Archive for January, 2009
An "intense recession" is likely through the spring, The Conference Board, a non-profit organization which makes economic-based forecasts and assesses trends, said Monday, citing its index of leading economic indicators. The index is designed to forecast economic activity six to nine months ahead. In November, the index fell 0.4 percent.
In December, leading economic indicators (LEI) actually rose 0.3 percent, mainly due to the continued injections of cash into the money supply by the Federal Reserve. The yield spread also contributed positively to the index, helping to offset unemployment claims and the ongoing decline in building permits.
But December's LEI was still 5 percent lower than its most recent peak in July 2007, and it would have been much weaker without the massive expansion in inflation-adjusted money supply in the last four months, the Board said. The Board's Coincident Economic index has also been deteriorating, and the decrease in this index over the past six months is the largest since 1980. "Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite economic indexes suggests that the recession that began in December 2007 will continue in the near term," the report said.
"Expect declines in output and employment over the next several quarters, with unemployment possibly rising to 9 percent," said Ken Goldstein, economist at the Conference Board.
As for the money supply, it has been on the rise for months as the Federal Reserve has taken "extraordinary" measures in at attempt to unfreeze the credit markets, Goldstein said. "Clearly they are printing money as fast as they can," he said. "The fear is that printing so much money will lead to inflation," but he noted there are other things to worry about as well.
It's Your Turn
Here at HousingWire, we thought it’s about time we turn the mic over to our readers to see what industry players and participants are predicting about the direction the year will go, as economists and analysts have had their fair share of input.
Put on your sorcerer’s hats and get out those crystal globes for a moment to look into the future and predict what the “theme” will be for 2009. This time next year, what will be the thing that we look back on as having defined 2009 and why? Will it be “refinance frenzy,” “Buy! Buy! Buy!” or “Bye, bye, 401-K”?
We’ll pick the best entries to appear in the March issue of HousingWire. Click here to complete the survey and be included in the next print issue. Be as detailed as you’d like, but be sure to include your name, city and e-mail address for inclusion.
Write to Kelly Curran at kelly.curran@housingwire.com.
Disclosure: The author held no relevant investment positions when this story was published. Indirect holdings may exist via mutual fund investments. HW reporters and writers follow a strict disclosure policy, the first in the mortgage trade.
President Barack Obama's administration was promising over the weekend quick actions geared to tighten regulations on the U.S. financial system. Changes in the works might include strict federal regulations on hedge funds, credit rating facilities and mortgage brokers. Presidential aides said they planned to propose federal standards for mortgage brokers that issued inappropriate mortgage products and are regulated by state officials, according to a New York Times report Saturday.
The Times reported the aides are also considering proposals to increase the Securities and Exchange Commission's supervision of underwriting standards of mortgage-backed securities. It was reported by White House aids that regulators may seek greater supervision in the trading of derivatives such as credit default swaps through a central "clearinghouse." Such proposals are geared to address regulatory shortcomings that led, in part, to the financial crisis, according to the officials.
The move toward heavier regulation — along with rumors circulating around possible bank stimulus funds beyond the Treasury Department's TARP and Obama's forthcoming $800 billion-plus economic stimulus package — seem to set the stage for another discussion taking place within the administration: the notion of a nationalized banking system.
House speaker Nancy Pelosi on Sunday hinted about nationalization of the largest banks, although she denied any possible "total ownership" strategy, the Times reported Sunday. "Well, whatever you want to call it," Pelosi said, according to the Times. “If we are strengthening [the banks], then the American people should get some of the upside of that strengthening. Some people call that nationalization."
A group of the largest U.S. banks – Bank of America Corp. (BAC: 7.29 -0.14%) (with Merrill Lynch & Co.), Citigroup Inc. (C: 30.87 +1.61%), JP Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM: 37.21 -0.75%), Morgan Stanley (MS: 18.56 +2.26%) and Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC: 29.60 +1.89%) — together have received some $150 billion through the TARP's capital purchase and targeted investment programs. Counting in the $40 billion bailout of "systemically significant failing" American International Group Inc. (AIG: 25.25 +0.44%), just six publicly-traded financial institutions have gobbled up $190 billion of the Treasury's TARP spending power in just three months since the program's inception. With such a significant share in the banks' stocks already, the government seems poised to exercise at least some degree of nationalization.
