Archive for March, 2009
A slight breath of fresh air for the labor market, as first-time applications for state unemployment benefits eased 12,000 to a seasonally-adjusted 646,000 in the week ending March 14, the Labor Department said Thursday.
Nonetheless, the total number of Americans on the benefits roll after drawing at least one week of aid mounted to a record 5.47 million, indicating that job openings are few and far between as companies continue to cut costs.
“We’re going to see some ugly numbers for a number of months,” Julia Coronado, a senior economist at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “March is going to be every bit as bad” for payroll losses as the declines in excess of 650,000 in the past three months, she said.
The four week moving average of new jobless claims, which can sometimes smooth volatility, rose 3,750 to 654,750 — the highest level in 26 years. The insured unemployment rate – the proportion of covered workers who are receiving benefits – rose by two-tenths of a percentage to 4.1 percent, also the highest in nearly 26 years
The largest increases in initial claims were in Indiana — where 5,603 people filed a claim in the week ending March 7 — Pennsylvania, Texas, Florida and Michigan. The largest decreases were seen in New York — where initial claims dropped by a whopping 11,218 — Connecticut, Tennessee, California and Oregon.
Write to Kelly Curran at kelly.curran@housingwire.com.
Disclosure: The author held no relevant investment positions when this story was published. Indirect holdings may exist via mutual fund investments. HW reporters and writers follow a strict disclosure policy, the first in the mortgage trade
After news that Insurance giant American International Group Inc. (AIG: 25.25 +0.44%) will be ordered to return to the Treasury Department $165 million — the amount it just payed out in executive bonuses — AIG CEO asked Wednesday afternoon for some of the recipients of those bonuses to return half the money. The company is under intense fire for awarding the bonuses while being kept afloat by more than $170 billion in bailout funds.
A tranche of the $165 million in retention bonuses were contractually committed to employees within the financial products division — "the very division most culpable for the rapid deterioration of AIG," wrote Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner in a letter to Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi.
Although considerably outraged, Geithner said the government couldn't legally block the payments, which were awarded under contracts signed before the government stepped in with billions of dollars to prevent AIG from going belly up last year.
But as of Wednesday, those who have received bonuses of $100,000 or more have been asked to return at least half those payments, AIG CEO Edward Libby told a House sub-committee during a special hearing Wednesday. "Some have already offered to return 100 percent," he said.
The hearing was a long, grueling one for CEO Liddy who took the reins of the troubled firm after the bonuses in question were negotiated in April 2008. He was drilled by a number of congressional leaders and even asked by Chairman of the House Financial Services Committee Barney Frank to submit the names of those executives who did not comply with the request to return their bonuses.
The bottome line is the Treasury wants to insure that taxpayers are compensated. In Geithner's letter to Pelosi, the plan was to impose on AIG a contractual commitment to pay the Treasury from the operations of the company the amount of the retention awards just paid. "In addition, we will deduct from the $30 billion in assistance an amount equal to the amount of those payments," Geithner wrote.
"We should look at AIG as owner of the company," said Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.) at a recent press conference — the U.S. government currently owns about 80 percent of AIG. "The time has come to exercise our rights as owner rather than interfering with contracts between two parties. You didn't perform, you don't get bonuses;" a theory which he reiterated at the hearing Wednesday.
Going forward, future AIG bonuses will be subject to the strict executive compensation provisions enacted by Congress in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, Geithner said. "We will continue our aggressive efforts to resolve the future status of AIG in a manner that will reduce the systematic risk to our financial system…"
Write to Kelly Curran at kelly.curran@housingwire.com.
Disclosure: The author held no relevant investment positions when this story was published. Indirect holdings may exist via mutual fund investments. HW reporters and writers follow a strict disclosure policy, the first in the mortgage trade
The Federal Open Market Committee released an official statement Wednesday acknowledging "the economy continues to contract" since its last meeting in January. The FOMC agreed — unsurprisingly — to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate to zero to 0.25 percent. The surprise came when the FOMC announced it would fund an additional $1.2 trillion to credit-unlocking efforts.
