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Archive for January, 2009

Thursday, January 22nd, 2009

After inching downward for 11 straight weeks, Mortgage rates have taken the turn, according to Freddie Mac's (FRE: 0.00 N/A) Primary Mortgage Market Survey released Thursday. 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 5.12 percent with an average 0.7 point this week, significantly up from last week's 4.96 percent average, yet still below the year-ago average of 5.48 percent.

“Fixed-rate mortgages followed bond yields and edged up this holiday week,” said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist.  "However, over the first three weeks of 2009, 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 0.25 percentage points below its monthly average for December 2007.  As a result, the number of mortgage applications for refinancing was roughly about 86 percent of all conventional loans over the same time period."

It's worth noting if a lender's workload — in this case, possibly caused by the surge in refis — exceeds their capacity to process loan applications, often times they will raise rates to slow the volume of applications.

Regardless the reason, the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage average also climbed this week, reaching 4.80 percent, compared to 4.65 percent last week. One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs were no exception, rising to 4.92 percent from last week's 4.89 percent average.

Five-year Treasury-indexed ARMs, on the other hand, continued to ease, averaging 5.24 percent compared to last week's 5.25 percent.

Bankrate.com's weekly mortgage rate survey also reported a rise in mortgage rates, citing inflation fears as the driving force. The survey's results showed that the 30-year fixed-rate benchmark rose 31 basis points to 5.59 percent.

"I think it's the Obama spending fear," Michael Moskowitz, president of Equity Now, told Bankrate of the rate increase. When bond investors foresee inflation, the result is higher bond yields, explained Bankrate's Holden Lewis, which obviously results in higher mortgage rates.

Write to Kelly Curran at kelly.curran@housingwire.com.

Disclosure: The author held no relevant investment positions when this story was published. Indirect holdings may exist via mutual fund investments. HW reporters and writers follow a strict disclosure policy, the first in the mortgage trade.

Thursday, January 22nd, 2009

Old Republic International Corp. (ORI: 9.72 +1.67%), which provides residential mortgage insurance as well as title insurance and other real estate transfer-related services, on Thursday reported a quarterly net loss of $126.5 million, or 54 cents per share. "Substantially all the reduced performance stemmed from continued weakness in the company's mortgage guaranty and title insurance lines," Old Republic officials said in the earnings report. "Given the continuing downtrend in U.S. economic activity and the substantial dislocations that have enveloped all organizations with housing and mortgage-lending exposures, it is likely that these factors will exert additional earnings pressures throughout 2009 and, at the least, a part of 2010."

The $171.1 million revenue generated by Old Republic's mortgage guaranty business was offset by $178.3 million in losses, while the $160.1 million in revenue realized by its title insurance business faced $19.3 million in losses for the quarter. Old Republic reported a claims ratio of 220.5 percent for its mortgage guaranty business through the fourth quarter, reflecting a "combination of unfavorable loan default trends, greater claim severity caused by the larger insured loan values of recent years, and lessened opportunities to mitigate reported claims."

Read the earnings report.

Old Republic's fourth-quarter figures reflect an increasingly costly and difficult market for all mortgage insurers. Standard & Poor's Ratings Services in April 2008 downgraded a handful of key insurers, including MGIC Investment Corp. (MTG: 4.14 +6.98%), PMI Group Inc. (PMI: 0.00 N/A), Radian Group Inc. (RDN: 2.66 +2.70%) and Old Republic — whose insurance unit was slashed to AA- from AA — as the industry came to terms with a housing market slump worse than many had anticipated at that point.

MGIC's mortgage insurance business — which was downgraded at the same time to BBB from A — reported Monday a net quarterly loss of $273 million — or $2.21 per share — compared to the $1.47 billion net loss in the year-ago quarter. Total fourth-quarter revenues totaled $411.5 million due to increased net premiums, and were negatively affected by fourth-quarter losses of $903.4 million “reflecting the continued increase in the number of delinquent loans,” according to the company’s report.

