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Archive for February, 2010

Tuesday, February 23rd, 2010

Several hedge funds named last week in the Greek press have denied shorting the country’s debt, while others declined to comment.

Separately, a Goldman Sachs executive told British lawmakers that it did “nothing inappropriate” in arranging now-criticized debt-swap deals for Greece, according to Bloomberg News.

Brevan Howard issued an investor letter shortly after the reports came out, saying it had no exposure to Greek debt or the credit default swaps that insure against its default since mid-December.

Tuesday, February 23rd, 2010

Under growing pressure from conservatives and "tea party" activists, Sen. John McCain of Arizona is having to defend his record of supporting the government's massive bailout of the financial system.

In response to criticism from opponents seeking to defeat him in the Aug. 24 Republican primary, the four-term senator says he was misled by then-Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. McCain said the pair assured him that the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program would focus on what was seen as the cause of the financial crisis, the housing meltdown.

Tuesday, February 23rd, 2010

Mortgage insurer Radian Group (RDN: 2.66 +2.70%) reported a net loss of $91.9m, or $1.12 per share, in Q409, bringing the net loss for 2009 to $147.9m, or $1.80 per share.

The Q409 loss was better than the net loss of $250.4m, or $3.11 per share in Q408. In 2008, Radian posted a net loss of $410.6m, or $5.12 per share.

Radian subsidiary Radian Guaranty risk-to-capital ratio was 15.4:1 at the end of 2009, down from 16.1:1 at the end of Q309 and 16.4:1 at the end of 2008. This is below the 25:1 limit imposed by a number of states, and Radian Group said its prepared, subject to final regulatory and GSE approval, its 50-state licensed mortgage insurance subsidiary, Amerin Guaranty to write new business, if needed.

The company’s mortgage insurance provision for losses were $459.9m in Q409 and $1.3bn in 2009, reflecting higher delinquency counts and the continued aging of delinquencies, counteracted by loss mitigation activities, Radian said, adding it expects the delinquency level to at first stabilize and eventually decrease, through the course of 2010.

“As a result of a series of strategic actions and better-than-expected operating results that reduced our estimated inter-company tax obligation for 2010, we now anticipate having excess liquidity through 2012,” said CEO S.A. Ibrahim. “In addition, by actively managing our risk-to-capital ratio to 15.4 to 1, we have improved our foundation to continue writing new, high-quality mortgage insurance business.”

Total mortgage insurance claims paid were $426.8m in Q409 and $970.1m for all of 2009. For 2010, the company expects mortgage insurance claims paid to be approximately $1.5 billion. At the end of 2009, Radian had approximately $1.1bn in statutory surplus with an additional $1.5bn in claims-paying resources.

The results come after credit ratings agency Standard & Poor’s (S&P) downgraded Radian, along with four other mortgage insurers in late December, over concerns on losses from lower risk books of business, and the potential for additional increased losses.

Those threat of increased losses come as government-backed mortgage insurance programs continue to take a greater share of the market. Facing increased competition from the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) and Veterans Administration (VA) programs, the nation’s largest mortgage insurer, MGIC (MGIC: 6.24 -0.48%) announced it will lower rates for borrowers with a credit score of 720 or greater and raise rates for those with credit scores between 620 and 679.

Write to Austin Kilgore.

The author held no relevant investments.

Tuesday, February 23rd, 2010

11.3m homeowners now owe more on their mortgages than the value of their home at the end of Q409, with the Sand States taking four of the top five negative equity, or underwater, markets according to research released by First American CoreLogic.

The number of so-called “underwater” borrowers represents 24% of all residential properties with mortgages in the US, First American CoreLogic said, an increase from 10.7m, or 23% of all residential mortgage borrowers at the end of Q309.

“Negative equity is a significant drag on both the housing market and on economic growth. It is driving foreclosures and decreasing mobility for millions of homeowners,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist with First American CoreLogic. “Since we expect home prices to slightly increase during 2010, negative equity will remain the dominant issue in the housing and mortgage markets for some time to come.”

Negative equity can occur because of a decline in value, an increase in mortgage debt or a combination of both and once it reaches a certain point, is a trigger to strategic default, an issue HousingWire explored in the current edition of its monthly magazine.

Nevada, at 70%, was the state with the highest percentage of negative equity borrowers, followed by Arizona (51%), Florida (48%), Michigan (39%) and California (35%). Among the top five states, underwater mortgages accounted for 42% of all loans, while underwater mortgages only took a 15% share in the remaining 45 states.

