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Archive for September, 2009

Thursday, September 24th, 2009

Recent analysis by the Amherst Securities Group indicates the housing industry will not only worsen as a delayed pipeline of foreclosed loans begins to liquidate, but that the Administration's Making Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) will have no lasting effect on keeping delinquent loans current.

The early signs of stabilization seen among housing industry observers may soon recede as an overhang of the shadow inventory of foreclosures waits to enter the market.

The general outlook that the housing market has bottomed is "premature" optimism, according to analysis this week from Amherst.

"The single largest impediment to a recovery in the housing market is the large number of loans that are either in delinquent status or in foreclosure that are destined to liquidate," analyst Laurie Goodman said in an insight report Wednesday.

Amherst estimates this "shadow inventory" at around 7m housing units, or 135% of a full year of existing home sales, compared with 1.27m units in this bucket in early 2005. The backlog is due to high transition rates, low cure rates and a longer timeline for loan liquidation — in other words, loans continue to transition into the delinquency/foreclosure pipeline at a rapid pace, but are moving out at a very slow pace.

The loans, however, are "destined to liquidate" and will impact the signs of recovery seen in recent months by pulling down house prices through distressed sales.

"We are concerned that, in light of this housing overhang, the stabilization we have seen in home prices the last few months is temporary," Goodman added.

Despite positive signs of house price stabilization and rising new and existing home sales, existing loans continue to deteriorate in performance, as Amherst noted a "staggering" 13.5% delinquency/foreclosure rate in a Q209 survey by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).

Cure rates for these distressed loans remain low. Amherst noted a near 0% cure rate of all loans in foreclosure, 0.8% for 90 plus days delinquent, 4.4% for 60 days delinquent and 26.5% for 30-day delinquencies. All told, Amherst expects 12.42% of units (from the 13.54% of properties delinquent and in foreclosure) to eventually liquidate.

Despite efforts by servicers and the Administration to prevent delinquent loans from foreclosing, the federally-funded HAMP modifications will likely disappoint in the long-term, Amherst said. HAMP, which allocates capped incentive amounts to servicers that pursue loan modifications, includes a three-month trial period to ensure borrowers can meet payments on the modified loan.

But it may take much longer than three months to determine the ultimate performance of HAMP modifications, Amherst said, noting the historic 12-month recidivism — or re-default — rate on modified loans sits at about 70%.

"We have argued that HAMP modifications are unlikely to be successful in the long run as it does not address negative equity, the single most important determinant of default," analysts wrote. "And the borrower will still face payment shock as the payments begins to ramp up after the 5-year period in which the payments are fixed."

Even should HAMP outperform historic modifications, Amherst does not expect much of the overhanging inventory to cure. Assuming an 85% qualification rate for the 7m units seen in the overhang, analysts pointed out a 50% borrower outreach success rate — meaning servicers will statistically contact only 50% of the qualifying borrowers. Of these borrowers eventually reached, analysts said only 50% will submit the necessary documentation and only 75% of those modifications will succeed.

"[I]t suggests that 16% of the overhang or just over 1m units would be eliminated," analysts wrote. "And many of these borrowers would default later, if they remain in a negative equity position."

Write to Diana Golobay.

Thursday, September 24th, 2009

The House Financial Services Committee met Thursday to hear expert testimony on systemic risk in the financial system and the potential role of resolution authority in unwinding troubled firms.

A key witness at the meeting, former chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Paul Volcker, urged the registration of hedge funds and private equity funds and suggested the Federal Reserve should oversee the overall financial system.

Committee chairman Barney Frank (D-Mass.) reiterated a "universal dislike" of too-big-to-fail institutions, noting there is no apparent single solution and any legislation adopted by the House would implement a series of steps to prevent these systemic presences in the market. Additionally, the legislation should adopt a resolution authority or "death panel" that would "put an institution to death" when it becomes clear it can no longer function, Frank added in his opening remarks.

Rep. Spencer Bachus (R-Ala.), on the other hand, maintained his opposition of much of the Administration's proposed regulatory reforms. He brought the issue of firms considered "too small to save," indicating the existence of uneven treatment of financial firms. Bachus called to considered resolution authority a "permanent TARP" (or Troubled Asset Relief Program).