Write to Diana Golobay at diana.golobay@housingwire.com.

Disclosure: The author held no relevant investment positions when this story was published. Indirect holdings may exist via mutual fund investments. HW reporters and writers follow a strict disclosure policy, the first in the mortgage trade.

Thursday, January 22nd, 2009

Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB: 13.23 +1.15%) reported Thursday a net loss of $2.2 billion — or $3.94 per share — for all of 2008. These losses reflected a quarterly loss of $2.2 billion — or $3.82 per share — for the fourth quarter, a leap from the $81 million loss reported for the third quarter. These losses were "driven primarily by goodwill impairment, credit actions, higher credit costs and market valuation adjustments," according to the earnings statement published by the bank.

The more than $3.4 billion invested Dec. 31 in Fifth Third by the Treasury Department through the capital purchase program vehicle within the Troubled Asset Relief program helped the bank to increase its tangible equity ratio to 7.86 percent, raise its tier 1 capital ratio to 10.59 percent, and boost its total capital ratio to 14.79 percent, according to the statement. The investment was offset, however, by a significant increase in Fifth Third's loan loss reserve to a total $2.8 billion, resulting in an allowance-to-loan-and-lease ratio of 3.3 percent, up from the 2.4 percent reported in the third quarter. The reserve also made for an allowance-to-nonperforming-loan ratio of 123 percent, up from the 79 percent achieved in the third quarter, the bank reported.

"Economic conditions have deteriorated across our footprint and have placed both our consumer and commercial loan portfolios under significant stress, as evident in our bottom line results for the year," said chairman, president and CEO Kevin Kabat. "The resultant decline in our stock price during the quarter, and the evaluation of goodwill, led to our recording of goodwill impairment of $940 million after-tax during the quarter." He went on to remind investors that the goodwill impairment is a non-cash charge and doesn't affect the bank's capital ratios.

Fifth Third reported an "aggressive" approach to counter problematic consumer loans — modification on a massive scale. The bank reported that, of the total $547 million in "restructured" loans occupying the books for all of 2008, fourth-quarter modifications accounted for $218 million in loans. "Modifying these loans is beneficial not only to our shareholders but is also consistent with the needs of our customers, and result in a greater likelihood of payment and more value ultimately received by Fifth Third," officials said in the earnings statement. "We understand that these actions significantly impacted our bottom line results, but we believe the actions taken in 2008 to mitigates risks and fortify the balance sheet will benefit our shareholders and customers in 2009 as this credit cycle progresses."

A look into Fifth Third's mortgage business
Fifth Third reported $9.3 billion average residential mortgage loan portfolio for the quarter, a continued slight easing off on the business through all of 2008. The first-quarter 2008 mortgage portfolio totaled nearly $10.4 billion — a figure that has declined every quarter since. Non-performing assets accounted for $259 million of the residential mortgage portfolio. The decreased mortgage business also showed in Fifth Third's mortgage banking business net revenue, which swung into at a $29 million loss for the quarter. Mortgage loan charge-offs eased slightly from the previous quarter from $77 million to $68 million, while home equity charge-offs also dropped slightly to $54 million, possibly reflecting the decline in overall mortgage business. Losses in Michigan and Florida represented 80 percent of losses related to these charge-offs, according to the report.

Read the report.

Write to Diana Golobay at diana.golobay@housingwire.com.

Disclosure: The author held no relevant investment positions when this story was published. Indirect holdings may exist via mutual fund investments. HW reporters and writers follow a strict disclosure policy, the first in the mortgage trade.

Thursday, January 22nd, 2009

The construction of new homes continued its downward trend in December, falling more than 15 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 550,000 — 45 percent below last December's rate — setting yet another record low, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.

"The financial market shockwave felt in the fall has clearly brought the housing industry to its knees," wrote Stephen Stanley, chief economist for RBS Greenwich Capital, according to Market Watch. "Builders have essentially closed up shop for a while until the storm blows over."

