Archive for September, 2009
Freddie Mac’s (FRE: 0.00 N/A) volume of purchased refinanced loans grew in August as the mortgage giant’s single-family delinquencies continued to swell.
Freddie reported $47.8bn in issuances for August, up from $44bn in July and almost doubling the $25.7bn in August of 2008.
The total mortgage portfolio also showed an increase at an annualized rate of 3.7% in August. Refinanced mortgage purchases made up $35.6bn, a slight increase from $34.1bn in July, according to Freddie’s monthly volume summary.
The net amount of mortgage purchases or sales agreements made for Freddie’s mortgage-related investments portfolio totaled $12.1bn, a slight bump from $11bn during July.
But 90-day single-family delinquencies stayed continued to increase for Freddie. In August, the portfolio had a 3.13% delinquency rate, an increase from 2.95% in July and 1.11% in August of 2008. Every month between August of last year and the latest monthly summary showed an increase in delinquencies.
But multifamily loans were 0.1% delinquent for August, slightly down from 0.11% in July.
Write to Jon Prior.
The market for commercial-backed securities (CMBS) experienced a rally last week as spreads narrowed following new tax rules for real estate mortgage investment conduits (REMICs).
Spreads, the difference in yield between a bond and its benchmark (here the swap rate), continued a slow but steady rally Tuesday, according to CMBS and commercial mortgage information provider Trepp.
Ten-year triple-A spreads came in anywhere from 5 to 20 bps on the day, bringing 10-year triple-A spreads tighter by 75 to 80 bps from the end of August, Trepp said.
Narrower spreads indicate greater demand for CMBS bonds. At the same time, demand is also rising for ratings on CMBS, according to credit-rating agency Realpoint.
The National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) recently voted to include Realpoint as an Acceptable Rating Organization, meaning US insurance companies can now use its CMBS ratings to calculate capital strength and required reserves. Realpoint said it evaluates each CMBS deal on a monthly basis, as riskier holdings require greater capital reserves at the insurance companies.
"Our recognition by the NAIC was driven by strong investor support from the insurance industry," said Realpoint CEO Rob Dobilas in a statement. "This action by the NAIC, and the insurance industry as a whole, indicates that investors and regulators recognize that positive change in the ratings business is necessary to restore confidence in the structured-finance markets."
Write to Diana Golobay.
Freddie Mac (FRE: 0.00 N/A) servicers received updated requirements for modifying distressed loans through the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP).
HAMP provides cap incentives to servicers for the modifications of loans on the verge of foreclosure and adjusts those caps based on performance.
The new requirements require servicers, by Nov. 1, 2009, to evaluate and process mortgages for HAMP with Workout Prospector, an updated software package that will retire the Borrower Qualification Worksheet, according to the bulletin sent from Freddie Mac.
Servicers must also use the property value provided by Workout Prospector, and effective Jan. 1, 2010, Freddie Mac will not publish the report of property values for borrowers who are 30-plus days delinquent on its Web site.
The new requirements also retire the Program Performance Reporting spreadsheet, or the “Weekly Summary.” To replace it, servicers must submit to Freddie Mac data files and a solicitation-activity summary via e-mail on a weekly basis.
Effective Sept. 30, 2009, servicers must begin using the HAMP Modification Agreement, HAMP Hardship Affadavit and Trial Period Plan, which will allow servicers to cover a wider range of loan document features and reduce the amount of authorized changes. The revisions will also gather consent to share personal and financial first-lien modification data, according to the bulletin.
Write to Jon Prior.
The amount of vituperative speech and ambient hate in public “debate” has led me to strictly ration my daily dose of “the news.” So I might be the last person in America to have noticed that the left and right fringes have finally found a cause that unites them. It’s “Audit the Fed.” Right and left alike can now raise their fists and call Ben Bernanke “a criminal.”
The flag is carried by career Fed-disser, Congressman Ron Paul, whose bill H.R. 1207, The Federal Reserve Transparency Act, currently has 292 co-sponsors and is backed by a viral internet campaign domiciled on Paul’s campaign for liberty, but trans-linked throughout the net.
I stumbled on the call to sign the petition and to ask my Congresspeople to support it at alternet.org, an otherwise left-leaning news and blog aggregator. Alternet has it posted as one of their top 10 campaigns, under the blurb, “The Federal Reserve is responsible for the distribution of trillions in taxpayer money. But where did it go?”
I was astounded to find “audit the Fed” promoted alongside campaigns to “stop politicians from hooliganizing health reform,” “protect President Obama,” and “bring Chevron to account.”
