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Archive for January, 2010

Thursday, January 21st, 2010

Despite increasing pressure to take more aggressive steps to keep troubled borrowers in their homes, the Obama administration said Wednesday that it had no immediate plans to alter its foreclosure-prevention program by increasing its reliance on reducing loan balances.

The administration's statement came as attorneys general and banking regulators in 14 states warned that policy makers needed to do more to stem the tide of foreclosures.

The Obama program, announced in February as a cornerstone of the administration's efforts to stabilize the housing market, has been running into increasing criticism as delinquencies have mounted.

Thursday, January 21st, 2010

In Fort Mill, a city of 10,000 residents about 20 miles south of Charlotte, N.C., local leaders saw the subprime-mortgage industry as a way to help retool the economy from its withered roots in the textile industry. But more than 700 jobs at Senderra, HSBC Holdings PLC and other mortgage operations that popped up during the housing bubble have since disappeared or moved away.

Unemployment in Lancaster County, where Senderra got a tax break as a job-creation incentive, hit 18% in November, the latest month for which figures are available. The U.S. unemployment rate was 10% in December.

Thursday, January 21st, 2010

President Obama plans to propose new limits Thursday on the size and investments of large banks, a senior administration official said, as the White House intensifies its push to reframe its financial reform agenda as an effort to rein in the companies widely blamed for causing the economic crisis.

Although the details of the new proposal could not be learned, the president plans to announce a series of measures aimed at limiting the risks that large banks can take, according to the official, who spoke before the formal announcement on condition of anonymity.

Thursday, January 21st, 2010

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Wednesday received requests for $1.45bn of government loans to buy securities backed by commercial mortgages.

The requests arrived through the Federal Reserve's Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF) for new and existing – or "legacy" – commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS).

The Fed initiated the TALF program to stimulate lending by allowing private investors to purchase securities with a matching government investment. The reach of the program into legacy CMBS aimed to aid price discovery and provide liquidity for the commercial mortgage market, which faces a credit crisis of its own.

Wednesday's subscription date brought requests under the legacy branch of the CMBS TALF. The facility for newly issued CMBS remained quiet this month, indicating the market for new issuance remains slow. The Fed previously received requests for nearly $72.25m of loans for new CMBS in November.

In addition to the slow-down on the new issue side, requests under the CMBS TALF for legacy securities also appear to be in decline in recent months, with only $1.3bn of requests for legacy CMBS – and only $1.28bn of those requests settled – for the Dec. 14, 2009 subscription date. The Fed also received requests for $1.4bn – and settled $1.3bn of loans – in November. This compares with $2.1bn of requests and $1.9bn of loans settled in October.

The most recent subscription, which is expected to close January 28th, offered two loan types: a fixed 3-year loan at nearly 2.8%, which matures on Jan. 28, 2013, and  a fixed 5-year loan at 3.7%, which matures on Jan. 28, 2015.

The subscription closed within hours of Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC) chairman Sheila Bair, in comments delivered at the Commercial Mortgage Securities Association’s (CMSA) annual conference, emphasizing the need to revive the commercial real estate and CMBS markets. Key among the first steps to a once again vibrant CMBS market is restoring investor confidence in CMBS and the broader banking system.

"I believe it is appropriate to set high qualitative standards for insured institutions, given their federal backing through insured deposits," Bair said. "And if investors respond by being more willing to invest in securities backed bank-originated loans, it is win-win for everyone.”

Write to Diana Golobay.

Wednesday, January 20th, 2010

Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC) chairman Sheila Bair addressed several concerns of the commercial mortgage industry Wednesday with statements made at the Commercial Mortgage Securities Association's (CMSA) annual conference.

Bair not only emphasized the need to revive the market for commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – acknowledging "CMBS is different from residential MBS" – but she also invited the feedback of commercial mortgage industry professionals.

CMSA for months has raised alarm over "one-size-fits-all" regulatory reform applied to both CMBS and RMBS. CMSA executive committee member Christopher Hoeffel in October indicated he does not oppose reforms, but urged lawmakers to tailor reforms to address the needs of various asset classes.