First American CoreLogic said 620,000 additional borrowers joined the underwater ranks, with the largest percentage increases occurring in Nevada, Georgia and Arizona. California had the smallest increase, but there are now 35.1% of California borrowers underwater.

Last summer, Deutsche Bank (DB: 44.44 +2.40%) analyst Karen Weaver wrote continued declines in home values will increase the number of US mortgagors with negative equity to 25m in Q111, which she projects will represent 48% of all US borrowers.

In terms of value, the nation’s borrowers are a combined $801bn underwater, up $55bn from $746bn in Q309. Once negative equity exceeds 25%, or the mortgage balance is $70,000 higher than the current property values, owners begin to default with the same propensity as investors, First American CoreLogic said. The average underwater borrower had $70,700 in negative equity, up from $69,700 in Q309. The segment of borrowers 25% or more underwater accounts for more than $660bn in negative equity.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, there are more than 23m, or 49% of all homeowners with a mortgage who have at least 25% equity in their homes and more than 12m borrowers with at least 50% equity in their homes.

Write to Austin Kilgore.

Tuesday, February 23rd, 2010

The Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternatives (HAFA) program will launch on April 5, 2010, and everyone from asset management companies to software providers are rushing new products to the front lines.

HousingWire broke the story on HAFA in October when the US Treasury Department announced the program. HAFA was designed to provide incentives to servicers that provide short sales and deeds-in-lieu of foreclosures to borrowers who do not qualify for a loan modification through the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP). The Treasury aims to help 3-to-4m borrowers through HAMP, which launched in March 2009. Through January 2010, participating servicers provided 116,000 permanent modifications.

Laurie Maggiano, the Chief of the Homeowner Preservation Office at the Treasury, told HousingWire that there are no current estimates for how many borrowers will receive a short sale through HAFA because of there are so many external factors to consider.

With documentation difficulties slowing progress in HAMP, servicers are gearing up for the wave of short sale inquiries on the way in April. MOS Group, a loss mitigation service provider, provides support through a HAFA team that will reach out to borrowers in the mandatory 30 days after a HAMP modification rejection.

“In a situation like this, where the borrower has been declined a loan modification, it’s imperative to communicate and follow up with the borrower quickly and effectively, as this first conversation can often mean the difference between a successful short sale transaction and one that falls into foreclosure,” said Greg Hebner, president of MOS Group.

Equator, which in its prior lift as REOTrans became the largest vendor management platform used by real estate owned (REO) departments across the country, released an agent-initiated short sale feature that allows real estate professionals to directly request a short sale on behalf of a client.

Lenders can enable the agent-initiated feature within the Equator network platform, which the firm says will help lower call volumes and connect the decision makers quicker.

“Traditionally, requesting a short sale meant borrowers had to call their lender, which was often a time-consuming process,” says Chris Saitta, CEO of Equator. “Now agents can now provide the additional service of requesting a short sale directly through Equator. This makes it easier for the borrower, and speeds up the process considerably.”

Chrisley Asset Management (CAM), the default manager, will provide short sale and loan modification services to lenders. CAM will work as a liaison between the borrower and the lender or servicer. When pursuing a short sale or a loan modification, brokers, attorneys and even the borrowers complain of a lack of communication.

Rasheeda Shears of CAM said that not only would borrowers and agents be able to communicate with a CAM liaison to get word back from the banks, but it would be the same representative for each account.

Even online auction sites are getting into the HAFA rush. REA Accelerated Marketing Group, a California-based online real estate bidding platform, formed a partnership with the short-sale technology provider National Quick Sale to “broaden the exposure” of short sale listings and complete more transactions.

“Short Sales are a great alternative to foreclosures, but without a comprehensive automation solution many servicers have simply avoided them,” Equator’s Saitta said.

Write to Jon Prior.

Tuesday, February 23rd, 2010

Technology amazes me. To think that something so very complex can be made accessible and useful to so many is really astounding. To me, this is the real age of enlightenment. Giving people access to computing power without forcing them to understand how it works is bigger than the printing press. History will support me in this, I think.

I mean, how much do you really know about the transistor that’s buried inside your PC (or Mac or smart phone or eBook reader or whatever else)? This amazing little device (I won’t even tell you how many could dance on the head of a pin) is the source of computing power that we all use, every day, without usually giving the mechanics any thought.

So let's take a moment to think about it from the technology's perspective.

