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Archive for March, 2009

Wednesday, March 25th, 2009

Spiraling anger over the bailout and bonuses of American International Group Inc. (AIG: 25.25 +0.44%), has brought to head the issue of regulatory power when it concerns large financial institutions that are not necessarily deposit-taking institutions insured by the government. The issue was taken up by the Obama administration Tuesday, when it began a full-fledged effort to expand the federal government’s power to seize control of any troubled financial institution deemed systematically important to the livelihood of the nation's financial system.

The federal government has long had the power to take over and close banks and other deposit-taking institutions whose deposits are insured by the government and therefore subject to detailed regulation. But currently, "there is no effective legal mechanism to unwind a non-bank financial institution like AIG," said Treasury secretary Timothy Geithner in a testimony before the House Financial Services Committee Tuesday.

The Obama administration and the Fed see an immediate need to extend the government's regulatory authority to insurance companies like A.I.G., hedge funds, investment banks, private equity firms and other financial institution considered "too big to fail."

"As we have seen with AIG, distress at large, interconnected, non-depository financial institutions can pose systemic risks just as distress at banks can," Geithner said.

The Treasury said Wednesday that new legislation — granting additional tools to address "systemically significant financial institutions" that fall outside of the current resolution regime under the FDIC — will be sent to Congress this week. According to a statement by the Treasury, the legislation would allow the government to put a firm — considered by the Treasury and FDIC as requiring emergency measures — into conservatorship or receivership and then to administer its reorganization or wind-down. Critics Critics question whether the Fed should play the decision-making role, instead of the Treasury and FDIC.

The Treasury said the bill would also reduce the need for taxpayer funds by enabling the federal agency as a conservator or receiver to sell or transfer the assets or liabilities of the institution in question, renegotiate institution's contracts and address the company's derivatives portfolio, hopefully reducing the potential for further disruption.

“It is precisely because of the lack of this authority that the A.I.G. situation has gotten worse,” Obama explained in a news conference Tuesday evening, where he also said the government could have handled the AIG bailout more effectively had it had the same power to seize large financial institutions as it did to take over failed banks.

The Treasury and the Fed each submitted their own proposals to the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday, and President Obama urged Congressional leaders to act quickly on the legislation. House Democrats said they hoped to bring a bill to the House floor within the next several weeks, according to a report by the New York Times.

If the measure passes, it would represent one of the largest permanent expansions of federal regulatory power in years, but Obama suggested Tuesday evening there would likely be "strong support" from the American people and Congress to grant the proposed authority.

Write to Kelly Curran at kelly.curran@housingwire.com.

Disclosure: The author held no relevant investment positions when this story was published. Indirect holdings may exist via mutual fund investments. HW reporters and writers follow a strict disclosure policy, the first in the mortgage trade.

Wednesday, March 25th, 2009

President Barack Obama is set to meet with a dozen bank leaders Friday, according to various reports. Sources told the Wall Street Journal that executives from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS: 111.77 +2.96%), JP Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM: 37.21 -0.75%) and Citigroup Inc. (C: 30.87 +1.61%) are among those that have been invited to the discussion. As a MarketWatch bulletin reports, the meeting will cover Obama's plans to "put the sector on a sounder footing."

The White House had not yet confirmed the meeting by the time this story was published, but anonymous sources close to the issue had spoken with multiple media outlets as to the itinerary of the discussion. "President Obama will…reiterate his belief that getting the economy back on track will require and understanding that each of us must look beyond our own short-term interests to the wider set of obligations we have to each other in order for America to succeed," sources told msnbc.com on Tuesday.

A Chase spokesperson confirmed to HousingWire the invitation to speak with Obama Friday had been received by the bank, although details on whether bank leaders would attend or what would be discussed were not yet available. HW's sources close to the issue have confirmed Goldman's Lloyd Blankfein and Citigroup's Vikram Pandit are among the leaders invited to speak with the President, although no details could be given regarding the agenda of the discussion. Citigroup and Goldman spokespeople did not return calls seeking official comment before this story was published.

