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Archive for February, 2010

Monday, February 15th, 2010

As Ken Lewis prepares to defend himself from fraud charges in New York, the retired chief executive of Bank of America Corp. may be sheltered from personal financial loss by several layers of special insurance.

Legal and insurance experts say high-profile executives, such as Lewis, at large corporations are protected from serious financial harm in the case of a lawsuit because of cash set aside for their defense by the company and additional insurance, known as director’s and officer’s insurance. It has also been reported that recently Lewis individually secured additional insurance coverage for any damages not covered by the bank

Monday, February 15th, 2010

The Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) is expanding asset-backed securities strategy divisions with the recent hirings of three new members, both in the US and UK.

The hiring of Gregory Reiter and and Jeana Curro is part of a strategy of expanding stateside structured finance operations: "Given the complexity and dynamic change in these markets, it is increasingly vital to have leading strategists help clients identify investment opportunities and mitigate risks," said their new boss, Brian Lancaster, Head of MBS, CMBS and ABS Strategies.

Reiter and Curro will be based in the Stamford, Connecticut offices of RBS. Reiter will focus on agency collateralized mortgage obligations and Curro on agency mortgage-backed securities. Both are UBS veterans.

Additionally, the former head of ABS research for Deutsche Bank, Ganesh Rajendra, who left to go to Henderson Global Investors around six months ago is now at the RBS London office. Sources at RBS tell HousingWire Rajendra joined in January as head of asset and mortgage-backed strategy for Europe and Asia.

The bank last year lost its London-based asset-backed securities analyst, Ronald Thompson, who left to work for Knights Capital Group.

Write to Jacob Gaffney.

Monday, February 15th, 2010

As HousingWire reported over the weekend, the delinquency rate on commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) conduit and fusion loans posted the largest single monthly increase on record. US CMBS loans are also transferring to special servicing status faster and greater than ever before.

The delinquency rate on CMBS conduit and fusion loans, structured finance revolving liquidity platforms, rose by 52 bps in January, driving the total rate to 5.42% in February, according to a report by Moody’s Investors Service.

The total delinquent balance is more than $36bn – a $3bn rise over the previous month. It marks the largest increase in the delinquency rate, by dollars and basis points, as recorded in the current downturn by Moody’s:

A total 409 CMBS conduit and fusion loans became newly delinquent in January.

The multifamily loan category grew 63 bps to 8.77% delinquent in January. The South region led multifamily delinquencies; although this district represents 30% of the overall multifamily balance, it represents more than 40% of the overall newly delinquent balance. The southern multifamily delinquency rate grew 85 bps in January, reaching 12.3% delinquent – the highest of the four regions.

Hotel loans rose 75 bps to 9.82% delinquent, the highest of all commercial loan categories (illustrated below).

The West led hotel loan delinquencies this month, rising 100 bps to 12.3%. Three newly delinquent hotels in San Diego comprise more than 60% of the newly delinquent western hotel loans. But the overall western hotel delinquency rate was second only to the South, which grew 76 bps to 14.1% delinquent.

US CMBS loans are also transferring to special servicing, a status denoting deteriorating collateral performance, in larger increments and at faster speeds than ever before, according to weekly commentary by Fitch Ratings. In January, 248 loans worth $4.27bn moved into special servicing – more than four times the balance sheet that transferred a year ago.

The size of specially serviced loans has increased 2.4 times from 2009 to $17.2m, with five CMBS loans over $100m.

"More loans will approach final maturity without available extensions or a refinancing commitment," said managing director Mary MacNeill. "Available liquidity remains limited, which is making refinancing large loans more difficult even when they are performing."

Retail loans lead CMBS loans by dollar volume with $15bn in special servicing. Hotel loans follow with $11bn in special servicing. Multifamily and office loans have $9.8bn and $7.5bn, respectively, in special servicing.

Write to Diana Golobay.

Monday, February 15th, 2010

Hank Paulson, the former US Treasury secretary who orchestrated America’s financial bailouts, has attacked President Barack Obama’s proposals to break up big banks and clamp down on their trading activities.

In an interview with The Sunday Times, Paulson said that the plans to stop banks from betting their own capital on the financial markets would “not solve the problem” or prevent a future crisis.

He also said that the world needed big banks to kick-start the global economy. Rather than breaking them up, regulators should focus on how to wind them down in times of crisis, he said, as recommended by Mervyn King, governor of the Bank of England.

Monday, February 15th, 2010

Canada should be bracing itself for the reality that house prices are more likely to go down than up in the next few years, says former Bank of Canada governor David Dodge.

He is not taking sides in the simmering debate about whether there is a housing bubble in this country, noting that policy-makers are still struggling with a long-standing dilemma: you don't know a bubble until it bursts.

What he is saying is that prices are certainly strong enough that it would be wise for Ottawa to take action.