He noted Treasury Department secretary Tim Geithner at the hearing Wednesday would not rule out the possibility of future bailouts of systemic firms. Bachus noted a contrasting  support by House Republicans supports bankruptcy proceedins for failed non-bank institutions. He said firms "can and should fail as their bad decisions render them insolvent."

Volcker instead supported placing insolvent non-bank firms into the proposed resolution authority. He indicated he is "more than somewhat resistant" to the Administration's proposal. A majority of systemic institutions are commercial banks, he noted, adding that a safety net already exists for those banks, which are subject to deposit insurance and other means of support. Banking and insurance companies are most systemic, he said, and an extension of regulation beyond these firms would increase moral hazard issues.

But private equity firms and hedge funds are not outside the realm of supervision and should register and report to supervising agencies, Volcker said. Private equity, hedge funds, credit default swaps (CDs) and collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) are different businesses from commercial banking, however, he said. The economy needs strong capital markets; it's a different business — an impersonal, useful trading business, Volcker added.

"As a matter of broad policy, an assumption that those non-bank institutions would come into the framework of the Federal safety net should be discouraged," Volcker said in prepared remarks. "The credibility of that approach will need to be supported by legislation."

Volcker added: "A designated regulatory agency will need to be provided authority to set rules for capital, leverage, and liquidity for those few institutions that may be large enough to pose systemic risk."

But any legislation eventually passed should prohibit banks and their bank holding companies (BHCs)  from sponsoring hedge funds and should keep the businesses distinct, Volcker said. Strict supervision enforced by capital requirements on proprietary trading, securities and derivatives should be included, he noted. Additionally, these systemic non-banks should be resolved through the resolution authority, if necessary.

Volcker noted the need to "rejigger" regulation authority, as identified by the Treasury Department's proposal for a council of regulators to survey the overall financial system and identify risks. Such a council would prove ineffective, he noted, adding these supervisory authorities fall within the Fed's jurisdiction.

"This is the natural function for the Federal Reserve," he said.

Write to Diana Golobay.

Thursday, September 24th, 2009

[Update 1 adds statement by FHA commissioner David Stevens]

The Federal Housing Administration (FHA) decreased the principal limiting factors (PLF), or the amount seniors can claim in cash withdraws against their home, for reverse mortgages or home equity conversion mortgages (HECMs), according to a letter addressed to FHA lenders dated September 23.

The Housing and Community Development Act of 1987 established a federal mortgage insurance program that would insure HECMs to be administered by the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD).

The program insures reverse mortgages and is designed to enable homeowners above the age of 62 to convert equity in their homes to monthly streams of income, according the HECM handbook.

The PLF, which determines the amount of equity that can be withdrawn, is based on the age of the youngest borrower, the expected average mortgage interest rate and the maximum claim amount.

FHA decreased the principal limit that can be received by the borrower by 10%.

Before the changes, the PLF for a 75-year old borrower with a 7.75% interest rate was .554. If the home is appraised at $165,000 in an area where the maximum mortgage limit was $151,725, the initial principal limit could be determined by multiplying the mortgage limit by the PLF. That borrower could receive $84,055.65, according to the HECM handbook.

With the new changes, that same borrower with that same interest rate will have a PLF of .498. Using the same value of the home and the same maximum mortgage limit, the borrower can now receive only $75,559.05, a 10% decrease.

The new PLFs must be used for all HECMs for loans that received a FHA case number on or after Oct. 1, 2009, according the letter. For loans that received a case number before that date, the old PLFs apply.

FHA reduced the PLFs “to assist with the viability of the program,” according the letter signed by David Stevens, FHA’s commissioner.

“We are taking prudent steps at this time to protect the viability of the HECM program and the market it serves. For several months, we have been working on changes to the program to improve performance and mitigate growing risk concerns. As the popularity of HECM continues to increase, we are taking steps to make certain the program remains viable for current seniors as well as the next wave of baby boomers who may be considering it as an option,” Stevens said in a statement.

The adjustment comes after another policy change last week by the FHA to reduce risk and strengthen the FHA’s reserves.

Write to Jon Prior.