A history of weak confidence
The Treasury Department released details Monday morning before market open of the latest approach to clear toxic loans and securities off of bank’s balance sheets. Saying that “the financial system is still working against economic recovery,” the Treasury said it will earmark up to $100 billion in funds from the Troubled Asset Relief Program, hoping to attract capital from private investors in order to generate $500 billion in purchasing power to buy legacy assets. The announcement sparked some comeback in investor confidence as stocks closed higher Monday.

But the rosiness of secretary Tim Geithner's new plan continues to be overshadowed by severe public and media criticism over the Treasury and Federal Reserve's failure to block the payment of some $165 million in bonuses to top employees of AIG Financial Products, the division largely blamed for the parent insurer's failure. The wave of blame and general search for a pariah in the face of weak financial institutions that have received TARP funds  — along with new restrictions on executive compensation at these firms — has led many such institutions to express their intent to repay Treasury funds as soon as possible. Enforcing the idea that TARP money has become a stigma, banks and financial institutions across the country have publicly said they will not seek government funds.

The fear of nationalization — or at least partial nationalization — of the U.S. banking system was only heightened recently when the Treasury announced it would exchange common stock for the preferred securities of Citigroup obtained by the Treasury through the Capital Purchase Program. Investor and consumer fears linger over the ability of major banks to continue without major government aid.

(Complete the monthly Sounding Board survey and let us know whether you think your money is safe at these banks.)

Write to Diana Golobay at diana.golobay@housingwire.com.

Disclosure: The author held no relevant investment positions when this story was published. Indirect holdings may exist via mutual fund investments. HW reporters and writers follow a strict disclosure policy, the first in the mortgage trade.

Wednesday, March 25th, 2009

The Treasury Department saw yet another candidate drop out of the race to fill top positions. Hedge fund manager Frank Brosens has withdrawn his name from consideration for a leading position to head the Treasury's Troubled Asset Relief Program, sources told the Wall Street Journal. Co-founder of Taconic Capital Advisors, Brosens campaigned for President Barack Obama and is a major donor to the Democratic Party. He told the Post he'd dropped out of consideration for a number of reasons, including not wanting to leave his hedge fund or take up the massive commute between Washington, D.C. and the New York-based school his son attends.

Brosens' withdrawal marked the latest in a string of candidate drop-outs for Treasury positions as public and media scrutiny of candidate backgrounds and tax histories has amplified in the wake of several candidate tax flubs. In light of the hostile reaction to bonuses distributed at bailout recipient American International Group Inc. (AIG: 25.25 +0.44%) and the public heaping of blame — not only on AIG officials but on officials of the government branches put in charge of the failed insurer — it's become a trend for such candidates to drop unexpectedly out of the running.

Secretary Tim Geithner has managed the department with a skeleton crew of top advisers while the search for candidates to fill major roles continues. Neel Kashkari has run the TARP since the switch in administrations, but his duration there is temporary; it's unclear now when Kashkari's time at the Treasury will run out. Obama, reacting to the shortage of Treasury officials in top positions under Geithner, late Monday said he'd decided to nominate Treasury veteran Neal Wolin for a lead position under the secretary. He also said he would nominate Clinton Administration veteran Lael Brainard to head international affairs at the Treasury. Wolin and Brainard face Senate confirmations before the appointments are official, but the third nomination announced — Stuart Levey for under secretary for terrorism and financial intelligence, a role he retains — won't require a second confirmation after the initial Senate confirmation in July 2004.

Write to Diana Golobay at diana.golobay@housingwire.com.

Wednesday, March 25th, 2009

After dropping over 10 percent in January, new single-family home sales rebounded 4.7 percent in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 337,000, according to data released Wednesday by the U.S. Department of Commerce.

The upward movement in February's sales was the first nationwide increase since last July, and well above the 323,000 pace expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. Nonetheless, February's sales were still down 41.1 percent compared to the same time last year.