"To provide greater support to mortgage lending and housing markets, the Committee decided today to increase the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet further by purchasing up to an additional $750 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities, bringing its total purchases of these securities to up to $1.25 trillion this year, and to increase its purchases of agency debt this year by up to $100 billion to a total of up to $200 billion," Fed officials said in the statement.
The massive increase to its MBS purchasing program is designed to stimulate mortgage lending by freeing up billions of dollars of credit in a credit-tight market. The FOMC also agreed to purchase up to $300 billion in Treasury securities during the next six months. All together, the Fed pledged another $1.15 trillion to the fight against frozen credit.
The Fed has already bought more than $217 billion in agency MBS from government-sponsored entities Fannie Mae (FNM: 0.00 N/A), Freddie Mac (FRE: 0.00 N/A) and Ginnie Mae. The Fed’s assets shrank $13.77 billion in the week ending March 11, according to a balance sheet summary released late last week. The data show the Fed’s consolidated balance sheet fell to a value of $1.88 trillion from the previous week, but is up almost $1.01 trillion from the year-ago week ended March 12, 2008.
Write to Diana Golobay at diana.golobay@housingwire.com.
Disclosure: The author held no relevant investment positions when this story was published. Indirect holdings may exist via mutual fund investments. HW reporters and writers follow a strict disclosure policy, the first in the mortgage trade.
The U.S. Treasury Department purchased $1.45 billion in preferred stock from 19 banks and financial institutions in states across the country Friday. According to data released Monday by the Treasury, the weekly injections through the Capital Purchase Program (CPP) increased five-fold over the previous week's $284.7 million. The substantial increase in capital funds distributed was driven by a $1.22 billion stock purchase from Discover Financial Services (DFS: 27.14 -2.93%).
Ohio-based First Place Financial Corp. (FPFC: 0.00 N/A) came in second behind Discover as the largest capital injection Friday, taking $72.9 million. Illinois-based firms received the most capital, with Caitlin-based Butler Point, Inc.'s $607,000 joining Riverwoods-based Discover's capital injections. The first Washington, D.C.-based firm to receive TARP funds, IBW Financial Corp., received $6 million. The smallest capital injection of the day — $425,000 — went to Haviland, Kan.-based Haviland Bancshares Inc.
Friday's capital injections consequentially showed a lopsided distribution of daily funds. According to the Treasury's data, 92 percent of daily funds went to five public institutions and only 8 percent of daily funds went to 14 private institutions on Friday. Even taking into account Discover's substantial capital infusion, the distribution seems grossly uneven after CPP funds that on March 6 were split relatively evenly between publicly traded firms — 45 percent — and privately held firms — 55 percent. All told, the Treasury has distributed — and promised — $328.28 billion through its various TARP programs, including the CPP, the Targeted Investment Program, the Systemically Significant Failing Institutions program, the Asset Guarantee Program and the TALF.
Write to Diana Golobay at diana.golobay@housingwire.com.
Disclosure: The author held no relevant investment positions when this story was published. Indirect holdings may exist via mutual fund investments. HW reporters and writers follow a strict disclosure policy, the first in the mortgage trade.
Fannie Mae's (FNM: 0.00 N/A) refinancing volume jumped to more than $41 billion in February, nearly three times the refinancing volume the company experienced during the month of January and the largest refinancing volume in nearly a year, the company said Wednesday.
"Borrowers are increasingly taking advantage of the low mortgage rates available in the market today," said Tom Lund, executive vice president, Single-Family Mortgage Business. "We anticipate that volumes will increase even more as millions of additional homeowners become eligible to refinance under the President's Making Home Affordable plan."
Fannie Mae reported that more than 100,000 borrowers have already accessed its online mailbox to inquire about their eligibility for refinancing under the Obama Administration's refinancing plan, and about 50,000 callers have contacted Fannie Mae's national hotline since the plan was announced. The company said it has also launched a new online look-up tool on its Web site that will allow borrowers to quickly determine if they have a Fannie Mae-held mortgage — a determining factor in whether a borrower is eligible for the program.
A separate report Tuesday emphasized the growing number of inquiries over the new plan. The Homeownership Preservation Foundation, which operates a separate hotline, Homeowner’s HOPE Hotline — one meant to counsel homeowners – announced that over 13,500 homeowners have reached out to its free service each day since the President's announcement of the program, about three times the average number of daily calls received prior to the release of the program.