Bair, in her comments Wednesday, reviewed the differences of the commercial real estate industry's slow-down, compared with residential. The commercial slow-down came later than that in residential finance, but it led to a similar freeze of credit and a virtual shut-down of new securitization.

A key challenge facing the industry remains restarting securitization and sound underwriting. Bair said one measure the FDIC took to promote stability of the system was the establishment of a safe harbor protection of assets being transferred for securitizations. The safe harbor protects failed bank assets in transfer from being seized by FDIC, so long as an accounting sale took place.

But Bair noted the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) adopted financial accounting standards that mean most securitizations no longer meet off-balance sheet standards for sale treatment: "As a result, most securitizations will not meet the test in the FDIC regulation unless we amend that rule."

Then FDIC approved a transitional safe harbor for securitizations to clarify circumstances where FDIC could treat a transfer as a sale. This also grandfathered all securitizations or participations in process through March 31, 2010. The FDIC now considers what standards should be applied for safe harbor treatment for transactions created after March 31st.

FDIC proposed conditions for a regulatory safe harbor that aims to correct the weakness of securitization that contributed to the crisis, as well as align securitization incentives to support sustainable lending, Bair said. She added the FDIC is anticipating comments from the commercial mortgage industry around whether the proposals would achieve such objectives.

"We need your input," she said in her prepared speech.

The market will not return without a revival of investor confidence in bank-originated securitizations, Bair said, adding comments from the "buy side" will help regulators facilitate this recovery.

"We are working with other regulators to achieve consistent regulatory reforms that will help prevent the arbitrage between different types of lenders and different types of securitizers," Bair said. "That said, I believe it is appropriate to set high qualitative standards for insured institutions, given their federal backing through insured deposits. And if investors respond by being more willing to invest in securities backed bank-originated loans, it is win-win for everyone."

Bair's comments came as another government facility to stimulate credit in the commercial mortgage industry drew to a close.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility for CMBS on Wednesday afternoon closed another day of requests for loans to buy CMBS assets.

The Federal Reserve initiated the TALF program to stimulate lending by allowing private investors to purchase securities with a matching government investment. The reach of the program into legacy CMBS aimed to aid price discovery and provide liquidity for the commercial mortgage market, which faces a credit crisis of its own.

The Fed in October received requests for $2.12bn of government loans for legacy CMBS. So far, the CMBS TALF for new-issue CMBS has seen relatively little activity.

Write to Diana Golobay.

Wednesday, January 20th, 2010

Barclays Capital (BarCap) downgraded its investment rating of the real estate investment trust (REIT) sector to 2-neutral from a 1-positive rating, amid concerns that earnings growth won’t come until 2011 and that REITs may appear less attractive than other investment alternatives.

But the REIT universe is diverse and while BarCap downgraded the industry as a whole and four individual REITs, it did upgrade its ratings on three REITs in research released Wednesday.

Sector-by-sector, BarCap upgraded multifamily from negative to neutral, while maintaining neutral views on office, regional malls and shopping centers and maintaining a positive view on industrial.

BarCap said while the threat of insolvency by most REITs has subsided, earnings will decline to a trough in 2010 before inflect positively in 2011.

“If insolvency is off the table, then relative valuation and, by extension, earnings, matter; the question is whether there will be sufficient growth to justify current valuations,” analysts wrote. “Our estimates imply a 7.3% decline in [cash available for distribution] CAD in 2010, following a 21.3% expected decline in 2009. Meanwhile, consensus expectations are for S&P 500 earnings to be up 27.3% in 2010.”

But BarCap projects REITs will come out of the current downturn with a greater absolute market share, citing a trend of a growing distinction between real estate broadly and publicly traded real estate, “and further between those REITs with access to capital and growth potential and those that are more challenged,” the research said, resulting in an uptick in the number of companies seeking to go public.

