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Archive for February, 2010

Thursday, February 18th, 2010

Minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) January meeting show that although members unanimously agreed on the need to shrink reserves, division remains over how and when to dispose of mortgage assets as the voices of concern on impending inflation are rising to a chorus.

In January, the FOMC said the Federal Reserve is on track to buy $1.25trn agency mortgage-backed-securities (MBS) from Freddie Mac (FRE: 0.00 N/A), Fannie Mae (FNM: 0.00 N/A) and Ginnie Mae by the end of Q110. The Fed has continued to slow MBS purchases ahead of a targeted March 31 completion date, to prepare the private investment market to step back into a leading demand role.

Fed chairman Ben Bernanke said last week a series of policy wind-down methods are being tested. The Fed may first drain excess reserves built up over many months through extraordinary asset-purchase programs, and then begin to raise the target for the federal funds rate. Or the Fed could pursue both options simultaneous to facilitate a quicker exit.

FOMC members echoed these plans to exit the Fed's accommodation policies. Among the options discussed was selling mortgage securities before they mature, which would not only shrink the supply of reserve balances, but also the Fed's balance sheet.

Most members favored "some extent" of reserve draining before raising the target federal funds rate from its current 0-0.25% range, although several members thought draining operations might be seen as a precursor to tightening and should only be used soon before an increase in the target rate.

Members were "unanimous" on the need to shrink the supply of reserve balances and the Fed's balance sheet significantly over time, possibly through redeeming and not replacing agency debt and MBS as the securities mature or prepay.

Members disagreed on asset sales, with most favoring gradual sales at some point in the future and others expressing concerned that the sales could disrupt the market in a time when economic recovery is not yet self-sustaining.

Several members favored selling assets sooner to shrink the Fed's balance sheet in a more fast and predictable way than simply redeeming maturing securities and not reinvesting prepayments.

"[T]hey judged that a program of asset sales spread over a number of years would underscore the Committee's determination to exit from the period of exceptionally accommodating monetary policy in a manner and at a pace that would keep inflation contained without having large effects on asset prices or market interest rates," FOMC said in the minutes from the January meeting, released Wednesday.

Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank president and CEO Charles Plosser this week voiced his support for selling assets.

"I would favor our beginning to sell some of the agency mortgage-backed securities from our portfolio rather than relying only on redemptions of these assets," he said in a speech. "Doing so would help extricate the Fed from the realm of fiscal policy and housing finance."

Other FOMC members suggested a compromise, adjusting the pace of asset sales – and potentially purchases – over time as market conditions demand.

The FOMC did not make any policy decisions regarding asset sales, but it did decide to keep the target for the federal funds rate at the 0-0.25% range.

Kansas Federal Reserve Bank president Thomas Hoenig voted against keeping the rates so low "for an extended period," suggesting instead to keep rates low "for some time," giving the FOMC flexibility to begin raising rates modestly.

He indicate that "under these improving conditions, maintaining short-term interest rates near zero for an extended period of time would lay the groundwork for future financial imbalances and risk an increase in inflation expectations," according to the minutes.

And inflation on wholesale prices looks to be rising already, with the Producer Price Index coming in 1.4% higher in January on energy costs, which soared 6.9% from December, according to the latest from the Bureaur of Labor Statistics. Unemployment claims look to be rising in February, with initial unemployment insurance claims coming in 31,000 higher than the previous week, to 473,000 in the week ending February 13, according to the US Department of Labor.

The prolonged high unemployment and under-employment rates are adding to the wave of poor mortgage payment performance and foreclosure. Some media reports are going so far as to suggest a "perfect storm" of unemployment and foreclosure is pressuring homeless rates in rural and suburban America.

Write to Diana Golobay.

Thursday, February 18th, 2010

Senate Republicans led by Richard Shelby are drafting an alternative to financial-regulation legislation that Senator Christopher Dodd is developing after bipartisan talks collapsed this month, two Shelby aides said.

Shelby’s plan will likely aim to create a consumer protection unit within a new bank regulator instead of the standalone agency sought by Dodd and President Barack Obama, said the aides, who requested anonymity because the talks are private. It would shield taxpayers from costs of unwinding systemically important failed financial firms, the aides said.

Thursday, February 18th, 2010

Mortgage lending in the UK dropped sharply in January owing to a hangover from the rush to buy homes before the stamp duty holiday ended, lenders say.

Gross lending for home loans fell by 32% compared with December to £9.1bn [US$14.17bn], the Council of Mortgage Lenders said.