The Making Home Affordable program is made up of two levels of aid — one being a refinance program effective for an estimated 4 to 5 million homeowners. And Given the recent historically low mortgage rates, homeowners have a strong incentive to try and refinance. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported last week an 11.3 percent week-over-week surge in application volume –two-thirds of which were from homeowners who wanted to refinance.
Write to Kelly Curran at kelly.curran@housingwire.com.
Disclosure: The author held no relevant investment positions when this story was published. Indirect holdings may exist via mutual fund investments. HW reporters and writers follow a strict disclosure policy, the first in the mortgage trade
The majority of 21 top financial institutions that have received government funds through the Troubled Asset Relief Program overall lent more in January than they did a month earlier, according to a survey released this week by the U.S. Treasury Department. The reported data show that mortgage originations "rose significantly in January, as lower interest rates fueled a strong demand to refinance home mortgages," the U.S. Treasury Department said in a media statement. Many of the banks studied in the survey reported a volume of refinance loans that had more than doubled in a month and sometimes more than tripled in the last two months. Along with the refi popularity, however, many banks also posted a corresponding drop in mortgage loan volume for new purchases, declining as much as half since November in many cases.
The median 110 percent increase in refinancing over December's data "translates to lower mortgage payments for families across the U.S.," Treasury said in an effort to shed light on the positive side of the numbers while not mentioning the declining home purchase loan volume. After all, "given the dramatically worsening economic conditions during January…lending levels would likely have been lower without the capital provided to banks through the [Capital Purchase Program]," Treasury officials said. Almost 500 banks in 48 states have participated in the CPP, receiving a combined $198.5 billion as of March 13.
Total mortgage originations at Bank of America Corp. (BAC: 7.29 -0.14%) — which has received $25 billion through the CPP — increased to $22.9 billion in January, from $15.4 billion a month earlier. While refinance loans at the bank more than doubled to $16.5 billion in January from $7.7 billion, new purchase loans eased to $6.3 billion from $7.7 billion a month earlier. As late in 2008 as November, refis accounted for less than $5 billion in originations, while new purchases accounted for $6.6 billion. The reversal of the refi-to-purchase ratio in recent months illustrates the surge in refi popularity as mortgage rates held at historic lows and borrowers found themselves increasingly underwater on their current mortgages.
"Bank of America lent $23 billion through its mortgage unit ($4.4 billion of that to low‐ and moderate-income borrowers), helping more than 100,000 Americans purchase a home or save money on the home they already own in the month of January alone," bank officials said in the detailed survey of bank lending.
Citigroup Inc. (C: 30.87 +1.61%), despite its negative media exposure in recent weeks, reported mortgage originations were up to $7.8 billion in January from $5.5 billion in December. The bank followed the popular trend of ballooning refinance loan volume and declining new purchase loan volume from recent months. Citi posted $1.3 billion in refi originations in January from $858 million, and $278 million in new purchase mortgages in January from $489 million a month earlier.
Mortgage originations at Bank of New York Mellon Corp. (BK: 20.23 +1.15%) — which received $3 billion fromt he CPP — increased to $97 million in January from $69 million a month earlier, with refinance volume having more than doubled from $25 million in December. Although the bank's overall data have recovered from recent monthly declines from its October levels, the volume of mortgage originations for new purchases slipped to $29 million in January from $44 million the month before, $37 million in November and $52 million in October. The data would suggest borrowers looking to purchase homes have shopped around for lenders other than BoNY Mellon.
Of course, as bank officials pointed out in the detailed survey, BoNY Mellon's business model differs from that of other major TARP fund recipients in that it does not focus on retail or mortgage banking, and has instead taken up the fight against frozen capital on other grounds. "Specifically, we have purchased mortgage-backed securities and debentures issued by U.S. government-sponsored agencies to support efforts to increase the amount of money available to lend to qualified borrowers in the residential housing market," the bank said.
Write to Diana Golobay at diana.golobay@housingwire.com.
