RSS Twitter

Archive for February, 2010

Friday, February 19th, 2010

The Obama administration is set to renew its push for higher capital requirements for banks at home and internationally as the main thrust of regulatory reform – a strategy that could get round the gridlock in Congress.

Washington's emphasis on capital has met resistance from some European countries and Japan. After last year's stress tests and forced capital raisings, some US institutions look healthier than their overseas counterparts.

A gruelling debate inside the Senate banking committee has raised the question of whether Congress can deliver a bill that President Barack Obama would be prepared to sign.

Friday, February 19th, 2010

A mortgage crisis like the one that has devastated homeowners is enveloping the nation's office and retail buildings, and few places are likely to be hit as hard as Washington.

The foreclosure wave is likely to swamp many smaller community banks across the country, and many well-known properties, including Washington's Mayflower Hotel and the Boulevard at the Capital Centre in Largo, are at risk, industry analysts say.

The new round of financial pain, which some had anticipated but hoped to avoid, now seems all but certain. "There's been an enormous bubble in commercial real estate, and it has to come down," said Elizabeth Warren, chairman of the Congressional Oversight Panel, the watchdog created by Congress to monitor the financial bailout.

Friday, February 19th, 2010

Can living near a train station save your house?

Researchers looked at mortgage defaults in three cities and found something curious — the chance of foreclosure is higher in neighborhoods more dependent on cars, according to a report by the Natural Resources Defense Council, which included data from Chicago's Center for Neighborhood Technology. The report examined 40,000 mortgages in Chicago, Jacksonville and San Francisco.

The link became more obvious in looking at foreclosures after July 2008, when gas spiked over $4 a gallon, said CNT President Scott Bernstein, who studied foreclosures in the Chicago area. Bernstein found that gas price spikes provide an "early warning" of a rise in foreclosures in car-dependent communities.

Friday, February 19th, 2010

Studies keep showing what we have known for a long time: Fighting foreclosures is a futile — and counter-productive — use of resources.

New studies by John Burns Real Estate Consulting and Standard & Poor’s Financial Services conclude that loan mod efforts only serve to delay the inevitable, resulting in future foreclosures.

The credit bubble allowed home buyers to get in over their heads, to buy more house than they could afford. Once prices came down and the refi pipeline closed down, it was game over for many of these buyers.

Friday, February 19th, 2010

The Federal Reserve Board raised the discount rate charged to banks for direct loans by a quarter point to 0.75 percent and said the move will encourage financial institutions to rely more on money markets rather than the central bank for short-term liquidity needs.

“These changes are intended as a further normalization of the Federal Reserve’s lending facilities,” the central bank said today in a statement. “The modifications are not expected to lead to tighter financial conditions for households and businesses and do not signal any change in the outlook for the economy or for monetary policy.”

Friday, February 19th, 2010

If there is one thing that gets investors twitchy, it is the fear that China is losing its appetite for US government bonds.

As the biggest and most liquid pool of assets in the world, the US Treasury market lies at the heart of the global financial system and allows the American government to finance its trillion-dollar budget deficits. Until recently, China has been the largest foreign official holder of US debt.

That is why the latest release of Treasury International Capital (Tic) data, showing that China’s holdings of Treasuries fell by a record amount in December, has caused something of a stir.

Friday, February 19th, 2010

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York in the week ending February 17 continued to buy mortgage assets from government-sponsored entities as the program winds-down to a close by the end of the quarter.

The Fed bought a total of $11.3bn in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) – $4.47bn Freddie Mac (FRE: 0.00 N/A) MBS, $3.97bn Fannie Mae (FNM: 0.00 N/A) MBS and $2.85bn Ginnie Mae MBS, according to a summary of purchases. The New York Fed also sold $300m of MBS in the same week, bringing the net purchases to $11bn, the same as last week.

This week’s MBS buys bring net Fed purchases to date to more than $1.19trn, or nearly 96% of the Fed’s $1.25trn buying power, according to weekly commentary by JP Morgan Securities.

The Federal Reserve announced following its January meeting that the purchase program is on track for completion by the end of Q110. Although Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members in January unanimously agreed on the need to shrink the Fed's reserves, division remains over how and when to dispose of mortgage assets as the voices of concern on impending inflation are rising to a chorus.

The Fed has considered extending and expanding asset-purchase programs, including the MBS program, if its exit this quarter is not replaced with private investor demand, causing MBS spreads to treasuries to blow out again.

Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) acting director Edward DeMarco on Thursday indicated private demand will return in the wake of the Fed's exit.

"I also expect that other private parties will begin to invest in new Enterprise mortgage-backed securities as the Federal Reserve gradually withdraws its purchase activity," he said in a speech to Women in Housing and Finance Public Policy Luncheon Thursday (download the speech here).

HousingWire managing director Jacob Gaffney in his weekly column explores the return of the buy-to-hold investor.

Write to Diana Golobay.

Disclosure: The author holds no relevant investment positions.

Friday, February 19th, 2010

[Commercial] property prices have fallen massively – especially the 2006-2008 vintages, which have registered declines of 50% from peak to trough, compared to 30% in the previous CRE crisis in 1990/1991. Many deals which are gradually coming to refinancing have no equity left, while a majority of securitized CMBS deals at least have current cash flows. As a result, [last month's American Securitization Forum 2010] panelists say that a number of cases will be resolved through loan modification/restructuring.

