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Archive for February, 2010

Wednesday, February 24th, 2010

Adverse weather and a holiday-shortened week produced mixed results in two weekly mortgage application surveys.

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) survey of gross mortgage application volume dropped 8.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending February 19, compared to one week ago.

But the Mortgage Maxx index that’s adjusted to reflect the number of households applying for mortgages increased 6.5%.

The 15-point swing between the two surveys is unusual, but not unprecedented. The Mortgage Maxx index was adjusted to reflect the holiday-shortened week. The MBA survey was not. However, the MBA said the rash of extreme winter weather impacted results.

“As many East Coast markets were digging out from the blizzard last week, purchase applications fell, another indication that housing demand remains relatively weak,” said Michael Fratantoni, MBA's vice president of research and economics. “With home prices continuing to drift amid an abundant inventory of homes on the market, potential homebuyers do not see any urgency to lock in purchases.”

MBA’s refinance index decreased 8.9% from the previous week and the purchase index was also down 7.3%, putting the later at its lowest level since May 1997.

Refinance mortgages took a 68.1% share of all application business, down from 69.3% last week. Adjustable-rate mortgages increased to 4.7% from 4.4% a week ago.

Write to Austin Kilgore.

Wednesday, February 24th, 2010

New home sales dropped 11.2% from December to January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 309,000, according to estimates released by the Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD).

December’s original estimated rate was 342,000, a drop of 7.6% from November. December’s rate was later revised to 348,000. January’s rate was 6.1% below the January 2009 estimate of 329,000.

Sales took the biggest dive in the Northeast, where 24,000 homes were sold in January, compared to 37,000 in December, a decline of 35.1%. In the West, sales declined 11.9% to 74,000 from 84,000. In the South, sales declined 9.5% to 162,000 from 179,000. The Midwest was the only region to see a month-over-month increase, up 2.1% to 49,000 from 48,000.

The Census and HUD said the median sales price for new homes sold in January 2010 was $203,500, while the average was $254,500. The December median was $221,300 and the average was $290,600.

The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of January was 234,000, representing a supply of 9.1 months at the current sales rate. That’s up from an 8.1-month supply in December.

The double-digit drop in sales comes as builders are worried that changes to Federal Housing Administration (FHA) guidelines will hurt sales. Builders have been ramping up production in anticipation of increased demand for spec homes before the expiration of the homebuyer tax credit, according to John Burns Real Estate Consulting (JBREC).

As HousingWire previously reported, the firm’s president, John Burns, believes the tax credit may be extended if the housing market remains stalled.

Write to Austin Kilgore.

Wednesday, February 24th, 2010

As the performance of commercial real estate (CRE) continues to slide, so does the commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) market, potentially adversely affecting repayment commitments to bond holders. Undeterred by current market conditions, and perhaps spurred by it, CMBS analytics firm Trepp just purchased CRE analytics firm Foresight Analytics for an undisclosed amount.

Susan Persin, co-founder of privately-held Foresight, said: “This transaction provides Foresight with the scale and resources we need to reach a broader commercial real estate audience to provide more timely and relevant analysis on the shifting CRE landscape.”

Trepp a regular provider of CMBS analytics to HousingWire, is headquartered in New York, with a client base focused on broker dealers, commercial banks, asset managers, and investors.

The purchase of Foresight provides Trepp a geographical outlet on the West Coast as well as access to its commercial, and residential, market consulting services and forecasting clients, primarily institutional investors, lenders and developers.

"Trepp is committed to expanding the value delivered to our clients,” said Annemarie DiCola, CEO of Trepp. “Foresight has terrific name recognition and great respect in the marketplace. We expect that they will quickly add even more depth to our offerings.”

Write to Jacob Gaffney.

Wednesday, February 24th, 2010

Californians are moving through the backlogged inventory of homes at a faster rate in January, as house prices gained nationally in Q409, according to the California Association of Realtors (CAR).

At the current pace of sales in California, it would take 5.8 months to move through the backlogged inventory of homes as of January 2010, down from 7.3 months a year earlier.

Nationwide, the credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s (S&P) estimated the “shadow inventory” of bank-repossessed properties, as well as distressed mortgages facing foreclosure, will take nearly three years to clear at the current national sales rate. As for the total amount of homes in the shadow inventory, Amherst Securities places the total at 7m. The Royal Bank of Scotland found 2.7m, and First American CoreLogic counted 1.7m.

Home sales in California decreased 10.6% from a year ago to more than 539,000 closed, single-family homes in January. But the median sales price climbed 15% from the year before to $287,440.

“Many sales that closed escrow in January were on homes with offers accepted during the holiday season — a time when many house hunters are first-time buyers,” said CAR president Steve Goddard. “First-time buyers typically purchase homes priced below an area’s median home price. Reflecting this, the percentage of homes priced under $500,000 increased to 77 percent of all sales in January, compared with 75 percent in December.”