Disclosure: The author held no relevant investment positions when this story was published. Indirect holdings may exist via mutual fund investments. HW reporters and writers follow a strict disclosure policy, the first in the mortgage trade.
The Homeownership Preservation Foundation (HPF), which operates the Homeowner’s HOPE Hotline, announced Tuesday that more than 124,000 homeowners have called the hotline since President Obama announced his “Making Home Affordable” plan on March 4, 2009. On average, 13,500 homeowners have reached out to the Hotline each day since the announcement, about three times the average number of daily calls the Hotline received prior to the release of the president’s program.
The Making Home Affordable program is made up of two levels of aid — a refinance program effective for an estimated 4 to 5 million homeowners and a modification program estimated to reach between 3 and 4 million homeowners. The plan offers servicer and borrower incentives, designed in such a way as to allow for immediate modifications, in hopes of preventing unnecessary foreclosures. The plan has "clearly been a catalyst for homeowners to reach out for help,” said Colleen Hernandez, HPF’s president and executive director.
Hernandez said the increase in volume was not a surprise. “The Homeowner’s HOPE Hotline is still the only place to which homeowners may turn 24 hours a day, 7 days a week for free housing counseling assistance from counseling agencies certified by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development,” she said. Not to mention, counseling is provided in English, Spanish, and 19 other languages.
The Homeowner’s HOPE Hotline has received more than 390,000 calls thus far in 2009, compared to the approximately 20,000 calls received in the same period in 2007. In 2008, the Hotline received a total of 1.2 million calls. If the current pace of calls continues through 2009, the Hotline will receive more than 1.5 million calls, according to the agency's press release.
The increase in calls showcases the growing demand for housing counseling services — especially free services. The Homeownership Preservation Foundation said the recent surge in calls to the hotline may require homeowners to be more patient than they have in the past. But “the Homeowner’s Hope Hotline is committed to helping as many homeowners as possible get the help they need and we’ll work as quickly as possible to make that happen.”
Write to Kelly Curran at kelly.curran@housingwire.com.
Disclosure: The author held no relevant investment positions when this story was published. Indirect holdings may exist via mutual fund investments. HW reporters and writers follow a strict disclosure policy, the first in the mortgage trade
Raw mortgage application volume rose 21.2 percent for the week ending March 13, according to a survey published Wednesday by the Mortgage Bankers Association. It was the second consecutive week of increased raw activity, while refinancing applications continued to rise, surging 29.6 percent over the previous week. Purchase application activity also rose slightly, coming in 1.5 percent higher than last week, when it had posted a 7 percent increase. These data suggest refi products might be edging back to their recent popular highs and interest in home purchases, while also rising, is not keeping up with the refi popularity.
A separate study conducted by Mortgage Maxx LLC found that household application activity rose 6.5 percent the same week. It was the first week household activity has risen since mid-February. Mortgage Application Index — or MAX — publisher Paul Descloux in his commentary on the index cautioned against undue optimism in the face of weekly gains in activity.
"Mortgage applications continue to keep pace well below year-to-date highs," he wrote. "Though the Fed chairman did an empathetic presentation for the masses while other government talking heads try to espouse courage, we’ll have to see if the latest words can really put a floor in housing. However not much has changed in a week. Consumer psyche is traumatized, twenty percent of all home owners have slipped over the negative equity cliff, and whole swaths of potential mortgagors are unable to qualify."
The MBA, which also tracks mortgage interest rates, found rates eased across the board in the week, with 30-year fixed rates down to 4.89 percent from 4.96 percent a week earlier. Meanwhile, 15-year fixed rates slipped down slightly to 4.52 percent from 4.54 percent the week before, and one-year adjustable-rate mortgages averaged a 6.2 percent interest rate, down slightly from 6.21 a week earlier. With rates inching downward and hype over President Barack Obama's foreclosure prevention plan no doubt causing an influx of interest, it stands to reason refinance products would take the cake. The question remains whether the popularity will last, and just how many applications translate into closed loans.
Visit www.mbaa.org and www.mortgagemaxx.us for further details.
Write to Diana Golobay at diana.golobay@housingwire.com.