January's revised pace of 322,000 new homes sold marked the lowest figure on the Commerce Department's books, which date back to 1963, while February's pace posted the second lowest level on record. The Midwest took the brunt of the hit, with sales declining 9.1 percent — reaching their lowest level sine October 1982 — while sales in the Northeast dropped by 3.2 percent. However, sales rose in two of four regions in February. The South experienced the biggest gain, showing an increase of 9.7 percent while sales in the West rose 6.6 percent.

As of February, the months' supply of homes on market fell slightly to 12.2 months from 12.9 months in January — still well above the 9.7 months supply in February of 2008.

While February's sales data marked a favorable sign for the housing market, home prices continued to decline. The median price of a new home tumbled 18 percent in February from a year earlier to $200,900. The most activity in home sales occurred in the $150,000 to $199,999 price range, followed by homes priced between $200,000 and $299,999. Houses over $500,000 accounted for just five percent of home sales in February, indicating the demand for higher-end housing has slipped to near non-existence.

Write to Kelly Curran at kelly.curran@housingwire.com.

Disclosure: The author held no relevant investment positions when this story was published. Indirect holdings may exist via mutual fund investments. HW reporters and writers follow a strict disclosure policy, the first in the mortgage trade.

Wednesday, March 25th, 2009

Raw mortgage application activity for the week ending March 20 rose a seasonally adjusted 32.2 percent from the previous week, according to a survey released Wednesday by the Mortgage Bankers Association. The four-week moving average for the application index increased 13.9 percent, showing a continued seasonal gain.

The index for refinance applications rose a staggering 41.5 percent from the week before, bringing the refi share of total mortgage application activity to 78.5 percent, up from 72.9 percent the previous week. The index measuring application activity for home purchases rose 4.2 percent the same week, suggesting that interest in home purchases still is not keeping pace with the boom in refi popularity.

“Mortgage rates fell sharply to low levels not seen in six decades following the Federal Reserve’s announcement on the Treasury [Department] bond and mortgage-backed securities purchase programs," said Orawin Velz, MBA's associate vice president of economic forecasting. "The drop offered a sizable refinance incentive for most homeowners sparking a pickup in refinance activity."

The Federal Open Market Committee released an official statement on March 18 announcing it would fund an additional $1.15 trillion to credit-unlocking efforts. “To provide greater support to mortgage lending and housing markets, the Committee decided today to increase the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet further by purchasing up to an additional $750 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities, bringing its total purchases of these securities to up to $1.25 trillion this year, and to increase its purchases of agency debt this year by up to $100 billion to a total of up to $200 billion,” Fed officials said in the statement. The FOMC also agreed to purchase up to $300 billion in Treasury securities during the next six months.

It would appear, from the MBA's data, that the announcement effectively pushed mortgage rates a bit lower, sparking borrower interest. The MBA, which also gathers data on mortgage interest rates, reported the lowest 30-year fixed mortgage rate — 4.63 percent — in the survey's almost 20-year history. A popular refinance product, 15-year fixed rate mortgages, also showed a decline in interest rate to 4.48 percent from 4.52 percent the week before.

A separate survey, conducted by Mortgage Maxx LLC, found that household activity in the application market rose slightly — 1.8 percent — for the week ending March 20, while household activity in California alone fell 2.8 percent the same week. Taken with the MBA's findings of spiked raw activity, the Mortgage Application Index — or MAX — suggests that a virtually unchanged number of household submitted significantly more applications than a week before.

While it would seem these prospective borrowers have found a bit more hope that financing is available and have tried to access that financing by submitting more applications, the fact remains that few new prospective borrowers have entered the market this week. It's a fact MAX publisher Paul Descloux is quick to point out in his weekly commentary on the index. "Despite the telegraphed intentions to pull fixed-rate mortgages towards 4.0 percent, debtors remain relatively unexcited to date," he wrote.

Visit www.mbaa.org and www.mortgagemaxx.us for further details.

