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Archive for December, 2009

Thursday, December 31st, 2009

When you’re looking for the bright side of bad news, you can turn to comic-writer Dave Barry, whose latest column in the Miami-Herald sums up 2009 in a way that makes you wonder how we ever made it to the New Year.

The obvious target was the economy and the struggles of the mortgage industry.

Here are some snippets:

  • "BAD NEWS: The economy remained critically weak, with rising unemployment, a severely depressed real-estate market, the near-collapse of the domestic automobile industry and the steep decline of the dollar. GOOD NEWS: Windows 7 sucked less than Vista."
  • "An angry nation learns that the giant insurance company AIG, which received $170 billion in taxpayer bailouts and posted a $61 billion loss, is paying executive bonuses totaling hundreds of millions of dollars. This news shocks and outrages President Obama and members of Congress, who happen to be the very people who passed the legislation that authorized both the bailouts and the bonuses, but of course they did that during a crisis and thus had no time to find out what the hell they were voting for."
  • "[L]eaders of the world's powers, looking for a way out of the worsening world economic crisis, gather in London for the G-20 summit, which ends abruptly in a violent argument over the bill for the welcoming dinner. A short while later, in what many economists see as a troubling development, the International Monetary Fund moves into a refrigerator carton."
  • "On the economic front, California is caught on videotape attempting to shoplift 17,000 taxpayers from Nevada."
  • "On the international-finance front, leaders of the world's economic powers gather for the G-20 summit meeting in Pittsburgh, where, in a rare display of unity, they vote unanimously to fire whoever is responsible for selecting their meeting sites."
  • "In a troubling economic development, the U.S. dollar, for the first time in history, falls below the lentil."
  • "On the economic front, the nation's unemployment rate remains stubbornly high as it becomes clear that the $787 billion stimulus package has created a total of only eight jobs, all in the field of highway-construction flagperson. Looking for solutions, the president hosts a White House "jobs summit" attended by political, business and labor leaders, as well as 23 Portuguese tourists who got lost while trying to visit the Washington Monument and somehow penetrated White House security. Meanwhile, in what is believed to be the largest Craigslist transaction ever, California sells San Diego to Mexico."

Hopefully 2010 will suck less than 2009. Happy New Year.

Write to Jon Prior.

Thursday, December 31st, 2009

The year ends with mortgage rates just over 5%, according to mortgage giant Freddie Mac (FRE: 0.00 N/A).

According to Freddie’s weekly survey, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 5.14% with an average 0.7 point for the week ending Dec. 31. The rate is up from last week’s 5.05% and from the same last year when it averaged 5.10%.

The 15-year FRM averaged 4.54% with a 0.7 point, up from 4.45% last week and down from 4.83% a year ago. The 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 4.44% with an average 0.6 point, a slight increase from 4.4% last week. The 1-year Treasury-indexed ARM averaged 4.33% this week with a 0.6 point, down from 4.38% last week, according to the survey.

“Although long-term mortgage rates rose for the fourth week in a row, they still remain affordable by historical standards,” said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist.

He added that the monthly principal and interest payments for a 30-year FRM are close to 33% less than a decade ago when rates peaked at 8.6% in May 2000, based on today’s median loan amount of $138,000.

Bankrate.com’s survey of large US banks and thrifts placed the 30-year FRM at 5.33%, up 9bps from the previous week and the lowest in the 24-year history of its survey. It also showed the 15-year FRM climbed 11bps to 4.73%.

“The year 2009 will be remembered for having the lowest mortgage rates in generations, even as the government worked like the dickens to keep homeowners out of foreclosure,” according to Holden Lewis of Bankrate.com.

Time will tell what we see in 2010, but most analysts predict rates will rise as the federal government backs off of an all-out effort to prop up the nation's housing markets.

Write to Jon Prior.

Thursday, December 31st, 2009

As the moratorium closes for the UK’s land stamp tax, the Council of Mortgage Lenders estimates the cost to the government will be just under £500m ($793m) with exempt transactions varying across the country.

The UK imposes the land stamp tax on mortgagees and varies depending on the purchase price of the home. In September 2008, the government temporarily raised the 0% tax rate from £125,000 to £175,000 capped the rate for homes purchased for more than £500,000 at 4%.

When the threshold was raised, CML estimated that the proportion of homebuyers who would not have to pay would raise from 25% to 50%. But at its peak in Q109, 57% of those buying a home did not have to pay. As home prices crept upward and more consumers bought higher-valued properties, the proportion dropped to 51% in Q309.

