be forced to add an uncertainty cost to their asset-backed transactions to offset the possibility their transactions may fall outside the boundaries of the FDIC’s receivership safe harbor," MBA said in its letter. "The specter of a delay in receiving cash flows from an FDIC receiver or conservator also will undoubtedly cause rating agency ratings to be heavily influenced by the financial strength of the servicer or master servicer of loans that underlie the private-label MBS."

The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA) also penned a letter, stating its  newly-formed Securitization Group (SSG) does not believe the proposed safe harbor is the appropriate means to regulate the securitization market.

SIFMA called the unilateral imposition of broad-based conditions on insured depository institutions by the FDIC "premature." It poses an undue burden on insured depository institutions and would front-run the large-scale, coordinated financial regulatory reform initiative currently being undertaken by Congress and other relevant regulators. SIFMA also urged that an insolvency safe harbor should be based on insolvency principles and should not impose requirements unrelated to insolvency.

“Securitization is a key component to ensuring credit availability to consumers and businesses, and therefore plays a critically important role in the economic recovery," said SIFMA vice president Chris Killian. "Changes to regulation of the securitization market must be done in a coordinated manner which incorporates the views of various market participants, regulators and policymakers, and is mindful of the impact of the sum total of the changes on the ability of institutions to utilize securitization to fund credit creation.”

In the near term, the Commercial Mortgage Securities Association (CMSA) urged the transition period bridging the old and new safe harbor requirements be extended beyond March 31, 2010, considering the amount of time that will be needed to formulate sound policy and the amount of time that will be needed to implement the new safe harbor requirements.

SIFMA suggested the FDIC extend the interim period for the effectiveness of the 2000 Safe Harbor for at least six months beyond the March 31 date.

The agency securitization market is anticipating the government's withdrawal when the Federal Reserve winds down its $1.25trn of MBS purchases by the end of March.

Feds continue to dispute the time line of selling mortgage assets acquired under this program. Fed chairman Ben Bernanke has said a series of policy wind-down methods are being tested. The Fed may first drain excess reserves built up over many months through extraordinary asset-purchase programs, and then begin to raise the target for the federal funds rate. Or the Fed could pursue both options simultaneous to facilitate a quicker exit.

Write to Diana Golobay.

Monday, February 22nd, 2010

Do you live in Connecticut? Has your home been foreclosed upon, but you want to stay there for a little while longer? For free? Then Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal has the offer a lifetime for you: don’t answer the door when your lender comes knocking, and you’ll get at least 90 days free of charge.

It’s a message that seems to go against the tide of both Congress and the Obama administration—which have repeatedly asked homeowners to work with their lenders in times of trouble—and illustrates just how much leeway individual states really have in implementing vague federal laws.

In the case of tenants, the federal law in question is called the Protecting Tenants at Foreclosure Act (PTFA) – a new law passed last year by Congress, which provides tenants with new rights in a foreclosure and gives so-called “bona fide” tenants at least 90 days notice to vacate any property subject to foreclosure.

For those of you keeping score at home, a “bona fide” tenant under the federal law has to meet three criteria: they can’t be the note holder, or related to the note holder; the lease transaction itself must be considered legitimate and arm's length; and the rent charged on the property lease must be somewhere near market value.

Not that any of that matters in Connecticut, mind you, as we’re about to find out.

On February 3rd, the state AG’s office publicized what it called an initiative to stop “illegal evictions” of tenants from their homes once the landlord lost the house at a foreclosure sale; the state AG sent cease-and-desist letters to a number of servicers and their legal counsel warning them of numerous “violations” of the PTFA.

According to copies of letters I’ve reviewed, Blumenthal instructs servicers to “treat all occupants of foreclosed properties as bona fide tenants, unless there is credible evidence to the contrary.” The letters also ask lenders to “refrain from treating the mere failure to respond to a notice as evidence that the occupant is not a bona fide tenant.”

Let’s get ground-level here, since Blumenthal’s office clearly chose not to: any borrower who hides behind their door and refuses to answer gets treated as a “bona fide” tenant under the Federal law? Really? Apparently, it’s asking too much to expect at least some level of responsibility among the voting public in Connecticut. (Or even common courtesy, for that matter.)