Write to Diana Golobay at diana.golobay@housingwire.com.
Disclosure: The author held no relevant investment positions when this story was published. Indirect holdings may exist via mutual fund investments. HW reporters and writers follow a strict disclosure policy, the first in the mortgage trade.
In the largest decline in over 30 years, National home prices dropped 10.6 percent in 2008, according to First American CoreLogic's LoanPerformance Home Price Index released Monday. Since U.S. home prices reached their peak in 2006, prices have declined a cumulative 18.5 percent.
The bursting housing bubble hasn't showed signs of a slowdown just yet, as full year 2008 prices fell in 35 of the nation's 50 states. California was of course the front-runner, with a 26.9 percent decline in home prices, followed by Nevada with a 22.8 percent decline, Arizona with a 19 percent decline and Florida posting a decline of 18.2 percent. Since the crest of home prices in July 2006, California has seen a 42 percent cumulative plunge, while Nevada has experienced a 39 percent drop in home prices.
"Collateral risk continues to depress the housing market with the top four states for price depreciation accounting for nearly half of all outstanding foreclosures," said Mark Fleming, chief economist for First American CoreLogic. The company also reported Monday that the number of unique foreclosure filings in 2008 surged 76 percent to 3.4 million, compared to 1.9 million in 2007 and 1.1 million in 2006.
"[E]conomic risk is also rapidly rising: California, Nevada and Rhode Island stand out as being among the top 10 states for both price depreciation and highest unemployment," Fleming said. "Until home prices and economic activity stabilize, mortgage distress will remain high."
If analyzed beyond the state level, First American CoreLogic's report shows that nine of the top ten "core based statistical areas" that experienced the highest home depreciation in 2008, were located in California — with Salinas, CA posting the highest home price depreciation of over 30 percent.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, those areas that experienced the highest home price appreciation included Binghamton, NY — at 7.78 percent appreciation — Plattsburgh, NY, Cedar Rapids, IA, Rocky Mount, NC, and College Station, TX.
Write to Kelly Curran at kelly.curran@housingwire.com.
Disclosure: The author held no relevant investment positions when this story was published. Indirect holdings may exist via mutual fund investments. HW reporters and writers follow a strict disclosure policy, the first in the mortgage trade.
Government-sponsored entity Freddie Mac (FRE: 0.00 N/A) on Friday filed a report with the Securities and Exchange Commission acknowledging the Federal Housing Finance Agency, acting as Freddie's conservator, will soon request an additional $30 to $35 billion from the Treasury Department under the $100 billion senior preferred stock purchase agreement, through which the Treasury is required to provide funds whenever Freddie reports a negative net worth. Freddie drew $13.8 billion under the agreement when it reported weak third-quarter results in November, suggesting a trend of increasingly great financial need.
On the same day Freddie's filing hinted at growing federal need, reports came out of Fannie Mae (FNM: 0.00 N/A) that the banking giant cut hundreds of local jobs from its Washington headquarters even as it added staff "elsewhere" to manage an influx of defaults and foreclosure threats, according to a report published Friday by Bloomberg. Fannie similarly faces the conservatorship by the government, and participation with the other GSEs in the Federal Reserve's agency mortgage-backed security purchasing program.
The only agency appearing to report growth while the others struggle with cutbacks and funds shortages is Ginnie Mae, which has touted issuance that surpassed both Fannie and Freddie in the latter months of 2008. Ginnie has been reported in discussions with President Obama for an increase in staff to help manage the influx in mortgage-backed securities issuance. Ginnie's president, Joseph Murin, told American Banker last week the company is seeking 30 full-time staffers to supplement the 61 individuals currently employed — a 50 percent increase in staff.