Goddard added that despite the year-to-year decline, sales stayed above the 500,000-unit threshold for the 17th consecutive month, holding at pre-peak levels from early last decade.

The city of Newport Beach had the highest median home price at $1.1m. The largest increase in prices occurred in Redwood City, where the median price improved 43.2% from a year ago.

Write to Jon Prior.

Wednesday, February 24th, 2010

Freddie Mac (FRE: 0.00 N/A) posted a loss of $7.8bn, or $2.39 per share, in Q409, bringing the government-sponsored enterprise’s (GSE) total loss in 2009 to $25.7bn.

But Freddie said its net worth as of December 31, 2009 was $4.4bn, and no additional funding was required from the Treasury Department under the terms of the purchase agreement for the fourth quarter.

The Q409 loss includes a $1.3bn dividend payment to the Treasury on the senior preferred stock it holds. Net interest income for the quarter was $4.5bn, but results were also impacted by a $3.4bn write-down of the carrying value of the company’s Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) investments and $7.1bn in credit-related expenses.

“We start 2010 with some early signs of stabilization in the housing market, with house prices and home sales likely nearing the bottom sometime in 2010. We expect that low mortgage rates, relatively high affordability and the homebuyer tax credit will help continue to fuel the recovery,” said Freddie Mac CEO Charles Haldeman, Jr.

In Q309 Freddie Mac lost $6.7bn, or $2.06 per share. In Q408, Freddie lost $23.9bn, capping off 2008’s total loss of $50.1bn, or $34.60 per share.

“Still, the housing recovery remains fragile, with significant downside risk posed by high unemployment and a potential large wave of foreclosures. That's why our commitment to help struggling homeowners is steadfast — and we will continue working to find ways to keep families in their homes through both our own programs and the Obama Administration's Making Home Affordable Program,” Haldeman added.

At the end of 2009, Freddie said it helped 272,000 borrowers either stay in their homes or sell their properties through the company’s foreclosure avoidance programs and the Making Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP). At year’s end, Freddie had 129,380 loans currently in HAMP workout plan trial periods. Freddie also was involved in the refinancing of $379bn of single-family loans, creating an estimated $4.5bn in annual interest savings for borrowers, including 169,000 borrowers participating in the Freddie Mac Relief Refinance Mortgage program.

Freddie’s real estate owned (REO) operations lost $88m in Q409 , compared to income of $96m in Q309, due to lower recoveries of property write-downs in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter. REO operations lost $307m for full-year 2009, compared to a $1.1bn loss in 2008. Freddie attributed the smaller loss to stabilizing home prices in 2009, as opposed to 2008, which was marked with a sharp decline in prices.

Write to Austin Kilgore.

The author held no relevant investments.

Tuesday, February 23rd, 2010

A trade organization for real estate agents, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) is recommending to Congress that the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) Fannie Mae (FNM: 0.00 N/A) and Freddie Mac (FRE: 0.00 N/A) be converted into non-profit secondary market authorities.

NAR proposed that the current private profit and public loss structure be removed while regulators and Congress consider restructuring plans for the GSEs. NAR added that Fannie and Freddie are “best positioned” to become government authorities, and they should provide a flow of capital into the secondary market regardless of the volatility of the mortgage markets.

But they would not be federal agencies, according to the proposal. Instead, the authorities would function as “self-sustaining” organizations removed of Congressional funds and profit motives.

However, NAR called for the government to guarantee the businesses of the authorities through the use of mortgage insurance on products with a loan-to-value (LTV) ratio of 80% or higher and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) fees.

“NAR believes that any organization with a private profit and public loss structure, as the GSEs are presently structured, is inherently flawed,” according to the proposal.

All excess revenue would be reinvested to accumulate capital in strong markets in order to spark rebounds in weaker markets. To lure private market participation, NAR also proposed a guarantee from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.

An upcoming House Committee on Financial Services hearing on the future of the GSEs was rescheduled. The Committee chairman Barney Frank recently called for the abolition of Fannie and Freddie and designing a whole new system of housing finance.

Write to Jon Prior.

Tuesday, February 23rd, 2010

Lowe’s Companies (LOW: 26.91 -0.15%), the world’s second largest home improvement retailer, reported profits of $205m, or $0.14 per share, for its fiscal fourth quarter ending January 29.

The Q409 results are up 26.5% from one year ago, when Q408 net earnings were $162m, or $0.11 per share. For the fiscal year ending January 29, 2010, net earnings were $1.78bn, or $1.21 per share, down 18.8% from one year ago, when North Carolina-based Lowe’s earned $2.195bn. In Q309, Lowe's reported net earnings of $344m.