Think of the transistor like a little fork in the electronic road. Electronic traffic only flows in one road and out one other. The third road is occupied by a little traffic cop. He determines whether the current flows through the transistor or is stopped dead (on or off) by sensing a charge on his road. It’s like a little electronic switch that we can turn on or off, creating one of two states. If the off state is assigned the number zero and the on is assigned the number 1, we can make any number we want as long as we stack up enough transistors and express our number in base 2, or binary code.

If we assign numbers to letters, we can use these new machines to write and store all sorts of written information. We use a code for this called ASCII, (which is pronounced ASS-kee)—an acronym for American Standard Code for Information Interchange.

So, from the beginning, computers were so complicated that they couldn’t be used by anyone who didn’t understand the binary number system and the ASCII code. In the beginning, only a handful of people in the world could even program them. Big companies sprang up to build, write software for and manage these giant machines, which were invariably hidden in a special room with a controlled environment.

And that’s how it would have probably stayed if it hadn’t been for a bunch of geeky boys messing around in the garage.

Because of kids with names like Gates (itself a computer logic term), Jobs (what every beginning programming student submitted in the form of a stack of punched cards) and Wozniak (I got nothin’ there), just about all of us use computers in our work and for our recreation.

So, it’s interesting now to see that reverse itself a bit, at least in the mortgage technology world. I’ve watched mortgage lending tech tools go from extremely complex, very specialized client/server-based software applications to open architectures with industry-wide data standards to web-services-based, on-demand applications that are fully cloud-based and plugged into other websites or applications seamlessly. Now, I’m being introduced to an idea that takes it back in the other direction.

Cloud computing is huge right now. Companies like the idea of having cheap, on-demand software that they rent instead of own and pay for on a per-transaction basis. Many firms in our space already have some technologies in the cloud but most have resisted having mission critical software provided with this model. There are some questions about who might gain access to the data and what personnel are actually keeping tabs on the software and where they are.

Now, some bigger firms, like RackSpace, have done very well for themselves by keeping their data centers local and making it simple for companies to rent server space. But, there are still risks.

I was talking with Jorge Sauri, founder and former CEO of MortgageDashboard, the other day. I’ve written some things for him in the past, back when he was the chief executive there. He’s CIO now, in charge of R&D. We were talking about on-demand software and the concerns lenders have. He says that lenders like the idea of having software in the cloud, they just don’t like someone else to own that cloud.

He’s working on a new offering that would basically provide a cloud in a box (my words, not his) that could be hosted with RackSpace or some other big secure server farm provider, but would be owned completely by the lender. If something started to feel hinky about the host, the lender could just pick up its cloud and take it somewhere else. In this way, the technology is accessible to everyone, but only a certain caste, if you will, can really get access to it.

Interesting. In my mind, it’s a move away from democratizing technology and back toward sticking it firmly in the domain of experts that the company either owns or hires to maintain it. It’s less of the personal computer model and more of the technology high priest sort of model. With increased regulatory pressure pretty much a certainty, this is the kind of solution that could put lenders back in control in a manner that appeals to regulators.

I have to explore it more, and I plan to, but it looks like it may be one of those solutions specific to the mortgage space that could actually solve some problems going forward. That would be a welcome change.

Tuesday, February 23rd, 2010

Embattled community group ACORN has shut down operations in New York, but reports that it is dissolving its national structure may be premature.

Numerous media outlets are reporting that the group — which faced a torrent of criticism after edited videos showed ACORN employees offering objectionable advice to a pair of young conservative activists masquerading as a pimp and prostitute – has suspended most of its nationwide operations.

Tuesday, February 23rd, 2010

In what it is calling a historic trend reversal, credit score provider FICO, is seeing more borrowers with a high credit score preferring to pay their monthly credit card bill over their mortgage.

"We're identifying lending industry situations in FICO Score Trends that to our knowledge have never been seen before," said Dr. Mark Greene, CEO of FICO, in a statement. "Economic instability is creating unknown risk in lenders' credit portfolios as well as counter-intuitive trends in consumer behavior."

The shift to a consumer preference to stay current on unsecured debt, as opposed to secured debt, began last year. In 2009, 0.3 percent of consumers with FICO scores between 760-789 defaulted on real estate loans, compared to 0.1 percent who defaulted on credit cards. In 2005, credit card delinquency risk was three times greater than today. In 2008, the lower to credit cards being just 1.6 times more likely to become 90 days delinquent than were mortgage loans.