With the wealth of evidence supporting Ginnie's growth, it seems unlikely it would be the agency with the smallest presence on the Fed's book of MBS purchases. According to data published Friday by the Fed, Ginnie has received the promise of $4.25 billion in MBS purchases so far through the program, while Fannie and Freddie enjoy $20.2 billion and $28.17 billion, respectively. It's unclear now whether the Fed's purchases — not all of which have completed — demonstrate Ginnie's ability to operate without government funds. With more than $447 billion left in its MBS purchase program, the Fed's spending actions going forward are likely to reflect which agency bears the greatest need.
Write to Diana Golobay at diana.golobay@housingwire.com.
Disclosure: The author held no relevant investment positions when this story was published. Indirect holdings may exist via mutual fund investments. HW reporters and writers follow a strict disclosure policy, the first in the mortgage trade.
Existing-home sales jumped 6.5 percent in December to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.74 million, led by a surge of sales in the West, the National Association of Realtors reported Monday.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said home prices continue to fall significantly. “It appears some buyers are taking advantage of much lower home prices,” he said. “The higher monthly sales gain and falling inventory are steps in the right direction, but the market is still far from normal balanced conditions. Buyers will continue to have an edge over sellers for the foreseeable future.”
Total housing inventory at the end of December fell 11.7 percent to 3.68 million existing homes available for sale, NAR said, which represents a 9.3-month supply at the current sales pace, down from a 11.2-month supply in November. About 45 percent of December's transactions were distress sales — either a short sale or a home in foreclosure — made at discounted prices.
Single-family home sales rose 7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.26 million in December, while condo sales increased 2.1 percent to 480,000. For all of 2008, single-family sales fell nearly 12 percent to 4.35 million, while condo sales dropped 21 percent to 563,000.
For 2008 as a whole, sales fell 13.1 percent to 4.91 million, NAR said. November and December were the weakest sales months of the year on a seasonally adjusted basis.
When broken down by region, NAR found that existing-home sales in the Northeast slipped a mere 1.4 percent in December, while sales in the Midwest and South increased. Existing-home sales in the West lead the way, jumping 13.6 percent to an annual rate of 1.25 million, a whopping 31.6 percent higher than a year ago. The median home price in the West was $213,100, down 31.5 percent from December 2007.
Write to Kelly Curran at kelly.curran@housingwire.com.
Disclosure: The author held no relevant investment positions when this story was published. Indirect holdings may exist via mutual fund investments. HW reporters and writers follow a strict disclosure policy, the first in the mortgage trade.
The Real Estate Business Services Inc. announced last week announced a partnership with ForeclosureRadar, through which all California Association of Realtors (CAR) members may receive the online foreclosure-tracking software at a discounted rate. Discovery Bay, Calif.-based ForeclosureRadar provides professional investors with accurate, timely, up-to-date information on the foreclosure market. “With foreclosures in some counties representing approximately 50 percent of the listings, ForeclosureRadar is an invaluable tool to help Realtors thrive in the current marketplace,” said chairwoman Liz Fitzgerald. www.car.org
Compliance tools aim to help lenders at closing
McLean, Va.-based Mortgage Banking Systems Inc. announced last week the addition of ComplianceAnalyzer to its ProClose Platinum loan closing platform, ensuring any loan in ProClose Platinum now faces scrutiny for strict regulatory compliance. With the addition of ComplianceAnalyzer, the platform now delivers "maximum lender protection" by connecting seamlessly with industry compliance analysis technology. "Non-compliance with federal, state or local 'high-cost,' anti-predatory lending laws, state regulations and investor compliance guidelines are the most common reasons for repurchase requests," said Christine Kirby, president of Mortgage Banking Systems. www.proclose.com
Loss mitigator adds staff to manage modifications
Foothill Ranch, Calif.-based National Loan Resolution Services, Inc. (NLRS) announced last week it had added personnel to assist with an influx of loss mitigation services it provides to lenders, servicers and private investors. NLRS specializes in loan modification, a form of loss mitigation through which the terms of the mortgage are modified to increase affordability for the homeowner, ensuring the lender receives a return on his or her investment. "We feel that in today's housing crisis, that loss mitigation is the best solution for the lender and the homeowner," said Mahnaz Lakelieh, a new member of NLRS' management team. "Foreclosures are … costly events that destroy real estate values because of the fire sales associated with them." www.nlrservice.com
eLynx updates platform to provide increased lender control
Cincinnati, Ohio-based eLynx last week announced updates to its expedite platform, which provides loan processing and documentation management capabilities in a streamlined, electronic process. The portfolio company out of American Capital Ltd. (ACAS: 8.18 -0.37%) announced the enhancements are built into electronic loan folders that allow lenders to more precisely control over the process workflow. “One of the outcomes of the financial crisis is increased focus on reducing costs and improving efficiency,” said president and CEO Sharon Matthews. “This requires lenders to take better control of their processes and to increase workflow automation. These enhancements to expedite will make it possible for lenders to accomplish that.” www.elynx.com
Write to Diana Golobay at diana.golobay@housingwire.com.