Sales increased 1.8% to $10.2bn, up from $10bn in Q408. For the entire fiscal year, sales declined 2.1% to $47.2bn. Comparable store sales declined 1.6% in Q409 and 6.7% for fiscal 2009. Lowe’s opened 11 new stores during the quarter, bringing the company’s total to 1,710 stores in the US and Canada.

“Our fourth quarter results, including sales and earnings that exceeded our guidance, suggest the worst of the economic cycle is likely behind us,” said Lowe's chairman and CEO Robert Niblock. “While the psychological impact of falling home prices and an uncertain employment picture continue to weigh on consumers, improving comparable store sales trends, including improvement in many bigger-ticket, project categories, provides an encouraging sign that consumers are gaining the confidence to take on more discretionary projects.”

During the quarter, Lowe’s board of directors initiated a repurchase of $500m, or 21.9m shares, of the company's common stock, a power that expired at the end of the 2009 fiscal year. Over the next three years, Lowe’s said it intends to purchase up to $5bn in common stock, subject to market conditions and will be made from time to time either in the open market or through private transactions.

In its fiscal year Q110, Lowe’s plans to open 11 stores and said sales should increase 1% to 3%, but said comparable store sales will range from a 2% decline to flat. For this fiscal year, Lowe’s projects earnings per share of $1.30 to $1.42.

Rival Home Depot (HD: 44.87 -0.18%) posted a $342m profit in its fiscal year fourth quarter that ended January 31.

Write to Austin Kilgore.

The author held no relevant investments.

Tuesday, February 23rd, 2010

By the end of 2009, 702 banks made the “Problem List” for the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC), a marked increase of 27% from 552 at the end of Q309.

Additionally, the total amount of assets of insured institutions increased $137.2bn to $13.7trn in Q409. Bank investments in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) also increased by $44.8bn, overall, to $1.4trn.

The FDIC issues the list based on liquidity, asset quality and capital levels. The FDIC does not, however, publicly list the brand names of financial institutions so as not to negatively impact retail business. The FDIC does provide the total amount of assets on the list. And for Q409, that total increased 16% to $402.8bn from $345.9bn in the previous quarter.

“Consistent with a recovering economy, we saw signs of improvement in industry performance," said FDIC chairman Sheila Bair. "But as we have said before, recovery in the banking industry tends to lag behind the economy, as the industry works through its problem assets.”

In Q409, 45 banks failed, bringing the total for 2009 to 140 – the highest total for any year since 1992. FDIC resources, which include cash and marketable securities, swelled to $66bn at the end of 2009 from $23bn in September. In November, the FDIC required institutions to prepay quarterly insurance assessments for more than three years, resulting in an infusion of $45bn to the FDIC.

The Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF), from which the insurance against bank failures is paid out, dropped by $12.7bn in Q409. The FDIC set aside $44bn in loss reserves to cover estimated losses. The total amount of insured deposits grew 13.5% in the quarter to $641.3bn, which reflects the temporary increase in the standard maximum amount from $100,000 to $250,000.

But while some banks continue to struggle, others are showing signs of profit. Commercial banks and institutions reported $914m in profit in Q409, a $38.7bn improvement from losses in Q408, for example.

James Chessen, chief economist at the American Bankers Association (ABA), said the FDIC report is proof the banking industry is in a well-fortified financial position to meet challenges ahead in 2010.

"Banks added another $5bn in equity capital in the fourth quarter and total industry capital is now just short of $1.5trn. When added to the $227bn in reserves banks have set aside to cover losses, this makes for a total buffer of roughly $1.7trn against losses," Chessen said. "In addition, 95.5% of banks – holding over 98.6% of the industry’s assets – are still classified as ‘well capitalized,’ which is the highest regulatory designation possible."

Write to Jon Prior.

Tuesday, February 23rd, 2010

Lloyd Blankfein is starting to worry about his legacy.

The 55-year-old chief executive of Goldman Sachs — three-plus years into his tenure — recently turned to a Texas corporate p.r. firm to buff the image of the tarnished Wall Street powerhouse.

Turning to outside consultants to gauge a firm's "perception in the marketplace" is unusual for the 140-year-old firm. But that's what you do, even if you are Masters of the Universe, when the national and international media accuse you of engineering and profiting from a back-door rescue of AIG, of using cash from a taxpayer bailout and cheap Federal Reserve financing to help finance lavish bonuses, and taking down the entire Greek economy.

Tuesday, February 23rd, 2010

So much for the whole "I have not been personally enriched by Scott's activities/quite the contrary" thing Kim Rothstein was claiming outside a courthouse in Fort Lauderdale after her Ponzi-scheming husband pled guilty inside.

Bankruptcy lawyers have learned the government has been allowing Rothstein to not only remain in one ill-gotten (and hideously decorated) McMansion without paying rent, but to collect rent on some of the couple's other million-dollar former properties — properties that she no longer owns because they were forfeited to the government when Scott Rothstein was criminally charged for his $1.2 billion dollar scam.



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