398,000 single-family homes were started in December, a 13.5 percent drop from November, while 145,000 housing structures with five-plus units were started.

Permits, which some economists suggest is a less volatile measure of new construction, as they are less affected by weather conditions,  fell 10.7 percent in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 549,000, which is a whopping 50.6 percent plunge from the same time last year.

In all of 2008, an estimated 904,300 housing units were started. This is 33.3 percent below the 2007 figure of 1,355,000, and far less than the 2006 figure which reported 1.8 million home starts. Market Watch cited data that showed construction levels in 2008 haven't been lower since World War II.

As builder's continue their quest to reduce excess inventory, the on-going trials weigh heavily on their "moods" according to The National Association of Home Builders sentiment index, which fell to a record-low 8 in January. The index showed that only one in every 12 builders believes the market is in good condition.

Write to Kelly Curran at kelly.curran@housingwire.com.

Wednesday, January 21st, 2009

Home builder confidence across the U.S. slumped to a new record low of 8, according to a monthly survey released Wednesday by the National Association of Home Builders. The housing market index, measuring builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months, is based on a scale of 100 where any number over 50 indicates more home builders perceive sales conditions as good than poor. An all-time low of 8 — a downward slip of a single point from December's survey — indicates sales conditions are worse than they have been in more than 20 years, since the NAHB began the survey.

“Clearly, conditions in the nation’s housing market aren’t getting any better, and they aren’t going to get any better until the federal government takes substantial action to encourage qualified buyers to get back in the market,” said NAHB chairman Sandy Dunn, a W. Va.-based home builder. “The Obama Administration and the new Congress have a tremendous opportunity and responsibility to enact legislation that can spur home buyer demand and jump-start the national economy.”

NAHB said in a press release regarding the survey that it is advocating a home buyer tax credit incentive and a government buy-down of mortgage rates for home purchases in 2009. It said it hopes such moves "would rejuvenate demand for homes and trigger significant consumer spending across the board."

In the first hours of President Barack Obama's administration, he is already faced with an influx of proposed housing bills. H.R. 600, a bill sponsored by Al Green, D-Texas that aims to “revise the requirements for seller-financed downpayments for mortgages for single-family housing insured by the secretary of Housing and Urban Development,” was referred on Jan. 16 to the House Committee on Financial Services. The bill boasts two long-time compatriots in the case for seller-funded DPA, Maxine Waters, D-Calif. and Gary Miller, R-Calif., as co-sponsors.

Miller is making headlines elsewhere with two other bills he has sponsored and were referred Friday to the House Committee on Financial Services. H.R. 607, which aims “to direct the Securities and Exchange Commission to issue guidance on the interpretation of fair value accounting,” and H.R. 587, which aims “to increase the loan limits for the FHA single-family housing mortgage insurance programs…and for the conforming loan limits for Fannie Mae (FNM: 0.00 N/A) and Freddie Mac (FRE: 0.00 N/A) during 2009,” are both awaiting further review by the committee.

Write to Diana Golobay at diana.golobay@housingwire.com.

Disclosure: The author held no relevant investment positions when this story was published. Indirect holdings may exist via mutual fund investments. HW reporters and writers follow a strict disclosure policy, the first in the mortgage trade.

Wednesday, January 21st, 2009

Friedman, Billings, Ramsey analyst Paul Miller made waves Tuesday by suggesting that Bank of America Corp. (BAC: 7.29 -0.14%) needs more than $80 billion in new common equity capital, thanks to a ballooning balance sheet of assets tied to its acquisitions of Countrywide Financial and Merrill Lynch. Miller suggested that BofA would also need to cut its dividend to preserve capital, and moved his target price to $5/share.

