Current Issue
Twelve of the twenty trading ABX indices hit new all time lows Friday. While the credit crunch has moved well outside of subprime credit, the newest plunge in ABX closing prices suggests that the sector that started it all isn’t yet in the clear.
All series in the ABX are trending down irrespective of whether a new low was reached today or not; today’s news of a late downgrade at Ambac (do they ever come any other way?) isn’t likely to alleviate any of the downward pressure when trading resumes next week.
Much of the devaluation is centered on 2007 series indices, with 8 of the 10 available 2007 indices reaching record lows Friday; notable among the group was the drop in the AAA series, which tracks against the highest-rated, investment grade tranches. Both the 2007-1 AAA and 2007-2 AAA series hit new lows of 65.88 and 68.36, respectively — and even after a year of watching this, seeing AAA credits trade for sixty-some-odd cents on the dollar never ceases to be amazing.
For posterity’s sake, here’s the 2007-2 AAA pricing trend (click for larger image):
Are we resuming the race to zero here, all over again?
Update: The CMBX is having its own pity party as well; see Calculated Risk.