Wednesday, September 23rd, 2009

The House Financial Services Committee wrapped up a long day of hearings on the Administration's proposed financial regulatory reform as regulators weighed in late Wednesday.

After hearing solely from Treasury Department secretary Tim Geithner, who spoke on the Administration's proposals for sweeping reform early Wednesday, Committee members heard an emerging consensus that merging major regulators into one entity would be ineffective to exercising authority in areas that require different forms of regulation.

Committee members seemed to agree on the need for some form of overhaul in the financial system. Rep. David Scott (D-Ga.), for example, noted unemployment and foreclosures climb at a time when banks are not lending to small businesses, which create the jobs.

"There seems to be a freezing of the arteries within the banking system," Scott said.

But unfreezing the banking system requires a convergence of the Administration and lawmakers on moving reform legislation through.

Rep. Scott Garrett (R-NJ), for example, noted Committee chairman Barney Frank's (D-Mass.) recent suggestions to narrow the proposed Consumer Financial Protection Agency (CFPA) seem to contrast the Administration's move to apply reform on a much broader basis, to areas of the system that did not cause the fundamental problems at hand.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. chairman Sheila Bair, the first witness at the hearing, indicated the FDIC supports the CFPA. She also urged a new resolution regime to resolve financial institutions similar to the way the FDIC steps in and resolves banks.

She called for larger capital buffers at financial institutions but warned against removing consumer protection examination and supervision from other supervisory efforts — like safety and soundness supervision — which she said could undermine the effectiveness of both efforts.

"A strong case can be made for creating incentives that reduce the size and complexity of financial institutions," Bair said in prepared remarks. "A financial system characterized by a handful of giant institutions with global reach and a single regulator is making a huge bet on the performance of those banks and that regulator. "

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) John Dugan said the OCC supports a council of financial regulators in the Administration's proposal, as well as some consolidation of regulation to be applied to all systemic financial institutions, including securities and insurance firms.

The OCC, he added, supports the goals of the CFPA, but said rule writing would not be uniform at the new agencies, as the proposal indicates states can adopt different rules. Dugan said the CFPA ought to provide for federal banking agencies' input for uniformity in rule-making.

The final two witnesses to present opening remarks at the Committee hearing shared comments that a consolidation of major regulators into a single entity — similar to proposals formed by Sen. Christopher Dodd (D-Conn.) — would fail to address the key issues of financial regulatory reform.

Office of Thrift Supervision acting director John Bowman said Congress will not solve the "problems of tomorrow" by merging regulatory agencies. This move for blanket regulation would be inappropriate for all financial firms, Bowman said. Focusing the same regulation on community banks and large financial institutions with different needs, for example, would prove costly and inefficient.

The North Carolina Commissioner of Banks Joseph Smith Jr., on behalf of the Conference of State Bank Supervisors, indicated some concern over a consolidated financial industry that consumes the attention of regulators and is "unmoved" by the needs of consumers and communities. He added it is a misconception that a consolidated, "monolithic" regulatory system will lead to stronger financial system.

Write to Diana Golobay.

Wednesday, September 23rd, 2009

[Update 1 adds statement from Federal Reserve Bank of New York.]

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) wrapped up its monetary policy meeting Wednesday, keeping — as expected — the federal funds rate at a 0 to 0.25% target range as inflation risk remains subdued.

The FOMC, in its statement late Wednesday, indicated positive developments since its August meeting, although it plans to extend certain securities- and debt-purchasing programs into 2010.

"Conditions in financial markets have improved further [since August], and activity in the housing sector has increased," FOMC members wrote. "Household spending seems to be stabilizing, but remains constrained by ongoing job losses, sluggish income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit."

But the Federal Reserve intends to continue its role in providing credit to the securities market.

The FOMC confirmed the Fed is on track to buy a total $1.25trn of agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) from Fannie Mae (FNM: 0.00 N/A), Freddie Mac (FRE: 0.00 N/A) and Ginnie Mae. The Fed will gradually slow the pace of the purchases in anticipation of a full execution of the program by the end of Q110 — which ends in March 2010.

It marks an extension of the MBS-purchasing program past the previously anticipated year-end date of December 2009. The slowing of purchases is intended to "promote a smooth transition in markets" as the government ends its participation in the agency MBS market.