Disclosure: The author held no relevant investment positions when this story was published. Indirect holdings may exist via mutual fund investments. HW reporters and writers follow a strict disclosure policy, the first in the mortgage trade.
(Update 1)
Key industry analysts have been raising a red flag in the past few weeks regarding the possible impact of a plan that would allow bankruptcy judges to modify the terms of mortgages during debt restructuring, suggesting that allowing so-called cramdowns to take place will likely lead to further significant write-downs in an already battered secondary mortgage market — leaving banks with even larger-than-expected holes on their balance sheets.
Analysts at Bank of America (BAC: 7.29 -0.14%), while suggesting on Jan. 13 that such provisions would likely lead to a spike in bankruptcy filings, also said that aspects of the proposed bankrupcy law would serve to limit potential investor losses. In particular, the legislation as proposed establishes a floor on how much debt could be crammed down by a judge, while the fact that all assets must be disclosed to the court in filing for bankruptcy would prevent borrowers from going BK purely to obtain a lower payment.
Nonetheless, many analysts remain concerned. Bloomberg's Jody Shenn noted in a Jan. 12 story that analysts at Keefe, Bruyette and Woods projected that the cram-down legislation would speed losses to most MBS investors, driving downgrades anew and placing banks under renewed capital pressure.
There are other issues to be considered here, of course, that are more nuanced. Among them is the role of private mortgage insurers, who generally will not cover losses tied to a borrower bankruptcy. Bank of America analysts called attention to this issue on Jan. 21 — and it's a vital issue for any investor. Here's why: most MBS deals using mortgage insurance as a form of credit enhancement have thinner "padding" for investor losses, meaning that cram-downs would eat through overcollateralization at a faster rate for MI-enhanced deals than for other MBS deals. (Can you spell d-o-w-n-g-r-a-d-e?)
And just think of the perverse incentives here, too: on a mortgage involving MI, the servicer and investor must get the MI provider to sign off on any loan modification — how likely will the MI provider be to do so, when they just push losses directly onto the investor via a borrower bankruptcy?
Bloomberg's Shenn addressed the ongoing buzz among analysts again earlier this week, noting that a good number of private-party MBS deals — viturally every prime and Alt-A deal done — also have so-called "carve-out provisions" in them that allocate some bankruptcy losses among all investors, rather than the traditional bottom-up, first-loss approach traditionally seen in most structured deals.
There is upside here, however, as analysts at BofA, and Barclays Capital have all noted in recent weeks: the downside risk of bankruptcy as contemplated under the proposed change would be so severe for investors and servicers that both parties would likely have a strong (and perhaps perverse) incentive to modify loans, without having to worry about violating the terms of the pooling and servicing agreements that bind their efforts. Of course, the question is which investors and what kind of securities, as always.
But the bottom line to be gleaned from the above is this: there is always a law of unintended consequences when large-scale and complex changes are contemplated by regulatory and government agencies. Cram-downs are clearly no exception.
Write to Paul Jackson at paul.jackson@housingwire.com.