Here’s why this matters. Most evictions, in Connecticut and elsewhere in the U.S., involve former owners (and not tenants). For former owners in Connecticut, there is no notice period – meaning that once the foreclosure is complete, eviction proceedings begin. Tenants have always had 60 days notice within the state, an inconvenient truth Blumenthal chose to ignore during his press conference. The PTFA, then, essentially gives some tenants (those that are "bona fide" as defined by the law) an extra 30 days over and above what the state already requires.

By treating any non-responsive occupant as a “bona fide” tenant, any Dick, Jane, or Harry willing to leave their front door closed can get three months' worth of free rent.

It gets even better: even if the servicer can find someone who will open their front door, and that someone identifies themselves as a tenant, that servicer isn’t allowed to verify such a claim. Meaning anyone can make the claim, since Blumenthal instructs servicers to “refrain from requesting proof that rent payments with the prior owner are current,” claiming that “such proof is not required” under the PTFA.

And if that weren’t already enough, servicers also are expected to honor any lease agreements entered into prior to the completion of a foreclosure – meaning, as Blumenthal’s letter states, “the date title passes to the foreclosing party.”

The PTFA only states that lenders must recognize leases “entered into before the notice of foreclosure,” which in Connecticut would be the lis pendens that notifies a homeowner that their home is entering the foreclosure process. It takes more than 3-4 months to go from start to finish on a foreclosure sale in Connecticut, so a troubled borrower who knows they are going to lose their home can – with blessing of the state AG – go find a renter for a few months, and pocket the money.

Of course, when the home is eventually lost at foreclosure months later, those unlucky tenants who had no idea they were being duped by the former owner get to complain loudly to the press about how they were duped. (And the banks get to take the blame for it, too.)

If Blumenthal was truly serious about protecting tenant’s rights, he wouldn’t allow this nonsense. He might even work with mortgage servicing execs — he's right by New York, for crying out loud — to understand the process he is trying to put under his thumb.

He could choose to enact notice requirements for tenants during the foreclosure process, for one thing, so they know a pending foreclosure is coming – California and Florida already require this of foreclosing lenders, for example, while Connecticut for some reason prefers to keep tenants in the dark.

He might also choose to require notices to tenants about to enter into a new lease, notifying them if their soon-to-be-landlord is in foreclosure on the property about to be leased.

He could push a state-sponsored system that allows consumers to check online – for free – the status of a property they are looking to lease, to see if it is in foreclosure before they sign. He might even push to pass a law outlawing sham leases by troubled homeowners facing foreclosure, and installing stiff penalties for anyone that tries it.

But these are just the sort of common sense ideas that don’t win votes ahead of an election year, now do they? After all, Blumenthal is running to fill Chris Dodd's soon-to-be vacant Senate seat.

– Paul Jackson is the publisher of HousingWire.com and HousingWire Magazine.

Monday, February 22nd, 2010

US commercial real estate prices as measured by Moody's Investors Service/Real Estate Analytics, Commercial Property Price Indices (CPPI) increased for the second month in a row in December, rising 4.1%, as the commercial real estate (CRE) market continues to face several challenges, such as the rising tide of defaults and subsequent foreclosures.

In Scottsdale, Ariz., CRE developer International Capital Partners (ICP) is facing foreclosure on two of its premier office buildings, the Phoenix Business Journal reports. Camelback Tower and Camelback Executive Park, located in western Scottsdale, are scheduled for trustee sale April 1. The properties were intended to be a part of the District at Camelback mixed-use development, along with two other buildings, the Journal said.

It’s the latest in a string of property disputes ICP has dealt with since the credit crisis began. ICP Chairman Tom Donahue told the Journal his firm is in negotiations on a number of Arizona properties, including the Camelback buildings, which he said he believes the company can keep its hands on. The firm, while headquartered in Arizona, also has offices in Colorado, Montana, Texas and London.

When housing collapsed in the greater Phoenix area, CRE’s failure wasn’t too far behind. Scottsdale Mayor Jim Lane said CRE issues aren’t limited to ICP’s troubles.

“There’s a few thousand developers who have encountered problems. My role is not to criticize. The fact is that, at the height of the market, developers could hardly make a mistake,” Lane told the Journal.

Moody’s said the index’s improvement was the largest month-over-month increase in the nine-year history of the CPPI and followed a small, 1% gain in November. The volume of transactions also rose in December, typical for the end of the year, Moody’s added. In December, 716 transactions totaling $9bn were recorded in the month. At the end of December, CRE prices are down 29.2% from a year ago and 39.8% from two years ago. They are 40.8% below their peak values.