To implement the gradual slowing of agency MBS purchases, agents acting on behalf of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's open market trading desk plan to reduce the average weekly purchase amounts beginning with the reporting week that starts September 24, according to a NY Fed statement.

The Fed will also purchase up to $200bn of agency debt with a projected execution date also in March 2010. The Fed's purchases of $300bn of Treasury securities will complete by the end of October 2009.

Write to Diana Golobay.

Wednesday, September 23rd, 2009

Gross mortgage lending in the United Kingdom surged in August, jumping by £2.8bn ($4.6bn) from July when volume dipped, according to a report by the British Bankers’ Association (BBA).

Despite analysts pointing to an impending recovery in the US housing market, Moody’s expects the UK financial sector to take on more damage as the foreclosure crisis continues.

The BBA’s report, however, sheds some optimistic light on the future as mortgage lending grew by 4.6% over the last year. And going ahead, the number of loans approved for house purchase continues to stabilize, according to the report.

“Loans approved for house purchase have recovered to early-2008 levels, but low levels of customer demand and a limited number of properties coming onto the market will continue to moderate lending,” said David Brooks, BBA statistics director.

Brooks added that in August, lending expanded to a range of company sectors, with manufacturing and construction showing net repayments.

“The main high street banks’ mortgage lending has stabilized in a market where other lenders are largely inactive,” Brooks said.

Write to Jon Prior.

Wednesday, September 23rd, 2009

As the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets today to wrap up a session largely expected to result in no change to the low federal funds rate — the overnight rate at which banks lend to each other — the House Financial Services Committee heard testimony on the Administration's plans for sweeping financial regulatory reform.

Committee chairman Barney Frank (D-Mass.) said in opening statements there should be a mechanism for putting non-bank financial institutions "out of everyone's misery," adding "there will be a death panel" enforced by the legislation eventually adopted.

Rep. Spencer Bachus (R-Ala.) took a less aggressive tone, stressing the need for smarter — not more — regulation. He said reform legislation should seek greater enforcement of existing regulations, rather than a new layer of regulation.

Bachus cited his "deep-seated" reservations on the Administration's proposal, pointing toward "misguided" government intervention in bailing out large financial institutions. He said failed non-banks should be moved through bankruptcy proceedings, in which shareholders and investors would absorb losses, rather than government regulators and — ultimately — taxpayers.

Bachus also indicated his reservations over the proposed Consumer Financial Protection Agency (CFPA), saying consumers will ultimately pay for it at a time when other regulatory entities fail to enforce their share of consumer protection. The CFPA would not solve the key issues at hand, he said, calling instead for an effort to streamline existing bank regulators into a unified entity.

Rep. Scott Garrett (R-N.J.) seemed to oppose such a mega-regulator, citing Sen. Christopher Dodd's (D-Conn.) recent proposal to combine the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), Office of Thrift Supervision (OTS), the Federal Reserve and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) into a single financial regulator.

Dodd's intentions to create a single large regulator threw a "wrench into the works" at a time when congressional attempts to create financial regulatory reform legislation have already delayed, Garrett said. He suggested pushing the timeline for completed legislation into 2010, to allow both the Senate and House of Representatives to arrive at mutual agreements.

In the mean time, two key challenges remain: finding balance between consumer protection and competition among financial firms, and dealing with firms considered too big to fail, according to Treasury Department secretary Tim Geithner.

Geithner, the Committee's sole witness in the morning's hearing and the first in an "ambitious" series of hearings scheduled in weeks to come, said addressing these challenges requires regulatory overhaul without limiting consumer choice of financial products or stifling competition.

The Administration's proposals focus on achieving three goals, including provide new protection for consumers and investors, creating a more stable, safer financial system that is less prone to crisis and safeguarding taxpayers from bearing costs of battling future crises, Geithner said in prepared remarks.

The proposed legislation seeks to merge the OCC and OTS into a new National Bank Supervisor. It also would require hedge funds to register, set rules for derivatives markets, constrain leverage and require financial firms to hold higher capital and liquidity buffers.

