Archive for February, 2010
The Obama administration is set to renew its push for higher capital requirements for banks at home and internationally as the main thrust of regulatory reform – a strategy that could get round the gridlock in Congress.
Washington's emphasis on capital has met resistance from some European countries and Japan. After last year's stress tests and forced capital raisings, some US institutions look healthier than their overseas counterparts.
A gruelling debate inside the Senate banking committee has raised the question of whether Congress can deliver a bill that President Barack Obama would be prepared to sign.
A mortgage crisis like the one that has devastated homeowners is enveloping the nation's office and retail buildings, and few places are likely to be hit as hard as Washington.
The foreclosure wave is likely to swamp many smaller community banks across the country, and many well-known properties, including Washington's Mayflower Hotel and the Boulevard at the Capital Centre in Largo, are at risk, industry analysts say.
The new round of financial pain, which some had anticipated but hoped to avoid, now seems all but certain. "There's been an enormous bubble in commercial real estate, and it has to come down," said Elizabeth Warren, chairman of the Congressional Oversight Panel, the watchdog created by Congress to monitor the financial bailout.
Can living near a train station save your house?
Researchers looked at mortgage defaults in three cities and found something curious — the chance of foreclosure is higher in neighborhoods more dependent on cars, according to a report by the Natural Resources Defense Council, which included data from Chicago's Center for Neighborhood Technology. The report examined 40,000 mortgages in Chicago, Jacksonville and San Francisco.
The link became more obvious in looking at foreclosures after July 2008, when gas spiked over $4 a gallon, said CNT President Scott Bernstein, who studied foreclosures in the Chicago area. Bernstein found that gas price spikes provide an "early warning" of a rise in foreclosures in car-dependent communities.
Studies keep showing what we have known for a long time: Fighting foreclosures is a futile — and counter-productive — use of resources.
New studies by John Burns Real Estate Consulting and Standard & Poor’s Financial Services conclude that loan mod efforts only serve to delay the inevitable, resulting in future foreclosures.
The credit bubble allowed home buyers to get in over their heads, to buy more house than they could afford. Once prices came down and the refi pipeline closed down, it was game over for many of these buyers.
The Federal Reserve Board raised the discount rate charged to banks for direct loans by a quarter point to 0.75 percent and said the move will encourage financial institutions to rely more on money markets rather than the central bank for short-term liquidity needs.
“These changes are intended as a further normalization of the Federal Reserve’s lending facilities,” the central bank said today in a statement. “The modifications are not expected to lead to tighter financial conditions for households and businesses and do not signal any change in the outlook for the economy or for monetary policy.”
If there is one thing that gets investors twitchy, it is the fear that China is losing its appetite for US government bonds.
As the biggest and most liquid pool of assets in the world, the US Treasury market lies at the heart of the global financial system and allows the American government to finance its trillion-dollar budget deficits. Until recently, China has been the largest foreign official holder of US debt.
That is why the latest release of Treasury International Capital (Tic) data, showing that China’s holdings of Treasuries fell by a record amount in December, has caused something of a stir.
[Commercial] property prices have fallen massively – especially the 2006-2008 vintages, which have registered declines of 50% from peak to trough, compared to 30% in the previous CRE crisis in 1990/1991. Many deals which are gradually coming to refinancing have no equity left, while a majority of securitized CMBS deals at least have current cash flows. As a result, [last month's American Securitization Forum 2010] panelists say that a number of cases will be resolved through loan modification/restructuring.
There is strong evidence that the government supports modification initiatives in order to avoid massive forced property sales. For example, one of the measures adopted by the FDIC enables banks to keep loans at par on their balance sheet as long as the cash flows remain current. Extension but also re-remics structures are therefore popular and should continue to be used. Moreover, government programs still have some firepower for buying back deals, with about $25bn still available within the various government support programs. All panelists agreed that delinquencies are still mounting and still far from their peak in the sector. They even mentioned a possible return to the heights of the 1990 crisis, at 12% or higher. On Monday, Moody's Investors Service published its January delinquency index for CRE, which reached 5.42%, up from 4.5% in December.
To understand the possible systemic risk, one important factor is the concentration and standards of CRE loans in the banking sector. FDIC figures show that 350 banks have already failed and around 1,000 banks – mostly regional or small banks – hold current exposure to CRE sector representing 300% of their Tier 1 capital. These entities will clearly experience serious problems. Following the bankruptcy of such entities, panelists expect the FDIC to develop a specific FDIC "legacy asset" securitization program to finance the loans.
They say that this CMBS securitization would be actually quite different from traditional CMBS instruments, as the pools would comprise much smaller loans that those in traditional CMBS structures.
Can the market restart? While aggregation risk (ie the process of ramping up a portfolio before being securitized) is still a major issue, the fundamentals of the new originated loans are much stronger than those of the pre-crisis securitized pools. This should get the market off to a good start, although on a much smaller scale than previously. Three deals have been issued so far, not enough to build up an index, but as more deals are issued, the development of an index to be used as a hedging tool should enable the market to take a further step towards recovery.
Properties need larger-scale repricing. Losses will be realized as deals change hands, but this will help get the market off to a good start. This process will take place in an orderly manner, as the sector is generally sound – unlike the residential and particularly the subprime market.
Official support is already quite evident and the authorities are committed to a restart of the CMBS market. More support may be needed in the form of an extended TALF program, which borrower advocacy organizations are working on, along with loan modification adjustments.
The restart will however be gradual and the market will be smaller.
Jean-David Cirotteau is an asset-backed securities analyst at Société Générale living in Paris.