Shares of Bank of America slumped 29 percent, closing at $5.10 on Tuesday; shares were at $5.82, up more than 14 percent, when this story was published. Nonetheless, Tuesday's close was the lowest share price for the North Carolina-based bank since 1990. Other major commercial banks swooned, as well, including Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC: 29.60 +1.89%).

BofA reported a fourth-quarter net loss of $1.79 billion, or 48 cents a share, on Friday morning last week; the bank begins the year with $61.7 billion of tangible common equity, supporting $2.4 trillion of tangible assets, Miller's note said according to a MarketWatch report. That's well below the 6 to 9 percent ratio that Miller believes is needed.

"It would take over $80 billion of new common equity to reach even the low end of the range, and we believe Bank of America simply is not generating sufficient capital internally in this environment to put a dent in this size capital hole," his note read in part.

BofA’s mortgage, home equity and insurance services segment itself reported a net loss of $2.5 billion during Q4, as home equity credit costs continued to soar.

Write to Paul Jackson at paul.jackson@housingwire.com.

Disclosure: The author held no relevant investment positions when this story was published. Indirect holdings may exist via mutual fund investments. HW reporters and writers follow a strict disclosure policy, the first in the mortgage trade.

Wednesday, January 21st, 2009

President Obama's Treasury Secretary-designate Tim Geithner called for aggressive action in tackling the economic downturn during his testimony before the Senate Finance Committee at his confirmation hearing Wednesday morning.

"Senators, the ultimate costs of this crisis will be greater, if we don not act with sufficient strength now," Geithner's testimony read. "In a crisis of this magnitude, the most prudent course is the most forceful course."

Geithner, currently president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, called for the support of Obama's proposed stimulus plan — which he said the President is expected to present in the next few weeks. "[W]e must act quickly to provide substantial support for economic recovery and to get credit flowing again," Geithner said.

In his testimony, the Treasury Secretary-designate vowed to restructure the $700 billion rescue plan enacted by Congress in October, saying a revised TARP plan must contain "tough conditions to protect the taxpayer and transparency to allow the American people to see how and where their money is being spent and the results those investments are delivering."

Geithner said he would get to work on an exit plan, a way to wind down as soon as possible the government's now-tireless efforts to prop up financial markets. He also promised to develop a fiscal plan that offers long-term stability.

Geithner didn't offer too many details as to how he would accomplish the plans he outlined, suggesting that jumping-the-gun — a tendency of many legislators in the recent past — wasn't the way to go.

In considering whether to confirm Geithner as the nation's top financial officer, the Senate panel will question Geithner about his plans to rebuild financial markets. But the panel is also expected to smooth over concerns that surfaced last week — which ultimately delayed Geithner's hearing.

His original confirmation hearing, set for last week, hit a roadblock after reports found he failed to pay more than $34,000 in taxes for social security and medicare during his time as a senior official at the International Monetary Fund from 2001-2003, including a small payment in 2004 after he left.

"These were careless mistakes. They were avoidable mistakes," Geithner said Wednesday. "But they were unintentional…I take full responsibility for them. I have gone back and corrected these errors and paid what I owed…I want to apologize…"

Considering Geithner would oversee the IRS, many have questioned the mistake. Ranking member of the Finance Committee, Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), said he was weighing the risks tied to the problems in the economy against what he called the "troubling fact" that Geithner didn't pay a portion of his back taxes in a timely fashion, according to a CNNMoney.com report.

Committee chairman Max Baucus (D-Mont), however, said in his opening statement that he's confident Geithner is up to the "formidable challenges" the economy faces.

"I'm interested in hearing his explanation for the tax stuff, but that's minor next to the other issues," New York University finance professor Roy Smith told CNNMoney. "What I want to know is what he's learned from the first half of the TARP."

Write to Kelly Curran at kelly.curran@housingwire.com

Disclosure: The authors held no relevant investment positions when this story was published. Indirect holdings may exist via mutual fund investments. HW reporters and writers follow a strict disclosure policy, the first in the mortgage trade.