Areas with lower house prices saw the greatest benefit, according to CML. With the higher threshold in place, 75% of transactions in the North were exempt from the duty.
Contrastly, London saw much less benefit. Before the threshold was raised, 2% of transactions were exempt. When it went up, only 17% avoided paying the tax. In the UK, London accounts for 13% of home purchases but only 6% of those exempt the stamp tax.

While transactions seemed to be spurred by the moratorium, more borrowers in the UK tightened their housing equity withdrawals (HEW). The Bank of England estimates the total HEW in Q309 at a -£4.9bn, implying that individuals injected £4.9bn into housing equity in the quarter.

When the measure to raise the threshold was introduced, the UK Treasury estimated the cost to be £615m. Even after the moratorium was extended to December 2009, the CML estimates it would cost £356m in the first 12 months. Forecating through the end of the year, the CML anticipates a price tag just under £500m.

“The CML continues to believe that fundamental reform of stamp duty is necessary,” according to the CML’s report. “While abolition would be the best option, a move to a graduated structure would be an improvement on the current system, even if done on a cost-neutral basis. While the temporary concession was welcome as far as it went, it is disappointing that the government has not sought to implement this desirable reform of an anachronistic tax.”

Write to Jon Prior.

Thursday, December 31st, 2009

The US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) removed the 1% origination fee cap on loans insured by the Federal Housing Agency (FHA), according a mortgagee letter sent out this week.

HUD made the change to remain consistent with the Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act (RESPA), which will require mortgage lenders to disclose to borrowers a single origination fee on the Good Faith Estimate (GFE) and the HUD-1 Settlement Statement. The regulations go into effect Jan. 1, 2010 and have software developers scrambling to fit in the updates before the deadline.

Under RESPA, the single origination charge on the GFE and HUD-1 must include all administrative and processing fees related to the origination of the loans, including compensation for both the mortgage lender and broker. HUD recognized the bundled charge would exceed the 1% cap, according to a statement from the law firm K&L Gates.

To match the changes of FHA regulations, HUD will no longer limit the amount of the origination fee charged to FHA borrowers.

FHA lenders shouldn’t get too excited about unlimited origination charges.

The FHA will expect lenders to charge “fair and reasonable” fees and will monitor them to ensure FHA borrowers are not overcharged, and FHA commissioner David Stevens intends to issue additional guidance on fee limitations, according to the letter.

“Don’t be surprised if this additional guidance is released in early 2010 and results in a percentage cap on the overall amount of fees that can be charged to the FHA borrower,” according to the statement from K&L Group. “For now, however, HUD's deregulation of the 1% origination fee cap is welcomed news for FHA lenders ready to comply with RESPA's new disclosure requirements.”

Write to Jon Prior.

Thursday, December 31st, 2009

Home prices in the UK climbed 5.9% in 2009, according to a report from the Nationwide Building Society.

The average price of a home in the UK landed at £162,103 ($257,105) to end the year with an 8.9% rebound from their lowest point in February 2009, according to Martin Gahbauer, Nationwide’s chief economist.

Prices in the UK climbed another 0.4% in December, continuing a recent trend in steady month-on-month growth, but the growth seen in the rolling three-month trend dropped from 2.8% in November to 2.1% in December as prices increase more moderately than in the summer, Gahbauer said.

“Few could have foreseen this development at the start of the year, when the near term price
trend was still pointing to a repeat of the double digit annual decline experienced in 2008,” Gahbauer said.

The UK has endured the worse recession since WWII as housing prices dropped 65% from its peak in January 2009 to November 2008. Demand rose at the start of 2009 as the government provided land stamp tax relief to borrowers and as interest rates hit record lows.

“The re-entry of cash rich buyers into the market coincided with an extremely low supply of property available for sale, as low interest rates limited the number of distressed sales and a significant number of home movers decided to offer their properties for rent rather than sale.  This restriction in supply meant that even a relatively modest pick-up in demand was able to put upward pressure on house prices,” Gahbauer said.

Looking ahead to 2010, Gahbauer anticipates that the Bank of England will not raise interest rates until at least the second half of 2010. However, if the British pound continues to slip and inflation grows, interest-hikes could come sooner, according to Gahbauer. He’s also uncertain if the “cash-rich” buyers can support the housing demand. Despite signs of loosening credit lines, they remain tighter than before the downturn.

“At this stage, therefore, it seems likely that 2010 will see no significant house price movements in either direction. However, the experience of 2009 demonstrates how unpredictable the market is at the current juncture and that one should always be prepared for the UK housing market to surprise,” Gahbauer said.