Write to Diana Golobay at diana.golobay@housingwire.com.

Tuesday, March 24th, 2009

President Barack Obama late Monday announced three nominations for key roles to serve under Treasury Department secretary Tim Geithner. The nominations, according to a White House press release, fill three of the four "most senior" positions under the secretary. “I am grateful for the service of these dedicated and talented individuals and have the highest confidence that, under the leadership of Secretary Geithner, they will serve the American people well as we tackle the challenges ahead of us,” Obama said.

The nominee for deputy secretary — and a Treasury veteran who served as general counsel from 1999 to 2001 — is Neal Wolin, the former president and chief operating officer for property and casualty operations at The Hartford Financial Services Group. Wolin briefly served as deputy counsel on economic policy to Obama before being asked to return to the Treasury, White House officials said. A graduate twice of Yale (Yale College and later Yale Law School) and once of the University of Oxford, Wolin brings a strong background of law and economics to the role.

Then, for the role of under secretary of the Treasury for international affairs, Obama said he plans to nominate Lael Brainard. Currently serving as vice president and founding director of the global economy and development program at the Brookings Institute, Brainard is a veteran of the Clinton Administration, where she worked as deputy national economic adviser and deputy assistant for international economics. A graduate twice from Harvard University (masters and doctoral degrees in Economics) and once from Wesleyan University, Brainard brings a rich history of international relations to the position. She has served as the U.S. sherpa to the G8, worked on micro finance in West Africa and received a Council on Foreign Relations International Affairs Fellowship.

Wolin and Brainard both face Senate confirmations.

Obama also nominated, as under secretary for terrorism and financial intelligence, Stuart Levey, who retains the position. Confirmed by the Senate in July 2004, Levey will continue to head the office that marshals the Treasury's efforts to cease financial support abroad to international terrorists, narcotics traffickers and other sources of national threat. A graduate twice from Harvard (Harvard College in 1986 and Harvard Law School in 1989), Levey previously served as principal associate deputy attorney general at the U.S. Department of Justice.

Geithner has been taking the heat lately for the lack of hires in these top positions. After the fourth potential Treasury nominee dropped from the running earlier this month, sources told the Washington Post that under-staffing issues might hamper the Treasury's ability to handle the financial crisis.

Write to Diana Golobay at diana.golobay@housingwire.com.

Tuesday, March 24th, 2009

Home prices have declined by at least 10 percent on a year-over-year basis for 11 consecutive months and February preview data indicates the trend will continue, according to a report released Monday by First American CoreLogic.

National resale housing prices fell 11.6 percent in January from a year ago. The number of metropolitan markets experiencing price declines was, by far, the highest level tracked by American CoreLogic's LoanPerformance Home Price Index, the company said.

As of January 2009, more than 700, or nearly three-quarters, of all metropolitan markets were experiencing home price depreciation, up significantly from 254 markets experiencing depreciation in December 2007 and 394 in June 2008.

“Home prices nationally continue to fall, and are no longer confined to just the ‘sand’ states," said Mark Fleming, chief economist for First American CoreLogic.

The composition of the top five markets began to shift in January. Nevada, where home prices fell 26.9 percent, became the top ranked state for price depreciation, displacing California which had led the nation in price depreciation since May 2007. Arizona held steady at number three, experiencing a 21.3 percent drop in home prices, while Rhode Island — with a 19.7 percent decrease in prices — edged out Florida, and now ranks fourth in the nation in terms of price declines.

"Nearly three quarters of all CBSAs (core based statistical areas) are now experiencing declines, almost three times more than a year ago," Fleming said. "The economic downturn and high levels of distressed housing inventory means that the likelihood of a price recovery will not begin until 2010."

Among the country's 35 largest metropolitan markets, First American CoreLogic's data shows 10 of those markets are experiencing depreciation of more than 20 percent. The Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario area in California was hit hardest in January, posting a 29.62 percent year-over-year drop in home prices. Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, Fla. experienced a 28.79 percent drop, followed closely by the Las Vegas-Paradise, Oakland-Fremont-Hayward and Cape Coral-Fort Myers areas.