Following Geithner's opening remarks, Bachus drew his attention to suggested changes by Frank to the proposed CFPA. Frank called specifically to drop the requirement that CFPA enforces the marketing and sale of "plain vanilla" financial products, according to Bachus.

The provision aims to prevent complex debt products and confusing mortgage terms but faces criticism for government regulation of financial products.

Geithner seemed to indicate the Administration is generally supportive of the changes proposed by Frank. He seemed to push greater disclosure of product terms over regulated products, emphasizing "smarter regulation" of disclosures currently in place.

Consumers ought to have the right to choose a more simple, understandable product and the way to do that is to "get disclosure right," Geithner said.

Write to Diana Golobay.

Wednesday, September 23rd, 2009

Columbia, Md.-based affordable housing lender Enterprise Community Investment is expanding its multifamily lending portfolio to include market-rate multifamily lending.

Selling a number of Fannie Mae (FNM: 0.00 N/A) loan products, Enterprise’s multifamily portfolio has already financed more than $540m to construct 16,000 affordable housing units, as well as mortgages to fund the acquisition and rehabilitations of other multifamily units.

“With the expansion of our special Fannie Mae lending program, we can now help both affordable and market-rate multifamily housing owners acquire, refinance or rehab and potentially reduce operating costs,” said C. Lamar Seats, Enterprise senior vice president, in a statement.

“Refinancing proceeds can be used towards weatherization improvements, green retrofits or preservation of family and seniors housing,” he added.

Write to Austin Kilgore.

Wednesday, September 23rd, 2009

A new software product released by Experian Capital Markets analyzes risk in whole loan portfolios.

Experian Capital Markets — a division of Dublin, Ireland-based information services provider Experian — said its Credit Horizons for Whole Loan Portfolios uses consumer credit data, credit risk scores and predictive attributes to provide an overview of a loan portfolio’s borrowers. This information is helpful for investors when projecting the future performance of a portfolio.

“Attributes such as credit card utilization rates are predictive indicators of early mortgage delinquency,” said Ethan Klemperer, Experian Capital Markets general manager and senior vice president.

“Borrowers who exhibit high credit card utilization are 27 times more likely to default on their mortgages within the subsequent three months,” he added.

Write to Austin Kilgore.

Wednesday, September 23rd, 2009

Moody’s Investment Services revised its approach to originator assessments for US residential mortgage backed securities (RMBS) backed by “seasoned” loans.

The announcement cited the inability to obtain payment histories and other updated loan data from collapsed orginators. Instead of obtaining this data or reviewing outdated practices of orginators that still stand, Moody’s altered its targeted criteria in order to better gauge the loan quality, according to the announcement.

Moody’s will look to obtain a minimum 12-month pay history of the “seasoned” loan in order for the loan to be eligible for an investment grading. Moody’s would consider a pay history less than 12 months, but that loan will most likely not receive a rating.

Also, updated property values are required for the “seasoned” loans. Automated valuation models (AVM), broker price opinions (BPO) or form appraisals qualify. The date of the updated property value will also be provided to Moody’s, and will be no older than 120 days upon submission, according to the announcement.

Updated FICO scores, occupancy, modification information, reserves at the tie of closing and the job title and industry of the borrower will be required for a rating.

Moody's revisions come amid continued downgrades of RMBS by credit-rating agencies like Moody's and Fitch Ratings. The downgrades forced regulators to bolster capital requirements on insurance companies — like life insurance companies — that hold RMBS bonds as investments.

The American Council of Life Insurers (ACLI) sent a proposal to the National Association of Insurance Commissioners to modify current ratings for RMBS as well as  risk-based capital requirements.

“To overcome this rating deficiency we recommend a rating proposal that recognizes both the likelihood of loss and the severity of loss,” the proposal reads. “Life companies will appropriately hold more RBC [risk based capital] than before the recent RMBS downgrades, but will not be subjected to volatile RBC requirements primarily based on the first dollar of loss ratings methodology.”

Write to Jon Prior.



Origination/Lending
Kenneth Bacon, executive vice president of the Fannie Mae multifamily mortgage business, is retiring after 18 years at the mortgage...

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Servicing/Default
The serious delinquency rate for Federal Housing Administration mortgages reached 9.6% in December, the highest level in more than two...

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