The analysts did project, however, that the REITs in its coverage universe will offer a 12-month total return potential of roughly 7.2%. “In our view, then, it will be extremely important in 2010 to differentiate among REITs on the basis of management team, portfolio quality and geography, financial flexibility, embedded growth, and opportunity set,” the analysts wrote. “We continue to believe that investing in REITs will be more of a stock-picking than a sector-picking game.”

Write to Austin Kilgore.

Wednesday, January 20th, 2010

HSBC chief executive Michael Geoghegan said it would be a "terrible shame" if the nation lost out to competing nations because of Government interference.

"I think when you start moving taxation for political reasons, the trouble is, it's an industry that can move," he said.

"I know a large number of bankers are moving out of the UK. They can move because they have opportunities in Switzerland and other places to set up their business.

"I do believe we should have a robust financial services industry here in the UK because the City has all the rights to win.

Wednesday, January 20th, 2010

The start of 2010 is showing signs of growing investor demand in U.S. commercial real estate, and potentially in related secondary markets, despite the lagging performance of underlying collateral. The pick-up is also predicted to be mirrored in similar markets in Europe and Asia, areas expected to see comparatively better performance relative to the ailing U.S. market.

In a report from the rating agency Moody’s Investors Service, analysts project some pick-up in commercial real estate (CRE) demand after Q409, which would help markets after little movement for much of the year.

A majority of the commercial sectors, 51%, remain in poor-performing status in Q409, according to the report–but Moody's notes that number is down from 53% in the previous quarter. All but hotels showed improvements from Q309, but despite the gain, all sectors but multifamily continue to hold at a medium performance.

The five best markets in the US, as ranked in the report are: Honolulu, Las Vegas, Pittsburgh, Newark and Raleigh. The five worst: Detroit, Phoenix, Atlanta, Charlotte and Indianapolis.

The credit rating agency Fitch had a bleaker outlook for commercial real estate, when it reported that the amount delinquencies in commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) reached 4.71% at the end of 2009 and could climb as high as 12% at the end of 2012.

A report from the mortgage-data provider, Trepp, had the delinquency rate for CMBS above 6% in December 2009, and data from the credit-rating agency Realpoint showed a delinquent unpaid balance in CMBS climbing 16% in November 2009 to $37.93bn.

On a global scale, US commercial property lags behind. A report from the financial services provider Credit Suisse claims that capital values are currently bottoming in many global markets, and CRE valuations “look appealing” as initial property to government bond yield spreads remain high worldwide.

“Total returns turn positive considerably before rents find a floor since rental yields are always positive and may offset negative rental developments. This is especially true in times of high initial yields such as today,” according to the Credit Suisse report. “We therefore think that the year 2010 can finally mark a turning point for global direct commercial real estate investments.”

While demand is growing in US markets, it remains behind Western Europe and Asia, which posted positive returns. According to the report, structural adjustments in the consumer sector, weak occupancy and foreclosure sales caused by refinancing problems continue to hold back US CRE. Prime office vacancies rose 15% in every major city, according to the report.

But, according to Credit Suisse, there are some opportunities in the US. Average CRE prices declined by 40% since the middle of 2007 but stabilized to pre-bubble levels. Bargain prices could attract foreign investors like the Bank of China, which, according to the Financial Times, is actively seeking property in New York, Los Angeles and San Francisco. The Bank provided $120m for the New York Time building near Times Square.

This demand echoes a recent survey by the Association of Foreign Investors in Real Estate (AFIRE), which showed that 51% of respondents targeted US properties in 2009. In a sign of growing demand, the percentage increased from 37% in 2008.

Investors in the US are starting to sense an improvement on the way in 2010. John Levy, the founder of John B. Levy & Company, the real estate investment banking firm, said that 2009 started out with "Armageddon trade," when predictions of a banking system collapse were prevalent. But, he said, the mood in 2010 has changed.