Wednesday, January 21st, 2009

Suggesting that capital markets turmoil is now affecting multifamily apartment owners and developers, the National Association of Home Builders suggested Wednesday morning that apartment developers are finding it difficult to fund future projects, especially those financed with Low Income Housing Tax Credits (LIHTC).

"Despite a demand for our product that far exceeds the supply, affordable apartment developers are finding it nearly impossible to assemble the necessary capital to move forward with their projects," said Robert Greer, president of Marlton, NJ-based Michaels Development Co, whose company has built more than 40,000 LIHTC units over the past 30 years. "Putting together deals that make sense is more difficult now than it has ever been — primarily because the program's biggest investors of the past — Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, and large banks — have been sidelined."

Bernard Markstein, NAHB's staff vice president of forecasting and analysis, said that if frozen credit markets don't start to thaw, or the job losses continue to accelerate, NAHB could ratchet down its forecast for multifamily housing starts even further. "Right now, we are forecasting 188,000 multifamily starts in 2009," he said, down more than 100,000 units from 2008.

The changes in multifamily financing appear to be recent. According to analysis by the Mortgage Bankers Association of the Federal Reserve Board Flow of Funds data, the level of commercial/multifamily mortgage debt outstanding decreased only slightly by 0.1 percent in the third quarter of 2008, to $3.44 trillion; multifamily mortgage debt outstanding rose $15 billion, or 1.7 percent.

Nonetheless, the NAHB contends that emergent tight financing conditions are having a profound impact on market-rate rental communities, which are already under pressure from the excessive inventory of unsold single family homes and condos on the market, as well as dramatic job losses.

In spite of the current housing glut, this is a worrisome trend for the multifamily sector, Markstein said, because starts have hovered between 250,000 and 350,000 for more than a decade. "The stability in the starts over such an extended time indicates that it is a sustainable level of development," he argued. "You can argue that the product mix between condos and rentals got skewed during the housing boom, but you can't say that there was overbuilding in the multifamily sector."

"Multifamily projects take longer to design and build than single-family homes, so it's important to have a development pipeline," noted multifamily builder Steve Lawson, president of Virginia Beach-based The Lawson Companies. "In the next few years, the huge Generation Y age cohort — people now in their early 20s — will begin entering the housing market, and they won't be able to find apartments."

Interesting food for thought as we think about how the current crisis might shape housing trends over the next decade.

Write to Paul Jackson at paul.jackson@housingwire.com.

Wednesday, January 21st, 2009

If December's data is any indication, investors purchasing distressed properties in the inland areas within California now make up the lion's share of Southern California's real estate market, while new home sales elsewhere continued to tank and the jumbo home loan market remained in the deep freeze.

A total of 19,926 new and resale homes sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties last month, according to MDA DataQuick, a real estate information service. That was up 19.2 percent from 16,720 for November, and up 50.5 percent from 13,240 for December 2007.

Driving that jump? Foreclosures. Regionally, foreclosure resales accounted for 55.7 percent of December's resales activity, DataQuick said, up from 54.7 percent in November, and up from 24.3 percent in December 2007.

The number of resale houses sold in Riverside County almost tripled on a year-over-year basis, as a result, from 1,238 in December 2007 to 3,617 last month. Just under 70 percent of Riverside County resales were foreclosure homes. The trend is similar in San Bernardino County, as well; in contrast, home sales in Southland metro and coastal prestige markets are down from a year ago.

Also hurting are newly-built homes, which are selling at some of the lowest totals ever recorded in the state. A total of 1,813 newly-built homes were sold in December, easily the lowest number for that month in DataQuick's statistics. The December average since 1988 is 4,926; and by way of contrast, in December 2005 a total of 8,723 new homes were sold.