It suggested the decline was due in part to the threshold for paying stamp duty rising at the start of 2010.

Thursday, February 18th, 2010

In testimony to the Senate Budget Committee the other day, [Donald Marron, visiting professor with the Georgetown Public Policy Institute] recommended that Congress set specific fiscal targets for bringing our out-of-control deficits and debt under control. [His] particular suggestion? Get the publicly-held debt down to 60% of GDP in 2020.

By budgeting  standards, that makes for a great bumper sticker: “60 in 20“.

But as the New York Times points out in two articles today, a measurable target isn’t enough. You also need to make sure that the government doesn’t game the accounting to hide its liabilities.

Thursday, February 18th, 2010

The French bank expects results to recover in 2010 with lower bad risk write-downs after it rattled markets last month with a toxic asset warning.

Societe Generale has had to trim back much of its previously-booming investment banking activities after taking bigger hits than many of its rivals from the global credit crisis.

France's second-biggest listed bank on Thursday reported fourth-quarter net profit of 221 million euros ($303.4 million), up from 87 million a year earlier and ahead of a consensus forecast of 150 million euros, but below its third-quarter net profit of 426 million euros.

Thursday, February 18th, 2010

[Update 1: Adds GGP response]

The ongoing saga between rival shopping mall real estate investment trusts (REITs) Simon Property Group (SPG: 136.69 +0.12%) and General Growth Properties (GGP: 15.96 +0.19%) continued, as Simon Property issued a second public letter to GGP.

“Time is passing and General Growth is inappropriately speculating with creditors' money — the company's high leverage means not only that equity value could be destroyed by relatively small market movements, but that the value of the unsecured debt is also at risk,” Simon Property CEO David Simon said in a letter to GGP CEO Adam Metz.

Indianapolis-based Simon Property made a $10bn offer to acquire Chicago-based GGP on February 8. After the company said it had not received a substantive response from GGP, it released a public letter Tuesday to the GGP board outlining the offer, which includes $7bn in cash or stock to resolve GGP’s unsecured debt and $9 per share to GGP shareholders.

GGP responded by rejecting Simon Property’s offer, calling it “not sufficient,” and instead chose to stay the course of its Chapter 11 reorganization plans, which includes soliciting offers from potential buyers and a possible capital raise.

In his latest letter, Simon reiterated the position that his company’s offer was the best option for GGP’s creditors. The committee representing the GGP creditors publicly announced its support of the Simon Property offer.

“[O]ur offer would remove the serious downside risks associated with a recapitalization, the value of which would be inherently uncertain and subject to future market conditions, even if a recapitalization could be secured,” Simon said in his letter. “Given the clear risks of pursuing an alternative plan, the current state of the retail industry and your company's past history of risky financial choices, your lack of urgency should deeply concern creditors and shareholders.”

“While you pay lip service to time being of the essence, the ‘process’ outlined in your letter will take many months before a transaction could be agreed and made available to stakeholders,” he added.

Late Thursday, Metz responded to Simon's latest missive with his own public letter.

“As we have previously stated, our objective is to maximize value for the company and its stakeholders and we are engaging in a process that is intended to accomplish that result in an expeditious manner. Understandably, your objectives are not aligned with ours. We hope you will, nonetheless, participate in our process,” Metz said.

Simon Property isn’t GGP’s only potential buyer. Toronto-based Brookfield Properties (BPO: 17.47 -0.80%) and Vornado Realty Trust (VNO: 81.02 -0.15%) have both been linked as potential buyers of GGP’s portfolio of 200 malls. Brookfield has been on a capital raising frenzy, and began purchasing GGP debt late last year.

But in the letter, Simon encouraged GGP to reconsider Simon Property’s offer.

“We are unwilling to waste our time and resources in a process not conducted on a level playing field, that is dragged out to provide an unfair advantage to any party, or that will serve any agenda other than maximizing return for General Growth's stakeholders — while also minimizing the risk and uncertainty of needlessly extending the bankruptcy proceedings,” Simon said. “Accordingly, we urge you not to pursue another proposal that you might receive, whether before or after the commencement of your process — as you threaten in your letter — without also substantively engaging with us.”

Press contacts at GGP did not immediately respond to HousingWire's request for comment.

Write to Austin Kilgore.

The author held no relevant investments.

Thursday, February 18th, 2010

Doug Criscitello became the new chief financial officer of the US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) this week.