At last week’s House hearing on mark-to-market accounting, representatives from both sides of the aisle blamed accounting standards for skewering bank balance sheets and demanded, as Congressman Paul Kanjorski (D-PA) put it, that “the Financial Accounting Standards Board and the Securities and Exchange Commission to do the jobs they are required to do. Emergency situations require expeditious action, not academic treatises. They must act quickly.”
The most irate committee members asserted that, if FASB didn’t act, Congress would. That was Thursday, March 12, and FASB did not call their bluff. By end of day Friday the 13th, FASB had sent notice it would be discussing fair value measurement and other-than-temporary-impairment first thing March 16 (yesterday morning).
The definition of fair value in FAS 157 has always allowed for the use of analysis and judgment when no orderly market exists or the only market-based inputs available are derived from distressed transactions. However, practice — and the considerable legal liability imposed on auditors by Sarbanes-Oxley — have resulted in a continued emphasis on the use of stale and/or distressed transaction pricing. In addition, reporting entities have difficulty generating evidence that transactions from which their pricing inputs were derived were distressed. In brief, banks have protested they are valuing their assets at fire sale prices, far below their economic value or the price they would fetch if the markets would “unclog.”
The proposed guidance attempts yet again to clarify these issues. In order to evaluate if a significant adjustment to quoted prices, security holders would use a two-step process.
First, determine if factors exist that indicate the market for the asset is inactive. These are the usual suspects – infrequent trades, low trading volume, stale prices, considerable variability among quotes, abnormal spread and bid-ask widening, and so forth.
If the market is demonstrably inactive, determine if a given price quote reflects a distressed transaction: was a normal marketing period allowed and were their multiple bidders? If yes to both, then the quoted price should be “considered” in estimating fair value, although adjustments might still be warranted.
If both cannot be demonstrated, then the security holder should estimate fair value using a Level 3 technique such as a present value technique. The necessary market inputs (spread, for example) cannot be solely derived from the distressed price.
Instead — and here is the tricky part — “the inputs should be reflective of an orderly (that is, not distressed or forced) transaction between market participants.”
How do you do that? The wittiest accountant I know (actually, he would still rank witty alongside a witty non-accountant) asks does that mean you go back to 2006 spreads to get a rate commensurate with the risk inherent in the asset as perceived by willing buyers and selling in non-distressed markets?
Think of it — was 2006 a world of make believe and denial, or a world a valid assessments of risk?
The fact is, under the proposed changes determinations of “distressed” and “orderly” will be very much in the eye of the holder. Those holders may be able to win more arguments with their auditors, but investors will have to work that much harder to figure out if Omega National Bank’s private label CMOs really are worth what they are reported to be worth.
And speaking of investors, will the market like Citigroup (C: 30.87 +1.61%) or Bank of America (BAC: 7.29 -0.14%) (I own securities issued by both) any better because fire sale prices have not been applied without adjustment to their “troubled” assets?
Next, OTTI guidance
The press has focused on the additional guidance for measuring fair value in inactive markets, but the changes to the guidance for other-than-temporary impairment (OTTI) may well be the “beef” of FASB’s response.
Charges for OTTI are what banks and their codependents in Congress, the media and the blogosphere are complaining about when they talk about millions of dollars of permanent writedowns when expected credit losses are only in the thousands. That’s the issue Kajorsky was referring to last Thursday when he spoke of the case of the Federal Home Loan Bank of Atlanta:
… Last September, the bank estimated that it would lose $44,000 in cash flows on three private label mortgage-backed securities starting in about 15 years. The magic of mark-to-market accounting required this relatively minor shortfall to be treated as an other-than-temporary-impairment loss of $87.3 million. I find that accounting result to be absurd. It fails to reflect economic reality. We must correct the rules to prevent such gross distortions.
Current accounting guidance requires holders of debt securities (not held for trading purposes) to (1) determine if all amounts will be received according to the contractual terms of the security, (2) determine if they have “the intention and ability” to hold the security until all contractual amounts are received.
If the answer to either step is no, then the security must be written down to its current market value. The amount of the write down — the difference between amortized cost and current fair value — is taken against earnings and reduces capital.