But, Moody’s said, it’s uncertain whether the recent price increases represent CRE passing the bottom of the market or are only the “volatility of a market in transition.”

“Although we are unable to conclude that the bottom to the commercial real estate market is here, we do believe that the period of large price declines is over,” said Moody's managing director Nick Levidy. “We will need to see data from the first few months of 2010 to develop a better picture of where things stand.”

While the large price declines may be over, the mounting foreclosures left in the wake of those losses still have to be processed through the system. In Denver, three local CRE firms have partnered to establish a distressed CRE disposition firm, according to the Denver Business Journal.

LC Fulenwider, Bitzer Real Estate Partners and Real Estate Generation (REGen) reportedly formed American Property Solutions (APS). APS’ services include work as property receivers and trustees, property and construction management, accounting and brokerage and leasing services

Moody’s said its quarterly national property type indices show three of the four major property types recording price gains in the Q409. Offices had the largest gain, at 7.9%, while apartments improved 7% during the quarter and industrial increased 5.6%, Moody’s said, adding retail was the only major sector to decline, at 1.5%. While the year-end results were an improvement, the annual decline in CRE sector prices ranged from 19.0% to 23.2%.

In the top-ten metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs), apartment prices fell 2.1% in Q409 and industrial prices were down 2.8%, Moody’s said. Retail prices increased 3.1% during the quarter, while offices — which declined almost 20% in the Q309 and 10% in the Q209 — were up 26.8%.

The top 10 MSAs account for about 50% to 80% of the transactions in the national property type indices, Moody’s said. However, in the West, prices have fared better than the national average in three of the four price indices, the office sector being the lone exception. Western office prices fell 25.5% in 2009, compared to the national office annual decline of 19.8%, Moody’s said.

Even further west, in Hawaii, the dollar volume for the top 10 transactions increased significantly over 2008, according to an analysis by the Honolulu-based Pacific Business News.

The total dollar volume for the 10 largest transactions last year was more than $233m, the publication said, up $91m, or 64%, from the more than $142m generated by the 10 largest transactions of 2008. While a significant increase, it still pales in comparison to the $1.1bn generated from 2007’s Top 10 transactions.

Write to Austin Kilgore.

Monday, February 22nd, 2010

As HousingWire reports in Monday Morning Cup of Coffee, government-sponsored entity (GSE) Fannie Mae (FNM: 0.00 N/A) pledged its support to the mortgage warehouse operations of New York-based global financial services firm Guggenheim Partners.

Fannie provided NattyMac, Guggenheim's mortgage warehouse lending subsidiary, with a $1bn warehouse credit line under the initiative, a spokesperson confirmed to HousingWire on Monday.

"In this market, lenders who rely on warehouse funding are struggling to sell their loans and replenish their funds in a timely way," said Fannie president and CEO Michael Williams. "We are taking action now to help fill the gap by providing $1bn of critical liquidity targeted at smaller lenders across the country."

Fannie's agreement will apply to third-party originations by NattyMac's mortgage banking clients. St. Petersburg, Fla.-based NattyMac specializes on financing prime mortgage collateral, like agency-eligible and government-insured or -guaranteed loans.

NattyMac already enjoys a similar arrangement with the other GSE, Freddie Mac (FRE: 0.00 N/A). Freddie announced in early October its pilot program to provide standby commitments to purchase qualifying loans in the event a seller/servicer either cannot meet its contract obligations or fails. NattyMac was one of the first warehouse lenders to sign on to Freddie's program.

“The warehouse lending industry has nearly exited the market making it increasingly difficult for lenders to fund loans,” said Freddie Mac CEO Charles Haldeman Jr.

The warehouse guarantee program will “provide a certain measure of comfort” to warehouse lenders who provide lines of credit to smaller lenders to originate mortgages, a source told HousingWire in October.

For example, if a mortgage banker were to go out of business with loans sitting in the warehouse lender's pipeline, the GSE still purchases the loans through their previous agreement. This commitment is designed to reduce the risk warehouse lenders face when extending short-term credit to smaller lenders.

Write to Diana Golobay.

Disclosure: The author holds no relevant investment positions.

Monday, February 22nd, 2010

While some homebuilders are reporting increases in prices, a large majority of the construction firms believe new Federal Housing Administration (FHA) guidelines may lead to lower overall home sales according to the February “Housing Survey from the Frontlines,” a monthly homebuilder survey issued by John Burns Real Estate Consulting (JBREC).