There is strong evidence that the government supports modification initiatives in order to avoid massive forced property sales. For example, one of the measures adopted by the FDIC enables banks to keep loans at par on their balance sheet as long as the cash flows remain current. Extension but also re-remics structures are therefore popular and should continue to be used. Moreover, government programs still have some firepower for buying back deals, with about $25bn still available within the various government support programs. All panelists agreed that delinquencies are still mounting and still far from their peak in the sector. They even mentioned a possible return to the heights of the 1990 crisis, at 12% or higher. On Monday, Moody's Investors Service published its January delinquency index for CRE, which reached 5.42%, up from 4.5% in December.

To understand the possible systemic risk, one important factor is the concentration and standards of CRE loans in the banking sector. FDIC figures show that 350 banks have already failed and around 1,000 banks – mostly regional or small banks – hold current exposure to CRE sector representing 300% of their Tier 1 capital. These entities will clearly experience serious problems. Following the bankruptcy of such entities, panelists expect the FDIC to develop a specific FDIC "legacy asset" securitization program to finance the loans.

They say that this CMBS securitization would be actually quite different from traditional CMBS instruments, as the pools would comprise much smaller loans that those in traditional CMBS structures.

Can the market restart? While aggregation risk (ie the process of ramping up a portfolio before being securitized) is still a major issue, the fundamentals of the new originated loans are much stronger than those of the pre-crisis securitized pools. This should get the market off to a good start, although on a much smaller scale than previously. Three deals have been issued so far, not enough to build up an index, but as more deals are issued, the development of an index to be used as a hedging tool should enable the market to take a further step towards recovery.

Properties need larger-scale repricing. Losses will be realized as deals change hands, but this will help get the market off to a good start. This process will take place in an orderly manner, as the sector is generally sound – unlike the residential and particularly the subprime market.

Official support is already quite evident and the authorities are committed to a restart of the CMBS market. More support may be needed in the form of an extended TALF program, which borrower advocacy organizations are working on, along with loan modification adjustments.

The restart will however be gradual and the market will be smaller.

Jean-David Cirotteau is an asset-backed securities analyst at Société Générale living in Paris.

Friday, February 19th, 2010

Real estate investment trust (REIT) Starwood Property Trust (STWD: 19.71 +0.31%) is buying a $503m portfolio of performing commercial mortgages from financial services firm Teachers Insurance and Annuity Association, College Retirement Equities Fund (TIAA-CREF).

Starwood, which specializes in originating and investing in commercial real estate mortgages and related debt investments, said on Friday it will pay about $510m, plus accrued interest, under the terms of the agreement. The acquisitions is expected to close by the end of February 2010.

"The focus of our investments is safety and yield, and this investment's high debt yield and relatively short duration should allow us to reinvest capital as the loans mature or provide a built in pipeline of originations," said Starwood CEO Barry Sternlicht, in a press statement.

The fixed-rate portfolio, which has a targeted levered return between 11% and 13%, consists of 18 senior first mortgage A-notes and two junior first mortgage B-notes. Retail and office assets – about 96% occupied – across 10 states secure the notes.

The portfolio bears a 17.7% weighted average debt yield, with a weighted average remaining term of 1.7 years and a weighted average coupon of 7.75%. The debt service ratio on the portfolio is approximately 1.8x.

"Almost 20% of this portfolio will mature within one year and as such these assets are an extremely attractive alternative for cash," Sternlicht said. "They also can be modified, extended or rolled into new term debt and can be levered short term if, necessary."

He added that, after the acquisition, Starwood will have invested about $800m of the capital raised in August. As HousingWire previously reported, the REIT raised $952m from its public and private offerings.

In January, Starwood originated $107.8m in three first mortgages for hotel and retail properties and invested about $32m in single-borrower commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS).

Write to Diana Golobay.

Disclosure: The author holds no relevant investment positions.

Friday, February 19th, 2010

Interactive Mortgage Advisors (IMA) is facilitating the sale of a $196m Fannie Mae (FNM: 0.00 N/A) and Freddie Mac (FRE: 0.00 N/A) bulk servicing portfolio on behalf of an undisclosed seller, a wholesale mortgage company, according to an offering obtained by HousingWire.

The offering covers 1,152 loans with a combined principal balance of more than $195.85m. The loans bear a weighted average interest rate of 4.98% and a weighted average service fee of 0.26%. The loans are 94% owner-occupied by loan count, 3% second homes and 3% investment homes.

Two of the loans (0.17% of the portfolio by loan count) are delinquent – by only 30 days – and single other loan (0.09% of the portfolio) is in foreclosure.

Nearly half – 46% – of the loans were cash-out refinances, while 35% were no-cash refis. Another 18% of the loans were purchases and the remainder were property improvement refis. Most were third-party originations by community banks.

IMA said written bids on the portfolio are due by 2 p.m. EST on March 2, 2010. The seller prefers the buyer to be able to complete due diligence and complete the purchase agreement in time for a March 31, 2010 sale date.

The IMA offering marks the latest in a round of asset sales that are kicking off the new year. The firm in January said it was selling a $130m Ginnie Mae bulk servicing portfolio of 937 loans that were at the time 16.4% delinquent by count.

Carlton Advisory Services recently said it would sell a $370m portfolio of non-performing loans and real estate-owned (REO) assets. Clark Street Capital’s Bank Asset Network is also selling a $200m portfolio of both performing and non-performing loans.

Write to Diana Golobay.

Disclosure: The author holds no relevant investment positions.



Origination/Lending
Kenneth Bacon, executive vice president of the Fannie Mae multifamily mortgage business, is retiring after 18 years at the mortgage...

Read More »

Servicing/Default
The serious delinquency rate for Federal Housing Administration mortgages reached 9.6% in December, the highest level in more than two...

Read More »