Texas fared well according to January's data, as the top three CBSAs — Austin-Round Rock, Houston-Sugar Land, Dallas-Plano-Irving — were all in Texas. Overall, however, West Virginia is boding the best. It reported a 9.15 percent year-over-year increase in home price appreciation as of January.

Write to Kelly Curran at kelly.curran@housingwire.com.

Disclosure: The author held no relevant investment positions when this story was published. Indirect holdings may exist via mutual fund investments. HW reporters and writers follow a strict disclosure policy, the first in the mortgage trade.

Tuesday, March 24th, 2009

On the heels of the Treasury's latest plan to work with private investors to purchase private-party RMBS, Fitch Ratings said Monday afternoon that it had revised its projected cumulative loss estimates for 2005-2007 vintage U.S. prime RMBS transactions — in other words, more downgrades are coming. It's probably more accurate to say that Fitch amplified its loss estimates, moving cumulative loss estimates for 2007 vintage prime RMBS approximately five times higher than previously estimated.

"Delinquencies have increased dramatically in prime RMBS transactions as borrowers grapple with the ongoing pressures of declining home values, rising unemployment and lack of refinancing alternatives," said to group managing director and U.S. RMBS group head Huxley Somerville. "From a ratings perspective, the combination of declining credit enhancement and higher expected losses will result in increased ratings pressure for recent vintage prime RMBS."

As part of an ongoing monitoring of RMBS transactions, Fitch has been conducting rating reviews of prime pools over the last several weeks. The extent and rate of the portfolio deterioration associated with many of these transactions has resulted in downgrades for a significant number of subordinate and mezzanine bonds, the rating agency said. Additionally, for the 2005-2007 vintages, the deterioration in the relationship between credit protection and the revised expected loss will cause a sizable portion of the senior classes to be downgraded and/or placed on Rating Watch Negative, as well, Fitch warned.

Why defaults are surging among prime borrowers has less to do with the mortgage instrument, as was the case early in the mortgage crisis, than with more traditional risk factors tied to declining property values and rising unemployment. For example, Fitch said it found that loans with multiple risk attributes such as limited income documentation and second-liens, are defaulting at rates approximately three times that of loans without those characteristics.

Negative equity, too, is a still-emerging problem: borrowers with negative equity in some recent vintage mortgage pools are approaching 50 percent, the rating agency said. Borrowers with no remaining equity are defaulting at a rate three times greater than their equity-holding counterparts.

Write to Paul Jackson at paul.jackson@housingwire.com.

Tuesday, March 24th, 2009

Home prices across the U.S. rose a seasonally-adjusted 1.7 percent  from December 2008 to January 2009, according to a monthly index released Tuesday by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). The January index marked the first gain overall for the U.S. since February 2008's index, which had risen slightly over January 2008's level.

The index compares with the November-to-December data, which showed a 0.2 percent decline (revised from the previously reported 0.1 percent increase). The slight monthly gain was erased by the 6.3 percent overall decline for the 12 months ending January 2009. The U.S. index is steeply below — 9.6 percent — its April 2007 peak value, FHFA said.

The index showed that monthly price changes varied sharply across different regions. The East North Central census division (covering Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio) experienced the strongest growth in home prices, which were up 3.9 percent from December. The South Atlantic (from Delaware, Maryland and the Virginias to the Carolinas, Georgia and Florida) followed closely with its 3.6 percent increase. The Pacific division (covering Hawaii, Alaska, Washington, Oregon and California) was the only area to post a decline in home prices for January's data, 0.9 percent below the December level. West South Central (from Oklahoma and Texas to Arkansas and Louisiana) remained flat, with a zero percent change from December.