According to the survey, builders in Southern California, Texas and the Northeast said new home prices increased month-over-month. Some gains are coming from a reduction in sales incentives, but some builders are increasing base prices.

However, 87% of builders surveyed said they expect to lose sales due to new FHA guidelines. Half of the builders surveyed expect to lose 10% or more of sales. As HousingWire reported in January, the FHA raised insurance fees and down payments for borrowers with lower credit scores to address the FHA’s capital reserve ratio, which fell below the Congressionally mandated 2% threshold. Borrowers with a FICO score of less than 580 are now required to make a 10% down payment, up from the previous 3.5% down payment. In addition, seller concessions have been cut in half to 3%, from 6% and mortgage insurance fee at closing increased from 175 bps to 226 bps.

According to the survey, 44% of builders said reduced seller paid closing costs would have the biggest impact, while 40% said the increased down payments for low FICO scores would be the biggest impact.

“The new FHA guidelines will have a tremendous effect on the first time homebuyer. We have seen over the past 12 months that this buyer does not have a lot of money for a down payment and usually has to be put on a savings plan to get to the 3.5%,” said a builder in Washington, DC. “Closing assistance is also crucial for this same cash poor buyer. It seems like one step forward with the tax incentives and then two steps back with the new guidelines.”

In separate commentary released Monday, JBREC said industry buzz is that the Washington, DC economy is on the mend even though, after adding jobs in 2008, the city started to slightly lose jobs in early 2009. This grew into solid job losses as the year progressed. Professional and business services as well as leisure and hospitality jobs are the primary sources of lost jobs. Construction employment, severely hit by the commercial real estate decline, is also declining, JBREC said.

Despite the decline, JBREC believes DC will be one of the first housing markets to stabilize due to improved affordability, a lack of new home construction, and relatively few foreclosures, but warned, “don't count your chickens before they hatch.”

This concern would seem to contradict commentary released by analysts at Barclays Capital (BarCap), who said the changes might be “all bark, little bite.” Indeed, some builders surveyed are less concerned about the impact of the FHA changes.

“The required 10% down payment for those with FICOs of less than 580 will have no impact, since no one will finance anything less than 620,” said a Tampa builder. “The 3% max contribution will hurt the first time buyers, though, with little cash to spend on closing costs.”

The February survey gauged the perception of 292 home building industry executives in 99 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) that oversee more than 2,200 communities. JBREC said the national average net sales contracts per community increased to 1.6, up from 1.4 at the end of 2009, but below September 2009’s high of 2.

“Sales gains are very focused on the entry level and in the best locations. Traffic pick-up is in quality more than quantity,” said Jody Kahn, a JBREC vice president.

The biggest increases were reported in the Southern California, Northern California and the Northeast regions, JBREC said, adding net sales were flat in the Southwest and Midwest, and declined in Southern Florida. In addition, the survey showed new developments are outselling older developments, due to better locations and lower price points.

The average unsold, finished inventory per community decreased to 3.0 units, but is up from 2.8 units in the fall. JBREC projects inventory to increase through May, when builders will rush to write contracts by the April 30 signing deadline for the federal homebuyer tax credit. Nearly all builders are starting some speculative inventory; most are cautious, but some large builders are very aggressive, JBREC said.

But not every builder is pleased by the increase. A Jacksonville builder said in the John Burns survey: “Many local and national builders are starting too much inventory in hopes of closing them before the tax credit ends, further increasing standing inventory which the market does not need.”

And a builder in Phoenix echoed that sentiment. “Still holding our breath to see if there is a selling season. We think the $6,500 existing homeowner tax credit is worthless. Builders' spec starts way up on hope.”

Builders reported cancellation rates are at low levels, as most builders are targeting the entry-level buyer, who doesn’t have a home to sell. The majority of builders, 62%, reported cancellation rates between 1% and 15%, unchanged from January’s survey, but up 57% from October. Only three builders reported cancellation rates above 50%. Most builders will not accept a sales contract that is contingent on the sale of the buyer’s current home, JBREC said, adding builders are carefully prequalifying potential buyers, which reduces cancellations, and rates have remained stable.

Write to Austin Kilgore.



Origination/Lending
Kenneth Bacon, executive vice president of the Fannie Mae multifamily mortgage business, is retiring after 18 years at the mortgage...

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Servicing/Default
The serious delinquency rate for Federal Housing Administration mortgages reached 9.6% in December, the highest level in more than two...

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