And it’s not just Alternet in bed with the opposition. On the Huffington Post, I found a link to Wall Street Journal interview with Ron Paul, “Audit the Fed, Then End It.” The link came to Huffington Post via disinfo, a site that bills itself as progressive, yet not closed to conservative ideas. At the yet more liberal The Nation, William Greider, proclaiming last July against giving the Fed more power in the Administration’s plan for reordering financial regulation, quotes himself telling an old friend and now retired Fed staffer, “We think that it would be a good time to dismantle the temple. Democratize the Fed. Or tear it down. Create something new in its place that’s accountable to the public.”
By accountable to the public he means to Congress. Ignoring that there is a lively debate going on whether Congress is as accountable to voters as it is to special interests that finance its campaigns. Ignoring that, if you listen to floor debate or the questions elected representatives ask in hearings, you’ll realize too few of them actually know the difference between reserve requirements and capital requirements, or how bank reserves are related to the supply of money and credit. In other words, are they equipped to closely monitor the Fed? To second guess the deliberations of the FOMC? To opine whether a coupon pass or system RPs would be more effective at a specific point in time?
But what shocks me more than this weird alliance is that the campaign against the Fed is promoted with blatant falsehoods, untruths that neither its liberal nor conservative supporters have bothered to question.
First of all, the Federal Reserve is NOT responsible for the distribution of trillions in taxpayer money. The Fed does not fund its security purchases, loans, and liquidity facilities with tax dollars.
The Fed funds assets with reserve deposits of member banks. (The mechanism roughly speaking is that a loan or the purchase of a security, for instance, is offset by a credit to the reserve account of a bank.) The profit earned on the Fed’s assets is considerable, and most of its revenue – after paying expenses – is turned over to the U.S. Treasury.
From 1914 to the present, about 95 percent of the Reserve Banks’ net earnings have been paid into the Treasury. During 2007, the Federal Reserve paid approximately $34.437 billion of their $41.941 billion total income to the U.S. Treasury.
Second, except for a list of the actual transactions, the dates, amounts and counterparties’ names, the Fed is quite forthcoming about its activities. On a weekly basis the Fed reports “Factors Affecting Reserve Balances of Depository Institutions and Condition Statement of Federal Reserve Banks (Statistical Release H.4.1, easily found on federalreserve.gov). In addition, there are System Monthly Reports on Credit and Liquidity Programs, and a variety of reports pursuant to Section 129 of the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008: regular updates, updates specific to AIG, Bank of America, Bear Stearns, Citigroup and the various emergency funding facilities. Then there’s a massive annual report. This includes an independent audit – by a Big Four audit firm – of the system. The Federal Reserve also has posted readable explanations of its programs and the data they produce on its website. It’s not sexy stuff, but it represents a sincere attempt to dispel the mystery and misunderstanding about Fed operations.
One wonders how many members of the Congress or the public has attempted to absorb this information BEFORE calling the Fed to task. Certainly, an electorate alert to the possibility of being misled by demagogues might want to read a bit of it BEFORE signing petitions and importuning their Congresspeople. Or, for a kind of cliff notes, try a thoughtful and readable article from by IMF analyst Peter Stella, “The Federal Reserve System Balance Sheet: What Happened and Why it Matters.”
Moreover, the Fed IS audited by the GAO – it completed 7 specific audit projects in 2008 and another 8 were open at the start of this year. Certain functions, such as transactions with foreign central banks and open market operations, are excluded from the GAO’s audit. Two arguments are advanced for this exclusion – to preserve the Fed’s independence from the vagaries of politics and to preserve the prophylactic action of the discount window facility in preventing banking panics and bank runs. I think they are good arguments – but I’ll save that topic for another time. My point is that the more fevered supporters of the audit-the-Fed campaign speak as if there were no audits, no reports, and no disclosure.
For example, the Campaign for Liberty petition, which states:
Whereas the Federal Reserve refuses to give a public accounting of the trillions in recent taxpayer-backed loans; and Whereas, Congress has the responsibility to force a public audit of the Federal Reserve, and the American people deserve to know how their tax dollars are being spent and the currency inflated; and Whereas, allowing the Fed to remain out of control and shrouded in secrecy clearly allows for abuse and the continued stealing of our tax dollars….
On one of the blog sites I visited following this confederacy of misleaders and know-nothings around the web, someone had left in comment a list of specific GAO audits. It was followed by another comment, from a more credulous bloke who said, “If this was true, wouldn’t all these authorities have known it and told us so?”
In other words, the GAO can’t possibly have audited the Fed because Congressman Paul hasn’t mentioned it.
If you’re not a libertarian, but instead a liberal, let William Greider mislead you: “During the past year, the Fed has flooded the streets with money—distributing trillions of dollars to banks, financial markets and commercial interests—in an attempt to revive the credit system and get the economy growing again.” If that money had actually flooded the streets, it would have done so through the normal process of bank money creation, as they converted the excess reserves created by the allegedly out-of-control Fed into loans to commercial interests and households.