"The rebirth of the CMBS market is absolutely going to happen this year,” Levy said. “Last year, we had three CMBS deals, and that was three more than anyone predicted. The CMBS market in 2010 won’t resemble the one we knew and loved in 2007, but we will see a rebirth with reasonable and rational underwriting. I even think we’ll see the first multi-borrower CMBS deal this year.”

Write to Jon Prior.

Wednesday, January 20th, 2010

The House Financial Services Subcommittee on Housing and Community Opportunity on Wednesday considered House Resolution (H.R.) 476, the Housing Fairness Act of 2009, which would authorize $20m annually for a nationwide study of discrimination in housing and mortgage lending.

Sponsored by Rep. Al Green (D-TX) and introduced on Jan. 13, 2009, HR 476 would direct the US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) to conduct a nationwide testing program to document differences in treatment of consumers looking to rent or purchase housing or refinance an existing mortgage loan. HUD's review would measure patterns of adverse treatment based on race, religion, gender, familial status, disability or national origin across the housing and mortgage lending markets.

HUD would also be required to report to Congress both biennially – regarding the results of testing – and annually – regarding the calls received by the Fair Housing Administration's hotline.

The bill would authorize the HUD secretary or any state or local government or agency, public or private nonprofit organization or institution to pursue investigation or enforcement action to resolve any discrimination uncovered by the test. The bill allocates $20m in fiscal year 2010 and each fiscal year thereafter for the execution of the testing process.

The House subcommittee, in its hearing Wednesday, heard from industry witnesses including HUD assistant secretary for fair housing and equal opportunity John Trasviña, who commented on the occurrence of lending discrimination in complaints received by HUD.

According to Trasviña, about 5% of housing discrimination cases filed with HUD and its state and local agency counterparts involve lending discrimination. Around 30% of these cases demonstrate "cause to believe discrimination occurred," resulting in $2.08m in compensation or assistance distributed last year alone.

"HUD has not always fulfilled its obligation to ensure that our money is spent in ways that affirmatively further fair housing," he said in prepared testimony (download here). "In this new day, however, there is a Department-wide commitment to incorporate our mandate to affirmatively furthering fair housing into all of our work so that we can fulfill our shared goal of truly integrated and balanced living patterns."

But HUD's commitment might not be enough, as the National Fair Housing Alliance president and CEO Shanna Smith said in prepared remarks (download here) that fair housing organizations must have adequate resources to hire fully trained and qualified staff and lending testers, and conduct complicated lending and foreclosure scam tests.

The move for a nationwide program for testing discrimination in housing and mortgage lending comes at a time when a new unit in the Department of Justice (DOJ) Civil Rights Division is already investigating 38 allegations of reverse redlining, the practice where economically disadvantaged neighborhoods are targeted for more expensive and risky mortgage products.

The unit might encounter difficulty making reverse redlining charges stick, however, as a recent suit filed by the City of Baltimore against Wells Fargo (WFC: 29.60 +1.89%) was thrown-out weeks ago. The judge’s decision to dismiss the case comes as another foreclosure-related lawsuit is underway. According to the claims of former employees, Wells used reverse redlining in economically disadvantaged neighborhoods across Memphis and surrounding Shelby County.

Write to Diana Golobay.

Disclaimer: The author holds no relevant investment positions.

Wednesday, January 20th, 2010

The wealthy have money problems, too — yeah they do.

Even refinancing a mortgage for their fancy digs or getting a new loan can be near impossible these days thanks to skittish lenders. And the higher the loan value, the more they worry.

Still, that people with high six-figure incomes, stellar credit histories and gobs of assets get mortgage requests turned down seems weird.

"It's amazing really," said Susan Bruno, a financial planner with Beacon Wealth Consulting in Rowayton, Conn., "but it makes sense when you think about it."



Origination/Lending
Kenneth Bacon, executive vice president of the Fannie Mae multifamily mortgage business, is retiring after 18 years at the mortgage...

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Servicing/Default
The serious delinquency rate for Federal Housing Administration mortgages reached 9.6% in December, the highest level in more than two...

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