In addition to overseeing HUD finances and preparing the budget, Criscitello will be in charge of establishing systems to handle the millions of transactions every year that support HUD projects. John Cox, the last CFO left HUD with the prior Administration as part of the transition, according to a HUD spokesperson.

The HUD 2011 budget proposal dropped 5% below the budget in 2010 to $41.6bn after increasing annually Federal Housing Administration (FHA) insurance premiums by 50 bps to 2.25% earlier this month.

Criscitello arrived at HUD from PricewaterhouseCoopers where he helped establish a public sector financial services practice. He was executive director at JPMorgan Securities, where he provided advisory services to US government agencies on investment banking and finances.

"Doug is very well known and highly-respected for his government service and his work in the banking and financial services sector, and we are very happy to welcome him to the Department," said HUD Secretary Shaun Donovan. "He brings a broad base of experience to the table, and we have no doubt our Agency and those we serve will benefit greatly from his insights and his expertise in a wide range of financial topics."

Criscitello landed at HUD at a time of significant housing challenges that will call for some adaption. HUD launched the Office of Sustainable Housing and Communities (OSHC) to connect housing with job creation through new grant programs.

“I want to help optimize HUD’s budget while also building trust by enhancing official and public understanding of our expenditures,” Criscitello said.

Write to Jon Prior.

Thursday, February 18th, 2010

Brian Lynch is the founder and president of California -based Advantage Systems, a provider of accounting and contract management tools for the mortgage banking and real estate development industries. With more than 30 years of experience in the accounting industry, Lynch founded Advantage Systems in 1986 and changed the company’s focus to the mortgage industry in 1991 with the creation of Accounting for Mortgage Bankers (AMB), an accounting system tailored to the loan-level metrics needs of mortgage bankers. He sat down with HousingWire to let you know how originators are going to survive the warehouse-lending drought.

Warehouse lending is drying up. If you were to compare what warehouse lending was like before the financial crisis hit to where it is now? How striking is the contrast?

It’s no secret that warehouse lending has taken a significant hit during this economic downturn. In regards to the difference, as Donald Trump might say, "Its Huge!" According to the Warehouse Lending Project’s Web site, the number of active warehouse lenders declined from a 2005 peak of more than 115, to fewer than 30 today. The total aggregate capacity of warehouse lending credit has declined to about $25 billion, down nearly 90% from the level reported in 2007. Those are most certainly industry-changing numbers.

Where did it all go?

Most warehouse lenders were left holding the proverbial bag when the “Meltdown” began. Some were taken over by larger banks from Countrywide to Bank of America, Wamu to JP Morgan Chase, National City to PNC, but many warehouse lenders were forced to close their doors. There is very high risk associated with warehouse lending and the remaining banks have been slow to take on that risk.

What's happening to those originators cut-off from these lines of credit?

The lack of warehouse lending is hitting the independent mortgage banker more so than the broker. Brokers have their own series of problems: the HVCC is eliminating their control of the appraisal; they have basically lost their ability to charge a Yield Spread Premium, making it difficult to compete against lenders who still can; and many banks are shying away from broker originated business all together.

Independent mortgage bankers are finding it difficult to secure adequate warehouse lines, which directly affects the amount of loans they can originate. Even when a mortgage banker obtains a line, he or she can expect higher fees and much greater review by the warehouse lender. Where in the past, the warehouse lender may have been satisfied with quarterly financial reports, today these are expected on a monthly basis and those financials will be reviewed with much greater scrutiny than in previous years. Loans that stay on the line for more than 45 days won’t just be curtailed as in the past. Instead, the mortgage banker will be asked to buy back the loan in full.

So, is there any hope for them to grow a business?

Brokers have entered survival mode and many have found that becoming a branch of a larger mortgage lender is the best way to stay afloat. In the last two years, we have seen explosive growth in the branch networks of our lender clients, evidenced by the fact that the Web-based branch reporting tool within our Accounting for Mortgage Bankers (AMB) system has seen over 64% growth since Q408.

By becoming a branch of a larger lender, the former broker gains access to both lending capital and operating capital. He or she also benefits from the investment in technology made by the mortgage lender. Those mortgage bankers that have survived are growing. They’re making significant investments in technology to improve compliance and minimize head count. AMB streamlines the relationship between broker and lender by putting up-to-date branch reports at the branch manager’s fingertips. By eliminating the hassle of compiling this data, experienced brokers and originators are able to originate loans without having the responsibility of managing the operational side of the business, while adding to the growth of the lender. It’s a win-win situation.