Still, Greider is not entirely off base. Residential streets have benefited from the Fed’s activities. About half the net increase in Fed assets over the last year (as of September 17, 2009), is the result of MBS purchases. Those purchases siphoned funds, at sharply lower rates of interest than would have been offered if the decimated ranks of institutional investors had been required to absorb the supply of MBS unaided. The Fed purchases gave a modest boost to home buying and, by lowering mortgage rates, allowed many families to refinance unto lower cost mortgages, avoiding default or increasing their discretionary incomes. Another $42 billion of TALF loans have revived securitization of credit cards, auto loans and other vanilla ABS.
But imagine if Congress had a hand in authorizing the MBS purchase and TALF programs. First, the weeks of learning curve. And the partisan debate, likely starting before any particulars are announced. The final, Congressionally authorized program would have looked like the mythical camel – a horse designed by a committee. And arrived 6 months to a year too late. Or worse. If either program inspired the kind of opposition that, say, health care reform has inspired, the only outcome might have been a muddy, bloody battlefield.
The market continues to underestimate the strength of the emerging global economic recovery as strong growth outlooks shift from Asia to Western economies, according to new research from Barclays Capital, the investment banking division of Barclays Bank.
Barclays Capital (BarCap) expects to see a further upside in risky assets, while the market will grow more vulnerable to policy tightening.
"We first recommended that investors re-engage in risky assets in March of this year, well ahead of the consensus," said Larry Kantor, head of research at BarCap. "We are reiterating that view now as we see a stronger global recovery than the market expects. We have raised our GDP forecast for the US and expect the unemployment rate in the US to be in a downtrend by the end of the year."
Kantor added: "If our expectations prove correct, then the market will begin to look for signs of policy tightening and the current favorable window for investors will close."
In the mean time, however, BarCap recommends favoring equities over corporate credit. The firm suggested investors focus on sectors that benefit from business-led recovery, including industrials and technology.
Recovery strength looks ready to shift from the emerging Asia to the major developed economies including Europe, which will be led by the US economy. Downward momentum of the dollar should continue in the near-term as risk appetite improves, BarCap said.
BarCap mortgage-backed securities (MBS) analysts and economists seemed less optimistic this week in terms of house prices. Despite recent positives from the Case-Shiller index, BarCap analysts indicated in a Tuesday conference call that improvements resulted from "unsustainably low" rates of housing units rolling from foreclosure to real estate-owned status. These roll rates should accelerate in coming months as seasonally strong voluntary sales fade, BarCap noted, adding this should put additional pressure on house prices.
"[BarCap analysts] now expect another 8% decline in home prices as measured by Case-Shiller (the FHFA equivalent would be another 3% decline) for a total peak-to-trough decline of 36%, with the bottoming to occur in 2Q10," the firm said in a research note on the call. "While these estimates make them more bullish than most fixed income investors, we suspect this conclusion is more bearish than is priced into the equity markets, which appear to have responded to recent positive Case-Shiller readings by aggressively bidding up of stocks with exposure to mortgage credit risk such as the mortgage insurers in a way that reflects an optimism that home prices have stabilized."
As distressed house supply continues to act as a "primary driver of home prices," BarCap analysts expect the correlation between foreclosures and home prices to increase once the pace of foreclosure liquidations increases even after government programs designed to slow the pace of distressed sales.
Amherst Securities Group analysts also see a large overhang of 7m distressed units in the US shadow inventory of foreclosures. As these loans liquidate in months to come, Amherst expects to see recent gains in house prices to falter.
Write to Diana Golobay.
Motivity Solutions made its business intelligence and reporting functions available on mobile devices.
The Denver-based software provider designed Movation Business Management Platform and a Federal Housing Administration (FHA) risk mitigation solution for the mortgage industry.
The new mobility allows customers to view real-time business intelligence and reports, said Tyler Sherman, CEO of Motivity Solutions.
Its Business Management Platform combines existing systems and turns multiple data sources into information through dashboards, scorecards and intelligent reporting.
Movation also automates work flow and activity queues, document imaging and content management. Its 100% web-based systems eased the mobility transition.
Write to Jon Prior.
Mortgage rates held steady at last week’s levels and maintained three-month lows for the week ending September 24, according to Freddie Mac (FRE: 0.00 N/A).
The average rate for 30-year fixed rate mortgages (FRM) hovered at 5.04% with a 0.6 point, unmoved from last week. At this time last year, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.09%.
The 15-year FRM registered 4.46% with an average 0.6 point down slightly from last week when it averaged 4.47%. A year ago, the 15-year FRM averaged 5.77%.
The five-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) remained unchanged from last week at 4.51% with an average 0.5 point. This time last year, the five-year ARM averaged 6.02%.
The one-year Treasury indexed ARM averaged 4.52% with an average 0.6 point, dropping from 4.58% last week and from 5.03% a year ago.