After deliberating several alternatives yesterday, FASB voted to propose a new treatment. Instead of determining whether it has “the intent and ability to hold a security to recovery” to find OTTI, the entity need only consider if it intends to sell the security or would be required to sell the security before recovering its cost basis.
If they intend to or anticipate they must sell, the entire impairment loss would be recognized in earnings (and sayonara capital, same as today). If NOT, then only the portion of impairment “representing credit losses” would be recognized in earnings and the balance of the “impairment loss” or difference between amortized cost and current fair value would be reflected in other comprehensive income (OCI).
At first blush, this looks like a big concession to critics of “the magic of mark-to-market accounting.” It provides regulatory relief — recall that losses accumulated in OCI are not included in calculations of regulatory capital. And they could be measured, using easier to achieve and more flexible Level 3 pricing.
But it does not resolve the biggest problem created by OTTI — as my witty accounting guru points out, it’s a DETERRENT to selling. If a bank sells a “toxic” or “troubled asset” it realizes a loss and destroys capital. As one of the irate Congressmen put it, they were calling on the standard setters to act now “to make these clogged assets marketable again.”
Which really begs the question, to whom would they be marketable? The fact is, the ranks of willing investors have been decimated. And the underlying risk has ballooned. An unknowable chunk of the underlying mortgages and consumer loans are backed by falling property values and owed by borrowers who have heard all about the bailouts for the undeserving, the overreaching borrowers who drove away, leaving the pets to starve in the empty house, the hope of bankruptcy relief, the buying of cars and TVs and whatever on home price appreciation.
Potential buyers of these clogged assets must weigh the non-zero risk that risk premia suggested by “distressed” transactions may not be wrong. The prudent will be asking, “is 2009 to 2012 as 2006 was to today?”
And while I have your attention, can I ask, how can the same Congress that is furious with banks for taking the bailout dough and not lending to reinvigorate spending and paying outsized compensation to undersized risk managers talk about suspending mark to market accounting?
Editor’s note: Linda Lowell is a 20-year-plus veteran of MBS and ABS research at a handful of Wall Street firms. She is currently principal of OffStreet Research LLC.
Disclosure: The author held investment positions in C and BAC when this story was published. Additional indirect holdings may exist via mutual fund investments.
Sen. Ted Kaufman, D-Del., in his first bill proposal since being sworn in to Congress in mid-January, submitted to the Securities and Exchange Commission on Monday a bipartisan legislation that aims to reinstate the so-called "uptick rule" that prohibited short sales from the Depression era until its repeal in mid-2007. “Abusive short selling is tantamount to fraud and market manipulation and must be stopped – now,” Kaufman said on the Senate floor late Monday. “The uptick rule should have never been repealed. To permit people to sell shares they don’t have and won’t be able to deliver turns investment into pure speculation. The time has come for this practice to stop.”
He was joined in the effort by Sen. Johnny Isakson, R-Ga., who announced Tuesday his co-sponsorship of the bill and who said he has since last fall been calling for reinstatement of the rule.
“Senator Kaufman has introduced a piece of legislation that is right for America, it is right for America's investors, and it is right for our stock market as it still languishes today somewhere down near what we hope is the bottom,” Isakson said during a speech on the Senate floor. “One way to ensure that bottom exists is to stop rewarding those who would feed off of it and instead reinstate good discipline that ensures good practices and allows the market to restore itself back to a good equilibrium.”
The legislation would "end abusive short selling" by restoring the rule that prohibited short sales of the securities of any financial institution unless the trade occurs at a price at least 5 cents higher than that of the last transaction. The legislation would prevent anyone from selling securities short without proof of a "legally enforceable right" to do so at that time. The restrictions would force short sellers to wait for stock prices to increase before selling and — the Senators hope — encourage a bit of market recovery.
“This is bigger than just one rule, however influential that rule is,” Kaufman said. “Markets all over the world continue to tumble because average investors have lost confidence that the markets work for them. Piece by piece, we must restore that faith. One important step is instituting sensible regulations. In this case – enacting a proven, time-tested rule – it’s an easy call.”
The SEC is slated to meet April 8 to vote on proposing a return of the rule.
Write to Diana Golobay at diana.golobay@housingwire.com.