The results echo data released by credit info provider, TransUnion, earlier this month. That study from earlier this month, found the share of borrowers who are delinquent on their mortgages but current on their credit cards rose to 6.6% as of Q309 (from 4.3% in Q108). At the same time, the share of borrowers that are delinquent on credit cards but current on their mortgages slipped to 3.6% from 4.1%.

Write to Jacob Gaffney.

Tuesday, February 23rd, 2010

Citing a need to stay competitive with Federal Housing Administration (FHA) mortgage insurance rates and, to a lesser degree, the Veterans Administration (VA), the nation's largest private mortgage insurer, MGIC(MGIC: 6.24 -0.48%), plans to readjust its rates as of May 1, 2010.

The new rates will be lower for borrowers with a credit score of 720 or greater and higher for borrowers with credit scores between 620 and 679. No change is expected for those with a score between 680 and 719, according to a form 8-K filed today with the Securities Exchange Commission.

Both the FHA and VA sponsor government-backed mortgage insurance programs. And during 2008 and 2009 the combined administrations increased business and accounted for approximately 60.4% and 84.6% of the total low down payment residential mortgages subject to governmental or private mortgage insurance, the filing states.

"This increase in market share includes loans that are eligible for insurance under our current underwriting guidelines," the statement reads. "We believe the FHA, which until 2008 was not viewed by us as a significant competitor, accounted for the overwhelming majority of this increase in both 2008 and 2009."

The huge increase of FHA market share is shocking the market in several ways. Some critics worry about the the lack of a third-party based mortgage finance funding vehicle as the FHA replaces private-label securitization, they argue. More immediately, defaults are rising for the FHA, recently inching past 9%. However, after taking into account the growth of FHA, with a portfolio now worth $750m, the proportional risks are not an indication of the overall health of the business.

"Given the premium rate increases previously announced by the FHA, which will be effective in the near future, MGIC intends that these price changes will position it to be price competitive with the FHA for loans to borrowers with credit scores of 720 and greater," MGIC said. "However, there may be advantages to lenders to insure loans through the FHA, including higher servicing fees than on conventional loans."

Write to Jacob Gaffney.

Tuesday, February 23rd, 2010

Home prices were down 0.2% from November to December, according to the latest Standard & Poor’s (S&P)/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index.

The declines in the month index’s 10-city and 20-city composites are even with the change from October to November. The monthly indices track existing home prices every month on a year-over-year basis in 20 markets, broken down in 10-city and 20-city composites.

In December, the 10-city and 20- city composites recorded annual declines of 2.4% and 3.1%, respectively, continuing the trend of increasingly smaller annual declines every month in 2009.

Home prices declined 2.5% in Q409 compared to Q408. The decline is less than the quarter-over-quarter declines in Q109 (19%), Q209 (14.7%) and Q309 (8.7%). Nationally, prices are at their Q203 levels.

“As measured by prices, the housing market is definitely in better shape than it was this time last year, as the pace of deterioration has stabilized for now. However, the rate of improvement seen during the summer of 2009 has not been sustained,” said David Blitzer, chairman of S&P’s index committee.

Prices were down from November to December in 15 of 20 metro areas, with Chicago posting the biggest decline at 1.6%.

“The national picture — while two or three years ago, was one of almost unison, almost every city going up or every city going down — is now a bit more mixed,” Blitzer said in a call with reporters.

The gain of 0.2% in Las Vegas was the first month-over-month increase in more than three years. But Robert Shiller, a Yale University economics professor and chief economist and MacroMarkets, said its unclear what the results mean for Las Vegas, where prices are at the same level as in the year 2000.

“Once you have an experience like this, it changes forever your perceptions of the market, and once you see volatility in the market, you become more trigger happy and quick to move in and out of the market,” Shiller said during the press call. “So it’s possible they could go through another boom, but what we’re seeing this month is no indication of that at all.”

Increases from November to December in Los Angeles (1%), Phoenix (0.5%) were the seventh straight period of month-over-month increases. The 0.1% increase in San Diego was the eighth consecutive month on increases. Detroit was unchanged from November.

But declines in three of the markets — Charlotte (0.7%), Seattle (0.7%) and Tampa (0.6%)— were new low index levels, erasing any gains those markets may have previously experienced and making December their current trough value.

“In the most recent months we are seeing fewer and fewer MSAs reporting monthly gains in prices. Only four cities saw month-to-month improvements in December over November, when you look at the raw data,” Blitzer said.

“We are in a seasonally slow period for home prices, however, so it is not surprising to see better statistics in the seasonally-adjusted data, where 14 of the markets and the two monthly composites all rose in December.”

Write to Austin Kilgore.



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