Write to Jon Prior.

Thursday, December 31st, 2009

The U.S. taxpayer now owns a majority interest in GMAC Financial Services, which this week received a capital infusion of $3.79bn from the US Treasury Department. The latest government-led effort to bolster GMAC's capital base comes as part of a year-end effort to close a capital shortfall, per government stress tests conducted in May 2009.

The additional aid means that the U.S. goverment now owns 56 percent of GMAC, totaling $16.3 billion. Much of the aid comes as the financial services giant continues to reel from mortgage losses in its Residential Capital (ResCap) unit. ResCap has lost $2.7 billion through the first three quarters of 2009, and lost $9.96 billion in 2008 and 2007.

"By protecting the financial performance and strength of our core automotive finance operations, we expect to increase the pace at which we can fully repay the U.S. taxpayer," said GMAC CEO Michael Carpenter, in a statement. "These actions will also allow GMAC to pursue strategic alternatives for ResCap and the mortgage business."

Among those strategic alternatives is a potential sale of the business to investment titan Warren Buffett, according to a New York Post report from Dec. 24 that cited unnamed sources. Buffett is alleged to hold a large debt position in ResCap, according to the report; and while GMAC is largely insulated from ResCap's debt, the ailing mortgage lender and servicer's continuing losses are a direct drag on GMAC's earnings.

With the latest government investment, GMAC said it now meets the capital buffer required under the Federal Reserve’s Supervisory Capital Assessment Program (SCAP). In May 2009, the Fed had instructed GMAC to raise $9.1bn in capital. The Treasury then purchased a $3.5bn stake in GMAC, leaving $5.6bn to go. Since then, GMAC, the Fed and the Treasury negotiated new issuances, including the latest $3.79bn.

In an effort to make up the remaining $1.81bn in required capital, GMAC announced plans to write-down roughly $2bn of mortgage assets at ResCap.

According to the plans, GMAC will reclassify some international assets and businesses from held for investment (HFI) to held for sale (HFS), charging $1.3bn before taxes. As of the end of September, these assets had an unpaid principal balance of $2.4bn and a net of allowance for credit losses of $2bn, the company said.

"These decisive balance sheet actions and resulting capital infusions are intended to minimize the impact on GMAC and Ally Bank of any significant future losses related to ResCap's legacy mortgage business," Carpenter said.

Nonetheless, GMAC also said it does not expect to absorb further substantial losses from ResCap's operations, but did not specify if those expectations were based upon a planned sale of the company or a turnaroud in ResCap's operating fortunes.

Write to Jon Prior.

Thursday, December 31st, 2009

Jeremy McCarty is the CEO and chief valuation strategist of Roseville, Calif.-based Valligent. Formerly known as EAS, Valligent operates in the areas of national residential valuation and collateral risk management solutions, including appraisal review, proprietary valuation, loan pool reconciliation tie-out services, and appraisal underwriting. Jeremy has over 20 years of experience in the real estate industry with extensive experience in appraisal operations, customer service, process re-engineering and quality control.

For this installment of In This Corner, Jeremy tells us what he thinks is wrong with the valuation industry, and how he believes the industry can grow consumer confidence again.

HW: The announcement of your rebranding campaign mentioned the mortgage industry's "crisis of confidence" when it comes to property valuations. What is fundamentally wrong?

Jeremy: "It’s a combination of several factors. Within the past 10 to 15 years, there has been a significant influx of new appraisers that have received little or no proper training, and little to no scrutiny was placed upon those responsible for training these appraisers. As a result, appraisers with little to no moral fortitude produced a large number of new appraisers with little to no understanding and/or concern for appraisal ethics.

"In fact, appraiser licensing has actually contributed to a decline in appraisal quality. Prior to licensing, lenders were very diligent about maintaining lists of approved appraisers and scrutinizing their panels. Increased use of automated underwriting and consistent upward value trends caused lenders to apply less scrutiny to appraisals."

HW: With this lack of "moral fortitude," how much fraud is out there?

Jeremy: "Appraisal fraud became rampant and mortgage brokers began placing pressure on appraisers to push values higher. When foreclosures began to surface, it became evident that many of the underlying appraised values were completely unsupportable at the time of appraisal. The resulting crisis in confidence has contributed to the almost complete shutdown of private capital market loan pool acquisitions, and remains a daily concern for lenders funding loans today. Strong leadership and careful scrutiny of valuation products are now needed to restore confidence to lending."