The index is calculated from purchase prices of homes with Fannie Mae (FNM: 0.00 N/A) or Freddie Mac (FRM: 7.55 -2.33%) mortgages and is subject to month-to-month changes in the geographic volume of sales, FHFA said. The agency also said the volume of sales in January were relatively low, and future revisions of the month's data could result in "significant" changes. "The January home sales reflected in the FHFA data disproportionately occurred in areas with the strongest markets," FHFA officials said in a media statement. "While it is difficult to perfectly control for changing geographic mix in estimating house price indexes, the data suggest that if one were to remove those effects, the change in home prices in January, while still positive, would have been far less dramatic."

Write to Diana Golobay at diana.golobay@housingwire.com.

Disclosure: The author held no relevant investment positions when this story was published. Indirect holdings may exist via mutual fund investments. HW reporters and writers follow a strict disclosure policy, the first in the mortgage trade.

Tuesday, March 24th, 2009

As euphoria over cheap government-sponsored leverage wears off, some investors are beginning to parse through the Treasury's public-private investment plan, and what they're finding has been an all-too-common refrain as of late: more questions than answers. While Treasury secretary Timothy Geithner's toxic asset plan, unveiled Monday morning, provides investors with more detail than previously, it leaves key questions unanswered — particularly on the whole loan side, investors say.

"Who services the loans?" asked one investor, who asked to remain anonymous. His firm specializes in whole loan purchases, and he said his firm is uneasy with the terms spelled out by the Treasury's initial fact sheet. That fact sheet says only that "servicing will be provided by the participant bank, unless otherwise defined," while suggesting that the investment fund "retains control of servicing." Read the full legacy loan fact sheet.

"If I retain responsibility for servicing, I need to control servicing, meaning the loans I purchase come into my shop," said the investor, whose fund maintains its own in-house servicing platform. "If servicing stays with the mega-banks likely to be selling this stuff, I'll have to price accordingly for a lack of control." Whole loan investors say that the return on their investment into distressed residential real estate loans is wholly dependent on the servicing function–and the fact sheet's suggestion that servicing would stay with whatever bank sells the loans via auction has investors concerned.

"Does this mean I need to junk my servicing platform to participate?" asked another investor, whose fund specializes in acquiring sub- and non-performing mortgages. "My return is dependent on a quick assessment of who can be worked with and who can't. None of this bulk loan modification [stuff] you've been reading about–we either get the borrower on the line and work aggressively to cut principal, or we move as fast as possible into foreclosure."

Beyond servicing on whole loans, a reference to "passive" investors in a frequently-asked-questions document has investors worried as well. The document says that executive compensation restrictions will not apply to "passive private investors" in the whole loan purchase program. "The whole loan business isn't about passive investment," said one investor. "Does that mean we're liable for executive compensation restrictions if we try to control servicing?"

Securities investors expressed some disappointment at the Treasury plan's apparent limitation to only certain RMBS, CMBS, and ABS securities; the Treasury said its 'legacy securities' plan will apply to RMBS formerly rated AAA, and CMBS/ABS currently rated AAA. "I dont think you need a lot of leverage to sell AAA rated paper," said one investor. "Maybe you can get a few basis points more with the leverage, but the problem is still to be addressed."

Investors, banks and other financial institutions have only recently begun seeing some downgrades to AAA-rated residential mortgage credits; the vast majority of downgrades and resulting credit hits have been to other tranches in private-party issuances — and the Treasury plan does not include these securities, ostensibly to protect the U.S. taxpayer. But some investors say that such an exclusion leaves plenty of toxic securities on the balance sheets of banks, and doesn't explicitly address collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs.

Treasury officials are managing a series of private calls with key investment groups this week and next, investors told HousingWire, in an effort to better grasp investor concerns around the plan.

Write to Paul Jackson at paul.jackson@housingwire.com.



Origination/Lending
Kenneth Bacon, executive vice president of the Fannie Mae multifamily mortgage business, is retiring after 18 years at the mortgage...

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Servicing/Default
The serious delinquency rate for Federal Housing Administration mortgages reached 9.6% in December, the highest level in more than two...

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