Disclosure: The author held no relevant investment positions when this story was published. Indirect holdings may exist via mutual fund investments. HW reporters and writers follow a strict disclosure policy, the first in the mortgage trade.
The Treasury Department on Thursday released details regarding more than $27.9 billion invested in banks and financial institutions on Jan. 16 through the Troubled Asset Relief Program. The largest transaction for Jan. 16 involved $20 billion given to Bank of America Corp. (BAC: 7.29 -0.14%) through the targeted investment program, while the smallest involved a $1.7 million injection in Oakland, Calif.-based privately-held Community Bank of the Bay through the capital purchase program (CPP).
Transactions listed for Jan. 16 include a $20 billion capital injection in BofA, to help it absorb losses incurred from acquiring Merrill Lynch's assets. It was the third transaction with BofA; the first occurred Oct. 28 when the bank received its initial $15 billion through the capital purchase program, while the second occurred much later, on Jan. 9, in the form of $10 billion originally earmarked for Merrill Lynch & Co. but deferred pending the merger and granted in BofA's name after the acquisition completed Jan. 1. The final $20 billion purchase occurred under the targeted investment program, a relatively new vehicle originally established to give Citigroup Inc. (C: 30.87 +1.61%) its second infusion (also $20 billion).
Jan. 16 also saw Chrysler Financial Services Americas LLC — the financing arm of Chrysler Holding LLC — receive the promise of a $1.5 billion loan through the automotive industry financing program, which "will be incrementally funded," according to the Treasury. Citi was also listed on the 16th as receiving up to $5 billion through a new asset guarantee program — part of a government loss-sharing initiative announced Nov. 23.
The Treasury so far has allocated $193.8 billion through the capital purchase program and has nearly $56.2 billion left in the $250 billion originally reserved for the program through the first TARP installment. Accounting for all of the $250 billion spent — as interim assistant secretary Neel Kashkari and secretary Henry Paulson have repeatedly said "thousands" of CPP applications await review — and including loans and asset guarantees, the Treasury has spent approximately $355.8 billion through TARP so far.
The rise of the privately-held institution
The Treasury on Nov. 17 released information regarding the participation of privately-held financial institutions in the TARP, and the number of transactions with privately-held firms within the CPP has grown ever since. The data reported Thursday shows that of the 42 transactions made Jan. 16, 39 were made under the CPP. Of those 39 injections, 20 were made to privately-held institutions. This ratio — more than 51 percent — of injections given to private firms over publicly-traded institutions marks the first date the daily TARP fund provisions favor private firms in the CPP.
The data show that transactions taking place at privately-held firms accounted for 37 percent of CPP transactions made on Jan. 9, while they made up 46.5 percent of CPP transactions on Dec. 23 and only 28.5 percent of CPP transactions on Dec. 19. In other words, the participation of private firms in TARP as a percentage of regular transactions has nearly doubled (from 28.5 percent to 51 percent) in a month. The percentage of funds granted to private institutions is significantly lower overall simply because of the reach of those institutions.
Write to Diana Golobay at diana.golobay@housingwire.com.
Disclosure: The author held no relevant investment positions when this story was published. Indirect holdings may exist via mutual fund investments. HW reporters and writers follow a strict disclosure policy, the first in the mortgage trade.
In a matter of hours, John Thain — who stepped down Thursday from his position as president of global banking and wealth-management at the newly combined Bank of America Corp. (BAC: 7.29 -0.14%) and Merrill Lynch & Co. — was replaced by Bank of America's General Counsel Brian Moynihan.
The naming of Brian Moynihan, 49, as Thain's replacement might suggest Charlotte-based Bank of America is now firmly in control of Merrill after an attempted power-sharing agreement with Thain. Moynihan is considered one of several possible successors for the 61-year-old Lewis, should he retire; Although, Lewis has said he would remain CEO until at least 2010.
Bank of America isn't offering details surrounding the resignation of Thain, who was reportedly asked to step-down by CEO Ken Lewis in a short meeting Thursday. The only public mention of Thain's resignation came in press release announcing Moynihan's appointment: "Moynihan replaces John Thain who is leaving the company," the press release read. That was the extent of it.