"The builders are in a holding pattern, staying alive until the market recovers. Mortgage interest rates last month were near record lows. Of course, that doesn't mean much if the money isn't actually being lent. It does look like the spigot is being opened a little bit, at least for low-cost home purchases," said John Walsh, MDA DataQuick president.

The most active lenders to Southland home buyers right now are Countrywide, Bank of America and Wells Fargo. MDA DataQuick will report more extensively on the home financing market next month, Walsh said.

The median price paid for a Southland home was $278,000 last month. That was down 2.5 percent from $285,000 for November, and down 34.6 percent from $425,000 for December a year ago. The median reached $505,000 in mid 2007.

But keep in mind that with so many of the resales taking place inland in lower-cost and hard-hit foreclosure markets, average prices are likely skewed towards that particular market. (Trust me, if I could find a nice 5-bedroom single-family detached in Huntington Beach, Calif. for $278,000, I'd be moving. Now.)

Write to Paul Jackson at paul.jackson@housingwire.com.

Wednesday, January 21st, 2009

Citigroup Inc. (C: 30.87 +1.61%) CEO Vikram Pandit, along with chairman Winfried Bischoff and CFO Gary Crittenden, declined retention and incentive awards, according to a recent filing through the Securities and Exchange Commission. The announcement came in concert with recent statements that Pandit and Bischoff — along with Robert Rubin, who ended up resigning in early January, anyway — would take no bonuses for 2008. Citi's other executive committee members received stock awards set to vest under the condition that the price of Citi's common stock shares meet specified targets during the next four years. Half of the awards bear a price target of $17.85 and the other half targets $10.61. These awards were granted "for the benefit of eligible Citi employees…with incentive compensation in excess of $100,000," according to the SEC filing.

Citi is the recipient of $45 billion through the Treasury Department's Troubled Asset Relief Program (the only other institution to receive that much is Bank of America Corp. (BAC: 7.29 -0.14%)), with $25 billion initially injected Oct. 28 as a transaction within the Capital Purchase Program (CPP). The second injection of $20 billion came around with the creation of another TARP vehicle, the Targeted Investment Program, which so far has only made two injections — Citi's additional $20 billion and the $20 billion supplement to CPP funds given Jan. 16 to BofA. Although it's been repeatedly argued by outgoing Treasury secretary Henry Paulson that only healthy banks were given capital injections, the question remains — after almost three months of capital injections in these banks and consensus from both BofA and Citi officials that 2009 offers a bleak outlook — whether they will stay afloat on their own or require even more funding going forward.

Citi's rocky start in 2009
A source within Citi confirmed to HousingWire in early January that the bank was not considering the sale of its Smith Barney brokerage unit days before the announcement in mid-January that Citi had entered an agreement with Morgan Stanley (MS: 18.56 +2.26%) to launch a joint venture of Citi's brokerage business and Morgan's wealth management business. Then, days later, Citi posted an $8.29 billion fourth-quarter loss — bringing the total net 2008 loss to $18.7 billion — and subsequently reported it would reorganize itself into two businesses, essentially undoing the '98 merger between Citicorp and Travelers Group.

If Citi isn't teetering on the edge of collapse, it certainly seems to be buckling down amid steep losses. The fact that Pandit and leading executives have decided to forgo bonuses and other incentives suggests some kind of acknowledgement that the capital just isn't there anymore. It's been argued by critics that the late-'90s merger, Citigroup had simply become too large to manage. Even with The Travelers Companies Inc. (TRV: 38.72 +0.94%) having spun off of the massive company in 2002, taking the insurance underwriting business with it, a giant banking entity still stood in the wake. Considering the massive fourth-quarter losses and restructuring plans reported recently, critics' fears of an unmanageable giant corporation don’t seem entirely unfounded.

Write to Diana Golobay at diana.golobay@housingwire.com.

Disclosure: The author held no relevant investment positions when this story was published. Indirect holdings may exist via mutual fund investments. HW reporters and writers follow a strict disclosure policy, the first in the mortgage trade.



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