When do you see warehouse lending making a return? And, perhaps more importantly, from whom?

Every time I pick up a different periodical in the industry I see that some bank is thinking about, or attempting to enter, or re-enter the warehouse space. One day it’s "National City is in," and the next it’s, "no they’re still out." "Met Life is in, maybe." There was a rumor that Chase was getting in. To date, the field of warehouse lenders remains small and will probably stay that way for the foreseeable future. It is encouraging that many Tier 1 banks have been able to pay back their TARP money. While the move may be more for their own control and bottom line, it also suggests that they no longer need those funds, which may suggest that those banks at least have the wherewithal to get back into the warehouse lending arena.

Thursday, February 18th, 2010

After mortgages rates cracked below 5% last week, rates declined even further this week, according to Freddie Mac’s (FRE: 0.00 N/A) weekly survey.

The average interest for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) was 4.93% with an average 0.7 origination point for the week ending February 18, compared to last week’s average of 4.97%. A year ago, the average rate was 5.04%.

“Mortgage rates eased for the second week, while economic data releases suggest that the housing market may be in a slow state of recovery,” said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist.

Bankrate.com’s survey or large banks and thrifts put the average rate for a 30-year FRM at 5.15% with an average 0.44 origination point, unchanged from a week ago.

Freddie Mac put the average rate for a 15-year FRM at 4.33% with an average 0.6 point, down from last week’s rate of 4.34% and last year’s rate of 4.68%. Bankrate.com put the average rate for a 15-year FRM 4.52% with a 0.44 point, down from last week’s rate of 4.55%.

The five-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 4.12% with an average 0.5 point, down from last week’s rate of 4.19% and last year’s 5.04%, Freddie said. Bankrate.com’s survey put the average rate for a five-year ARM at 4.56% with an average 0.44 point, unchanged from last week. Freddie said the one-year ARM averaged 4.23% with an average 0.6 point, down from last week’s rate of 4.33% and a year ago, when the rate was 4.8%.

Write to Austin Kilgore.

The author held no relevant investments.

Thursday, February 18th, 2010

Global bank HSBC Group (HBC: 42.59 +0.97%) is moving ahead with plans to purchase more properties in Boston, New York City and Washington DC, after its acquisition of a skyscraper in the nation's capital from Brookfield Properties, and is bringing in a new head of real estate to help it do so cautiously.

The alternative investment division of HSBC (HAIL), a subsection called Real Estate Fund Management, will now be lead by industry veteran Paul Forshaw, who will be based in London and who will report to Chris Allen, the CEO who oversees the hedge fund activities of the bank.

Forshaw will be responsible for devising and implementing real estate strategy, with 14 years experience in property investment and funding, half of that as a director at CBRE.

Prior to joining HSBC, he was part of a small team responsible for real estate proprietary investment at Kaupthing Investment Bank, investing joint venture equity on a global basis in the UK, US and emerging markets.

Commenting on the new hire, Allen said: "As a top five global provider of hedge funds with around US$31 billion of hedge fund assets under management, property is an increasingly important alternative asset class for us," he said. "This senior hire reflects our commitment."

HSBC is still a cautious player in the commercial property investment market. According to the bank, the widespread disposal of "distressed assets" largely anticipated in the CRE space is not materializing as expected. Furthermore pricing is growing more and more competitive as the debt markets to fund purchases is easing and rental declines are slowing in the aforementioned areas.

In a statement from HSBC on its evolving CRE strategy, the banks states: "Our search will initially be in key global cities to include London, Washington DC, New York and Boston where we can work with experienced local partners to acquire assets in off-market situations. We are also continuing to explore emerging markets where we see demand from our clients."

HAIL is particularly pleased with its purchase in Washington as it is considered iconic, being only three blocks from the White House overlooking Franklin Square. Indeed, the trend HousingWire sources see, is a great deal of demand from German and South Korean investors who are more interested in properties "with names attached, not street address," as one source said in a phone interview yesterday.

In a release, HAIL states: "We have been able to negotiate the purchase at a significant discount to replacement cost, despite the fact that it is located in one of the most stable and secure office markets in the world. We are anticipating offering a very attractive IRR to our investors over a 5-7 year hold period."

HSBC joins Morgan Stanley as another large global CRE investors that is putting new faces in charge of its US operations. 30-year veteran John Klopp joined the firm as head of Americas real estate investing and global real estate debt investing beginning this month.

Write to Jacob Gaffney.



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