Monday, February 15th, 2010

Credit specialists at Citi are considering launching the first derivatives intended to pay out in the event of a financial crisis. The firm has drawn up plans for a tradable liquidity index, known as the CLX, on which products could be structured that allow buyers to hedge a spike in funding costs.

Like the untraded US rates liquidity index (USRLI), the CLX is constructed as a sum of the Sharpe ratio – deviations from the mean divided by volatility – of various market factors, such as equity volatilities, Treasury rates, swap spreads, corporate bond swaption-implied volatilities, and structured credit spreads. Citi will make the CLX tradable by using fixed historical values for the mean and volatility parameters, eliminating the need for costly recomputation from lengthy time series.

Monday, February 15th, 2010

Home prices will likely decline another 8% from Q409 to the end of 2010, reversing recent gains in the market, for a 34% peak-to-trough drop, according to a Moody’s report which faults the "underwhelming" success of the government's Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) as the key driver for the assumption.

To be sure, the updated outlook on the extent of pricing collapses are an improvement from last month, when the analysts predicted prices to fall 37% to a bottom in Q310.

Additionally, the S&P/Case-Shiller US house price index showed a 7% growth in home prices in the second and third quarters of 2009. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) also reports that median existing house price losses narrowed 4.1% in Q409 to $172,900, the smallest decline in more than two years. Moody’s analysts, in fact, anticipate house price increases will prevail in the final quarter of 2009, though they expect the growth to end there, dropping 8% through Q410.

Coupled with the first-time homebuyer tax credit, declining sales of distressed property – including foreclosures, deed-in-lieu and short sales – fueled the recent price growth. The Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) kept some of these foreclosures off of the market, as the US Treasury Department continues to push servicers to permanently modify more loans on the verge of foreclosure. But HAMP will only help so many, according to Moody’s.

Servicers participating in HAMP modified roughly 66,000 mortgages through December 2009, far from the Obama Administration goal of 3-to-4m. Moody’s analysts see the program modifying 400,000 to 1m loans. Recently, the House Committee on Government and Oversight Reform launched an investigation into the effectiveness of HAMP.

“The assumption that the program's success will remain underwhelming underpins our unchanged expectations that house prices will further decline,” according to the report. “Many of the loans in the program will fail to convert to a permanent modification and will eventually end up on the market as heavily discounted distress sales.”

Determining the actual amounts and timing of distressed sales, however, is hard to pin down due to sparse data, according to the analysts. There is no authoritative source of data for real estate owned (REO) sales to third parties, which muddies the crystal ball for pricing forecasters. The loans that fail to convert to a permanent modification from the three-month trial period will hit the market at different times, given different moratoriums and clogged foreclosure courts.

Despite HAMP shortcomings, the success of private modification programs from lenders could be underestimated. But analysts still see another drop in prices before the market fully bottoms.

Write to Jon Prior.

Monday, February 15th, 2010

Brookfield Asset Management is expanding its real estate holdings in major U.S. cities, including Dallas and Tampa.

The company announced that its real estate distress fund, Brookfield Real Estate Opportunity Fund, had purchased 16 office properties with 2.9 million square feet from JPMorgan Chase for $200 million U.S.

The properties were inherited by JPMorgan when they acquired financial services firms like Bear Stearns Co. and the banking operations of Washington Mutual.

Monday, February 15th, 2010

There is an emerging consensus among financial experts and policy makers that the key to successful modifications is to reduce the amount of the borrower’s loan balance, rather than merely reducing the monthly payment. The goal is to lower the payment while restoring equity, thus giving borrowers both the means and the incentive to keep up with their payments.

Administration officials have resisted that approach, in part because they believe it would be too expensive. Another obstacle is the lenders themselves. In general, a lender is unwilling to take losses by reducing principal unless the owners of the second mortgage on a home also take a hit. For banks that own the second mortgages, such losses would be huge — something they clearly would prefer not to face up to.

Monday, February 15th, 2010

While Freddie's funding needs are expected to be a relatively modest $10 billion to $20 billion, Fannie would need to raise about $60 billion, according to analysts at Barclays Capital.

Most of the debt will be issued as discount notes, which are short-term debt securities that are sold at a discount to their nominal value and mature at face value, Citi analysts said in a note. The government-sponsored enterprises typically use discount notes to raise cash quickly.

Fannie, however, is also likely to tap the debt market with notes that mature between two years and 10 years, analysts said.

"Renewed debt issuance–which will be well short of that $200 billion total–will re-energize domestic money-manager interest in the debt market," Jim Vogel, senior vice president at FTN Financial, wrote in a note. "It had been flagging since the fourth quarter of last year. We see better liquidity and more trading opportunities as a result."



Origination/Lending
Kenneth Bacon, executive vice president of the Fannie Mae multifamily mortgage business, is retiring after 18 years at the mortgage...

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Servicing/Default
The serious delinquency rate for Federal Housing Administration mortgages reached 9.6% in December, the highest level in more than two...

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