HW: Well, let's talk different options. How are valuations different from broker priced opinions? They're more prominent on the REO side of the business. Are they cheaper to use for lenders than valuations?

Jeremy: "Usually, BPOs are cheaper. Lenders take advantage of the fact that many real estate agents in this economy are desperate for listings, and implicit in the BPO request is the chance to obtain the listing and receive a sizeable commission. Brokers often end up working for less than minimum wage to complete the BPO, on the odd chance that they will receive the listing. More commonly, certain agents specialize in BPOs, and rush to complete these assignments as quickly as possible, given that they may only be paid $20 or less to complete these assignments.

"Yet real estate agents as a whole have little or no education or training in valuation methodology and have a personal vested interest in their valuation amount, as it can influence how fast they can sell the property if they do get the listing. The lack of standards and liability for errors and omissions within a BPO means that quality tends to be extremely poor and inconsistent."

HW: When you released your valuation tool, Collateral Cascade, you said it was like a medical triage unit, where the properties with the highest risk are matched with a valuation with the toughest scrutiny. Should valuations be based on the status of the loan or should a valuation of a property be the valuation of the property?

Jeremy: "Just as a complex valuation assignment – such as a rural farm house on 20 acres – requires more research and analysis than a standard subdivision home, properties in a higher risk market with a high foreclosure rate and plummeting prices require more scrutiny than properties in a highly desirable neighborhood with increasing values. Lenders are accustomed to using $15 automated valuations for their low-risk loans, as the minimal risk of a low LTV loan with a creditworthy borrower does not usually necessitate a higher cost valuation product. The complexity of these decisions lies in correctly identifying the low-risk properties.

"The difference with Valligent’s Collateral Cascade is a highly experienced review appraiser is analyzing the collateral risk of the property and its market, and is recommending and applying the appropriate valuation tool. This could be an AVM, a full appraisal, or one of several emerging gap valuation products. Many lenders are leaving money on the table by applying the wrong tool to a particular loan scenario, or taking on additional risk exposure by failing to pursue higher risk loans with more comprehensive products."

HW: With prices continuing to decline, how does Valligent place a value on a property when prices are expected to fall next week or next month? In other words, do you build in a variable that offsets dropping prices?

Jeremy: "It depends on the scope of the assignment. In some cases we are asked to provide the market value as of the date of the appraisal. If the property were to sell today, what would it sell for? Other times we are asked to provide a reasonable list price and a value the property would sell for under typical neighborhood market conditions. Valligent has access to some of the most sophisticated tools that analyze neighborhood price trends, absorption rates, days on market, and other factors. Our highly experienced appraisers utilize the most recent comparable sales, pending sales and current listings to support their conclusions. Even in downward markets, our expert use of industry-best collateral review tools delivers valuations that can be trusted and validated."

Thursday, December 31st, 2009

The Illinois Department of Financial and Professional Regulation (IDFPR) said this week it will adopt the Nationwide Licensing System (NMLS) for license applications and renewals beginning Jan. 4, 2010.

Loan originators in Illinois will also begin transitioning onto the NMLS for their new individual licensing credentials required in 2010. The database licensing system is designed to ensure a mortgage loan professional’s competency and a record of disciplinary actions in another other state.

NMLS was up and running in Jan. 2, 2008, as a response by to historic turmoil in the U.S. mortgage markets. Currently, 23 states are using the system to accept and process uniform license applications.

No later than March 2010, the IDFPR will require all companies holding residential mortgage licenses and all individual loan originators to have a complete record in NMLS. New testing of loan originators will follow, the state regulator said.

“We expect this new regulatory framework to greatly enhance our supervision of the mortgage industry. NMLS complements Illinois’ comprehensive licensing system and will help us stop bad actors who cross state lines,” said Brent Adams, secretary of financial and professional regulation. “This framework will also allow Illinois mortgage companies and their professional staff to apply for and manage their license electronically.”

Write to Jon Prior.

Thursday, December 31st, 2009

The end of the year is upon us — and what a year it's been! Here's a look at the top 5 most-read stories from HW this year.

A Game of Credit Cost Smoke and Mirrors at Wells Fargo?
Paul Jackson, April 9, 2009
This story about potential lurking credit costs at WFC caught the collective imagination of both investors and the industry alike, and genereated heated debates about how banks reserve for credit losses. With the U.S. housing stock engaging in what John Mauldin has taken to calling "the Statistical Recovery" not too long after this story was published, much of the buzz around credit losses has since petered out.