In its September 23rd policy statement, the Federal Reserve indicated that it plans to keep its benchmark interest rate exceptionally low for an extended period, according the Freddie Mac release.
According to separate survey by Bankrate.com of large US lenders, mortgage rates dropped slightly from last week.
The 30-year FRM dipped to 5.36% from 5.38%. The 15-year FRM increased to 4.74% from 4.72% a week ago, and the five-year ARM fell to 4.8% from 4.89% a week ago.
Write to Jon Prior.
August home sales weakened after strong gains in July but still hold above volume from a year ago, according the National Association of Realtors (NAR).
Existing home sales slowed from the previous month by 2.7% to a seasonally adjusted rate of 5.1m units in August. Sales increased, however, by 3.4% from August 2008. In the last four months sales have increased 15.2%.
The total housing inventory fell in August by 10.8% to 3.62m homes for sale. That total represents a 8.5-month supply based on the current sales pace, an estimation that dropped from a 9.3-month supply in July, according to NAR.
The national median existing home price dropped 12.5% from last year to $177,700, according NAR.
The continued growth is due in large part to the first-time homebuyer tax credit, said Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist. The credit, which gives qualifying buyers up to $8,000 in tax refunds, is estimated by a recent Campbell Communications survey to have added 357,000 additional home sales so far in 2009.
"Home sales retrenched from a very strong improvement in July but continue to be much higher than before the stimulus. The first-time buyer tax credit is having the intended impact of bringing buyers into the market, allowing them to take advantage of very favorable affordability conditions," Yun said.
First-time homebuyers purchased 30% of homes in August, and distressed purchases made up 31% of transactions, the same totals as July, according to a survey from NAR.
"The recent trend shows broad improvement in most of the country, but with an expected rise in foreclosures over the next 12 months we need to maintain a healthy level of ready buyers to absorb the inventory,” Yun said. “An extension of the tax credit is critical to preserve incentives for financially qualified buyers to enter the market.”
Last week, the US Senate introduced a bill to extend the tax credit by six months after the November 30 expiration date.
Write to Jon Prior.
The growth in housing prices between its lowest point of the year in March to the end of July reached a higher point than expected from historical price trends, according to Radar Logic’s RPX monthly composite, which measures housing prices in major US markets.
From March 30 to July 23, 2009, the composite grew by 7.2%, compared to the 5.4% average gain over that same period over the last 10 years.
“Had the increase in the RPX Composite been the result of seasonal factors alone, one would expect the seasonally adjusted index to remain flat over that period,” researchers said. “The fact that it increased indicates that the strength in home prices exceeds what one would expect given seasonal factors alone.”
The Composite is still roughly 29% below its peak in June 2007, according to the report. And, if historical trends continue, the colder autumn season and the start of the school will drive down demand.
But prevalent negative equity, conservative mortgage underwriting, the expiration or extension of government incentives like the first-time home buyer tax credit could also influence demand in the near future, according to researchers.
However, HousingWire reported last week that a US Senate bill seeks to extend the homebuyer tax credit for six months.
According the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the supply of homes is large and likely to increase from the inventory of 4m existing homes in July, which is “only a fraction of the large and growing inventory of foreclosed homes,” according to Radar Logic's Composite index.
Banks that only trickle their REO inventory on to the housing market tend to reduce the distressed-property impact on prices.
“If the current trend continues and the demand for housing holds up, home prices could continue to recover despite the record number of foreclosures,” researchers said.
But Amherst Securities Group analysts on Wednesday took a less optimistic tone, indicating a shadow inventory of 7m loans destined for liquidation will likely eliminate some positive housing signs seen in the last few months.
Write to Jon Prior.













It's a small homebuyers incentive, after all.
This weekend only, anyone who buys a custom built home from KB Home Mortgage, a subsidiary of Bank of America (BAC: 7.29 -0.14%) will receive as part of the package a "Walt Disney Dream Room."
The construction company will agree to deck out a fully-licensed Disney-themed room in the home with either a calming green Classic Pooh theme, a royal Cinderella 'palace', a chic Cars room or a – gulp – Hannah Montana Hangout so a kid can “take a break from the spotlight.”
Sorry, Little Mermaid fans, there's just no room under the sea for other dream room designs. However, even if a potential buyer who visits a KB Home over the weekend can't decide right away, they can still pick up a Disney Beanz plush toy (again four choices: a Mickey Mouse, Minnie Mouse, Goofy or Pluto).
The estimated retail value of the room is between $1,349 and $1,669, and homebuyers must finance with KB Home Mortgage.
It's another example of developers trying to boost demand, as the US Senate toys with the idea of extending the first-time homebuyer tax credit.
After all, with housing prices where they are now, it’s the perfect time to buy a new home “at a price that’s just magical.”
Write to Jon Prior.
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