John Thain, 53, received wide-spread praise on Wall Street after agreeing in September to sell troubled securities firm Merrill, which was on shaky ground because of a crisis of confidence among investors and partners. But after repeatedly underestimating Merrill's capital needs, observers began to question Thain's credibility. Most recently, Merrill posted a $15.31 billion quarterly-loss, causing Bank of America to seek additional aid from the government, as Thain allegedly lobbied behind the scenes for a multimillion dollar bonus.
According to CNBC, Thain even hired famed decorator Michael Smith — chosen by the the Obama family to decorate the White House — to redecorate his downtown Manhattan office last year at a cost of $837,000, during a time when his company was processing lay-offs.
Bloomberg reported Lewis began to lose confidence in Thain in December, when he learned of Merrill’s larger than expected loss from members of his own merger team, according to a person familiar with Lewis. Lewis indicated that he thought Thain should have been more proactive in keeping him apprised of the results, according to this person, Bloomberg said.
Bank of America emphasized in their announcement Thursday that the "change in leadership in no way reflects a significant change in direction for the Global Banking or wealth management units." And Lewis expressed the utmost confidence in Moynihan to successfully carry-out the position's duties.
Previous to the merger with Merrill Lynch, Moynihan ran Global Corporate and Investment Banking for Bank of America. Before that, he was President of Global Wealth and Investment Management at the company.
"Brian Moynihan is a strong manager and one of those people who can effectively envision strategy and execute," Lewis said. "He has excelled at everything we have asked him to do."
Write to Kelly Curran at kelly.curran@housingwire.com.
Disclosure: The author held no relevant investment positions when this story was published. Indirect holdings may exist via mutual fund investments. HW reporters and writers follow a strict disclosure policy, the first in the mortgage trade.
The number of mortgages 90 or more days delinquent continued to rise at Freddie Mac (FRE: 0.00 N/A) during December 2008, reaching 1.72 percent of the GSE's total single-family mortgage portfolio, the company reported Friday morning. That's a jump of 62.2 percent from year-ago levels, and up 20 basis points from a 1.52 percent level reported for November 2008 — not surprisingly, as the nation's housing woes have spread, Freddie Mac has posted a monthly rise in delinquencies throughout the entirety of last year.
Freddie, who along with sister mortgage financing giant Fannie Mae (FNM: 0.00 N/A) was siezed by regulators in Sept. 2008, saw its holdings of mortgage-related investments shrink at a 1 percent annualized rate in December, as a slowing purchase volume was offset by a jump in net sales activity. The mortgage giant saw the aggregate unpaid principal balance of its retained portfolio decline to $804.76 billion at the end of Dec., despite a drop in Freddie's rate of liquidations during the month.
Despite the portfolio shrinkage, Freddie said it entered into $25.3 billion in net mortgage purchase and sale agreements during the month, the highest level of commitments since June of last year and well above the $14.97 billion in commitments during November 2008.
As it has throughout 2008, Freddie also continued to add to the whole loans held in its retained portfolio, while also continuing to shrink away from the non-agency MBS market; holdings of private-party MBS fell from $199.8 billion in Nov. to $197.9 billion during Dec., Freddie said; that number is well below the $233.8 billion the GSE held one year earlier.
Slowing purchases may have been a foreshadowing of a pickup in Federal Reserve-led buying of agency securities to start 2009, as the Fed began a program this month to purchase $500 billion in agency securities over the next two quarters.
The Fed purchased more than $19 billion in agency mortgage-backed securities for the week ending Jan. 21, bringing total agency MBS purchases to $52.6 billion so far this year. See full story.
Write to Paul Jackson at paul.jackson@housingwire.com.
Disclosure: The author held no relevant investment positions when this story was published. Indirect holdings may exist via mutual fund investments. HW reporters and writers follow a strict disclosure policy, the first in the mortgage trade.