The Nation’s 20 Worst Housing Markets
Paul Jackson and Kelly Curran, January 20, 2009
Sure, it's from January, which shouldn't surprise in any "most read of the year" list. But this story was an HW exclusive, and at the time was our way of interpreting how negative equity would affect local housing markets — well before the idea of negative equity affecting borrower defaults had grabbed the collective imagination of the mainstream press.

Kellerman: the Scapegoat of a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy?
April 23, 2009
It was earlier this year that acting CFO at Freddie Mac, David Kellerman, was found dead of an alleged suicide. This piece was contributed by an industry veteran, who wished to remain anonymous given the crush of press coverage surrounding Kellerman's death at the time. The viewpoint it provides generated a ton of response both within and outside of the industry. (Our best wishes continue to go out to Kellerman's family.)

Lend America Mortgage Fraud, 20 Years in the Making?
Austin Kilgore, October 26, 2009
HW's in-depth look at alleged improprieties at New York-based lender Lend America proved prescient, as the company was shut down roughly one month later. While other media outlets had reported on HUD's actions against the firm, HW reporter Austin Kilgore combed the entire 155-page document to paint a picture of alleged fraud spanning nearly two decades.

Treasury to Announce New Program to Avoid Foreclosure
Jacob Gaffney, October 12, 2009
HW broke the news on the government's latest foreclosure rescue plan, called Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternatives (HAFA). The program is designed to boost short sales, and became national news a few weeks later after we broke this story.

Other notables from 2009:

Tranche Warfare: MBS Investor Sues American Home Over REO Sales
Teri Buhl, March 6, 2009
HW broke the story of a battle between Wilbur Ross-owned American Home Mortgage and Carrington Capital; this was the first of two stories on the matter, as American Home shortly thereafter countersued Carrington. If you've wanted to see what goes on "in the tranches" between servicers and investors, this story provides unique insight.

Amherst Sees 7m Foreclosures Poised to Distress House Prices
Diana Golobay, September 24, 2009
This story nearly made it into our top 5, and would have if there were a few more days in the year. Amherst's Laurie Goodman has been the mortgage analyst of the last decade, and her pronouncement that HAMP would ultimately do little to stanch a flow of distressed properties certainly generated plenty of heat.

Of course, there were plenty of other big stories throughout the course of this year, including an HW exclusive that suggested problems in the FHLB system before those problems became front-page financial news, as well as our exclusive scoop on IBM's decision to enter the mortgage servicing business. And there's my personal favorites, too — which include a take-down of the New York Times' attempt to make the REO industry into villians, as well as a rebuttal of an inaccurate press report over at Dow Jones. And, let's not forget the mammoth contributions we've received from the inimitable Linda Lowell this year, as well.

2009 has been a year to remember, but we're already looking ahead to 2010. What new trends will emerge next year? Stay tuned.

Paul Jackson is the publisher of HousingWire.com and HousingWire Magazine.

Wednesday, December 30th, 2009

A recent set of research focusing on 2010 strategies for investors of agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) by analysts at Barclays Capital finds that credit availability for mortgage originations may increase in the next six to 12 months.

However, the situation will remain tight in the next three to six months, they add, as the market grapples with ongoing risk aversion sentiments, loan repurchases stabilization and new regulatory procedures that will need this time to take hold.

"In particular, in H210, there could be a meaningful extension of conventional credit to currently under-served segments," write the analysts in their Agency MBS Outlook 2010, such as "the substantial population of borrowers with low LTV but only mid-range FICOs (700-740)."

In the face of this, tougher underwriting standards at the GSEs over the past year also reduced credit availability. Traditionally, these loans would hold around a 30% market share, the analysts say, but tapered off from this level in 2009.

The behavior of the GSEs is growing increasingly hard to predict. Meaning the analysts aren't certain if the GSEs will look to grow their origination percentage, or continue with such risk aversion.

"They have to balance political pressure to make mortgage credit available, while at the same time reducing their credit risk on their ongoing book of business," they write, adding that they are leaning more to the GSEs not loosening credit standards on their own device and instead needing a "clear mandate from the administration to do so."

"However, with the utter failure of [the government refinance program] HARP  and the disappointing results thus far of [the government modification program] HAMP, we would not discount this outcome."

Instead, they reason that repurchase risk, the speed at which issuers must buy back delinquent loans and also drives a level of credit tightening, will decrease due to the expectation that repurchase rates on originations will lessen. This will likely be due to a more robust economic environment on a macro level and dropping levels of delinquencies as worse-off borrowers are shaken out of the system.

Write to Jacob Gaffney.

Disclosure: the author holds no relevant investments.



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